Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.5#114
Expected Predictive Rating+5.3#101
Pace65.5#288
Improvement+2.7#40

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#127
First Shot+2.5#108
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks-0.6#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#125
Freethrows+0.5#147
Improvement+3.5#8

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#107
First Shot+1.9#109
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#183
Layups/Dunks+3.0#78
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#201
Freethrows-0.7#229
Improvement-0.8#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.4% 23.9% 18.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 96.9% 98.3% 93.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.6% 95.5% 92.2%
Conference Champion 31.8% 34.1% 25.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round22.4% 23.9% 18.3%
Second Round2.6% 3.0% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 72.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 33 - 4
Quad 36 - 58 - 8
Quad 413 - 221 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 56 @Central Florida L 78-82 19%     0 - 1 +8.9 +6.6 +2.4
  Fri, Nov 7 168 @Iona L 73-81 55%     0 - 2 -5.8 -3.3 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 14 305 @Bucknell W 83-77 79%     1 - 2 +1.2 +4.3 -3.5
  Wed, Nov 19 148 @Temple L 76-81 48%     1 - 3 -1.1 +1.9 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 28 233 La Salle W 63-58 77%     2 - 3 +0.7 -7.2 +8.1
  Sat, Nov 29 268 Merrimack W 78-58 81%     3 - 3 +14.4 +7.0 +8.3
  Sun, Nov 30 254 @Penn W 77-60 71%     4 - 3 +14.8 +5.6 +10.0
  Wed, Dec 3 128 @Columbia L 70-72 45%     4 - 4 +2.8 +3.7 -1.0
  Sun, Dec 7 102 @Pittsburgh W 80-73 34%     5 - 4 +14.6 +20.2 -4.6
  Sat, Dec 13 73 @Syracuse W 70-69 24%     6 - 4 +11.8 +17.7 -5.7
  Sun, Dec 21 160 Quinnipiac W 77-71 73%    
  Mon, Dec 29 229 Campbell W 80-69 84%    
  Sat, Jan 3 283 @Drexel W 71-64 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 142 @Towson L 66-67 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 232 Monmouth W 77-66 84%    
  Thu, Jan 15 234 @Stony Brook W 71-66 68%    
  Sat, Jan 17 178 Elon W 79-71 76%    
  Thu, Jan 22 304 @N.C. A&T W 76-68 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 120 @William & Mary L 76-79 41%    
  Thu, Jan 29 184 College of Charleston W 75-67 77%    
  Sat, Jan 31 232 @Monmouth W 74-69 67%    
  Thu, Feb 5 214 Northeastern W 75-65 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 142 Towson W 69-64 68%    
  Thu, Feb 12 184 @College of Charleston W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 109 @UNC Wilmington L 68-71 38%    
  Thu, Feb 19 239 Hampton W 75-64 84%    
  Sat, Feb 21 214 @Northeastern W 72-68 64%    
  Sat, Feb 28 234 Stony Brook W 74-63 84%    
  Tue, Mar 3 283 Drexel W 74-61 88%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.8 9.2 6.8 3.0 0.7 31.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.6 7.8 6.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.4 4.3 1.0 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 4.7 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 1.1 3.6 2.1 0.3 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.4 2.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 5.0 8.5 11.6 14.8 16.3 15.5 11.9 7.2 3.1 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.5% 3.0    2.9 0.2
16-2 94.1% 6.8    5.8 0.9 0.0
15-3 76.7% 9.2    6.4 2.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 50.4% 7.8    3.7 3.2 0.8 0.1
13-5 22.1% 3.6    0.8 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.8% 31.8 20.4 8.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 52.5% 52.0% 0.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.0%
17-1 3.1% 45.1% 45.0% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.7 0.2%
16-2 7.2% 38.6% 38.6% 12.0 0.5 1.8 0.4 0.0 4.4
15-3 11.9% 34.6% 34.6% 12.3 0.2 2.6 1.3 0.1 7.8
14-4 15.5% 29.2% 29.2% 12.5 0.1 2.2 2.0 0.2 11.0
13-5 16.3% 22.3% 22.3% 12.8 0.0 1.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 12.6
12-6 14.8% 18.4% 18.4% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 12.1
11-7 11.6% 13.1% 13.1% 13.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 10.1
10-8 8.5% 8.9% 8.9% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.7
9-9 5.0% 7.6% 7.6% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.7
8-10 2.9% 4.5% 4.5% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
7-11 1.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.6% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 22.4% 22.4% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.5 9.3 8.7 2.3 0.3 0.0 77.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 9.9 1.1 3.4 1.1 5.7 20.5 25.0 38.6 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 3.0% 10.0 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%