James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.8 210
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 197
Pace 64.4 298
Improvement +3.8 48

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 173 C C- C C- C+
Defense C- 250 C+ C F+ D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 192 C 58% 179 -0.3 190
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% 271 D- 32% 337 -2.5 299
Three Pointers 45% 93 C+ 35% 139 +2.7 88
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.5 118 C -0.5 190
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 177
Second Chance C- 28.4% 239 C+ 1.06 135 C- 0.30 203
Turnovers C 17.1% 196
Freethrows C- 0.29 219 D+ 70% 266 C- 0.21 240
Total Offense C -0.4 173

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D 39% 310 D+ 12.8% 281
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 262 D+ 6.7% 284
Three Pointers C 85% 176 C- 1.1% 252
Total C- 53% 225 D+ 6.5% 277

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 179 B- 55% 96 -1.1 133
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 226 C+ 37% 137 -0.8 124
Three Pointers 43% 124 C 34% 181 +0.8 230
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 214 C+ -1.4 119
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 135
Second Chance C 30.3% 172 C 1.04 198 C 0.31 191
Turnovers F+ 12.6% 358
Freethrows D 0.36 319 C+ 72% 148 D 0.25 310
Total Defense C- -2.4 250

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 172 B 15.2% 52
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A- 12% 5 C- 4.2% 205
Three Pointers D+ 88% 286 D+ 0.4% 279
Total C 56% 180 B- 6.9% 81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 296 17.1 154
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 213 0.15 112
Improvement -1.2 #248 +5.0 #12

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 236 212 183
Conference Record 7 - 11 9 - 9 10 - 8
Conference Finish 11 8 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 15.0
.500 or above 87% 97% 75%
.500 or above in Conference 70% 91% 46%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Georgia St. (Away) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 34 - 55 - 8
Quad 412 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 76 @Akron L 71 - 85 11% -0  46% 0 - 1 C- -3 D+ -4 C- D- F C+ +1 A+ D- F
 Sun, Nov 9 364 Coppin St. W 84 - 70 95% +13  100% 1 - 1 D+ -8 C +0 C+ F C- D- -8 C- F B+
 Wed, Nov 12 270 @Longwood L 72 - 82 51% -8  11% 1 - 2 D- -13 D+ -3 D+ D B+ F -10 B B F
 Sat, Nov 15 214 @LIU Brooklyn L 79 - 88 39% -10  4% 1 - 3 D -9 C- -1 B- D+ D+ D- -8 F A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 167 Towson W 81 - 75 53% +3  68% 2 - 3 C+ +3 A+ +17 A+ F A F -14 C- D- F
 Mon, Nov 24 185 @Florida International W 80 - 72 34% -1  28% 3 - 3 B +9 B+ +9 F A+ A+ C+ +1 B A- F
 Tue, Nov 25 240 Nebraska Omaha W 88 - 77 56% +13  90% 4 - 3 B- +7 A+ +16 A+ A+ C+ F+ -8 F D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 105 @George Mason L 66 - 82 17% -1  45% 4 - 4 D -9 D+ -2 D- C+ A+ D- -7 F A C-
 Wed, Dec 3 350 NC Central W 67 - 62 89% +4  81% 5 - 4 D- -11 F -10 F D- B C -1 B D- C-
 Sat, Dec 6 306 Norfolk St. W 68 - 67 80% +4  89% 6 - 4 D -11 D- -6 F C+ A D+ -4 F C- A-
 Wed, Dec 17 239 @Old Dominion L 68 - 77 44% -6  17% 6 - 5 0 - 1 D -10 D -5 C D- F+ D -6 C A F
