Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 204
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 206
Pace 67.7 206
Improvement -2.8 295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 120 B- C+ C+ C A-
Defense D 305 D+ D C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 34 C 58% 166 +3.7 57
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 339 D 34% 304 -4.4 355
Three Pointers 44% 109 B- 36% 108 +2.9 82
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 15 C+ +0.7 139
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 103
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 121 C- 1.00 213 C+ 0.33 141
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 144
Freethrows C 0.31 164 C- 71% 237 C 0.22 181
Total Offense C+ +1.7 120

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 222 D+ 12.6% 275
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 316 D+ 6.5% 272
Three Pointers B 90% 58 C- 1.1% 253
Total C+ 59% 107 D 6.8% 303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 308 B- 55% 91 -3.8 59
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 242 C 38% 190 -1.0 108
Three Pointers 48% 24 F+ 39% 353 +6.9 358
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 155 D+ +2.3 266
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 254
Second Chance D+ 33.3% 294 D 1.13 312 D 0.38 323
Turnovers C- 15.8% 243
Freethrows C+ 0.29 154 C+ 71% 116 C+ 0.21 141
Total Defense D -4.4 305

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 280 C- 10.2% 200
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 281 D+ 3.3% 275
Three Pointers C- 86% 221 C+ 1.3% 96
Total D 63% 330 D+ 4.6% 259

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 174 17.4 194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 226 0.17 183
Improvement -4.9 #353 +2.1 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.4
.500 or above 30% 37% 8%
.500 or above in Conference 24% 30% 4%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 76.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 9
Quad 48 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 300 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 59% +1  45% 1 - 0 C- -3 B- +5 D+ D- A+ F+ -8 F B C-
 Wed, Nov 12 173 @Marshall L 89 - 96 32% -6  3% 1 - 1 D+ -5 B- +4 B- C A- F+ -9 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95% +16  94% 2 - 1 D -10 C+ +2 A B+ F F -13 F+ D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 40 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 5% -10  0% 2 - 2 D -11 C +1 A+ D+ F F -11 D+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 174 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 32% +17  97% 3 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +28 B- A+ A- A+ +14 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 175 Mercer L 84 - 91 55% -1  48% 3 - 3 D -11 D+ -3 D+ D F D- -8 D- B F
 Wed, Dec 3 179 Furman L 88 - 97 56% +1  42% 3 - 4 D- -13 B+ +9 C+ B- A+ F -22 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 230 @Wofford W 73 - 52 43% +21  99% 4 - 4 A +20 B- +5 A- F D- A+ +18 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 320 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 84% -4  7% 5 - 4 D+ -7 B- +5 C+ F A F -12 D+ F+ F+
 Wed, Dec 17 129 Richmond W 73 - 70 43% -2  18% 6 - 4 C+ +2 C +1 A F D- C+ +2 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 58 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 9% +6  84% 6 - 5 B +11 A +12 A A+ F+ C -1 B+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 289 Northeastern W 103 - 91 77% +5  98% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C +2 A+ +18 A+ A+ D F -16 F D+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 152 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 50% -7  2% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 C C A+ F+ -8 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 290 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 56% +6  94% 8 - 6 2 - 1 C +1 D- -6 F+ C C A- +7 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 194 Campbell W 83 - 82 59% -6  4% 9 - 6 3 - 1 C- -4 B +7 B- A+ B+ F -11 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 289 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 56% -4  19% 9 - 7 3 - 2 D- -11 D- -7 C+ D F D+ -4 C F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 108 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 18% +3  73% 10 - 7 4 - 2 B +11 A+ +21 A+ C- A F -10 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 168 Towson L 59 - 72 53% -5  21% 10 - 8 4 - 3 F+ -16 D -5 C- C F F -14 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 152 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 28% -10  0% 10 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -7 D -4 D C+ D- C- -2 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 135 William & Mary W 79 - 76 45% -4  19% 11 - 9 5 - 4 C +2 B +6 B- B- A+ D+ -4 C- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 216 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 63% -6  7% 11 - 10 5 - 5 D -10 F+ -9 C+ F D+ C -1 C F B-
