Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.8 242
Results Rating -4.5 240
Consistency 0.19 345
Pace 67.1 218
Improvement -6.5 357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 174 C+ C C C A-
Defense D 304 D+ D C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 35 C- 56% 242 +2.5 89
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 336 D 33% 318 -4.4 356
Three Pointers 44% 105 C+ 35% 121 +2.7 91
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.6 17 C- -0.7 196
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 140
Second Chance C+ 32.2% 118 D+ 0.97 272 C 0.31 169
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 246
Other Turnovers C+ 6.7% 120
Turnovers C 16.7% 183
Freethrows C 0.31 177 C 72% 215 C 0.22 179
Total Offense C -0.3 174

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 222 D 13.2% 309
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 24% 195 C 5.3% 205
Three Pointers B 89% 65 C 0.9% 203
Total B- 60% 90 D 6.9% 314


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 285 C+ 57% 132 -2.7 89
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 258 C 39% 205 -1.0 115
Three Pointers 47% 29 F+ 39% 355 +6.5 360
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 180 D +2.9 294
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 282
Second Chance D 33.5% 306 D+ 1.11 294 D 0.37 320
Turnovers from Steals C 9.5% 181
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 278
Turnovers C- 16.0% 219
Freethrows C+ 0.29 134 C 72% 156 C+ 0.21 126
Total Defense D -4.4 304

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 54% 301 C 10.5% 191
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 206 D+ 3.0% 293
Three Pointers C- 86% 254 C+ 1.2% 101
Total D 63% 329 C- 4.7% 240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 201 17.4 200
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 236 0.17 181
Consistency 0.14 293 0.15 326
Improvement -8.7 365 +2.2 85

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 244 242 241
Results Rating Rank 241 239 237
Conference Record 6 - 12 6 - 12 6 - 12
Conference Finish 11 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 33 - 75 - 10
Quad 47 - 812 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 297 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 51% +1  45% 1 - 0 C- -3 B- +5 D D- A+ F+ -9 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 201 @Marshall L 89 - 96 29% -6  3% 1 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +3 B- C A- F+ -9 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 360 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 92% +16  94% 2 - 1 D -10 C+ +3 A B F F -13 F D- D
 Thu, Nov 20 30 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 3% -10  0% 2 - 2 D -9 C +1 A+ C- F F+ -9 D+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 189 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 28% +17  97% 3 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +28 C+ A+ A- A+ +14 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 187 Mercer L 84 - 91 49% -1  48% 3 - 3 D- -12 D+ -3 D+ D F D- -8 D B F
 Wed, Dec 3 177 Furman L 88 - 97 47% +1  42% 3 - 4 D- -13 B+ +9 C B- A+ F -22 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 245 @Wofford W 73 - 52 39% +21  99% 4 - 4 A +19 B- +5 A- F D- A+ +17 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 343 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 85% -4  7% 5 - 4 D -10 C+ +4 C+ F+ A- F -13 D+ F D-
 Wed, Dec 17 135 Richmond W 73 - 70 37% -2  18% 6 - 4 C +2 C +0 A F D- C+ +2 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 56 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 6% +6  84% 6 - 5 B+ +12 A +12 A A+ F+ C +0 A- F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 292 Northeastern W 103 - 91 71% +5  98% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C +1 A+ +17 A+ A+ F+ F -16 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 162 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 43% -7  2% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 C C- A+ D- -8 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 287 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 49% +6  94% 8 - 6 2 - 1 C +1 D- -8 F+ C C A- +8 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 179 Campbell W 83 - 82 48% -6  4% 9 - 6 3 - 1 C- -3 B +7 B A+ B F -10 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 292 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 49% -4  19% 9 - 7 3 - 2 D- -12 D- -8 C+ D F C- -3 C F D