 Sat, Dec 20 262 @Georgia Southern L 92 - 96 OT 49% +3  75% 6 - 6 0 - 2 D+ -7 B- +4 D- A C+ F -10 C C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 17 @Arkansas L 74 - 103 2% -17  3% 6 - 7 D+ -7 B +6 A C D F -14 F+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 3 140 @Arkansas St. W 78 - 74 25% -2  29% 7 - 7 1 - 2 B +8 C+ +3 A D F B +5 B+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 173 Marshall L 64 - 66 54% -8  0% 7 - 8 1 - 3 D+ -6 D- -8 F+ C C- C+ +2 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 10 239 Old Dominion W 70 - 69 67% -9  10% 8 - 8 2 - 3 D+ -6 D- -8 B F+ F C+ +2 A- B- F
 Thu, Jan 15 174 @Appalachian St. L 65 - 80 32% -11  0% 8 - 9 2 - 4 D- -13 B- +5 F+ B- A- F -20 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 173 @Marshall L 72 - 77 32% +0  36% 8 - 10 2 - 5 C- -3 D+ -4 D+ B+ F+ C+ +1 A D B-
 Thu, Jan 22 188 South Alabama L 83 - 90 58% -2  47% 8 - 11 2 - 6 D- -12 C- -1 B+ C- F F -11 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 225 Texas St. W 82 - 57 64% +17  92% 9 - 11 3 - 6 A +18 A +13 A B+ C+ A- +8 A A F
 Thu, Jan 29 146 @Troy W 73 - 64 26% +1  55% 10 - 11 4 - 6 B+ +13 C+ +4 A- C D- A +10 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 31 245 @Southern Miss L 65 - 73 45% -5  3% 10 - 12 4 - 7 D -9 D -6 F B- C+ D+ -4 C B- D
 Wed, Feb 4 303 Louisiana L 61 - 64 79% -1  28% 10 - 13 4 - 8 D- -14 D+ -4 C C+ C F -11 C F+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 169 Toledo W 73 - 71 53% +2  62% 11 - 13 C -2 D+ -2 C D+ D+ C+ +1 C B- F
 Thu, Feb 12 283 Georgia St. W 81 - 79 OT 76% +2  56% 12 - 13 5 - 8 D -8 C- -1 B- D+ F+ D- -7 F C+ D+
 Sat, Feb 14 174 Appalachian St. W 69 - 58 54% +6  92% 13 - 13 6 - 8 B- +7 C+ +3 C C- A+ B+ +6 A+ F C+
 Wed, Feb 18 238 @Coastal Carolina W 67 - 65 44% +0  55% 14 - 13 7 - 8 C +1 C- -2 C F+ B+ B- +3 B- B F
 Sat, Feb 21 283 @Georgia St. W 72 - 71 55%
 Wed, Feb 25 262 Georgia Southern W 80 - 74 71%
 Fri, Feb 27 238 Coastal Carolina W 72 - 68 67%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 9 -3 C +0 D+ C C+ C- -2 C+ D+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C D- C+ C 38% 29% 45% C+ C C- C+ C- C C- D+ C- C- B- C+ C C+ 39% 19% 43% C- C+ C C C F+ D C+ D
1.08 58% 32% 35% -1 0 1.02 28% 1.1 .30 17% .29 70% .21 1.12 55% 37% 34% -1 0 1.00 30% 1.0 .31 13% .36 72% .21
Nov
3		 Akron D+ D- F A- D+ 42% 10% 48% B+ C- C- F D- F D+ A+ B- C+ A+ F A A+ 51% 6% 43% F A+ D- C D- F F D+ F
0.99 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 32% 0.8 .24 26% .25 92% .23 1.18 42% 67% 27% -11 +3 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 11% .45 79% .36
Nov
9		 Coppin St. C B+ A B- C+ 31% 8% 62% C+ C+ D- F F C- C- B+ C D- A+ A+ F C- 40% 24% 36% D+ C- F+ F F B+ F D F
1.19 69% 50% 38% +7 +1 1.19 30% 0.6 .18 17% .34 80% .27 1.00 35% 10% 53% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.3 .46 26% .69 72% .50
Nov
12		 Longwood D+ B- F D- D 46% 10% 44% B D+ F B- D B+ D+ F F F B+ F+ A+ A- 43% 20% 37% D B D+ A B F F F F
1.03 67% 20% 30% 0 +2 1.06 19% 1.0 .19 16% .32 53% .17 1.17 50% 44% 24% -8 +1 0.87 35% 0.7 .25 10% .67 86% .57
Nov
15		 LIU Brooklyn C- C- C+ A+ B 44% 27% 29% D- B- D+ C D+ D+ F F F D- F F F F 56% 21% 23% F+ F A+ A+ A+ D- B B+ B