 Thu, Feb 5 258 @Hampton L 79 - 87 2OT 49% -0  48% 11 - 11 5 - 6 D -11 D -4 D+ D C D -5 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 222 Drexel L 77 - 82 64% -6  0% 11 - 12 5 - 7 D- -11 B- +4 D A+ C+ F -15 F+ C+ F
 Thu, Feb 12 112 @UNC Wilmington L 54 - 65 19% -9  1% 11 - 13 5 - 8 C- -4 F+ -10 F D+ C+ B- +3 D D A
 Sat, Feb 14 135 @William & Mary W 81 - 78 24% +1  57% 12 - 13 6 - 8 B- +8 B +6 D B- A+ B- +2 B- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 290 N.C. A&T W 82 - 74 76%
 Thu, Feb 26 168 @Towson L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 190 @Monmouth L 73 - 77 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 112 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 76 38%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -3 C+ +2 A+ C+ A- D -4 B- C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B- C+ 45% 22% 44% A- B- C+ C- C+ C+ C C- C D B- C F+ D+ 34% 19% 48% C D+ D+ D D C- C+ C+ C+
1.11 58% 34% 36% +1 +2 1.07 32% 1.0 .33 16% .31 71% .22 1.15 55% 38% 39% +2 0 1.07 33% 1.1 .38 16% .29 71% .22
Nov
8		 UNC Greensboro B- D F A- D 38% 16% 47% B- D+ A F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F+ B+ D+ F F 30% 19% 51% C- F D A+ B C- D- A+ C
1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30 1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25
Nov
12		 Marshall B- A F D C 37% 7% 56% A B- C B- C A- C- C+ C- F+ C C F D- 31% 15% 54% F+ F+ B F F C+ F B+ F+
1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24 1.26 63% 38% 43% +8 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24
Nov
15		 Gardner-Webb C+ C+ D+ A+ A 33% 12% 55% C+ A D+ A+ B+ F A F B F F F+ B- F 42% 20% 38% B- F+ F A+ D- D- B- A B
1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25 1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
20		 Miami (FL) C B D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A A+ D- B+ D+ F A F C+ F D+ B- F D 44% 20% 35% B- D+ F F F D D+ C- D+
0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +1 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18 1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25
Nov
24		 Appalachian St. A+ B+ A+ F C+ 37% 16% 47% C+ B- A+ A+ A+ A- B- A+ A- A+ B- A+ A A 30% 9% 61% D+ A- A- C+ B+ C- F A+ C-
1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25 0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21
Nov
29		 Mercer D+ C+ F D+ D- 49% 7% 44% A D+ A+ F D F A+ C- A+ D- C A+ F D- 31% 17% 52% C- D- A+ F B F F D+ F
1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32 1.18 59% 22% 43% +5 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34
Dec
3		 Furman B+ D F B- C- 45% 2% 53% A+ C+ C+ B B- A+ A+ B A+ F F D+ F+ 38% 0% 62% F F D B+ C F F F F
1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29 1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38
Dec
6		 Wofford B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 52% 9% 39% A- A- A- F F D- C- C C- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 4% 64% D A+ C+ A+ B+ C B A+ A
1.20 54% 75% 44% +7 +3 1.22 39% 0.5 .21 18% .28 79% .22 0.85 47% 0% 23% -15 +2 0.74 28% 0.7 .20 15% .29 60% .17
Dec
13		 Northern Illinois B- A A+ F C 57% 10% 33% A- C+ B- F F A A+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ F D+ 35% 8% 57% C- D+ D F F+ F+ F F F
1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39 1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35
Dec
17		 Richmond C C- A+ A+ A 43% 12% 45% A+ A B- F F D- C+ C- C C+ A- D+ F D- 22% 26% 52% C+ D F C F A+ A+ F B
1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21 1.06 50% 42% 46% +8 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22
Dec
20		 Virginia Tech A A F B- A- 49% 8% 43% A+ A A+ C- A+ F+ D+ A+ C C A F C+ B+ 43% 32% 26% B+ B+ F D+ F A- F B+ F
