Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-9.3#327
Expected Predictive Rating-6.9#279
Pace67.9#213
Improvement-1.7#286

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#295
First Shot-5.0#311
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#146
Layup/Dunks+0.0#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#164
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#316
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-2.0#313

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#321
First Shot-2.7#264
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#312
Layups/Dunks-5.3#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#313
Freethrows+3.8#11
Improvement+0.3#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 1.7% 3.1% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 9.7% 12.9% 7.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 37.3% 31.9% 40.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Neutral) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 102 - 14
Quad 46 - 98 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 12   @ Marquette L 62-102 1%     0 - 1 -21.6 -1.0 -20.8
  Nov 07, 2024 196   @ Central Michigan W 73-72 16%     1 - 1 +2.5 +5.0 -2.5
  Nov 11, 2024 82   @ George Mason L 56-94 5%     1 - 2 -28.5 -9.7 -19.0
  Nov 20, 2024 107   Yale L 64-86 17%     1 - 3 -21.0 -11.7 -9.1
  Nov 23, 2024 192   @ Columbia L 63-82 15%     1 - 4 -17.4 -9.7 -8.4
  Nov 27, 2024 164   @ Brown L 54-77 14%     1 - 5 -20.6 -15.1 -6.9
  Dec 01, 2024 153   Norfolk St. L 66-77 26%     1 - 6 -13.6 -3.1 -11.5
  Dec 07, 2024 286   Air Force L 65-68 39%    
  Dec 14, 2024 257   @ Rider L 65-72 26%    
  Dec 17, 2024 242   Marist L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 21, 2024 211   Maine L 65-69 35%    
  Dec 29, 2024 237   @ Albany L 72-80 22%    
  Jan 02, 2025 287   @ Monmouth L 69-75 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 219   William & Mary L 77-80 39%    
  Jan 09, 2025 167   Drexel L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 11, 2025 152   Northeastern L 66-73 26%    
  Jan 16, 2025 213   @ Delaware L 72-82 19%    
  Jan 18, 2025 147   @ Towson L 58-71 12%    
  Jan 23, 2025 278   Campbell W 68-67 51%    
  Jan 25, 2025 311   N.C. A&T W 79-77 56%    
  Jan 30, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 68-82 10%    
  Feb 01, 2025 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 64-78 11%    
  Feb 06, 2025 147   Towson L 61-68 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 61-74 13%    
  Feb 13, 2025 287   Monmouth W 73-72 51%    
  Feb 15, 2025 152   @ Northeastern L 63-76 13%    
  Feb 20, 2025 264   @ Hampton L 66-72 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 311   @ N.C. A&T L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 27, 2025 156   Hofstra L 64-71 28%    
  Mar 01, 2025 173   Elon L 68-73 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 4th
5th 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.1 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.3 4.2 0.7 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.5 1.9 0.1 11.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 3.6 6.8 3.2 0.3 0.0 14.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.2 5.0 7.6 4.2 0.7 0.0 18.7 13th
14th 1.3 4.4 7.6 7.6 3.9 0.8 0.0 25.6 14th
Total 1.3 4.5 8.8 13.2 15.8 15.8 13.5 10.6 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 52.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 30.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 4.8% 4.8% 14.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 12.7% 12.7% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
11-7 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.3
10-8 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
9-9 4.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.6
8-10 7.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.9
7-11 10.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.6
6-12 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-13 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.8
4-14 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.8
3-15 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.2
2-16 8.8% 8.8
1-17 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.5
0-18 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%