Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #183
Expected Predictive Rating -0.3 #165
Pace 67.5 #220
Improvement -1.4 #250

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #99 B C+ C+ C A-
Defense #305 D+ D C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.20 #120 +5.2 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #351 0.67 #313 -4.7 #358
Three Pointers 45% #93 1.11 #58 +4.3 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #55 +4.8 #55
Freethrows 0.30 #183 70% #246 0.21 #199
Second Chance 32.6% #124 1.04 #196 0.34 #135
Turnovers 15.9% #147
Total Offense +2.8 #99

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #309 1.11 #107 +3.5 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #251 0.75 #162 +1.2 #95
Three Pointers 48% #27 1.18 #351 -7.4 #359
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #271 -2.6 #268
Freethrows 0.28 #106 71% #127 0.20 #103
Second Chance 33.6% #304 1.12 #286 0.38 #308
Turnovers 15.5% #233
Total Defense -4.6 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #11 0.0% #162
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.2% #91 5.7% #289
Possession Length 17.3 #171 17.8 #245
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #209 0.17 #189
Improvement -3.1 #335 +1.6 #86

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.2% 6.1% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.6
.500 or above 71.9% 81.3% 51.6%
.500 or above in Conference 68.8% 78.8% 47.3%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round5.2% 6.1% 3.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 77 - 11
Quad 49 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 308 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 65% +1  1 - 0 -4 +8 C+ D- A+ -12 F B+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 166 @Marshall L 89 - 96 34% -6  1 - 1 -4 +9 B C+ B+ -13 F+ F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95% +16  2 - 1 -10 +5 A+ B F -16 F D+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 40 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 6% -10  2 - 2 -11 +4 A+ D+ F -14 D+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 24 197 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 40% +17  3 - 2 +36 +30 C+ A+ A +11 B+ B C-
 Sat, Nov 29 145 Mercer L 84 - 91 52% -1  3 - 3 -9 +0 D D+ F -9 C- A- F+
 Wed, Dec 3 160 Furman L 88 - 97 55% +1  3 - 4 -12 +12 B- C A+ -23 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 184 @Wofford W 73 - 52 39% +21  4 - 4 +22 +10 A- F+ D +15 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 309 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 83% -4  5 - 4 -6 +7 B- F A -13 D+ D+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 117 Richmond W 73 - 70 44% -2  6 - 4 +3 +3 A F D- -0 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 60 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 10% +6  6 - 5 +11 +15 A A+ F+ -4 B F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 252 Northeastern W 103 - 91 73% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +21 A+ A+ D -17 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 154 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 54% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -7 +3 C C- A+ -10 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 288 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 59% +6  8 - 6 2 - 1 +1 -4 D- C+ C- +5 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 222 Campbell W 83 - 82 68% -6  9 - 6 3 - 1 -6 +8 B- A+ B -14 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 252 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 52% -4  9 - 7 3 - 2 -9 -4 C+ D F -5 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 134 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 27% +3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +9 +22 A+ D A- -13 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 168 Towson L 59 - 72 58% -5  10 - 8 4 - 3 -17 -3 D+ C F -16 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 154 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 31% -10  10 - 9 4 - 4 -7 -3 D C D- -4 D C- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 135 William & Mary W 79 - 76 49% -4  11 - 9 5 - 4 +2 +10 B- C+ A+ -8 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 31 223 Stony Brook W 76 - 71 68%
 Thu, Feb 5 237 @Hampton L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 201 Drexel W 72 - 68 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 115 @UNC Wilmington L 71 - 79 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 135 @William & Mary L 80 - 86 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 288 N.C. A&T W 84 - 76 77%
 Thu, Feb 26 168 @Towson L 68 - 72 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 @Monmouth L 73 - 75 41%
 Tue, Mar 3 115 UNC Wilmington L 74 - 76 43%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2 +3 B C+ C+ -5 D+ D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 2.8 0.8 0.1 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.5 7.1 2.1 0.1 11.8 3rd
4th 0.6 7.9 4.8 0.2 13.5 4th
5th 0.0 4.3 8.9 1.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.7 10.4 3.1 0.0 14.2 6th
7th 0.1 5.4 7.2 0.2 12.9 7th
8th 1.0 7.6 1.3 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 3.8 4.3 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.9 3.8 0.5 5.2 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.0 2.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.4 2.5 9.9 18.5 23.7 22.8 15.1 5.6 1.4 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 66.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1
13-5 36.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2
12-6 8.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 30.6% 30.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.4% 16.5% 16.5% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.2
12-6 5.6% 13.5% 13.5% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 4.9
11-7 15.1% 11.0% 11.0% 14.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 13.4
10-8 22.8% 5.3% 5.3% 14.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 21.6
9-9 23.7% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 23.1
8-10 18.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 18.0
7-11 9.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.7
6-12 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.5
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 14.2 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%