Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.2 216
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 172
Pace 64.4 297
Improvement +2.2 101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 236 C D C- D C+
Defense C 196 C- C+ C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 291 D- 51% 335 -4.7 335
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 289 C+ 40% 95 -1.2 249
Three Pointers 49% 31 B- 36% 108 +5.3 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 155 C- -0.9 202
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 192
Second Chance C- 28.2% 241 D- 0.91 326 D 0.26 304
Turnovers C- 17.4% 212
Freethrows D- 0.25 333 C- 72% 212 D 0.18 322
Total Offense C- -2.3 236

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 45% 239 F+ 15.0% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 21% 233 B+ 2.1% 23
Three Pointers C 84% 205 D 1.6% 321
Total C+ 58% 135 D+ 6.4% 265

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 225 C- 59% 209 -0.3 165
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 199 B+ 33% 25 -1.3 92
Three Pointers 43% 108 D+ 36% 284 +2.6 300
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 169 C- +0.9 218
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 214
Second Chance C- 32.0% 246 B+ 0.89 26 C+ 0.29 104
Turnovers C- 15.7% 246
Freethrows C+ 0.29 146 C- 73% 238 C+ 0.21 156
Total Defense C -0.8 196

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 68 C 10.8% 185
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 307 B- 6.5% 81
Three Pointers C- 85% 202 C 0.9% 157
Total C 56% 193 C 5.7% 165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 295 17.1 152
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 336 0.17 190
Improvement +0.5 #157 +1.7 #90

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 248 215 181
Conference Record 8 - 10 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 9 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 92% 100% 73%
.500 or above in Conference 91% 100% 70%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round3% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 411 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 346 Maine W 71 - 60 88% +6  99% 1 - 0 C- -5 D- -8 D F A+ B- +3 B B- F
 Sat, Nov 15 81 @Yale L 79 - 86 11% -7  3% 1 - 1 C+ +3 A +11 A+ B- F+ F+ -9 F+ B- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 268 Brown W 80 - 70 71% +9  89% 2 - 1 C +1 B+ +8 B- A- A D- -7 F D C-
 Mon, Nov 24 127 Pacific L 58 - 86 29% -17  4% 2 - 2 F -26 F -13 F D D- F -14 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 241 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 55% -2  33% 3 - 2 C+ +3 D- -8 D D- F A +11 A A- C-
 Fri, Nov 28 153 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 27% +6  69% 4 - 2 B- +6 C +1 B- D+ B- B +5 B- D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 110 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 18% -8  4% 4 - 3 C- -2 B- +4 D+ C+ A+ D- -7 F A D+
 Tue, Dec 9 197 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 58% +8  91% 5 - 3 C -1 F -11 F+ B F A +9 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 274 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 73% +16  97% 6 - 3 B+ +13 B- +4 A+ A+ F A+ +11 A+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 316 Albany L 55 - 71 81% -8  10% 6 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F A- D -6 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 184 @Marist L 51 - 70 32% -13  8% 6 - 5 F+ -17 F -16 F F C- C- -3 C D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 257 @Hampton L 59 - 62 47% +2  72% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -5 F -10 B F F B +4 C D D+
 Wed, Dec 31 134 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 23% -6  5% 6 - 7 0 - 2 D- -14 F -13 F+ F D+ D+ -3 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 288 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 75% +4  71% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -9 B +6 B+ C- B- F -16 D+ F D
