Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.0 108
Expected Predictive Rating +2.6 121
Pace 63.6 315
Improvement +2.0 108

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 105 C B- C C D
Defense C+ 130 B C D C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 340 C 58% 182 -4.3 330
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 196 D 33% 323 +0.3 161
Three Pointers 45% 108 B 37% 49 +4.0 50
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -0.9 306 C+ +0.8 135
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 178
Second Chance B- 34.2% 75 C+ 1.07 118 B- 0.36 72
Turnovers C 16.5% 158
Freethrows C- 0.29 233 B 76% 45 C 0.22 176
Total Offense C+ +2.5 105

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 130 C- 11.8% 230
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 157 D 7.3% 309
Three Pointers F 68% 363 C- 1.2% 267
Total C- 53% 234 C- 6.0% 223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 315 B+ 51% 37 -5.3 36
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 70 B- 35% 83 +0.7 246
Three Pointers 43% 117 C+ 33% 142 +0.5 208
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 56 B -3.3 59
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 51
Second Chance C 30.1% 165 C 1.02 175 C 0.31 168
Turnovers D 14.7% 308
Freethrows C 0.31 199 C 72% 160 C 0.22 187
Total Defense C+ +1.5 130

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 270 B- 13.6% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 305 C 4.8% 180
Three Pointers C- 86% 231 C- 0.7% 210
Total D+ 60% 289 C 5.9% 153

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 306 17.4 193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 332 0.13 50
Improvement +0.7 #148 +1.3 #109

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 124 108 92
Conference Record 10 - 8 12 - 6 12 - 6
Conference Finish 4 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 29% 25%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round28% 29% 25%
Second Round2% 2% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 49 - 8
Quad 411 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 52 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 18% -1  29% 0 - 1 B +10 B- +4 B- C C+ B+ +6 B+ F+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 249 @Iona L 73 - 81 71% -14  0% 0 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C- D+ F+ C- -3 C D B
 Fri, Nov 14 330 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 87% +2  56% 1 - 2 C- -2 C +0 B- F B- C- -3 C+ F B+
 Wed, Nov 19 152 @Temple L 76 - 81 53% -1  31% 1 - 3 C- -2 C +1 B- D- C+ D+ -3 F+ A+ B
 Fri, Nov 28 212 La Salle W 63 - 58 75% +3  82% 2 - 3 C+ +2 F+ -9 C- F D A+ +11 A- D B+
 Sat, Nov 29 162 Merrimack W 78 - 58 66% +12  93% 3 - 3 A +20 B+ +8 B D- D A+ +13 B+ A+ D
 Sun, Nov 30 172 @Penn W 77 - 60 57% +4  58% 4 - 3 A +19 B +7 A- A F A+ +13 A+ F+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 197 @Columbia L 70 - 72 62% -6  0% 4 - 4 C -1 C- -2 D A- D+ C+ +1 C- A D-
 Sun, Dec 7 101 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 35% +7  86% 5 - 4 A- +15 A+ +19 A+ C A+ D+ -3 F A C
 Sat, Dec 13 70 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 25% +0  42% 6 - 4 B+ +12 A +13 A+ B- B- C -1 B F C
