Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#156
Expected Predictive Rating+6.1#91
Pace64.8#296
Improvement-1.6#283

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#218
First Shot+0.4#168
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#298
Layup/Dunks-1.5#235
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#77
Freethrows-0.8#229
Improvement-2.0#317

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#104
First Shot+1.1#134
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#116
Layups/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#309
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement+0.4#140
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 14.6% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.2 13.7
.500 or above 84.9% 92.8% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 86.5% 79.6%
Conference Champion 16.1% 19.8% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.7% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.0% 14.6% 10.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Norfolk St. (Away) - 38.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 38 - 58 - 9
Quad 410 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 274   Iona W 90-76 82%     1 - 0 +4.8 +11.3 -7.1
  Nov 13, 2024 116   Seton Hall W 49-48 40%     2 - 0 +4.0 -6.3 +10.5
  Nov 16, 2024 171   @ Massachusetts W 75-71 OT 42%     3 - 0 +6.3 +0.8 +5.3
  Nov 19, 2024 61   @ Florida St. L 61-79 13%     3 - 1 -5.7 -3.5 -2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 6   @ Houston L 44-80 4%     3 - 2 -14.6 -12.5 -6.1
  Nov 29, 2024 168   Rice W 68-63 OT 54%     4 - 2 +4.3 -6.8 +10.9
  Nov 30, 2024 323   Tarleton St. L 59-61 81%     4 - 3 -11.0 -7.9 -3.4
  Dec 01, 2024 130   Arkansas St. W 68-66 45%     5 - 3 +3.6 +0.6 +3.1
  Dec 09, 2024 153   @ Norfolk St. L 65-68 39%    
  Dec 15, 2024 118   Temple W 70-69 51%    
  Dec 29, 2024 245   @ Quinnipiac W 71-69 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 219   William & Mary W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 04, 2025 152   @ Northeastern L 64-67 38%    
  Jan 09, 2025 127   College of Charleston W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 140   UNC Wilmington W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 16, 2025 147   @ Towson L 59-62 38%    
  Jan 20, 2025 167   @ Drexel L 64-66 42%    
  Jan 23, 2025 213   Delaware W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 25, 2025 278   Campbell W 69-59 81%    
  Jan 30, 2025 173   @ Elon L 66-68 44%    
  Feb 01, 2025 278   @ Campbell W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 06, 2025 152   Northeastern W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 08, 2025 327   Stony Brook W 74-61 87%    
  Feb 13, 2025 219   @ William & Mary W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 15, 2025 264   @ Hampton W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 20, 2025 287   Monmouth W 73-63 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 213   @ Delaware L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 27, 2025 327   @ Stony Brook W 71-64 72%    
  Mar 01, 2025 311   N.C. A&T W 79-68 84%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.8 4.6 2.5 1.0 0.2 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.7 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 6.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 5.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 4.7 1.2 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.0 1.8 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.3 0.3 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 4.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.8 0.1 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.2 12.9 13.9 14.4 12.2 9.0 5.8 2.6 1.0 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.6% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 95.7% 2.5    2.2 0.3 0.0
15-3 79.9% 4.6    3.2 1.3 0.1
14-4 53.2% 4.8    2.2 1.9 0.6 0.1
13-5 19.7% 2.4    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 9.2 4.7 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 42.2% 42.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 42.1% 42.1% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 2.6% 30.9% 30.9% 12.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.8
15-3 5.8% 27.6% 27.6% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.2
14-4 9.0% 21.6% 21.6% 13.2 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 7.1
13-5 12.2% 18.3% 18.3% 13.5 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 9.9
12-6 14.4% 14.7% 14.7% 13.8 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 12.3
11-7 13.9% 9.9% 9.9% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 12.6
10-8 12.9% 5.8% 5.8% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 12.1
9-9 10.2% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.8
8-10 7.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.6
7-11 4.9% 1.5% 1.5% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.8
6-12 2.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.8
5-13 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.2 3.9 1.7 0.2 88.0 0.0%