Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.8 226
Results Rating -3.2 217
Pace 67.6 204
Improvement -4.8 338

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 118 B- C+ C+ C A-
Defense D 325 D+ D- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 C 58% 177 +3.4 64
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 339 D 33% 330 -4.5 358
Three Pointers 45% 100 B- 36% 107 +3.2 77
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 16 C +0.5 149
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 107
Second Chance B- 32.8% 104 C- 1.01 203 C+ 0.33 123
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 145
Freethrows C 0.31 177 C- 71% 232 C 0.22 187
Total Offense C+ +1.9 118

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 230 D+ 12.4% 267
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 308 C- 6.2% 260
Three Pointers B- 89% 73 C- 1.1% 253
Total C+ 59% 109 D+ 6.7% 294

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 302 C+ 56% 113 -3.3 72
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 236 C- 40% 255 -0.6 136
Three Pointers 47% 28 F+ 39% 356 +6.8 360
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 154 D +3.1 300
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 281
Second Chance D 34.0% 314 D 1.12 308 D- 0.38 330
Turnovers C- 15.7% 246
Freethrows C+ 0.29 151 C 72% 155 C+ 0.21 138
Total Defense D -5.6 325

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 258 C- 10.1% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 232 D+ 3.0% 293
Three Pointers C- 85% 216 C+ 1.2% 103
Total D 62% 311 D+ 4.6% 257

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 170 17.4 207
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 232 0.17 166
Improvement -4.5 #351 -0.3 #209

