Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.1 220
Expected Predictive Rating -3.1 216
Pace 67.7 211
Improvement -3.7 320

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 123 B- C C C A-
Defense D 310 D+ D- C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 35 C+ 59% 141 +4.0 51
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 346 D+ 35% 285 -4.4 356
Three Pointers 45% 101 B- 36% 107 +3.2 76
Shot Selection/Accuracy A- +1.7 14 C+ +1.2 127
1st FG Attempt B- 1.08 93
Second Chance B- 33.0% 107 C- 0.98 246 C 0.32 147
Turnovers C 16.7% 166
Freethrows C 0.31 166 C- 71% 238 C 0.22 180
Total Offense C+ +1.7 123

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 308 B- 55% 92 +3.9 58
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 249 C+ 37% 154 +1.2 97
Three Pointers 48% 24 F+ 39% 356 -7.5 359
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 156 D+ +2.6 284
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 263
Second Chance D+ 33.2% 293 D- 1.15 325 D- 0.38 327
Turnovers C- 15.8% 248
Freethrows C+ 0.29 144 C+ 71% 119 C+ 0.21 125
Total Defense D -4.8 310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 170 17.4 210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 234 0.17 175
Improvement -5.3 #355 +1.6 #100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 14.8 15.4
.500 or above 13% 31% 8%
.500 or above in Conference 8% 24% 3%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 1% 0% 1%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Away) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 10
Quad 47 - 714 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 300 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 58% +1  45% 1 - 0 C- -3 B +6 D+ D A+ D- -9 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 165 @Marshall L 89 - 96 29% -6  3% 1 - 1 C- -4 B +6 B C+ A- F+ -10 F+ F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95% +16  94% 2 - 1 D -11 C+ +2 A B+ F F -13 F D D-
 Thu, Nov 20 41 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 5% -10  0% 2 - 2 D -11 C +1 A+ D+ F F+ -11 C- F D
 Mon, Nov 24 160 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 29% +17  97% 3 - 2 A+ +38 A+ +29 B- A+ A A+ +14 A- B C-
 Sat, Nov 29 173 Mercer L 84 - 91 52% -1  48% 3 - 3 D -11 C- -2 D+ D+ F D- -8 D- B+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 177 Furman L 88 - 97 53% +1  42% 3 - 4 D- -13 A- +9 C+ C+ A+ F -22 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 212 @Wofford W 73 - 52 38% +21  99% 4 - 4 A +21 B +6 A- F D A+ +18 A+ B C
 Sat, Dec 13 314 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 80% -4  7% 5 - 4 D+ -6 B- +5 B- F+ A F -11 D+ D- D-
 Wed, Dec 17 127 Richmond W 73 - 70 42% -2  18% 6 - 4 C+ +2 C +0 A F D- C+ +2 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 56 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 7% +6  84% 6 - 5 B+ +12 A +13 A A+ D- C -1 B+ F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 281 Northeastern W 103 - 91 74% +5  98% 7 - 5 1 - 0 C+ +2 A+ +17 A+ A+ D F -16 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 162 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 51% -7  2% 7 - 6 1 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 C C- A+ D- -8 C+ F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 285 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 54% +6  94% 8 - 6 2 - 1 C +1 D- -6 D- C+ C B+ +7 A- F C
 Sat, Jan 10 191 Campbell W 83 - 82 57% -6  4% 9 - 6 3 - 1 C- -4 B +6 B- A+ B+ F+ -10 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 281 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 53% -4  19% 9 - 7 3 - 2 D -11 D- -7 C+ D F C- -3 C+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 113 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 19% +3  73% 10 - 7 4 - 2 B +10 A+ +21 A+ C- A F+ -11 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 166 Towson L 59 - 72 51% -5  21% 10 - 8 4 - 3 F+ -16 D -5 C- C F F -14 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 162 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 29% -10  0% 10 - 9 4 - 4 D+ -7 D -5 D C D- C- -2 D- D+ A
