William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +1.2 138
Results Rating +1.1 141
Consistency 0.14 107
Pace 80.6 5
Improvement -3.1 299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 131 B- C- C B B+
Defense C 175 C- C B B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 60 B- 63% 77 +4.7 34
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 329 C 37% 198 -3.4 332
Three Pointers 45% 95 C- 33% 245 +1.1 146
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 26 C+ +0.9 132
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 99
Second Chance D 25.5% 311 B 1.14 50 C- 0.29 227
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 251
Other Turnovers C+ 6.7% 114
Turnovers C 16.8% 183
Freethrows B 0.34 64 B- 75% 93 B 0.26 53
Total Offense C+ +1.4 131

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots B 58% 37 C 10.7% 166
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 80 D+ 7.0% 300
Three Pointers A- 93% 13 C- 1.0% 232
Total A- 67% 17 C- 5.9% 223


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 239 D+ 62% 297 +0.6 203
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 334 C- 40% 250 -1.6 58
Three Pointers 47% 26 C+ 33% 137 +2.8 309
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 266 C- +1.1 221
1st FG Attempt C- 1.06 234
Second Chance C 30.1% 174 C 1.05 210 C 0.32 198
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.8% 82
Other Turnovers B 8.3% 65
Turnovers B 19.1% 55
Freethrows B- 0.28 109 B- 70% 76 B- 0.20 88
Total Defense C -0.2 175

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 216 C 11.4% 153
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 292 C 4.7% 187
Three Pointers C 84% 185 B- 1.4% 75
Total D+ 59% 266 C 5.6% 174

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 13.7 1 18.6 337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 20 0.16 140
Consistency 0.11 83 0.11 55
Improvement +0.2 173 -3.3 328

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 155 140 123
Results Rating Rank 171 143 99
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 10 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 4
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 13
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8% 9% 6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round8% 9% 6%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 34 - 66 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 308 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 75% -4  15% 1 - 0 C- -3 D+ -4 D+ A+ F C+ +1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 134 @Richmond L 86 - 90 37% -1  31% 1 - 1 C +1 B- +4 D+ C A+ C- -3 A+ F A
 Sat, Nov 15 20 @St. John's L 60 - 93 4% -15  0% 1 - 2 D- -12 F -11 D A+ F B- +3 C B+ C
 Wed, Nov 19 166 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 45% +9  87% 2 - 2 B +10 C +1 B C F A +9 A D- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 260 UTEP W 74 - 63 74% +8  99% 3 - 2 B- +5 D- -6 C+ D- F A+ +11 A+ F+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 236 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 70% +12  95% 4 - 2 A+ +30 A +12 A+ B- A- A+ +16 B A- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 241 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 79% +7  85% 5 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 B F+ C- B+ +5 C+ A- A-
