Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 #162
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #156
Pace 67.8 #232
Improvement +3.7 #16

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #69 A B- B- C A+
Defense #327 D C D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #39 1.26 #76 +6.3 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #356 0.78 #144 -4.5 #349
Three Pointers 47% #76 1.15 #43 +6.0 #30
1st FG Attempt 1.17 #22 +7.8 #22
Freethrows 19.3 #89 72% #197 13.8 #107
Second Chance 35.8% #51 1.00 #230 0.36 #102
Turnovers 16.5% #164
Total Offense +4.9 #69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #268 1.13 #137 +2.4 #102
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #276 0.78 #227 +1.4 #91
Three Pointers 48% #33 1.20 #351 -7.8 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #302 -4.0 #298
Freethrows 18.5 #239 69% #86 12.8 #212
Second Chance 34.0% #298 1.05 #200 0.36 #270
Turnovers 15.7% #241
Total Defense -5.0 #327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.2% #6 0.4% #201
Shot Type Make Effect 10.6% #40 8.1% #307
Possession Length 17.4 #199 17.4 #226
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #203 0.18 #194
Improvement +1.5 #68 +2.2 #45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 9.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 76.9% 84.4% 63.6%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 82.9% 61.2%
Conference Champion 8.1% 10.9% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.6% 2.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.6% 9.1% 5.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 36 - 67 - 11
Quad 411 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 295 @UNC Greensboro W 92-90 OT 66%     0.8   1 - 0 -2.3 +10.5 -13.0
  Wed, Nov 12 163 @Marshall L 89-96 39%     -6.3   1 - 1 -4.2 +10.2 -13.8
  Sat, Nov 15 362 Gardner-Webb W 95-84 95%     15.5   2 - 1 -7.6 +6.5 -14.9
  Thu, Nov 20 37 @Miami (FL) L 72-99 7%     -9.5   2 - 2 -11.0 +4.2 -14.0
  Mon, Nov 24 237 @Appalachian St. W 88-53 54%     17.3   3 - 2 +33.9 +29.7 +9.3
  Sat, Nov 29 176 Mercer L 84-91 65%     -0.5   3 - 3 -11.2 +1.1 -11.7
  Wed, Dec 3 143 Furman L 88-97 57%     0.8   3 - 4 -11.0 +11.6 -22.4
  Sat, Dec 6 221 @Wofford W 73-52 52%     21.1   4 - 4 +20.3 +10.7 +12.8
  Sat, Dec 13 322 Northern Illinois W 85-79 88%     -4.4   5 - 4 -6.8 +4.1 -11.0
  Wed, Dec 17 114 Richmond W 73-70 48%     -1.7   6 - 4 +3.3 +5.0 -1.5
  Sat, Dec 20 73 @Virginia Tech L 81-82 OT 16%     5.9   6 - 5 +9.6 +13.4 -3.8
  Mon, Dec 29 211 Northeastern W 103-91 72%     5.1   7 - 5 1 - 0 +5.7 +23.4 -18.1
  Wed, Dec 31 167 College of Charleston W 80-76 64%    
  Thu, Jan 8 302 @N.C. A&T W 82-77 69%    
  Sat, Jan 10 238 Campbell W 85-78 75%    
  Thu, Jan 15 211 @Northeastern W 80-79 50%    
  Sat, Jan 17 107 @Hofstra L 72-79 26%    
  Thu, Jan 22 138 Towson W 72-71 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 167 @College of Charleston L 77-79 42%    
  Thu, Jan 29 112 William & Mary L 84-85 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 253 Stony Brook W 77-69 77%    
  Thu, Feb 5 247 @Hampton W 76-74 56%    
  Sat, Feb 7 273 Drexel W 78-69 80%    
  Thu, Feb 12 119 @UNC Wilmington L 73-79 29%    
  Sat, Feb 14 112 @William & Mary L 81-88 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 302 N.C. A&T W 85-74 83%    
  Thu, Feb 26 138 @Towson L 69-74 34%    
  Sat, Feb 28 227 @Monmouth W 78-77 53%    
  Tue, Mar 3 119 UNC Wilmington L 76-77 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 2.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 8.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.2 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.8 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.2 3.1 0.4 0.0 13.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.1 6.6 3.5 0.4 0.0 13.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 6.5 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.1 4.1 0.6 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 3.5 0.9 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 2.8 1.1 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.1 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 2.0 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.8 7.2 10.9 14.9 15.2 14.4 12.6 8.9 5.3 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 98.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 81.8% 2.1    1.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 51.7% 2.7    1.2 1.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.2% 1.7    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 4.1 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.0% 31.3% 31.3% 12.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7
15-3 2.6% 23.6% 23.6% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-4 5.3% 17.7% 17.7% 13.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.3
13-5 8.9% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 7.6
12-6 12.6% 13.1% 13.1% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 11.0
11-7 14.4% 8.3% 8.3% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 13.2
10-8 15.2% 5.5% 5.5% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 14.4
9-9 14.9% 3.2% 3.2% 14.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 14.5
8-10 10.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.7
7-11 7.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.1
6-12 3.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.8
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 13.7 0.6 2.6 3.0 1.3 0.2 92.3 0.0%