 Sat, Jan 17 100 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 12% +3  73% 10 - 7 4 - 2 B+ +12 A+ +23 A+ C- A F -10 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 152 Towson L 59 - 72 41% -5  21% 10 - 8 4 - 3 F+ -16 D -4 C C F F -14 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 162 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 23% -10  0% 10 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -7 D -5 D- C D C- -2 D- C- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 151 William & Mary W 79 - 76 41% -4  19% 11 - 9 5 - 4 C +0 B- +5 C+ B- A+ D+ -5 C- C- B
 Sat, Jan 31 229 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 58% -6  7% 11 - 10 5 - 5 D -11 F+ -9 C F D+ C- -2 C F B-
 Thu, Feb 5 268 @Hampton L 79 - 87 2OT 43% -0  48% 11 - 11 5 - 6 D -11 D -5 D+ D- C D+ -5 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 212 Drexel L 77 - 82 55% -6  0% 11 - 12 5 - 7 D -11 B- +5 D A+ C+ F -16 F B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 114 @UNC Wilmington L 54 - 65 15% -9  1% 11 - 13 5 - 8 C- -5 F+ -9 F D+ C+ B- +3 D D A
 Sat, Feb 14 151 @William & Mary W 81 - 78 22% +1  57% 12 - 13 6 - 8 B- +6 B- +5 D- B A+ C+ +1 B- B+ D+
 Sat, Feb 21 287 N.C. A&T L 82 - 102 71% -10  1% 12 - 14 6 - 9 F -30 C+ +3 D+ A B- F -34 F F D
 Thu, Feb 26 152 @Towson L 56 - 58 22% -0  40% 12 - 15 6 - 10 C +1 D- -8 D+ F A- A +9 A B- D-
 Sat, Feb 28 169 @Monmouth L 57 - 73 24% -9  4% 12 - 16 6 - 11 D- -13 F+ -9 D F D+ D -6 D+ F B-
 Tue, Mar 3 114 UNC Wilmington L 57 - 76 31% -11  0% 12 - 17 6 - 12 F -19 F -15 F A F D+ -4 F D+ A+
 Sat, Mar 7 151 William & Mary L 62 - 72 31% -7  0% 12 - 18 D -10 F -12 C- F F B- +2 B- A C-
Totals 12 - 18 6 - 12 -5 C +0 F C- A- D -4 C+ C C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- D C+ C- 45% 23% 44% A- C+ C+ D+ C C C C C D C+ C F+ D 35% 18% 47% C D+ D D+ D C- C+ C C+
1.08 56% 33% 35% -1 +2 1.04 32% 1.0 .31 17% .31 72% .22 1.15 57% 39% 39% +3 0 1.08 34% 1.1 .37 16% .29 72% .22
Nov
8		 UNC Greensboro B- D F A- D- 38% 16% 47% B- D A F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F+ B C- F F 30% 19% 51% C- F D A+ B+ C- F+ A+ C
1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30 1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25
Nov
12		 Marshall C+ A F D C+ 37% 7% 56% A B- C- C+ C A- C- C C- F+ C- C F F+ 31% 15% 54% F+ F+ B- F F C+ F B+ F+
1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24 1.26 63% 38% 43% +8 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24
Nov
15		 Gardner-Webb C+ C+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 12% 55% C A D+ A+ B F A F B F F F+ B- F 42% 20% 38% B- F F A+ D- D B- A B
1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25 1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
20		 Miami (FL) C B D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A A+ D A- C- F A F C+ F+ D B- F D+ 44% 20% 35% B- D+ F D- F D D+ C D+
0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +2 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18 1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25
Nov
24		 Appalachian St. A+ B+ A+ F C+ 37% 16% 47% B- C+ A+ A+ A+ A- B A+ A A+ B A+ A A 30% 9% 61% D+ A- A C+ B+ C- F A+ C-
1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25 0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21
Nov
29		 Mercer D+ B- F D+ D- 49% 7% 44% A D+ A+ F D F A+ D A+ D- C A+ F D- 31% 17% 52% D+ D A+ F B F F D F
1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32 1.18 59% 22% 43% +4 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34
Dec
3		 Furman B+ D F B- D+ 45% 2% 53% A+ C B- B- B- A+ A+ B+ A+ F F C- F 38% 0% 62% F F D A- C+ F F F F
1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29 1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38
Dec
6		 Wofford B- D+ A+ A+ B+ 52% 9% 39% B+ A- A F F D- D+ C+ D+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 4% 64% D A+ C A+ B+ C B A+ A-
1.20 54% 75% 44% +7 +3 1.22 39% 0.5 .21 18% .28 79% .22 0.85 47% 0% 23% -15 +2 0.74 28% 0.7 .20 15% .29 60% .17
Dec
13		 Northern Illinois C+ A A+ F C- 57% 10% 33% A- C+ B- F F+ A- A+ C A+ F B+ A+ F D+ 35% 8% 57% C- D+ F+ F F D- F F F
1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39 1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35
Dec
17		 Richmond C C- A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% A+ A B- F F D- C+ D+ C C+ A D+ F D- 22% 26% 52% B- D F C+ F A+ A+ F B
1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21 1.06 50% 42% 46% +8 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22
Dec
20		 Virginia Tech A A F B A- 49% 8% 43% A+ A A+ C A+ F+ D A+ C C A F B- A- 43% 32% 26% B+ A- F D+ F A- F A- F
1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17 1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35
Dec