 Tue, Dec 2 120 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 32% +8  92% 6 - 2 B +10 C+ +3 A+ F F B+ +7 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 80 @George Washington L 86 - 99 19% -4  22% 6 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 B- B B- D -6 D+ D F+
 Thu, Dec 18 244 Radford W 96 - 83 80% +3  56% 7 - 3 B- +5 C+ +4 D B+ A C+ +0 B- D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 175 Towson W 84 - 70 69% +8  70% 8 - 3 1 - 0 B +10 A- +10 A+ F B C+ +0 D A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 218 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 76% +6  91% 9 - 3 2 - 0 B+ +13 B- +4 A+ D- D A +10 A- A+ B
 Mon, Jan 5 147 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 40% -6  13% 9 - 4 2 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 F C+ A+ C+ +1 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 179 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 48% -3  25% 9 - 5 2 - 2 D -9 D -5 D+ B F D+ -4 D+ F D
 Sat, Jan 10 212 @Drexel L 58 - 64 55% -5  1% 9 - 6 2 - 3 D+ -6 F -11 D- F F B +5 F B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 273 N.C. A&T W 97 - 89 84% +7  95% 10 - 6 3 - 3 C -1 B+ +8 A+ C- C F+ -10 F C A
 Thu, Jan 22 107 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 70 51% +11  98% 11 - 6 4 - 3 B- +8 C- -1 C+ C- C+ A +8 A B+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 104 Hofstra W 89 - 82 50% +5  67% 12 - 6 5 - 3 B +8 A+ +18 A A- A+ F+ -9 C D F
 Thu, Jan 29 232 @Elon L 76 - 79 59% +4  76% 12 - 7 5 - 4 C- -4 C +1 C+ D- F+ D -5 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 195 Campbell L 96 - 104 73% -13  0% 12 - 8 5 - 5 D- -13 B +6 B+ B- C- F -18 F A D
 Thu, Feb 5 107 @UNC Wilmington W 85 - 78 29% -2  31% 13 - 8 6 - 5 B+ +14 A+ +16 C A+ C- C- -2 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 264 @Hampton L 74 - 77 65% +1  50% 13 - 9 6 - 6 D+ -6 D+ -2 D+ C- C- D+ -3 D F D+
 Thu, Feb 12 293 @Northeastern W 94 - 67 72% +11  99% 14 - 9 7 - 6 A +22 A+ +15 A+ C A A- +7 A F C
 Sat, Feb 14 232 Elon L 78 - 81 79% -1  29% 14 - 10 7 - 7 D -10 D -5 D+ F C D -5 B+ D F
 Thu, Feb 19 195 @Campbell L 83 - 84 51% +2  62% 14 - 11 7 - 8 C -0 C+ +2 B+ F D+ C- -2 C+ F+ D+
 Thu, Feb 26 293 Northeastern W 84 - 77 87% +3  64% 15 - 11 8 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 F F A+ B +4 D D A+
 Sat, Feb 28 273 @N.C. A&T W 91 - 88 67% +4  91% 16 - 11 9 - 8 C -0 B +6 C+ D- A+ D- -7 F B- A
 Tue, Mar 3 264 Hampton W 81 - 71 82%
Totals 17 - 11 10 - 8 +1 C+ +1 F+ C+ B+ C +0 C- B- B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ B- C C- C+ 43% 23% 45% B+ B- D B C- C B B- B C D+ C- C+ C- 37% 16% 47% D+ C- C C C B B- B- B-
1.11 63% 37% 33% +1 +1 1.07 26% 1.1 .29 17% .34 75% .26 1.09 62% 40% 33% +1 +1 1.06 30% 1.0 .32 19% .28 70% .24
Nov
8		 Norfolk St. D+ F+ A+ C- D- 42% 2% 56% B+ D+ D+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A+ C+ C B F F 40% 12% 48% F F D+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F
1.05 53% 100% 32% -3 +3 1.02 30% 1.7 .52 22% .57 71% .40 1.01 55% 33% 46% +7 +1 1.18 33% 0.4 .12 25% .54 55% .29
Nov
11		 Richmond B- A B- F+ D+ 17% 21% 62% C- D+ F+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A F A+ A+ 33% 8% 59% F A+ F D- F A F C F
1.11 70% 42% 28% -3 -2 0.93 23% 1.6 .35 9% .44 81% .36 1.16 47% 50% 27% -9 +1 0.86 45% 1.1 .51 19% .74 76% .56
Nov
15		 St. John's F F F+ F D- 34% 14% 52% B- D C+ A+ A+ F F+ F F B- D+ F A+ C+ 50% 10% 40% D- C C- A B+ C A- B+ A
