William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.5#333
Expected Predictive Rating-19.5#353
Pace71.6#112
Improvement+0.8#107

Offense
Total Offense-7.0#343
First Shot-7.8#345
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#124
Layup/Dunks+0.5#144
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#341
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#310
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement+0.9#84

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#305
First Shot-2.5#263
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#292
Layups/Dunks-4.2#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows+1.2#115
Improvement-0.1#191
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 4.7% 2.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 67.7% 52.9% 68.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Navy (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 111 - 15
Quad 44 - 115 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 87   @ Wake Forest L 59-77 4%     0 - 1 -8.8 -11.5 +3.4
  Nov 12, 2021 321   American L 62-74 52%     0 - 2 -24.0 -22.3 -0.8
  Nov 16, 2021 251   @ Norfolk St. L 74-91 18%     0 - 3 -18.8 -2.4 -15.4
  Nov 20, 2021 140   Georgia St. L 59-77 11%     0 - 4 -16.2 -19.4 +4.5
  Nov 21, 2021 312   Howard L 76-82 39%     0 - 5 -14.5 -7.9 -6.3
  Nov 24, 2021 247   @ Radford L 54-67 18%     0 - 6 -14.6 -13.0 -2.7
  Dec 01, 2021 102   @ Navy L 57-76 3%    
  Dec 04, 2021 84   @ Davidson L 58-79 3%    
  Dec 07, 2021 234   Old Dominion L 62-67 32%    
  Dec 09, 2021 338   Hampton W 72-68 65%    
  Dec 12, 2021 239   Fairfield L 65-70 34%    
  Dec 22, 2021 201   @ Valparaiso L 61-74 12%    
  Dec 29, 2021 131   Hofstra L 68-79 16%    
  Dec 31, 2021 149   Northeastern L 60-70 19%    
  Jan 05, 2022 268   @ Elon L 68-77 21%    
  Jan 09, 2022 282   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 11, 2022 202   @ College of Charleston L 74-87 13%    
  Jan 15, 2022 164   James Madison L 68-77 22%    
  Jan 17, 2022 169   Towson L 65-73 23%    
  Jan 20, 2022 162   @ Delaware L 66-81 9%    
  Jan 22, 2022 168   @ Drexel L 62-76 10%    
  Jan 29, 2022 268   Elon L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 03, 2022 202   College of Charleston L 77-84 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 282   UNC Wilmington L 67-69 43%    
  Feb 10, 2022 169   @ Towson L 62-76 10%    
  Feb 12, 2022 164   @ James Madison L 65-80 10%    
  Feb 17, 2022 168   Drexel L 65-73 23%    
  Feb 19, 2022 162   Delaware L 69-78 22%    
  Feb 24, 2022 149   @ Northeastern L 57-73 9%    
  Feb 26, 2022 131   @ Hofstra L 65-82 7%    
Projected Record 5 - 25 3 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.6 4.0 1.5 0.1 10.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 5.8 8.0 5.8 1.9 0.3 23.5 9th
10th 5.3 13.1 16.1 13.0 6.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 55.8 10th
Total 5.3 13.3 17.8 19.0 15.8 11.5 7.8 4.9 2.3 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 16.7% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.3% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
8-10 2.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-11 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.8
6-12 7.8% 7.8
5-13 11.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
4-14 15.8% 15.8
3-15 19.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.0
2-16 17.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.8
1-17 13.3% 13.3
0-18 5.3% 5.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%