 Sun, Dec 21 193 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 80% +2  60% 7 - 4 C+ +3 C+ +2 F A+ D C+ +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Dec 29 191 Campbell W 86 - 72 80% +12  81% 8 - 4 1 - 0 B +9 A +11 C+ A+ F+ C- -2 A F F
 Sat, Jan 3 222 @Drexel W 70 - 67 67% +8  97% 9 - 4 2 - 0 C+ +3 A- +10 B- A+ C+ D- -7 B D+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 167 @Towson W 78 - 67 56% +7  79% 10 - 4 3 - 0 B+ +14 A- +10 D+ A+ A- B +4 B+ D+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 189 Monmouth W 67 - 64 OT 80% -1  49% 11 - 4 4 - 0 C- -2 F -10 F D+ B A- +8 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 216 @Stony Brook L 71 - 76 66% -6  10% 11 - 5 4 - 1 D+ -5 B+ +9 C+ C A- F -15 F+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 203 Elon L 85 - 89 82% -3  22% 11 - 6 4 - 2 D -10 B+ +8 A F+ C- F -18 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 288 @N.C. A&T L 78 - 79 79% +5  66% 11 - 7 4 - 3 D+ -5 B- +5 D C- A F -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 134 @William & Mary L 82 - 89 48% -5  27% 11 - 8 4 - 4 C- -2 A +11 C- A- A+ F -14 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 29 151 College of Charleston L 64 - 66 74% +3  73% 11 - 9 4 - 5 C- -5 F+ -10 F B C- B +5 A+ F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 189 @Monmouth W 73 - 57 61% +10  99% 12 - 9 5 - 5 A- +17 B +5 B+ A+ F A+ +13 A A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 289 Northeastern W 80 - 63 90% +10  98% 13 - 9 6 - 5 B- +7 C+ +2 D+ B+ B B+ +6 D+ A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 167 Towson W 71 - 49 76% +18  95% 14 - 9 7 - 5 A +19 B +6 C B+ B+ A+ +16 A- A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 12 151 @College of Charleston W 66 - 62 53% +4  79% 15 - 9 8 - 5 B- +7 D- -6 D- F D+ A+ +14 A A D+
 Sat, Feb 14 111 @UNC Wilmington L 66 - 70 40% -0  35% 15 - 10 8 - 6 C+ +3 C+ +3 D+ C- B+ C -1 C- A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 257 Hampton W 79 - 43 88% +14  89% 16 - 10 9 - 6 A+ +28 A +13 B+ A+ A- A+ +19 A+ A B
 Sat, Feb 21 289 @Northeastern W 80 - 72 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 216 Stony Brook W 74 - 64 83%
 Tue, Mar 3 222 Drexel W 71 - 61 83%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +4 C+ +2 A+ C+ D C+ +1 B B C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C D B C+ 31% 36% 45% D C B- C+ B- C C- B C C+ B+ B- C+ B 33% 24% 43% B B C C C D C C C
1.12 58% 33% 37% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .36 17% .29 76% .22 1.07 51% 35% 33% -3 -1 0.94 30% 1.0 .31 15% .31 72% .21
Nov
3		 Central Florida B- A D F+ B- 41% 22% 37% C+ B- A F C C+ A A+ A+ B+ A- A+ C A+ 53% 9% 38% F B+ F B- F+ A+ F A+ F
1.07 70% 36% 28% +1 0 1.04 35% 0.7 .24 16% .40 88% .35 1.13 50% 25% 35% -5 +3 0.98 47% 1.1 .53 22% .63 61% .39
Nov
7		 Iona D- B+ F F D+ 45% 13% 42% B C- B- F+ D+ F+ B F D+ C- D A+ D+ C 37% 15% 48% C- C F+ C+ D B F B- F
0.98 67% 29% 27% -2 +1 1.02 37% 0.8 .29 20% .30 56% .17 1.08 63% 13% 36% -1 +1 1.02 31% 1.0 .31 20% .45 67% .30
Nov
14		 Bucknell C C B- A+ B+ 20% 33% 47% F B- D F F B- A+ F A+ C- F A+ A C+ 31% 19% 50% B- C+ F F F B+ F F F
1.11 60% 44% 43% +9 -3 1.14 29% 0.8 .24 16% .51 66% .34 1.03 67% 22% 25% -7 0 0.88 32% 1.6 .53 23% .36 86% .31