1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17 1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35
Dec
29		 Northeastern A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 6% 45% A A+ A+ A+ A+ D A B- A F C+ A- F F 44% 19% 37% C F C- D+ D+ C+ C- B C
1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33 1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19
Dec
31		 College of Charleston C+ C A+ F D+ 45% 10% 45% A+ C F+ A+ C A+ A- D- B F+ A+ F D B- 43% 16% 41% F+ C+ D F F C- F F F
1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19 1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42
Jan
8		 N.C. A&T D- F F B+ F 56% 8% 36% A+ F+ C- B- C C B+ F C A- A D+ A+ A- 22% 24% 55% B- A- D- F F C A+ D A+
1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
10		 Campbell B D+ F A+ C 58% 8% 34% A+ B- C- A+ A+ B+ F F F F A- F F F 39% 15% 46% B- F A- C B+ F A C+ A
1.23 58% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.17 30% 1.9 .57 15% .17 40% .07 1.22 48% 50% 48% +7 +1 1.19 28% 1.0 .28 12% .29 71% .20
Jan
15		 Northeastern D- C- F A+ C 44% 8% 48% B+ C+ D- C D F D+ F F+ D+ C+ F+ C+ C 39% 19% 42% C+ C D+ F F D- A+ D A
1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19 1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12
Jan
17		 Hofstra A+ A D+ A+ A+ 52% 7% 41% A+ A+ C+ D- C- A A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F F 17% 31% 52% A+ F D A+ A- C F C F
1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37 1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29
Jan
22		 Towson D D+ F C D+ 37% 12% 51% B C- B+ F+ C F A- C- B+ F A- A+ F A 31% 29% 41% C A F F F F C- F F+
1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24 1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24
Jan
24		 College of Charleston D B+ A+ F D 27% 23% 50% C- D D+ B+ C+ D- A- B- A- C- F A+ B F+ 30% 28% 42% B+ D- F A- D+ A F A+ D+
0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22 1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29
Jan
29		 William & Mary B C- D B C 53% 6% 42% A B- C- A- B- A+ D- F+ D- D+ B A+ F+ C 40% 4% 56% D C- C- C+ C B A- D B+
1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15 1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Stony Brook F+ D+ C- B- C- 57% 6% 37% A+ C+ C+ F F D+ B- C- C+ C A+ D F+ C- 24% 18% 57% B+ C F F+ F B- F D F
0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23 1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27
Feb
5		 Hampton D A+ F C C- 31% 31% 38% F D+ C+ F D C A F B- D A+ B+ B+ A- 33% 30% 37% C+ A- D+ F F F F B- F
1.00 76% 24% 33% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 16% .46 60% .27 1.10 42% 29% 29% -11 -2 0.77 36% 1.5 .53 13% .54 70% .38
Feb
7		 Drexel B- D+ F F+ F+ 35% 14% 51% B D D A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F C- B- F F+ 33% 18% 49% C F+ A+ F C+ F F D F
1.14 53% 29% 28% -8 +1 0.88 26% 2.0 .53 15% .47 85% .40 1.21 59% 33% 44% +7 0 1.16 20% 1.1 .23 9% .39 71% .28
Feb
12		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F+ F F 29% 21% 50% B- F C+ F D+ C+ C+ F D+ B- A B- F D 25% 20% 55% C D B F D A A+ A+ A+
0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17 1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12
Feb
14		 William & Mary B F F A- D- 46% 13% 41% B D F A+ B- A+ B+ B- B+ B- C F A+ B- 43% 13% 43% C B- C- A+ A- D+ F B- D-
1.14 46% 14% 39% -5 +2 0.95 21% 1.8 .37 8% .34 73% .25 1.10 61% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 72% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 2.6 4th
5th 2.5 1.4 3.9 5th
6th 0.0 7.2 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 1.3 7.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 10.2 2.8 13.1 8th
9th 2.9 19.6 0.2 22.7 9th
10th 0.9 15.3 5.9 22.1 10th
11th 6.4 13.0 0.4 19.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 7.4 31.2 37.4 20.0 4.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 4.0% 7.5% 7.5% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 3.7
9-9 20.0% 3.0% 3.0% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 19.4
8-10 37.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 36.6
7-11 31.2% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.2 0.3 30.8
6-12 7.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 7.3
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.8 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 13.4 5.0 50.0 45.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%
Lose Out 4.3%