William & Mary
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.8 #119
Expected Predictive Rating +6.5 #84
Pace 83.5 #4
Improvement +0.6 #149

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #146 B C+ C C B
Defense #106 B- C+ C A- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.29 #60 +3.2 #84
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #323 0.72 #217 -3.0 #317
Three Pointers 47% #68 1.02 #173 +3.2 #85
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #89 +3.5 #87
Freethrows 17.7 #168 77% #64 13.5 #125
Second Chance 26.2% #300 1.18 #43 0.31 #201
Turnovers 17.1% #207
Total Offense +0.7 #146

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #212 1.23 #268 -0.8 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #354 0.78 #220 +2.5 #31
Three Pointers 49% #21 0.81 #13 +0.9 #157
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #99 +2.6 #99
Freethrows 16.0 #124 74% #229 11.8 #142
Second Chance 32.2% #244 0.98 #104 0.31 #174
Turnovers 19.8% #40
Total Defense +2.1 #106

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #59 1.7% #316
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.7% #113 -6.7% #68
Possession Length 13.3 #2 18.2 #320
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #26 0.16 #133
Improvement +0.4 #161 +0.2 #176

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 21.2% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 98.6% 99.5% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 97.2% 89.9%
Conference Champion 24.3% 30.8% 14.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.3% 21.2% 16.3%
Second Round1.7% 2.0% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 60.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 48 - 8
Quad 413 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 275 @Norfolk St. W 81-78 72%     -3.6   1 - 0 -0.4 +1.6 -2.2
  Tue, Nov 11 118 @Richmond L 86-90 38%     -1.2   1 - 1 +1.9 +6.7 -4.4
  Sat, Nov 15 23 @St. John's L 60-93 8%     -12.6   1 - 2 -14.3 -11.0 +0.8
  Wed, Nov 19 128 @Bowling Green W 82-74 41%     9.2   2 - 2 +13.2 +4.3 +8.0
  Mon, Nov 24 246 UTEP W 74-63 77%     7.9   3 - 2 +5.9 -4.0 +9.3
  Tue, Nov 25 211 Abilene Christian W 92-58 71%     11.6   4 - 2 +31.1 +13.8 +15.1
  Sun, Nov 30 252 Old Dominion W 88-75 85%     7.0   5 - 2 +4.6 +0.8 +2.3
  Tue, Dec 2 122 @Duquesne W 83-79 39%     7.8   6 - 2 +9.6 +4.4 +4.8
  Sat, Dec 6 68 @George Washington L 86-99 20%     -3.9   6 - 3 -1.5 +6.7 -6.8
  Thu, Dec 18 245 Radford W 96-83 84%     3.0   7 - 3 +5.2 +5.4 -2.0
  Mon, Dec 29 162 Towson W 84-70 73%     8.2   8 - 3 1 - 0 +10.6 +11.5 -0.9
  Wed, Dec 31 261 Stony Brook W 76-57 86%     6.3   9 - 3 2 - 0 +10.3 +5.5 +6.2
  Mon, Jan 5 150 @College of Charleston L 79-88 48%     -5.9   9 - 4 2 - 1 -5.7 -4.2 -0.2
  Thu, Jan 8 210 @Monmouth W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 264 @Drexel W 78-72 70%    
  Thu, Jan 15 308 N.C. A&T W 90-76 90%    
  Thu, Jan 22 124 UNC Wilmington W 77-74 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 113 Hofstra W 78-76 58%    
  Thu, Jan 29 165 @Elon W 85-84 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 209 Campbell W 88-79 79%    
  Thu, Feb 5 124 @UNC Wilmington L 74-77 39%    
  Sat, Feb 7 237 @Hampton W 77-73 65%    
  Thu, Feb 12 223 @Northeastern W 84-81 62%    
  Sat, Feb 14 165 Elon W 88-82 72%    
  Thu, Feb 19 209 @Campbell W 85-82 60%    
  Thu, Feb 26 223 Northeastern W 87-78 80%    
  Sat, Feb 28 308 @N.C. A&T W 87-79 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 237 Hampton W 80-70 82%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.0 7.8 7.3 3.6 0.8 24.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 5.6 8.8 5.6 1.6 0.1 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 5.1 8.0 4.1 0.8 0.0 18.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.2 6.2 2.9 0.3 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.2 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.4 2.6 2.1 0.3 5.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.4 6.6 10.5 14.8 17.4 17.2 14.2 8.9 3.7 0.8 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 96.3% 3.6    3.2 0.4 0.0
15-3 82.0% 7.3    5.3 1.9 0.1
14-4 54.9% 7.8    3.8 3.3 0.7 0.0
13-5 23.2% 4.0    1.0 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.3% 24.3 14.0 7.6 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.8% 43.6% 43.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5
16-2 3.7% 33.4% 33.4% 12.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 2.5
15-3 8.9% 31.8% 31.8% 12.4 0.1 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.1
14-4 14.2% 27.7% 27.7% 12.6 0.1 1.6 2.1 0.2 10.3
13-5 17.2% 24.4% 24.4% 12.9 0.0 1.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 13.0
12-6 17.4% 17.9% 17.9% 13.1 0.0 0.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 14.3
11-7 14.8% 13.9% 13.9% 13.4 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 12.8
10-8 10.5% 8.4% 8.4% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 9.6
9-9 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.2
8-10 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.3
7-11 1.5% 3.5% 3.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.5% 2.4% 2.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
5-13 0.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.9 9.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.1 1.9 7.6 70.5 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%