Nov
19		 Temple C A C+ B- B+ 25% 30% 45% F B- C- F D- C+ F A+ D D+ F B+ F F 33% 33% 35% A F+ A A+ A+ B F C- F
1.09 71% 41% 36% +6 -2 1.09 26% 0.8 .21 14% .22 85% .19 1.17 73% 33% 44% +9 -2 1.15 21% 0.7 .14 16% .53 77% .41
Nov
28		 La Salle F+ D- A- C C 28% 26% 46% F+ C- C- F F D D F F+ A+ A+ D- A+ A 52% 23% 25% D- A- C D- D B+ A+ D A
0.95 50% 46% 35% 0 -1 1.00 28% 0.7 .19 20% .21 55% .11 0.87 40% 45% 25% -11 +1 0.81 34% 1.1 .37 21% .23 75% .17
Nov
29		 Merrimack B+ A+ F A+ B+ 33% 24% 43% D+ B D D D- D B- A+ A A+ A A+ B- A- 30% 11% 59% B- B+ B- A+ A+ D A+ F A
1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32 0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21
Nov
30		 Penn B A+ D- C A 43% 29% 29% D A- B- A+ A F A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 50% 23% A+ A+ D+ F F+ D+ B- C B-
1.15 83% 33% 33% +9 -1 1.19 35% 1.3 .43 22% .35 94% .33 0.90 29% 23% 25% -19 -5 0.56 33% 1.2 .40 15% .30 71% .21
Dec
3		 Columbia C- F B B D- 50% 18% 32% B D C- A+ A- D+ A D- B+ C+ C B- F D 29% 24% 47% A+ C- B A+ A D- C- D D+
1.06 40% 44% 38% -6 +1 0.92 29% 1.4 .40 15% .39 68% .27 1.09 57% 33% 43% +5 -1 1.10 31% 0.6 .20 18% .30 75% .22
Dec
7		 Pittsburgh A+ B A+ A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B A+ B F+ C A+ B+ C+ B+ D+ A+ F F F 26% 23% 51% A F B+ A+ A C F F F
1.30 64% 50% 47% +12 +1 1.28 31% 0.8 .23 11% .33 78% .26 1.19 45% 60% 45% +11 -1 1.21 31% 0.8 .23 16% .43 86% .37
Dec
13		 Syracuse A D+ F A+ A+ 38% 27% 35% D A+ C- A B- B- F A+ F C C+ F B B 32% 21% 47% B+ B F C+ F C C+ A+ B+
1.20 50% 15% 65% +7 -1 1.15 30% 1.4 .41 17% .12 100% .12 1.19 60% 50% 32% +2 -1 1.04 44% 1.0 .44 15% .33 56% .18
Dec
21		 Quinnipiac C+ F C- F F 38% 12% 50% B- F A+ A+ A+ D A+ C+ A+ C+ A- C- A+ A+ 37% 21% 42% C- A+ B+ F F F D- D- F+
1.10 42% 33% 24% -14 +1 0.76 48% 1.3 .64 19% .42 74% .31 0.98 47% 36% 14% -17 0 0.67 27% 1.6 .44 12% .34 75% .25
Dec
29		 Campbell A B D B C+ 38% 19% 44% C C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B+ D- B- C- C A+ A+ A+ 46% 14% 40% C A B- F F F C+ B B-
1.30 67% 33% 38% +5 0 1.13 50% 1.8 .89 21% .36 68% .25 1.09 57% 14% 20% -12 +1 0.80 32% 1.5 .46 11% .37 68% .25
Jan
3		 Drexel A- D A+ B- B- 41% 20% 39% B- B- C+ A+ A+ C+ B- D- C D- A B- D+ A- 44% 18% 38% D B C D- D+ F F A- D
1.18 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.6 .53 15% .34 71% .24 1.13 45% 33% 37% -5 +1 0.94 29% 1.0 .29 5% .36 60% .21
Jan
8		 Towson A- C+ F B+ C 27% 30% 43% F+ D+ B A+ A+ A- A+ A A+ B A+ A F B- 16% 45% 39% A+ B+ C D D+ B F F F
1.16 58% 23% 37% -2 -2 0.93 31% 1.5 .47 12% .54 78% .42 1.00 25% 30% 40% -5 -5 0.82 37% 0.9 .34 19% .46 76% .35
Jan
10		 Monmouth F F D- F F 27% 27% 46% F F C+ F D+ B A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ 29% 29% 42% B+ A+ A+ F B+ C- F D F
0.94 31% 31% 23% -17 -2 0.65 35% 0.8 .26 17% .56 88% .49 0.90 40% 20% 32% -12 -2 0.75 20% 1.3 .24 17% .39 78% .30
Jan
15		 Stony Brook B+ D F A+ B- 27% 21% 52% D+ C+ B D C A- F A D- F C- C F F 33% 20% 47% B- F+ F C D- F D+ B+ C-
1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17 1.28 56% 40% 43% +7 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19
Jan
17		 Elon B+ D A+ A+ A+ 17% 31% 52% F A B F F+ C- A B+ A F D- B- F F 52% 7% 41% D- F C B B- F F F F
