Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.7 227
Results Rating -3.1 216
Consistency 0.20 354
Pace 67.7 206
Improvement -4.8 339

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 119 B- C+ C+ C A-
Defense D 324 D+ D- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 38 C 58% 176 +3.4 66
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 338 D 33% 330 -4.5 358
Three Pointers 45% 99 B- 36% 104 +3.2 72
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 17 C +0.6 146
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 106
Second Chance B- 32.9% 102 C- 1.01 207 C+ 0.33 124
Turnovers from Steals C 9.6% 191
Other Turnovers B- 6.7% 97
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 140
Freethrows C 0.31 172 C- 71% 229 C 0.22 181
Total Offense C+ +1.9 119

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 46% 229 D+ 12.4% 267
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 17% 304 C- 6.2% 257
Three Pointers B- 89% 76 C- 1.1% 255
Total C+ 59% 112 D+ 6.7% 295

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 C+ 56% 114 -3.3 72
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 239 C- 40% 250 -0.7 131
Three Pointers 47% 28 F+ 39% 356 +6.9 360
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 155 D +3.1 302
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 279
Second Chance D 33.9% 315 D 1.12 305 D- 0.38 329
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.0% 214
Other Turnovers D+ 6.7% 261
Turnovers C- 15.8% 243
Freethrows C+ 0.29 152 C 72% 156 C+ 0.21 139
Total Defense D -5.6 324

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 52% 257 C- 10.1% 205
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 236 D+ 3.0% 296
Three Pointers C- 85% 217 C+ 1.2% 104
Total D 62% 315 D+ 4.6% 258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 170 17.5 213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 230 0.17 168
Consistency 0.13 212 0.15 345
Improvement -4.5 347 -0.3 207