29		 Northeastern A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 6% 45% A A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A B- A F C+ A- F F 44% 19% 37% C- F C C- C- C+ C- B C
1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33 1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19
Dec
31		 College of Charleston C C A+ F D+ 45% 10% 45% A+ C F+ A C- A+ A- F+ B D- A+ F D B- 43% 16% 41% F+ C+ D F F C F F F
1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19 1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42
Jan
8		 N.C. A&T D- F F B+ F 56% 8% 36% A+ F+ C- B- C C A- F C+ A- A D+ A+ A 22% 24% 55% C+ A D- F F C A+ D A+
1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
10		 Campbell B D+ F A+ C+ 58% 8% 34% A+ B C- A+ A+ B F F F F A- F F F 39% 15% 46% B F A C B+ F A+ C+ A
1.23 58% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.17 30% 1.9 .57 15% .17 40% .07 1.22 48% 50% 48% +7 +1 1.19 28% 1.0 .28 12% .29 71% .20
Jan
15		 Northeastern D- C- F A+ C 44% 8% 48% B+ C+ D C- D F D F F C- C+ F+ B- C 39% 19% 42% C C D+ F F D A+ D A
1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19 1.13 57% 45% 32% -1 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12
Jan
17		 Hofstra A+ A D+ A+ A+ 52% 7% 41% A+ A+ C+ D C- A A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F F 17% 31% 52% A+ F D A+ A- C F C F
1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37 1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29
Jan
22		 Towson D D+ F C+ C- 37% 12% 51% B C B F+ C F A C A- F A- A+ F A+ 31% 29% 41% C A F F F F C- F D-
1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24 1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24
Jan
24		 College of Charleston D B+ A+ F D- 27% 23% 50% C- D- D+ B C D A C+ A- C- F A+ B+ F 30% 28% 42% B+ D- F A C- A+ F A+ D
0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22 1.11 100% 21% 29% +4 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29
Jan
29		 William & Mary B- C- D- B C- 53% 6% 42% A C+ C A B- A+ D- F F+ D+ B A+ F C- 40% 4% 56% D C- C- C C- B A+ D A
1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15 1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Stony Brook F+ D+ D+ B- D+ 57% 6% 37% A+ C C+ F F D+ C+ C C+ C- A+ D F+ C 24% 18% 57% B+ C F F F B- F D+ F
0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23 1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27
Feb
5		 Hampton D A+ F C C- 31% 31% 38% F D+ C F D- C A- F C+ D+ A+ B+ B+ A- 33% 30% 37% B- A- D F F F F B- F
1.00 76% 24% 33% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 16% .46 60% .27 1.10 42% 29% 29% -11 -2 0.77 36% 1.5 .53 13% .54 70% .38
Feb
7		 Drexel B- D+ F F+ D- 35% 14% 51% B D D A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F D+ B- F F 33% 18% 49% C F A+ F B- F F D F
1.14 53% 29% 28% -8 +1 0.88 26% 2.0 .53 15% .47 85% .40 1.21 59% 33% 44% +7 0 1.16 20% 1.1 .23 9% .39 71% .28
Feb
12		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F+ F F 29% 21% 50% C+ F B- F D+ C+ C+ F D+ B- A C+ F D- 25% 20% 55% C+ D B+ F D A A+ A+ A+
0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17 1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12
Feb
14		 William & Mary B- F F A- F+ 46% 13% 41% B D- F A+ B A+ B+ C+ B+ C+ C F A B- 43% 13% 43% C+ B- D+ A+ B+ D+ D- B- D
1.14 46% 14% 39% -5 +2 0.95 21% 1.8 .37 8% .34 73% .25 1.10 61% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 72% .30
Feb
21		 N.C. A&T C+ F F A D 40% 11% 49% B+ D+ A B A B- B- B+ B F F F F F 43% 31% 27% D+ F F C- F D C- F F+
1.21 48% 17% 42% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .43 12% .33 75% .25 1.51 81% 67% 54% +26 -1 1.53 50% 1.1 .55 16% .37 86% .32
Feb
26		 Towson D- F F A+ D- 57% 6% 36% A+ D+ F+ F F A- D+ C C- A D A+ A+ A+ 38% 23% 38% F+ A A- D+ B- D- D F F+
0.91 41% 0% 41% -9 +3 0.91 20% 0.7 .14 11% .24 69% .16 0.94 61% 27% 17% -11 0 0.79 30% 0.9 .27 13% .32 76% .24
Feb
28		 Monmouth F+ A+ C- F D+ 34% 25% 41% D- D F F F D+ B A A- D A- F D- D 31% 25% 44% C D+ F D+ F B- D+ F F+
0.90 73% 36% 22% -2 -1 0.95 23% 0.4 .10 21% .32 81% .26 1.16 47% 50% 38% +2 -1 1.04 39% 1.1 .42 19% .31 88% .27
Mar
3		 UNC Wilmington F F C+ F F 38% 11% 51% A+ F B A+ A F A- A+ A+ D+ F C+ F F 29% 12% 59% D- F C+ D- D+ A+ A+ A+ A+
0.85 33% 40% 17% -23 +1 0.60 31% 1.3 .41 19% .33 89% .30 1.14 71% 33% 41% +10 0 1.22 33% 1.2 .39 22% .17 33% .06
Mar
7		 William & Mary F F A+ A+ D+ 43% 5% 52% A- C- B+ F F F A+ B- A+ B- C+ A+ F B- 50% 15% 35% C B- C- A+ A C- F B F
0.92 32% 100% 43% -1 +2 1.05 36% 0.5 .17 28% .39 74% .29 1.06 58% 0% 41% -2 +2 1.02 27% 0.7 .18 16% .49 71% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 100.0% 100.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%