1.28 50% 53% 48% +14 -3 1.25 38% 0.7 .26 17% .38 76% .29 1.34 67% 33% 42% +9 +3 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 11% .45 81% .37
Jan
22		 N.C. A&T B- C- F+ B+ C- 17% 30% 53% F D C- C- C- A C+ A- B F B F A- D+ 13% 39% 48% A+ C+ F F+ F F F C F
1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25 1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46
Jan
24		 William & Mary A F F A+ C- 35% 13% 53% C C- A- C+ A- A+ D+ A+ B- F C A+ F D+ 27% 11% 63% B+ C- F C F F A+ F A
1.22 47% 14% 41% -1 +1 1.02 39% 1.1 .41 12% .25 87% .22 1.33 60% 17% 40% +4 0 1.11 38% 1.1 .43 7% .21 85% .18
Jan
29		 College of Charleston F+ F F F+ F 32% 23% 45% C F A D+ B C- F F F B A+ D- A+ A+ 47% 24% 29% D+ A+ F C F+ F+ D+ A+ B+
0.94 44% 23% 28% -12 -1 0.77 41% 0.9 .35 15% .09 40% .03 0.96 42% 42% 13% -16 0 0.71 38% 1.1 .40 13% .37 59% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Monmouth B C+ A+ A A 23% 27% 50% F B+ A- A+ A+ F F+ A D A+ A- F A+ B+ 25% 45% 30% A+ A A+ B+ A+ F A+ C+ A+
1.12 60% 50% 41% +9 -2 1.16 40% 1.6 .64 29% .22 80% .17 0.88 46% 46% 19% -6 -4 0.81 19% 0.9 .16 9% .19 73% .14
Feb
5		 Northeastern C+ A- C D C- 32% 26% 42% F+ D+ A- C B+ B F+ A- D B+ B- F D D- 27% 27% 46% A+ D+ A+ B- A+ C+ C+ B B-
1.21 71% 43% 32% +4 -1 1.08 40% 1.0 .40 15% .27 80% .21 0.95 54% 54% 36% +5 -2 1.08 10% 1.0 .10 18% .26 64% .17
Feb
7		 Towson B F F+ A+ B- 25% 33% 42% F C B B B+ B+ B- B+ B A+ A+ C+ F A 39% 30% 32% C- A- A A+ A+ C+ F A+ D+
1.15 42% 31% 45% +1 -3 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 13% .30 75% .22 0.79 24% 38% 43% -9 -1 0.82 28% 0.3 .07 18% .37 58% .22
Feb
12		 College of Charleston D- B- D F D- 22% 25% 53% D D- C F F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ 23% 23% 54% B+ A A+ D+ A D+ B- F C-
0.94 64% 31% 26% -7 -2 0.84 31% 0.5 .14 16% .44 73% .32 0.88 42% 17% 32% -10 -1 0.79 18% 1.1 .20 16% .32 84% .27
Feb
14		 UNC Wilmington C+ A+ F B+ C 17% 38% 46% F D+ C+ D- C- B+ A+ C A+ C F+ D B D 30% 38% 33% A+ C- B A A- F F A F
1.08 75% 22% 36% -1 -4 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 11% .43 74% .31 1.15 67% 40% 31% +2 -3 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 10% .65 61% .40
Feb
19		 Hampton A A+ D+ C- B+ 45% 18% 37% B- B+ C+ A+ A+ A- F A F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% C A+ D- A+ A B A+ A A+
1.29 78% 33% 32% +7 +1 1.18 31% 1.6 .50 13% .15 75% .11 0.70 41% 21% 16% -21 -1 0.58 38% 0.5 .19 21% .23 64% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 2.5 25.6 28.1 2nd
3rd 2.2 29.6 29.0 60.7 3rd
4th 0.0 4.5 3.6 8.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 2.2 5th
6th 0.3 0.2 0.5 6th
7th 0.3 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.8 8.9 35.7 54.6 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 54.6% 31.3% 31.3% 12.4 0.2 10.0 6.7 0.2 37.5
11-7 35.7% 26.8% 26.8% 12.8 0.0 2.8 5.9 0.9 0.0 26.1
10-8 8.9% 18.9% 18.9% 13.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.2
9-9 0.8% 11.9% 11.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.5% 28.5% 0.0% 12.6 71.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.1% 100.0% 12.4 1.2 58.6 39.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 13.1%
Lose Out 0.3%