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 255 230 199
Results Rating Rank 264 224 185
Conference Record 6 - 12 7 - 11 8 - 10
Conference Finish 11 10 8
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.2 15.7
.500 or above 7% 18% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 3% 11% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Towson (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 35 - 57 - 9
Quad 47 - 814 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 302 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 57% +1  45% 1 - 0 C- -3 B- +5 D D- A+ F+ -8 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 175 @Marshall L 89 - 96 29% -6  3% 1 - 1 D+ -5 B- +4 B- C A- F+ -8 F+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 364 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 94% +16  94% 2 - 1 D -11 C+ +2 A B+ F F -14 F D- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 39 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 4% -10  0% 2 - 2 D -10 C +1 A+ C- F F -10 D+ F D
 Mon, Nov 24 171 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 28% +17  97% 3 - 2 A+ +37 A+ +28 B- A+ A A+ +14 A- B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 182 Mercer L 84 - 91 52% -1  48% 3 - 3 D- -11 D+ -3 D+ D F D- -8 D B F
 Wed, Dec 3 174 Furman L 88 - 97 51% +1  42% 3 - 4 D- -13 A- +10 C+ B- A+ F -22 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 231 @Wofford W 73 - 52 39% +21  99% 4 - 4 A +20 B +6 A- F D- A+ +18 A+ B+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 320 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 82% -4  7% 5 - 4 D+ -7 B- +5 C+ F+ A F -12 D+ F+ F+
 Wed, Dec 17 132 Richmond W 73 - 70 39% -2  18% 6 - 4 C+ +2 C -0 A F D- B- +2 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 55 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 7% +6  84% 6 - 5 B+ +12 A +12 A A+ F+ C -1 B+ F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 290 Northeastern W 103 - 91 75% +5  98% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C +1 A+ +17 A+ A+ D F -16 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 151 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 46% -7  2% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -7 C+ +2 C C A+ F+ -8 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 270 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 48% +6  94% 8 - 6 2 - 1 C+ +2 D- -6 F+ C C A +8 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 195 Campbell W 83 - 82 55% -6  4% 9 - 6 3 - 1 C- -4 B +7 B A+ B+ F -11 F B F
 Thu, Jan 15 290 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 54% -4  19% 9 - 7 3 - 2 D- -12 D- -8 C+ D F D+ -4 C F D
 Sat, Jan 17 105 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 15% +3  73% 10 - 7 4 - 2 B +11 A+ +21 A+ C- A- F -10 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 172 Towson L 59 - 72 50% -5  21% 10 - 8 4 - 3 F+ -17 D -5 C- C F F -14 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 151 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 25% -10  0% 10 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -7 D+ -4 D C+ D C- -2 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 135 William & Mary W 79 - 76 41% -4  19% 11 - 9 5 - 4 C +2 B +6 B- B- A+ D+ -4 C- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 214 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 59% -6  7% 11 - 10 5 - 5 D -10 F+ -9 C+ F D+ C -1 C+ F B-
 Thu, Feb 5 260 @Hampton L 79 - 87 2OT 46% -0  48% 11 - 11 5 - 6 D -11 D -4 D+ D C D -5 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 215 Drexel L 77 - 82 59% -6  0% 11 - 12 5 - 7 D -11 B- +4 D A+ C+ F -15 F+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 110 @UNC Wilmington L 54 - 65 16% -9  1% 11 - 13 5 - 8 C- -4 F+ -9 F D+ C+ B- +3 D D A
 Sat, Feb 14 135 @William & Mary W 81 - 78 22% +1  57% 12 - 13 6 - 8 B- +8 B +6 D B- A+ C+ +2 B- A- D+
 Sat, Feb 21 270 N.C. A&T L 82 - 102 70% -10  1% 12 - 14 6 - 9 F -29 B- +4 C- A B- F -34 F F D
 Thu, Feb 26 172 @Towson L 68 - 74 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 198 @Monmouth L 73 - 78 33%
 Tue, Mar 3 110 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 77 34%
Totals 13 - 16 7 - 11 -4 C+ +2 B+ C A- D -6 B- C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B- C 44% 22% 45% A- B- B- C- C+ C+ C C- C D C+ C- F+ D 34% 19% 47% C D+ D D D- C- C+ C C+
1.11 58% 33% 36% +1 +2 1.07 33% 1.0 .33 16% .31 71% .22 1.17 56% 40% 39% +3 0 1.08 34% 1.1 .38 16% .29 72% .22
Nov
8		 UNC Greensboro B- D F A- D- 38% 16% 47% B- D A F D- A+ A+ C- A+ F+ B+ D+ F F 30% 19% 51% C- F D A+ B+ C- F+ A+ C
1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30 1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25
Nov
12		 Marshall B- A F D C+ 37% 7% 56% A B- C- C+ C A- D+ C+ C- F+ C C F D- 31% 15% 54% F+ F+ B F F C+ F B+ F+
1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24 1.26 63% 38% 43% +8 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24
Nov
15		 Gardner-Webb C+ C+ D+ A+ A 33% 12% 55% C+ A D+ A+ B+ F A F B F F F+ B- F 42% 20% 38% B- F F A+ D- D- B- A B
1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25 1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
20		 Miami (FL) C B D+ A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A A+ D A- C- F A- F C+ F D B- F D 44% 20% 35% B- D+ F F+ F D D+ C D+
0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +2 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18 1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25
Nov
24		 Appalachian St. A+ B+ A+ F C+ 37% 16% 47% C+ B- A+ A+ A+ A B A+ A- A+ B A+ A A 30% 9% 61% D+ A- A- C+ B+ C- F A+ C-
1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25 0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21
Nov
