Elon
Colonial Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.8#268
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#313
Pace70.9#137
Improvement-1.6#299

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#223
First Shot+0.6#159
After Offensive Rebound-2.3#301
Layup/Dunks-5.5#333
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#80
Freethrows+1.7#70
Improvement+0.2#156

Defense
Total Defense-4.1#300
First Shot-4.6#311
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#144
Layups/Dunks+2.4#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#260
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
Freethrows-5.1#350
Improvement-1.8#320
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 3.9% 9.3% 2.5%
.500 or above in Conference 25.8% 36.1% 23.1%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.6% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 16.7% 11.4% 18.1%
First Four1.5% 1.8% 1.4%
First Round1.4% 2.6% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Greensboro (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 32 - 93 - 16
Quad 46 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 14   @ Florida L 61-74 2%     0 - 1 +5.5 +0.7 +4.2
  Nov 18, 2021 48   West Virginia L 68-87 8%     0 - 2 -9.4 -4.4 -4.0
  Nov 19, 2021 77   Mississippi L 56-74 12%     0 - 3 -11.3 -13.7 +3.2
  Nov 21, 2021 148   Temple L 58-75 25%     0 - 4 -15.7 -12.2 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2021 147   Jacksonville St. L 81-93 34%     0 - 5 -13.7 +6.7 -20.3
  Nov 30, 2021 173   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-69 21%    
  Dec 04, 2021 285   High Point W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 11, 2021 43   @ North Carolina L 71-90 4%    
  Dec 15, 2021 146   Winthrop L 77-81 35%    
  Dec 21, 2021 25   @ Arkansas L 66-88 2%    
  Dec 29, 2021 149   Northeastern L 65-69 36%    
  Dec 31, 2021 131   Hofstra L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 05, 2022 333   William & Mary W 77-68 79%    
  Jan 09, 2022 202   @ College of Charleston L 79-86 27%    
  Jan 11, 2022 282   @ UNC Wilmington L 69-71 41%    
  Jan 15, 2022 169   Towson L 69-72 42%    
  Jan 17, 2022 164   James Madison L 74-77 40%    
  Jan 20, 2022 168   @ Drexel L 66-75 23%    
  Jan 22, 2022 162   @ Delaware L 71-80 21%    
  Jan 29, 2022 333   @ William & Mary W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 03, 2022 282   UNC Wilmington W 72-68 63%    
  Feb 05, 2022 202   College of Charleston L 82-83 47%    
  Feb 10, 2022 164   @ James Madison L 71-80 22%    
  Feb 12, 2022 169   @ Towson L 66-75 23%    
  Feb 17, 2022 162   Delaware L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 19, 2022 168   Drexel L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 24, 2022 131   @ Hofstra L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 26, 2022 149   @ Northeastern L 62-72 19%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.2 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 4.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.3 0.2 0.0 8.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.7 0.4 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.4 4.2 0.7 15.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.2 7.3 4.1 0.8 19.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.6 6.6 6.3 3.0 0.6 0.0 21.1 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 3.1 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 10.4 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.1 7.0 10.3 12.7 13.6 13.1 11.9 9.6 6.9 4.2 2.7 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 75.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 43.4% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1
12-6 11.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.8% 11.8% 11.8% 14.3 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 1.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
12-6 2.7% 8.3% 8.3% 15.5 0.1 0.1 2.4
11-7 4.2% 6.4% 6.4% 15.9 0.0 0.2 3.9
10-8 6.9% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 6.5
9-9 9.6% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.2
8-10 11.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 11.6
7-11 13.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.9
6-12 13.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.7
4-14 10.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.2
3-15 7.0% 7.0
2-16 4.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.1
1-17 1.4% 1.4
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.3 1.7 97.9 0.0%