 Thu, Jan 29 130 William & Mary W 79 - 76 42% -4  19% 11 - 9 5 - 4 C+ +2 B +6 B- B- A+ D+ -4 C- C+ B
 Sat, Jan 31 222 Stony Brook L 68 - 72 62% -6  7% 11 - 10 5 - 5 D -10 F+ -9 C+ F D C- -2 C F C+
 Thu, Feb 5 246 @Hampton L 79 - 87 2OT 44% -0  48% 11 - 11 5 - 6 D -10 D+ -4 D+ D C+ D+ -5 A- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 230 Drexel L 77 - 82 64% -6  0% 11 - 12 5 - 7 D- -12 C+ +3 D- A+ C+ F -15 F+ B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 112 @UNC Wilmington L 54 - 65 19% -9  1% 11 - 13 5 - 8 C- -5 F -10 F D+ C+ B- +3 D D+ A
 Sat, Feb 14 130 @William & Mary L 80 - 88 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 285 N.C. A&T W 82 - 75 74%
 Thu, Feb 26 166 @Towson L 67 - 73 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 189 @Monmouth L 72 - 76 35%
 Tue, Mar 3 112 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 76 38%
Totals 13 - 16 7 - 11 -3 F +2 D C+ A- D+ -5 B- C- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C+ D+ B- C+ 45% 11% 45% A- B- B- C- C C C C- C D B- C+ F+ D+ 34% 18% 48% C D+ D+ D- D- C- C+ C+ C+
1.11 59% 35% 36% +1 +2 1.08 33% 1.0 .32 17% .31 71% .22 1.15 55% 37% 39% +3 0 1.07 33% 1.1 .38 16% .29 71% .22
Nov
8		 UNC Greensboro B D F A- D 38% 16% 47% B- D+ A F D A+ A+ C- A+ D- B D+ F F 30% 19% 51% C- F D A+ B+ C- D- A+ C
1.23 55% 22% 41% +1 +1 1.05 40% 0.6 .26 5% .43 70% .30 1.21 50% 40% 52% +12 0 1.25 31% 0.7 .21 15% .42 59% .25
Nov
12		 Marshall B A F D+ C+ 37% 7% 56% A B C B- C+ A- C- B- C- F+ C C F F+ 31% 15% 54% F+ F+ B F F C F B+ F+
1.16 71% 25% 31% +2 +2 1.09 33% 1.0 .33 13% .33 73% .24 1.26 63% 38% 43% +9 0 1.19 28% 2.1 .59 18% .35 68% .24
Nov
15		 Gardner-Webb C+ C+ D+ A+ A 33% 12% 55% C+ A C- A+ B+ F A F+ B+ F F F+ B- F 42% 20% 38% C+ F F A+ D D- B- A B
1.26 65% 33% 50% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.4 .47 20% .38 65% .25 1.11 68% 42% 30% +3 0 1.08 40% 0.7 .29 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
20		 Miami (FL) C B C- A+ A+ 46% 13% 41% A A+ D- B+ D+ F A- F C+ F+ D+ B- F D+ 44% 20% 35% B C- F F F D C- C C-
0.98 62% 33% 47% +9 +1 1.24 18% 1.2 .21 25% .33 56% .18 1.35 67% 36% 42% +8 0 1.19 47% 1.3 .59 14% .36 70% .25
Nov
24		 Appalachian St. A+ B+ A+ F B- 37% 16% 47% C+ B- A+ A+ A+ A B A+ A A+ B- A+ A A 30% 9% 61% D+ A- A- C B C- F A+ C-
1.44 63% 63% 25% -1 +1 1.02 50% 1.6 .81 10% .31 82% .25 0.87 54% 25% 26% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.0 .24 15% .44 48% .21
Nov
29		 Mercer C- C+ F D+ D- 49% 7% 44% A D+ A+ F D+ F A+ C- A+ D- C A+ F F+ 31% 17% 52% C- D- A+ F B+ F F C- F
1.09 59% 0% 33% -3 +2 1.02 45% 0.6 .26 23% .44 73% .32 1.18 59% 22% 43% +5 0 1.11 22% 1.3 .27 12% .44 77% .34
Dec
3		 Furman A- D F B- C- 45% 2% 53% A+ C+ C+ C+ C+ A+ A+ B A+ F F D+ F+ 38% 0% 62% F F D B+ C F F F F
1.23 50% 0% 35% -3 +3 1.02 33% 1.1 .35 8% .38 76% .29 1.35 75% 34% +7 +3 1.21 33% 0.8 .28 11% .49 77% .38
Dec
6		 Wofford B D+ A+ A+ A- 52% 9% 39% A- A- A- F F D C- C+ C- A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 32% 4% 64% D A+ C A B C B- A+ A-
1.20 54% 75% 44% +7 +3 1.22 39% 0.5 .21 18% .28 79% .22 0.85 47% 0% 23% -15 +2 0.74 28% 0.7 .20 15% .29 60% .17
Dec
13		 Northern Illinois B- A A+ F C 57% 10% 33% A- B- C+ F F+ A A+ C+ A+ F B+ A+ F D+ 35% 8% 57% C- D+ D+ D- D- D- F F F
1.20 71% 60% 19% +2 +3 1.12 34% 0.6 .22 13% .53 73% .39 1.12 47% 0% 39% -2 +1 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 18% .47 74% .35
Dec
17		 Richmond C C- A+ A+ A- 43% 12% 45% A+ A B- F F D- C+ C- C C+ A- D+ F D- 22% 26% 52% C+ D F C F A+ A+ F B
1.10 57% 50% 41% +6 +1 1.16 33% 0.5 .15 20% .30 69% .21 1.06 50% 42% 46% +9 -2 1.15 39% 1.0 .39 30% .22 100% .22
Dec
20		 Virginia Tech A A F B A- 49% 8% 43% A+ A A+ C A+ D- D+ A+ C C A F C+ B+ 43% 32% 26% B+ B+ F C- F B+ F B+ F
1.17 69% 0% 35% +3 +2 1.13 47% 1.0 .47 22% .20 82% .17 1.18 50% 47% 33% -1 -1 0.98 49% 1.2 .57 19% .51 69% .35
Dec