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 257 231 201
Results Rating Rank 264 224 186
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 11 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.9 15.7
.500 or above 7% 19% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 4% 13% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Towson (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 9
Quad 47 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 301 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 56% +1  45% 1 - 0 C- -3 B- +5 D D- A+ F+ -8 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 178 @Marshall L 89 - 96 29% -6  3% 1 - 1 D+ -5 B- +4 B- C A- F+ -9 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 94% +16  94% 2 - 1 D -11 C+ +2 A B+ F F -14 F D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 39 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 4% -10  0% 2 - 2 D -11 C +1 A+ C- F F -10 D+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 173 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 28% +17  97% 3 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +28 C+ A+ A A+ +14 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 179 Mercer L 84 - 91 51% -1  48% 3 - 3 D -11 D+ -3 D+ D F D- -8 D B F
 Wed, Dec 3 176 Furman L 88 - 97 51% +1  42% 3 - 4 D- -13 A- +10 C+ B- A+ F -22 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 238 @Wofford W 73 - 52 40% +21  99% 4 - 4 A +20 B- +5 A- F D- A+ +18 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 323 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 82% -4  7% 5 - 4 D+ -7 B- +5 C+ F+ A F -12 D+ F+ F+
 Wed, Dec 17 130 Richmond W 73 - 70 39% -2  18% 6 - 4 C+ +2 C -0 A F D- B- +2 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 57 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 7% +6  84% 6 - 5 B+ +12 A +12 A A+ F+ C -1 B+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 292 Northeastern W 103 - 91 75% +5  98% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C +1 A+ +17 A+ A+ D F -16 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 149 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 45% -7  2% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 C C A+ F+ -8 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 271 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 48% +6  94% 8 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +2 D- -7 F+ C C A +8 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 195 Campbell W 83 - 82 55% -6  4% 9 - 6 3 - 1 C- -4 B +7 B A+ B+ F -11 F B F
 Thu, Jan 15 292 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 53% -4  19% 9 - 7 3 - 2 D- -12 D- -7 C+ D F D+ -4 C F D
 Sat, Jan 17 106 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 15% +3  73% 10 - 7 4 - 2 B +11 A+ +21 A+ C- A- F -10 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 174 Towson L 59 - 72 50% -5  21% 10 - 8 4 - 3 F+ -17 D -5 C- C F F -14 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 149 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 25% -10  0% 10 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D C+ D- C- -2 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 136 William & Mary W 79 - 76 41% -4  19% 11 - 9 5 - 4 C +2 B +6 B- B- A+ D+ -4 C- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 59% -6  7% 11 - 10 5 - 5 D -10 F+ -9 C+ F D+ C -1 C+ F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 259 @Hampton L 79 - 87 2OT 45% -0  48% 11 - 11 5 - 6 D -11 D -4 D+ D C D -5 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 216 Drexel L 77 - 82 59% -6  0% 11 - 12 5 - 7 D -11 B- +4 D A+ C+ F -15 F+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 109 @UNC Wilmington L 54 - 65 16% -9  1% 11 - 13 5 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 F D+ C+ B- +3 D D A
 Sat, Feb 14 136 @William & Mary W 81 - 78 22% +1  57% 12 - 13 6 - 8 B- +8 B +6 D B- A+ C+ +2 B- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 271 N.C. A&T L 82 - 102 70% -10  1% 12 - 14 6 - 9 F -29 B- +4 C- A B- F -34 F F D
 Thu, Feb 26 174 @Towson L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 197 @Monmouth L 73 - 78 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 109 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 77 34%
Totals 13 - 16 7 - 11 -4 C+ +2 C+ C A- D -6 B- C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B- C 44% 22% 45% A- B- B- C- C+ C+ C C- C D C+ C- F+ D 34% 19% 47% C D+ D D D- C- C+ C C+
1.11 58% 33% 36% +1 +2 1.07 33% 1.0 .33 16% .31 71% .22 1.17 56% 40% 39% +3 0 1.08 34% 1.1 .38 16% .29 72% .22
Nov
8		 UNC Greensboro B- D F A- D- 38% 16% 47% B- D A F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F+ B+ D+ F F 30% 19% 51% C- F D A+ B+ C- D- A+ C
1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30 1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25
Nov
12		 Marshall B- A F D C+ 37% 7% 56% A B- C- B- C A- D+ C+ C- F+ C- C F F+ 31% 15% 54% F+ F+ B F F C+ F B+ F+
1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24 1.26 63% 38% 43% +8 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24
Nov
15		 Gardner-Webb C+ C+ D+ A+ A 33% 12% 55% C+ A D+ A+ B+ F A F B F F F+ B- F 42% 20% 38% B- F F A+ D- D- B- A B
1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25 1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
20		 Miami (FL) C B D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A A+ D B+ C- F A- F C+ F D+ B- F D 44% 20% 35% B- D+ F F F D D+ C D+
0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +2 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18 1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25
Nov
24		 Appalachian St. A+ B+ A+ F C+ 37% 16% 47% C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A B A+ A- A+ B A+ A A 30% 9% 61% D+ A- A- C+ B+ C- F A+ C-
1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25 0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21
Nov
