William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #149
Expected Predictive Rating +1.8 #133
Pace 81.4 #5
Improvement -2.8 #301

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #143 B- C- C- C+ B+
Defense #165 C C+ B C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #83 1.26 #76 +4.2 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #338 0.73 #223 -3.5 #336
Three Pointers 46% #73 1.00 #207 +2.2 #103
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #94 +2.9 #92
Freethrows 0.32 #138 75% #81 0.24 #110
Second Chance 26.0% #301 1.15 #43 0.30 #208
Turnovers 17.6% #225
Total Offense +0.8 #143

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #203 1.25 #299 -1.6 #229
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #353 0.77 #215 +2.5 #21
Three Pointers 48% #22 0.94 #74 -1.8 #269
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #207 -0.9 #207
Freethrows 0.29 #133 71% #92 0.20 #114
Second Chance 31.4% #216 0.94 #68 0.30 #131
Turnovers 19.4% #57
Total Defense -0.2 #165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #26 1.7% #319
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #129 0.1% #185
Possession Length 13.4 #2 18.4 #330
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #30 0.16 #138
Improvement +0.8 #135 -3.6 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.6% 14.9% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.4
.500 or above 97.2% 99.8% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 95.8% 81.1%
Conference Champion 1.2% 3.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round11.6% 14.9% 10.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Away) - 31.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 35 - 66 - 9
Quad 412 - 318 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 308 @Norfolk St. W 81 - 78 73% -4  1 - 0 -3 -0 D+ A+ F -3 F A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 138 @Richmond L 86 - 90 36% -1  1 - 1 +0 +6 C- C A+ -5 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 18 @St. John's L 60 - 93 4% -15  1 - 2 -12 -10 D- A+ F +2 C A- C-
 Wed, Nov 19 147 @Bowling Green W 82 - 74 38% +9  2 - 2 +12 +4 B C- F+ +7 A+ D A+
 Mon, Nov 24 251 UTEP W 74 - 63 71% +8  3 - 2 +6 -3 B- D- F +8 A+ F+ B+
 Tue, Nov 25 268 Abilene Christian W 92 - 58 74% +12  4 - 2 +28 +12 A+ C B+ +14 B A- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 260 Old Dominion W 88 - 75 81% +7  5 - 2 +4 +1 B F+ C- +2 C B A-
 Tue, Dec 2 106 @Duquesne W 83 - 79 28% +8  6 - 2 +11 +6 A+ F F +4 A- F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 80 @George Washington L 86 - 99 19% -4  6 - 3 -3 +7 B- B- B- -9 D+ D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 18 233 Radford W 96 - 83 77% +3  7 - 3 +6 +5 D B A -1 B- D- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 157 Towson W 84 - 70 64% +8  8 - 3 1 - 0 +11 +12 A+ F B+ -1 D A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 31 218 Stony Brook W 76 - 57 74% +6  9 - 3 2 - 0 +13 +6 A+ D D +8 A- A+ B-
 Mon, Jan 5 152 @College of Charleston L 79 - 88 40% -6  9 - 4 2 - 1 -6 -4 F C A+ -1 F+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 8 213 @Monmouth L 70 - 81 53% -3  9 - 5 2 - 2 -11 -2 D+ B F+ -8 D F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 204 @Drexel L 58 - 64 52% -5  9 - 6 2 - 3 -6 -8 D- F D- +2 F B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 279 N.C. A&T W 97 - 89 84% +7  10 - 6 3 - 3 -2 +11 A+ C C -13 F C A-
 Thu, Jan 22 116 UNC Wilmington W 77 - 70 52% +11  11 - 6 4 - 3 +7 +1 C C- C +6 A B+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 126 Hofstra W 89 - 82 56% +5  12 - 6 5 - 3 +6 +18 A- B A+ -12 C D+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 194 @Elon L 76 - 79 49% +4  12 - 7 5 - 4 -2 +4 C+ D D- -7 C C- F
 Sat, Jan 31 217 Campbell L 96 - 104 74% -13  12 - 8 5 - 5 -14 +7 B C+ C -20 F A- D
 Thu, Feb 5 116 @UNC Wilmington L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 256 @Hampton W 78 - 75 60%
 Thu, Feb 12 257 @Northeastern W 89 - 86 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 194 Elon W 87 - 81 71%
 Thu, Feb 19 217 @Campbell W 87 - 86 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 257 Northeastern W 92 - 83 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 279 @N.C. A&T W 86 - 82 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 256 Hampton W 81 - 72 80%
Totals 17 - 11 10 - 8 +1 +1 B- C- C- +0 C C+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.5 0.7 1.2 1st
2nd 0.1 3.1 5.6 1.9 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.4 12.0 5.8 0.4 21.6 3rd
4th 1.0 11.7 6.7 0.5 19.9 4th
5th 4.8 10.0 1.0 15.8 5th
6th 0.5 8.5 2.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 3.0 4.6 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.3 3.6 1.0 4.9 8th
9th 1.1 2.0 0.0 3.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 0.4 2.2 10th
11th 0.6 0.9 1.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.8 4.0 9.4 19.9 27.5 22.8 12.4 3.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 23.6% 0.7    0.0 0.4 0.3
12-6 4.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 3.0% 23.3% 23.3% 12.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 2.3
12-6 12.4% 21.9% 21.9% 12.9 0.7 1.6 0.4 9.7
11-7 22.8% 15.5% 15.5% 13.3 0.4 1.9 1.1 0.2 19.2
10-8 27.5% 10.5% 10.5% 13.3 0.1 1.6 1.1 24.7
9-9 19.9% 5.9% 5.9% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 18.8
8-10 9.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 9.0
7-11 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0
6-12 0.8% 5.1% 5.1% 15.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 11.6% 11.6% 0.0% 13.3 88.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 12.4 5.7 52.9 41.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%