 Thu, Jan 8 222 @Drexel L 37 - 56 40% -7  17% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -19 F -27 F C B- B +4 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 111 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 36% +8  72% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C- -3 C +1 C A+ C- D+ -4 F+ D+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 108 Hofstra W 76 - 71 34% +6  89% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +6 A+ +14 A C+ B+ D- -8 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 151 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 49% +3  68% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +3 A+ +15 A+ D+ A F -13 D+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 289 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 55% +9  94% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B +11 A +14 A+ C- F+ D+ -3 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 191 @Campbell W 81 - 69 34% +3  75% 11 - 9 5 - 4 B+ +13 B+ +9 A F B+ B +5 C A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 203 @Elon W 72 - 68 37% +6  90% 12 - 9 6 - 4 C+ +4 D -5 D+ C+ D- A +10 C A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 5 189 Monmouth L 75 - 76 57% -8  0% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 B- C- F C- -3 C- A D-
 Sat, Feb 7 289 Northeastern W 69 - 55 76% +10  73% 13 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +4 F -11 C- F D A+ +15 A+ D- C+
 Thu, Feb 12 167 @Towson L 57 - 69 29% -10  0% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D -9 F+ -9 F C+ A C- -2 C+ C D-
 Mon, Feb 16 222 Drexel W 72 - 69 62% -1  34% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C- -3 C +1 C F+ A+ D+ -4 D D- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 257 Hampton W 69 - 64 70%
 Thu, Feb 26 189 @Monmouth L 67 - 71 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @Hofstra L 64 - 74 17%
 Tue, Mar 3 167 Towson W 66 - 65 51%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3 C- -2 A+ C- C+ C -1 B- C- D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ B- C- 35% 28% 49% C+ C C- D- D C- D- C- D C C- B+ D+ C- 37% 20% 43% C C- C- B+ C+ C- C+ C- C+
1.05 51% 40% 36% -1 0 1.01 28% 0.9 .26 17% .25 72% .18 1.10 59% 33% 36% +1 0 1.04 32% 0.9 .29 16% .29 73% .19
Nov
8		 Maine D- C C- F D- 47% 21% 32% C+ D F F F A+ B+ D- B- B- F A+ A+ B 46% 23% 31% C- B A- F+ B- F F B D-
1.02 60% 36% 24% -4 +1 0.94 24% 0.7 .17 11% .37 65% .24 0.86 68% 9% 20% -9 0 0.85 14% 1.2 .16 16% .42 60% .25
Nov
15		 Yale A A+ B- A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ B- F+ B+ C- B F+ C+ A- F F 40% 23% 38% B- F+ F+ A+ B- C+ F F F
1.24 73% 43% 43% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.5 .35 19% .33 71% .23 1.35 56% 33% 60% +13 0 1.28 40% 0.9 .36 16% .61 85% .52
Nov
20		 Brown B+ C- F A+ C+ 53% 16% 31% A- B- C+ A+ A- A C+ D C- D- B+ F F F 42% 22% 36% B- F F B D C- B+ A+ A
1.20 56% 25% 44% +1 +2 1.08 32% 1.3 .41 13% .35 70% .24 1.05 48% 55% 44% +5 0 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 19% .20 55% .11
Nov
24		 Pacific F F A+ F F 23% 19% 58% C+ F D- C D D- F A+ D+ F F D F F 40% 33% 28% A- F A+ C A+ C+ F F F
0.87 33% 50% 27% -10 -1 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 18% .24 85% .20 1.29 94% 46% 64% +29 -1 1.58 18% 1.0 .18 21% .45 83% .38
Nov
25		 Bethune-Cookman D- D D- D+ D 26% 19% 55% F+ D B+ F D- F C F D A B+ C+ A+ A 42% 35% 23% A- A F A+ A- C- F A- F
0.97 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.89 38% 0.7 .28 22% .33 63% .20 0.86 50% 33% 20% -10 -2 0.79 45% 0.4 .17 17% .50 62% .31
Nov
28		 Loyola Marymount C F A+ D+ C+ 38% 21% 40% B- B- F+ B D+ B- A A A+ B D- A+ A- B+ 38% 13% 50% F B- F B+ D- A- F F F
1.04 33% 80% 32% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .38 82% .31 1.00 67% 17% 29% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .35 22% .38 80% .30
Dec
6		 Duquesne B- F A+ D D 36% 13% 52% B+ D+ B- D+ C+ A+ F A- F D- B- F F F 38% 11% 51% C+ F F A+ A D+ F C- F
1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18 1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33
Dec
9		 Columbia F F B+ C+ F 46% 19% 35% C+ F+ C A+ B F B- F+ C A C+ A+ B A- 43% 11% 46% D+ B+ D- A+ A+ B- D+ F D-
0.97 35% 45% 35% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 20% .33 67% .22 0.92 57% 17% 32% -4 +2 0.96 40% 0.4 .16 23% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Central Michigan B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D+ A+ A+ C A+ F C- B C A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% C A+ A+ F B+ F C F D
1.22 50% 50% 67% +17 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25 0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21
Dec
17		 Albany F F F+ F F 42% 18% 40% C F F F F A- F F+ F D F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F F C+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ C+
0.84 42% 30% 26% -13 +1 0.77 17% 0.4 .07 11% .22 69% .15 1.09 75% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.28 30% 0.4 .12 18% .34 44% .15
Dec
21		 Marist F F F F F 22% 31% 47% F+ F F+ F F C- C- F D C- C+ B+ C C+ 35% 23% 42% D+ C C- D+ D+ F C+ C C+
