Elon
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#173
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#138
Pace65.6#276
Improvement-1.8#290

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#171
First Shot-2.5#246
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#57
Layup/Dunks-2.6#264
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#168
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#191
Freethrows+0.7#145
Improvement-3.1#358

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot+3.2#84
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#357
Layups/Dunks+5.6#37
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#275
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#320
Freethrows+2.9#32
Improvement+1.3#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.0% 10.9% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 75.4% 84.4% 64.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 80.8% 71.0%
Conference Champion 12.0% 14.5% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.1% 2.4%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round9.0% 10.9% 6.8%
Second Round0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 54.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 412 - 518 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 17   @ North Carolina L 76-90 5%     0 - 1 +3.8 +5.0 -0.4
  Nov 15, 2024 221   @ Gardner-Webb L 79-80 48%     0 - 2 -1.2 +11.3 -12.6
  Nov 20, 2024 338   @ Northern Illinois W 75-48 74%     1 - 2 +19.3 +2.9 +17.5
  Nov 22, 2024 80   @ Notre Dame W 84-77 16%     2 - 2 +16.9 +22.6 -5.1
  Nov 29, 2024 211   Maine L 56-69 56%     2 - 3 -15.4 -9.6 -6.9
  Nov 30, 2024 305   Navy W 69-63 74%     3 - 3 -1.4 -6.0 +4.7
  Dec 01, 2024 279   @ Penn W 68-53 60%     4 - 3 +11.6 +1.7 +12.4
  Dec 07, 2024 142   Wofford W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 18, 2024 135   @ East Tennessee St. L 68-73 31%    
  Dec 21, 2024 160   UNC Greensboro W 68-66 58%    
  Dec 28, 2024 195   Marshall W 76-72 63%    
  Jan 02, 2025 311   @ N.C. A&T W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 264   Hampton W 72-64 77%    
  Jan 09, 2025 219   @ William & Mary L 77-78 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 278   Campbell W 72-63 78%    
  Jan 16, 2025 167   @ Drexel L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 18, 2025 213   @ Delaware L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 287   Monmouth W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 25, 2025 127   College of Charleston W 75-74 52%    
  Jan 30, 2025 156   Hofstra W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 152   Northeastern W 70-68 56%    
  Feb 06, 2025 278   @ Campbell W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 127   @ College of Charleston L 71-77 31%    
  Feb 13, 2025 311   N.C. A&T W 82-72 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 140   @ UNC Wilmington L 67-72 33%    
  Feb 20, 2025 147   Towson W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 22, 2025 219   William & Mary W 80-75 68%    
  Feb 27, 2025 287   @ Monmouth W 73-70 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 327   @ Stony Brook W 73-68 68%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.6 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 12.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.7 3.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 5.3 3.1 0.6 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.4 3.5 0.5 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.6 4.3 0.7 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 4.6 1.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.8 1.9 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.5 2.7 0.3 7.2 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.1 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.0 6.5 9.2 11.9 13.2 14.0 12.8 10.3 7.3 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 99.4% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.0% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
15-3 80.1% 3.2    2.2 0.9 0.1
14-4 49.5% 3.6    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 19.7% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.7% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.0% 12.0 6.5 3.7 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 40.5% 37.8% 2.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.3%
17-1 0.6% 38.3% 38.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-2 1.9% 27.7% 27.7% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4
15-3 4.0% 25.3% 25.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0
14-4 7.3% 19.9% 19.9% 13.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.9
13-5 10.3% 15.5% 15.5% 13.8 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 8.7
12-6 12.8% 12.7% 12.7% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 11.2
11-7 14.0% 8.9% 8.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 12.8
10-8 13.2% 5.0% 5.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 12.6
9-9 11.9% 2.9% 2.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.6
8-10 9.2% 1.5% 1.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 9.1
7-11 6.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.4
6-12 4.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-13 2.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-14 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.9 2.1 0.3 91.0 0.0%