1.04 54% 40% 44% +3 0 1.07 31% 1.0 .31 20% .23 57% .13 1.16 69% 50% 54% +15 +1 1.35 18% 0.4 .07 17% .24 60% .14
Nov
18		 Towson A+ A+ C A+ A+ 34% 11% 55% B A+ F C+ F A A+ A+ A+ F F A- B D+ 37% 31% 33% C C- F C D- F F F+ F
1.32 73% 40% 50% +19 +1 1.41 9% 1.0 .09 11% .39 81% .31 1.22 68% 31% 29% -1 -1 0.98 45% 0.8 .37 11% .42 74% .31
Nov
24		 Florida International B+ F C F F 32% 10% 58% C+ F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ F D+ B+ 38% 15% 47% C- B D+ A+ A- F F A+ F+
1.18 38% 40% 21% -18 +1 0.68 51% 1.2 .59 15% .52 73% .38 1.07 30% 63% 36% -5 +1 0.92 35% 0.7 .25 10% .45 59% .26
Nov
25		 Nebraska Omaha A+ C F A+ A+ 35% 12% 53% B- A+ C A+ A+ C+ F A+ F F+ F C+ D- F 32% 16% 52% C- F D- D+ D- C A+ B- A+
1.36 61% 17% 56% +16 +1 1.35 30% 1.8 .52 14% .14 88% .13 1.19 75% 38% 38% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.1 .34 17% .19 70% .13
Nov
29		 George Mason D+ B- F D+ D- 24% 25% 51% D D- D A+ C+ A+ C- A- C D- F+ F C- F 41% 17% 41% D F A+ F A C- F D- F
0.99 62% 14% 32% -7 -2 0.85 23% 1.2 .28 9% .23 79% .18 1.24 71% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 16% 1.3 .20 15% .64 78% .50
Dec
3		 NC Central F F F D+ F 38% 10% 53% B- F D- D- D- B A+ D A+ C A- A B A- 42% 17% 42% D- B C+ F D- C- C+ C+ B-
1.05 40% 25% 33% -9 +1 0.88 32% 0.8 .26 16% .60 69% .41 0.97 45% 25% 30% -10 +1 0.83 27% 1.2 .33 17% .28 73% .21
Dec
6		 Norfolk St. D- A F F F 31% 15% 54% D+ F F A+ C+ A C+ F D- D+ F C- D F 42% 40% 18% A- F C- C C- A- C A+ A
1.05 73% 29% 23% -5 0 0.92 22% 1.6 .36 12% .39 55% .21 1.03 74% 39% 38% +8 -2 1.13 31% 1.0 .31 23% .34 47% .16
Dec
17		 Old Dominion D A+ A- F C 40% 15% 45% B- C F C- D- F+ C- D+ D+ D B B+ C- C+ 33% 16% 51% F+ C B A+ A F F F F
1.01 79% 43% 19% -1 +1 1.02 22% 1.0 .22 18% .33 72% .24 1.15 53% 29% 35% -2 0 0.98 22% 0.8 .16 9% .54 82% .44
Dec
20		 Georgia Southern B- C A F F+ 54% 8% 38% A- D- A B- A C+ A+ C- A+ F B- F A+ C+ 51% 8% 41% F+ C C B- C+ F F D- F
1.17 59% 50% 21% -6 +3 0.96 45% 1.1 .50 18% .59 74% .43 1.22 50% 80% 25% -6 +2 0.95 27% 1.0 .27 8% .54 77% .41
Dec
29		 Arkansas B B B+ B A 27% 14% 59% C+ A B- D- C D A A- A+ F D- B+ F F 34% 17% 49% C+ F+ D- F+ F D- F A+ F
1.06 62% 43% 34% +2 0 1.06 32% 1.1 .35 20% .34 74% .25 1.47 72% 33% 50% +16 0 1.34 40% 1.4 .57 9% .49 65% .31
Jan
3		 Arkansas St. C+ B+ C- A+ A 45% 23% 32% C+ A D+ F+ D F A+ F B+ B F+ A+ A B+ 35% 17% 48% C+ B+ C- A+ A+ F F A+ C-
1.10 67% 36% 47% +10 0 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 21% .46 62% .29 1.04 68% 11% 27% -6 0 0.91 39% 0.6 .24 11% .43 59% .25
Jan
7		 Marshall D- C F F F 35% 19% 46% B- F+ C+ C- C C- F F F C+ A+ F A A+ 29% 27% 43% B- A+ D+ D- D F D+ D+ D+
1.03 59% 22% 27% -7 0 0.88 36% 0.9 .33 18% .26 62% .16 1.07 33% 50% 27% -8 -2 0.82 33% 1.2 .41 10% .29 75% .21
Jan
10		 Old Dominion D- A+ D- F B 52% 23% 25% B- B D+ F F+ F A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ C- C- A 33% 30% 37% C+ A- B C- B- F D B- C-
1.01 78% 30% 18% +3 +1 1.09 28% 0.8 .21 23% .47 80% .38 1.00 33% 38% 35% -8 -2 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 10% .32 70% .23
Jan
15		 Appalachian St. B- F F A F 35% 13% 52% B- F+ B C B- A- B- C- C+ F C F F F 38% 4% 58% F F F F F F A+ C A+
1.11 24% 17% 40% -10 +1 0.83 35% 0.9 .33 10% .30 69% .21 1.36 58% 50% 45% +10 +2 1.26 38% 1.3 .50 10% .15 63% .09
Jan