29		 Mercer D+ C+ F D+ D- 49% 7% 44% A D+ A+ F D F A+ D A+ D- C A+ F D- 31% 17% 52% C- D A+ F B F F D F
1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +3 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32 1.18 59% 22% 43% +4 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34
Dec
3		 Furman A- D F B- C- 45% 2% 53% A+ C+ B- B- B- A+ A+ B+ A+ F F D+ F 38% 0% 62% F F D B+ C+ F F F F
1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29 1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38
Dec
6		 Wofford B D+ A+ A+ B+ 52% 9% 39% B+ A- A F F D- D+ C+ C- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 4% 64% D A+ C A+ B+ C B A+ A-
1.20 54% 75% 44% +7 +3 1.22 39% 0.5 .21 18% .28 79% .22 0.85 47% 0% 23% -15 +2 0.74 28% 0.7 .20 15% .29 60% .17
Dec
13		 Northern Illinois B- A A+ F C 57% 10% 33% A- C+ B- F F+ A A+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ F D+ 35% 8% 57% C- D+ D F F+ F+ F F F
1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39 1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35
Dec
17		 Richmond C C- A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% A+ A B- F F D- C+ D+ C B- A D+ F D- 22% 26% 52% C+ D F C+ F A+ A+ F B
1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21 1.06 50% 42% 46% +8 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22
Dec
20		 Virginia Tech A A F B A- 49% 8% 43% A+ A A+ C A+ F+ D+ A+ C C A F C+ B+ 43% 32% 26% B+ B+ F D+ F A- F B+ F
1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17 1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35
Dec
29		 Northeastern A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 6% 45% A A+ A+ A+ A+ D A B A F C+ A- F F 44% 19% 37% C F C- D+ C- C+ C- B C
1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33 1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19
Dec
31		 College of Charleston C+ C A+ F D+ 45% 10% 45% A+ C D- A+ C A+ A- D- B F+ A+ F D B- 43% 16% 41% F+ C+ D- F F C- F F F
1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19 1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42
Jan
8		 N.C. A&T D- F F B+ F 56% 8% 36% A+ F+ C- B- C C B+ F C A A D+ A+ A 22% 24% 55% B- A D- F F C A+ D+ A+
1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
10		 Campbell B C- F A+ C+ 58% 8% 34% A+ B C- A+ A+ B+ F F F F A- F F F 39% 15% 46% B- F A- C B F A C+ A
1.23 58% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.17 30% 1.9 .57 15% .17 40% .07 1.22 48% 50% 48% +7 +1 1.19 28% 1.0 .28 12% .29 71% .20
Jan
15		 Northeastern D- C- F A+ C 44% 8% 48% B+ C+ D- C D F D+ F F+ D+ C+ F+ C+ C 39% 19% 42% C+ C D+ F F D A+ D A
1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19 1.13 57% 45% 32% -1 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12
Jan
17		 Hofstra A+ A D+ A+ A+ 52% 7% 41% A+ A+ C+ D- C- A- A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F F 17% 31% 52% A+ F D- A+ A- C F C F
1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37 1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29
Jan
22		 Towson D D+ F C+ D+ 37% 12% 51% B C- B+ F+ C F A- C- B+ F A- A+ F A 31% 29% 41% C A F F F F C- F D-
1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24 1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24
Jan
24		 College of Charleston D+ B+ A+ F D- 27% 23% 50% C- D D+ B+ C+ D A- B- A- C- F A+ B F+ 30% 28% 42% B+ D- F A- D+ A F A+ D+
0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22 1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29
Jan
29		 William & Mary B C- D B C 53% 6% 42% A B- C- A- B- A+ D- F+ D- D+ B A+ F+ C 40% 4% 56% D C- C- C+ C B A- D B+
1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15 1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Stony Brook F+ D+ C- B- C- 57% 6% 37% A+ C+ C+ F F D+ B- C- C+ C A+ D F+ C 24% 18% 57% B+ C+ F F+ F B- F D+ F
0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23 1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27
Feb
5		 Hampton D A+ F C C- 31% 31% 38% F D+ C+ F D C A- F C+ D A+ B+ B+ A- 33% 30% 37% C+ A- D+ F F F F B- F
1.00 76% 24% 33% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 16% .46 60% .27 1.10 42% 29% 29% -11 -2 0.77 36% 1.5 .53 13% .54 70% .38
Feb
7		 Drexel B- D+ F F+ D- 35% 14% 51% B D D A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F C- B F F+ 33% 18% 49% C F+ A+ F B- F F D F
1.14 53% 29% 28% -8 +1 0.88 26% 2.0 .53 15% .47 85% .40 1.21 59% 33% 44% +7 0 1.16 20% 1.1 .23 9% .39 71% .28
Feb
12		 UNC Wilmington F+ F+ F+ F F 29% 21% 50% C+ F C+ F D+ C+ C+ F D+ B- A C+ F D- 25% 20% 55% C D B F D A A+ A+ A+
0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17 1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12
Feb
14		 William & Mary B F F A- D- 46% 13% 41% B D F A+ B- A+ B+ B- B+ C+ C F A+ B- 43% 13% 43% C B- C- A+ A- D+ F B- D-
1.14 46% 14% 39% -5 +2 0.95 21% 1.8 .37 8% .34 73% .25 1.10 61% 57% 26% -1 +1 1.02 28% 0.8 .22 15% .42 72% .30
Feb
21		 N.C. A&T B- F F A D+ 40% 11% 49% B C- A B A B- B- B+ B F F F F F 43% 31% 27% C- F F C- F D C- F D-
1.21 48% 17% 42% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .43 12% .33 75% .25 1.51 81% 67% 54% +26 -1 1.53 50% 1.1 .55 16% .37 86% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.4 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 1.5 6th
7th 1.6 1.2 2.8 7th
8th 0.4 9.4 0.4 10.1 8th
9th 11.5 9.5 0.0 21.0 9th
10th 5.1 22.0 0.9 28.0 10th
11th 26.8 9.0 0.0 35.8 11th
12th 0.4 0.4 12th
13th 13th
Total 32.3 42.9 21.5 3.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 3.3% 3.0% 3.0% 14.0 0.1 3.2
8-10 21.5% 1.8% 1.8% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 21.1
7-11 42.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.1 0.4 42.4
6-12 32.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 31.9
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.5 98.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 18.3%