29		 Northeastern A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 6% 45% A A+ A+ A+ A+ D A B- A F C+ A- F F 44% 19% 37% C+ F C D+ C- C+ C- B C
1.43 76% 67% 48% +20 +3 1.47 46% 1.3 .58 19% .43 76% .33 1.26 57% 30% 68% +17 +1 1.37 28% 1.1 .31 18% .29 65% .19
Dec
31		 College of Charleston C C A+ F D+ 45% 10% 45% A+ C D- A C- A+ B+ D- B- D- A+ F D B- 43% 16% 41% D- C+ D- F F C- F F F
1.10 59% 50% 26% -4 +2 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 8% .30 65% .19 1.15 43% 50% 35% -4 +1 0.96 33% 1.4 .45 16% .47 90% .42
Jan
8		 N.C. A&T D- F F B+ F 56% 8% 36% A+ D- C B- C+ C B+ F C B+ A D+ A A- 22% 24% 55% C+ A- D- F F C A+ D+ A+
1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22 0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13
Jan
10		 Campbell B D+ F A+ C 58% 8% 34% A+ B- C- A+ A+ B+ F F F F+ A- F F F 39% 15% 46% B- F A- C+ B+ F A+ C+ A
1.23 58% 25% 44% +4 +3 1.17 30% 1.9 .57 15% .17 40% .07 1.22 48% 50% 48% +8 +1 1.19 28% 1.0 .28 12% .29 71% .20
Jan
15		 Northeastern D- C- F A+ C 44% 8% 48% B+ C+ F+ C D F C- F F+ C- C+ F+ C+ C 39% 19% 42% B- C+ D+ F F D- A+ D A
1.03 59% 0% 46% +6 +2 1.18 26% 1.0 .26 24% .31 61% .19 1.13 57% 45% 32% 0 0 1.02 29% 1.9 .56 15% .17 73% .12
Jan
17		 Hofstra A+ A D+ A+ A+ 52% 7% 41% A+ A+ C+ F+ C- A A+ A A+ F+ B+ F F F 17% 31% 52% A+ F D A+ A- C F C F
1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37 1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29
Jan
22		 Towson D D+ F C+ D+ 37% 12% 51% B C- B+ F C F A- C- B+ F A- A+ F A 31% 29% 41% C+ A F F F F C- F D-
1.00 53% 20% 33% -4 +1 0.95 33% 0.8 .27 22% .35 69% .24 1.22 47% 0% 40% -11 -2 0.78 50% 1.1 .57 8% .30 81% .24
Jan
24		 College of Charleston D B+ A+ F D- 27% 23% 50% C- D D+ B C D- B+ B- B+ C- F A+ B F+ 30% 28% 42% A- D- F B+ D+ A F A+ C-
0.97 67% 54% 18% -6 -1 0.88 28% 1.1 .31 17% .30 72% .22 1.11 100% 21% 29% +5 -2 1.08 38% 0.9 .34 22% .46 62% .29
Jan
29		 William & Mary B D+ D B C 53% 6% 42% A B- C- A B- A+ D- F+ D- D+ B A+ F+ C 40% 4% 56% D C- C B- C+ B A- D B
1.19 57% 33% 36% +1 +3 1.09 29% 1.2 .35 11% .23 64% .15 1.14 55% 0% 39% +2 +2 1.10 27% 1.1 .30 20% .26 79% .21
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Stony Brook F+ D+ C- B- C- 57% 6% 37% A+ C+ C+ F F D C+ C C+ C- A+ D F+ C- 24% 18% 57% B+ C F F+ F C+ F D F
0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23 1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27
Feb
5		 Hampton D+ A+ F C C- 31% 31% 38% F D+ C F D C+ A- F C+ D+ A B+ B+ A 33% 30% 37% C A- D+ F F F F B- F
1.00 76% 24% 33% +1 -2 1.00 30% 0.8 .23 16% .46 60% .27 1.10 42% 29% 29% -11 -2 0.77 36% 1.5 .53 13% .54 70% .38
Feb
7		 Drexel C+ D+ F F+ F+ 35% 14% 51% B D- D A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F C- B- F F 33% 18% 49% C F+ A+ F B- F F D F
1.14 53% 29% 28% -8 +1 0.88 26% 2.0 .53 15% .47 85% .40 1.21 59% 33% 44% +7 0 1.16 20% 1.1 .23 9% .39 71% .28
Feb
12		 UNC Wilmington F F+ F F F 29% 21% 50% C+ F C+ F D+ C+ C+ F C- B- A B- F D 25% 20% 55% C D B+ F D+ A A+ A+ A+
0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17 1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 4th
5th 0.6 0.3 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 1.0 2.7 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.1 5.8 1.3 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 2.9 9.6 0.1 12.7 9th
10th 1.6 14.8 5.1 0.0 21.5 10th
11th 5.3 25.7 17.7 0.7 49.4 11th
12th 1.1 0.4 1.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 6.5 27.7 35.5 22.3 7.1 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.9% 5.0% 5.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-9 7.1% 4.0% 4.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 6.9
8-10 22.3% 2.8% 2.8% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 21.7
7-11 35.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.2 0.3 34.9
6-12 27.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.4 27.3
5-13 6.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.2 98.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 3.3%