0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21 1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19
Dec
29		 Hampton F F+ D+ A+ C+ 50% 7% 43% A B D- F F F B F F B F F A+ C 31% 27% 42% C C A F D D+ C- A+ B+
0.92 52% 33% 44% +4 +3 1.14 23% 0.3 .06 25% .41 45% .19 0.96 71% 50% 16% -4 -1 0.91 26% 1.4 .35 17% .36 58% .21
Dec
31		 William & Mary F B+ F F+ F+ 24% 14% 63% D+ F+ B F F D+ F A+ D- D+ D+ F F F 39% 9% 52% C F C- A+ A- B- D D- F+
0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15 1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30
Jan
3		 N.C. A&T B C- D- A+ A- 40% 17% 42% C+ B+ D B+ C- B- F+ A+ D+ F A B- F D+ 40% 33% 27% C+ D+ F A+ F D C+ F D-
1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19 1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Drexel F F F F F 26% 17% 57% C F B- D C B- F D F B A+ A+ C- A+ 36% 12% 52% D A C- F F B+ B F C-
0.65 25% 13% 15% -29 0 0.43 34% 0.9 .32 14% .22 73% .16 0.98 33% 20% 36% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.3 .40 23% .23 80% .18
Jan
10		 UNC Wilmington C F A+ F+ C- 30% 21% 49% B- C D A+ A+ C- F A+ F D+ B- A+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% D- F+ B F D+ C+ A A+ A+
1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09 1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13
Jan
15		 Hofstra A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% C+ A B+ D C+ B+ C- D- D+ D- B- A+ F D+ 27% 21% 52% C D+ D+ A+ B+ F A D- B+
1.28 56% 40% 43% +7 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19 1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17
Jan
17		 College of Charleston A+ C+ A+ A A+ 35% 12% 53% A- A+ F A+ D+ A A+ D- A+ F B A F C- 46% 19% 35% D- D+ B F F F F F F
1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26 1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39
Jan
22		 Northeastern A C+ C- A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ B F+ C- F+ C+ C+ B- D+ F A+ A+ B 39% 18% 44% C+ B C+ F F F D+ A+ A
1.33 63% 40% 57% +22 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27 1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13
Jan
29		 Campbell B+ B B A+ A 45% 15% 40% B A B F F B+ C+ B B- B F A+ D D+ 31% 25% 43% A+ C A+ D- A- D+ A F B+
1.22 67% 43% 47% +13 +1 1.30 36% 0.5 .18 15% .32 78% .25 1.04 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 17% .29 81% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Elon D F B+ B+ D+ 24% 18% 57% D+ D+ B- D+ C+ D- A- B A- A B- B- D+ C+ 57% 6% 37% F C C- A+ A+ C+ C C- C-
1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27 0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
5		 Monmouth D+ B+ F B+ B- 34% 10% 56% B- B- C- C- C- F C A+ B+ C- D A+ D+ C- 35% 23% 42% C- C- C+ A+ A D- F+ D F
1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26 1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29
Feb
7		 Northeastern F A+ C F D+ 38% 15% 47% C C- F A+ F D C+ C C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% A+ A+ C F D- C+ D+ B C-
1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26 0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20
Feb
12		 Towson F+ C F F F 27% 20% 53% C- F C+ C+ C+ A D F D- C- A F B- C+ 33% 30% 37% C C+ D+ C+ C D- C+ D C
0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14 1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18
Feb
16		 Drexel C F+ B+ C+ C 36% 21% 43% C+ C D+ F F+ A+ C+ A B D+ B+ F+ F D- 36% 24% 40% B D F B D- A+ B+ F C+
1.10 47% 45% 35% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.8 .22 9% .32 84% .27 1.06 50% 45% 44% +5 -1 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 26% .21 80% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.9 1.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 1.5 10.0 1.4 12.9 3rd
4th 0.5 21.8 6.8 29.1 4th
5th 5.0 14.2 19.2 5th
6th 0.0 13.9 1.2 15.1 6th
7th 0.5 10.9 11.5 7th
8th 3.2 1.8 5.0 8th
9th 3.8 0.0 3.8 9th
10th 1.3 1.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 9.0 32.1 38.6 17.8 2.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 2.6% 6.6% 6.6% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.4
11-7 17.8% 5.9% 5.9% 14.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 16.7
10-8 38.6% 3.0% 3.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 37.5
9-9 32.1% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 31.6
8-10 9.0% 0.7% 0.7% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.9
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 14.6 97.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.6 45.1 49.0 5.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%
Lose Out 5.3%