0.75 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 29% 1.5 .42 30% .21 42% .09 1.16 61% 67% 24% -2 +2 1.03 39% 0.9 .37 14% .32 68% .22
Nov
19		 Bowling Green C A- D D+ B- 43% 6% 51% A- B D+ B- C F A A+ A+ A B F A+ A+ 54% 8% 38% F+ A C F D- A+ F D- F
1.05 67% 33% 32% +2 +2 1.10 25% 1.1 .28 23% .40 88% .35 0.95 52% 75% 16% -11 +3 0.86 27% 1.1 .30 23% .45 78% .35
Nov
24		 UTEP D- B- B- C- C 43% 14% 43% A- C+ D+ F+ D- F C D+ C- A+ B A A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% F A+ D+ F F+ B+ C+ C+ C+
1.00 62% 43% 33% +2 +1 1.08 30% 0.9 .27 26% .36 70% .26 0.85 52% 25% 17% -16 0 0.70 28% 1.3 .35 20% .26 67% .17
Nov
25		 Abilene Christian A A+ A+ C A+ 55% 15% 30% B A+ D+ A+ B- A- B+ D- C+ A+ D D A+ B 31% 23% 46% B- B D A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+
1.23 85% 57% 36% +18 +2 1.43 24% 1.4 .33 19% .49 67% .33 0.78 63% 42% 21% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.6 .20 28% .32 35% .11
Nov
30		 Old Dominion C- A A+ F B 43% 16% 41% B- B D F F+ C- A+ A+ A+ B+ D C- A+ B 36% 13% 51% F C+ A+ F A- A- A F B-
1.11 73% 63% 24% +4 +1 1.12 27% 0.8 .20 15% .45 83% .37 0.95 64% 38% 26% -4 +1 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 20% .21 92% .19
Dec
2		 Duquesne C+ B F A+ A+ 37% 8% 55% A A+ F F F F F A+ D- B+ C F A+ A 40% 4% 56% D A- F F F A+ F C+ F+
1.08 63% 25% 50% +14 +2 1.33 15% 0.8 .11 23% .24 86% .20 1.03 60% 50% 25% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.5 .61 27% .43 71% .30
Dec
6		 George Washington B- B+ F D- C 52% 9% 40% A B- C- A+ B B- C+ A B D F F A+ C- 56% 3% 41% F+ D+ D+ D+ D F+ D F+ F+
1.11 67% 20% 30% +1 +3 1.09 27% 1.3 .36 17% .29 79% .23 1.27 73% 100% 25% +5 +3 1.19 40% 1.1 .46 14% .36 79% .28
Dec
18		 Radford C+ B- F F F+ 60% 5% 35% A+ D C A+ B+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ F B- B 28% 8% 63% D+ B- D+ F+ D- C+ C+ B B
1.19 62% 0% 25% -5 +3 1.00 33% 1.3 .44 14% .45 87% .39 1.03 41% 60% 32% -5 +1 0.93 31% 1.2 .36 19% .34 68% .23
Dec
29		 Towson A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 15% 43% B A+ D- F F B A D+ B+ C+ F+ C B- D 33% 24% 43% D D B A+ A+ C- C+ A+ B+
1.20 64% 63% 43% +12 +1 1.28 21% 0.3 .07 13% .35 67% .23 1.00 67% 38% 30% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.5 .16 16% .27 56% .15
Dec
31		 Stony Brook B- B A+ A+ A+ 39% 9% 52% B+ A+ D+ F+ D- D A A A+ A F A+ A A- 24% 14% 63% B- A- F A+ A+ B A F B
1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30 0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15
Jan
5		 College of Charleston D A+ F F F 20% 31% 49% F+ F D A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F A+ F F 25% 26% 49% A- F A- A+ A+ A+ F D- F
0.96 85% 5% 22% -14 -3 0.69 25% 1.2 .31 7% .33 80% .26 1.07 92% 21% 38% +7 -2 1.13 24% 0.8 .18 23% .46 79% .36
Jan
8		 Monmouth D C+ B F D+ 40% 24% 36% D+ D+ C+ A- B F C- F F D+ F A+ F+ D+ 34% 23% 43% C- D+ C- F F D C+ A+ B+
0.97 60% 42% 28% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.2 .38 24% .27 47% .13 1.12 67% 17% 39% +1 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .43 15% .28 65% .18
Jan
10		 Drexel F C- F F F 45% 15% 40% A- D- D F F F F C- F+ B F+ F+ F F 44% 22% 34% C- F C- A+ B+ A+ C B+ C+
0.87 54% 25% 24% -10 +1 0.85 26% 0.7 .18 20% .22 75% .17 0.96 67% 44% 50% +13 0 1.29 31% 0.6 .19 29% .27 62% .17
Jan
15		 N.C. A&T B+ B- C A+ A 62% 10% 29% A+ A+ F+ A+ C- C A+ C+ A+ F+ F F F F 41% 24% 35% D- F A- F C A D C+ D+