17		 Marshall D+ F C B D+ 26% 23% 51% D+ D+ C+ A- B+ F+ C+ F+ C- C+ B A+ C- A 35% 28% 37% C A F A D B- F F F
1.05 42% 36% 38% -2 -1 0.96 36% 1.1 .40 20% .37 65% .24 1.13 56% 23% 35% -4 -1 0.91 46% 0.9 .41 19% .51 82% .42
Jan
22		 South Alabama C- D+ F A- B+ 14% 2% 84% C+ B+ F A+ C- F A+ B- A+ F A- B A- A 49% 11% 40% F+ B+ C- F F F F B F
1.10 57% 0% 39% +5 +1 1.14 20% 1.7 .34 22% .43 76% .32 1.19 48% 33% 27% -9 +2 0.87 24% 2.1 .51 4% .54 62% .33
Jan
24		 Texas St. A C+ A+ A+ A+ 26% 12% 62% D+ A A- C+ B+ C+ F C F A- C A+ A+ A+ 45% 28% 28% C- A B+ A+ A F F B+ D-
1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15 0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Troy C+ B+ F A+ B+ 46% 15% 40% B+ A- C- C+ C D- A D- B+ A A A A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C A+ A+ B- A F C A- C+
1.11 64% 29% 42% +6 +1 1.17 30% 1.1 .33 20% .38 65% .25 0.97 46% 29% 26% -12 +1 0.81 22% 0.9 .20 9% .30 67% .20
Jan
31		 Southern Miss D D+ B- F F 49% 16% 36% B F D+ A+ B- C+ A+ F B D+ C- B+ C+ C 37% 39% 24% B+ C A- D B- D F F F
0.97 55% 43% 19% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 16% .47 58% .27 1.09 60% 31% 30% -3 -3 0.90 25% 1.1 .29 16% .61 82% .50
Feb
4		 Louisiana D+ B F C C- 50% 8% 43% B+ C B- C- C+ C B- F F F C A+ F C 23% 31% 46% C C F C F+ D- B F C
1.08 65% 0% 35% +1 +3 1.10 35% 1.0 .35 18% .41 42% .17 1.13 55% 20% 41% -2 -2 0.94 38% 0.9 .32 14% .18 89% .16
Feb
7		 Toledo D+ A D- D C 38% 13% 49% C C C+ D- D+ D+ A A+ A+ C+ D+ F+ B+ C 38% 31% 31% B- C A+ F B- F B- A+ B+
1.10 71% 33% 32% +3 +1 1.09 36% 0.8 .30 20% .32 88% .28 1.07 60% 50% 31% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.3 .24 11% .25 67% .17
Feb
12		 Georgia St. C- C- B+ A- B- 45% 13% 42% B B- D+ D+ D+ F+ B C- B D- A F+ F F 39% 26% 35% D- F B D+ C+ D+ D- A+ C
1.09 56% 43% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 20% .34 70% .24 1.07 43% 43% 42% 0 -1 1.00 24% 1.1 .26 15% .35 68% .24
Feb
14		 Appalachian St. C+ D- F+ B+ C 38% 20% 42% C C C C- C- A+ B- D- C B+ C+ C A+ A+ 21% 26% 53% A+ A+ D- F F C+ F B+ F
1.13 47% 30% 38% -3 0 0.96 30% 0.9 .27 8% .30 65% .20 0.95 56% 36% 13% -18 -2 0.63 35% 1.3 .45 16% .47 58% .27
Feb
18		 Coastal Carolina C- C F A C- 44% 28% 28% B C F+ F+ F+ B+ F B F+ B- B F A+ C+ 15% 35% 50% A B- A D+ B F F A D-
1.02 54% 27% 40% -2 0 0.96 19% 0.9 .16 9% .20 75% .15 0.99 50% 56% 23% -3 -3 0.88 18% 1.0 .18 8% .36 64% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.8 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 5.7 5.7 5th
6th 1.2 11.9 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 19.8 8.6 28.4 7th
8th 4.4 21.5 25.9 8th
9th 12.3 0.9 13.2 9th
10th 0.4 6.8 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 3.3 1.0 4.4 11th
12th 1.2 0.0 1.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 5.1 24.5 43.4 27.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 27.0% 3.2% 3.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 26.1
9-9 43.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 42.6
8-10 24.5% 1.0% 1.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 24.3
7-11 5.1% 5.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 14.5 98.1 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 14.0 0.4 17.6 62.2 19.5 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.5%
Lose Out 5.0%