29		 Mercer D+ C+ F D+ D- 49% 7% 44% A D+ A+ F D F A+ D+ A+ D- C A+ F D 31% 17% 52% C- D A+ F B F F D+ F
1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32 1.18 59% 22% 43% +4 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34
Dec
3		 Furman A- D F B- C- 45% 2% 53% A+ C+ C+ B B- A+ A+ B A+ F F D+ F+ 38% 0% 62% F F D B+ C F F F F
1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29 1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38
Dec
6		 Wofford B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 52% 9% 39% A- A- A F F D- C- C C- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 4% 64% D A+ C A+ B+ C B A+ A
1.20 54% 75% 44% +7 +3 1.22 39% 0.5 .21 18% .28 79% .22 0.85 47% 0% 23% -15 +2 0.74 28% 0.7 .20 15% .29 60% .17
Dec
13		 Northern Illinois B- A A+ F C 57% 10% 33% A- C+ B- F F+ A A+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ F D+ 35% 8% 57% C- D+ D F F+ F+ F F F
1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39 1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35
Dec
17		 Richmond C C- A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% A+ A B- F F D- C+ D+ C B- A D+ F D- 22% 26% 52% B- D F C+ F A+ A+ F B
1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21 1.06 50% 42% 46% +8 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22
Dec
20		 Virginia Tech A A F B A- 49% 8% 43% A+ A A+ C A+ F+ D+ A+ C C A F C+ B+ 43% 32% 26% B+ B+ F D+ F A- F B+ F
1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17 1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35
Dec
29		 Northeastern A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 6% 45% A A+ A+ A+ A+ D A B A F C+ A- F F 44% 19% 37% C F C- D+ C- C+ C- B C
1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33 1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19
Dec
31		 College of Charleston C+ C A+ F D+ 45% 10% 45% A+ C D- A+ C A+ A- D- B F+ A+ F D B- 43% 16% 41% F+ C+ D- F F C- F F F
1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19 1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42
Jan
8		 N.C. A&T D- F F B+ F 56% 8% 36% A+ F+ C- B- C C B+ F C A A D+ A+ A 22% 24% 55% B- A D- F F C A+ D+ A+
1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
10		 Campbell B C- F A+ C+ 58% 8% 34% A+ B C- A+ A+ B+ F F F F A- F F F 39% 15% 46% B- F A- C B F A C+ A
1.23 58% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.17 30% 1.9 .57 15% .17 40% .07 1.22 48% 50% 48% +7 +1 1.19 28% 1.0 .28 12% .29 71% .20
Jan
15		 Northeastern D- C- F A+ C 44% 8% 48% B+ C+ D- C D F D+ F F+ D+ C+ F+ C+ C 39% 19% 42% C+ C D+ F F D A+ D A
1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19 1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12
Jan
17		 Hofstra A+ A D+ A+ A+ 52% 7% 41% A+ A+ C+ D- C- A- A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F F 17% 31% 52% A+ F D- A+ A- C F C F
1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37 1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29
Jan
22		 Towson D D+ F C+ D+ 37% 12% 51% B C- B+ F+ C F A- C- B+ F A- A+ F A 31% 29% 41% C A F F F F C- F D-
1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24 1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24
Jan
24		 College of Charleston D+ B+ A+ F D- 27% 23% 50% C- D D+ B+ C+ D- A- B- A- C- F A+ B F+ 30% 28% 42% B+ D- F A- D+ A F A+ D+
0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22 1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29
Jan
29		 William & Mary B C- D B C 53% 6% 42% A B- C- A- B- A+ D- F+ D- D+ B A+ F+ C 40% 4% 56% D C- C- C+ C B A- D B+
1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15 1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Stony Brook F+ D+ C- B- C- 57% 6% 37% A+ C+ C+ F F D+ B- C- C+ C A+ D D- C 24% 18% 57% B+ C+ F F+ F C+ F D+ F
0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23 1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27
Feb
5		 Hampton D A+ F C C- 31% 31% 38% F D+ C+ F D C A- F C+ D A+ B+ B+ A- 33% 30% 37% C+ A- D+ F F F F B- F
1.00 76% 24% 33% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 16% .46 60% .27 1.10 42% 29% 29% -11 -2 0.77 36% 1.5 .53 13% .54 70% .38
Feb
7		 Drexel B- D+ F F+ D- 35% 14% 51% B D D+ A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F C- B F F+ 33% 18% 49% C F+ A+ F B- F F D F
1.14 53% 29% 28% -8 +1 0.88 26% 2.0 .53 15% .47 85% .40 1.21 59% 33% 44% +7 0 1.16 20% 1.1 .23 9% .39 71% .28
Feb
12		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F+ F F 29% 21% 50% C+ F C+ F D+ C+ C+ F D+ B- A C+ F D- 25% 20% 55% C D B F D A A+ A+ A+
0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17 1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12
Feb
14		 William & Mary B F F A- D- 46% 13% 41% B D F A+ B- A+ B+ B- B+ C+ C F A+ B- 43% 13% 43% C B- D+ A+ A- D+ F B- D-
1.14 46% 14% 39% -5 +2 0.95 21% 1.8 .37 8% .34 73% .25 1.10 61% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 72% .30
Feb
21		 N.C. A&T B- F F A D+ 40% 11% 49% B C- A B A B- B- B+ B F F F F F 43% 31% 27% C- F F C- F D C- F D-
1.21 48% 17% 42% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .43 12% .33 75% .25 1.51 81% 67% 54% +26 -1 1.53 50% 1.1 .55 16% .37 86% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.5 1.6 6th
7th 1.6 1.3 2.9 7th
8th 0.5 8.9 0.3 9.7 8th
9th 11.4 9.6 21.0 9th
10th 5.3 22.1 0.9 28.3 10th
11th 26.9 8.7 0.0 35.6 11th
12th 0.4 0.4 12th
13th 13th
Total 32.6 42.8 21.1 3.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 3.6% 4.1% 4.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.5
8-10 21.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 20.7
7-11 42.8% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.2 0.3 42.3
6-12 32.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.3 32.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 15.3 98.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 13.9 20.0 66.7 13.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%
Lose Out 18.4%