1.27 63% 40% 53% +11 +3 1.31 20% 1.3 .27 13% .47 71% .33 1.17 71% 58% 44% +16 0 1.33 24% 1.3 .32 24% .39 74% .29
Jan
22		 UNC Wilmington C- B- A+ F C- 37% 6% 58% A+ C+ F A+ C- C+ A+ C- A A A+ A+ B+ A+ 27% 12% 61% D- A C+ A- B+ A F B- F
1.06 63% 67% 27% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 14% .35 73% .26 0.96 38% 17% 30% -12 0 0.80 32% 0.9 .30 19% .56 67% .38
Jan
24		 Hofstra A+ B F A A 27% 11% 63% B+ A A- B A- A+ F A+ D F+ A- A+ F B- 35% 13% 53% F C F+ C D F B F C
1.33 60% 17% 40% +4 0 1.11 38% 1.1 .43 7% .21 85% .18 1.22 47% 14% 41% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.1 .41 12% .25 87% .22
Jan
29		 Elon C C- F B+ C- 40% 4% 56% A C+ D- C D- F+ D+ A- C- D C C+ D+ C 53% 6% 42% F+ C- B- F D+ F A- A A
1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21 1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15
Jan
31		 Campbell B B+ A+ F B- 67% 9% 24% A+ B+ F+ A+ B- C- A+ B+ A+ F F F+ F F 45% 13% 43% C F C- A+ A D F D- F
1.22 68% 50% 27% +5 +4 1.20 24% 1.7 .40 18% .66 79% .52 1.32 76% 43% 46% +16 +1 1.38 35% 0.7 .24 15% .45 77% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 UNC Wilmington A+ F+ F A+ C- 43% 17% 40% A C A+ A+ A+ C- A+ C+ A+ C- F F F F 27% 25% 47% B- F A+ B- A+ B+ A A+ A+
1.26 50% 13% 42% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 15% .42 75% .31 1.16 71% 46% 46% +14 -1 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 18% .29 56% .16
Feb
7		 Hampton D+ B+ A+ F D- 55% 13% 32% A D+ F A+ C- C- A+ B A+ D+ C A+ F D 35% 28% 37% C D C- F F D+ F C+ F
1.04 69% 67% 7% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.6 .27 17% .54 72% .39 1.08 56% 23% 41% -1 -1 0.98 33% 1.3 .42 17% .52 71% .37
Feb
12		 Northeastern A+ B F A+ A+ 53% 13% 34% B+ A+ B- D C A D F F+ A- D- B A+ A 34% 17% 49% B- A B- F F C A+ F A
1.35 68% 14% 61% +16 +2 1.38 33% 0.9 .30 11% .31 63% .19 0.96 67% 33% 19% -9 0 0.85 24% 1.7 .41 17% .16 78% .12
Feb
14		 Elon D B- A+ F D 43% 13% 43% B+ D+ D- F F C A+ C- A+ D A A+ F+ A- 46% 13% 41% C B+ A+ F D F D+ C- D+
1.10 61% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 72% .30 1.14 46% 14% 39% -5 +2 0.95 21% 1.8 .37 8% .34 73% .25
Feb
19		 Campbell C+ A- A- B B+ 36% 19% 45% C B+ F F F D+ A+ C A+ C- A+ A+ F C 39% 11% 50% C+ C+ C F F+ D+ F C F
1.12 71% 44% 38% +8 0 1.19 21% 0.8 .18 19% .51 74% .38 1.13 33% 17% 44% -4 +1 0.96 34% 1.3 .44 16% .47 72% .34
Feb
26		 Northeastern F+ B F F F 61% 7% 31% A+ F F C F A+ A+ A A+ B D- B D+ D- 33% 16% 51% B- D A F D A+ A+ B- A+
1.05 67% 25% 12% -6 +3 0.96 6% 1.0 .06 10% .54 82% .45 0.96 67% 33% 36% +3 0 1.09 19% 1.8 .34 28% .16 67% .10
Feb
28		 N.C. A&T B A A+ F C 38% 15% 48% B- C+ F+ C- D- A+ A B- A D- F F D+ F 29% 37% 33% A F C+ B- B- A B+ B A-
1.21 70% 78% 24% +3 +1 1.10 19% 1.0 .19 7% .40 71% .28 1.17 93% 63% 35% +20 -3 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 24% .30 71% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 25.7 25.7 4th
5th 47.9 47.9 5th
6th 8.5 8.8 17.3 6th
7th 9.1 9.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 17.6 82.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 82.4% 8.7% 8.7% 12.9 0.0 1.5 4.9 0.8 0.0 75.2
9-9 17.6% 6.0% 6.0% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 16.5
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 13.0 91.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.2% 100.0% 12.9 0.1 20.3 68.3 11.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.6%
Lose Out 7.1%