James Madison
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#114
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#158
Pace70.7#140
Improvement+2.8#27

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#108
First Shot+0.4#166
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#71
Layup/Dunks+1.0#142
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#83
Freethrows-2.5#309
Improvement+0.0#186

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#146
First Shot-2.3#246
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#20
Layups/Dunks-5.1#337
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#279
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#54
Freethrows+0.2#183
Improvement+2.9#16
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.4% 24.7% 19.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 92.7% 95.2% 85.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.0% 95.9% 92.3%
Conference Champion 36.5% 38.8% 29.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round23.3% 24.7% 19.0%
Second Round3.1% 3.6% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 37 - 67 - 9
Quad 412 - 219 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 157   Ohio W 88-78 72%     1 - 0 +7.3 +9.7 -2.6
  Nov 09, 2024 153   @ Norfolk St. L 69-83 50%     1 - 1 -10.6 -1.9 -8.9
  Nov 16, 2024 147   @ Towson L 63-67 48%     1 - 2 -0.2 -0.6 +0.0
  Nov 21, 2024 217   Illinois-Chicago W 99-81 73%     2 - 2 +14.9 +15.2 -1.7
  Nov 22, 2024 102   UC San Diego L 67-73 45%     2 - 3 -1.4 +4.9 -7.2
  Nov 23, 2024 174   Jacksonville St. W 71-65 66%     3 - 3 +5.2 +4.5 +1.3
  Nov 29, 2024 82   George Mason L 61-66 49%     3 - 4 -1.5 -2.8 +0.9
  Dec 03, 2024 135   East Tennessee St. W 71-61 68%     4 - 4 +8.4 +1.7 +7.4
  Dec 07, 2024 184   Utah Valley W 78-71 76%    
  Dec 17, 2024 89   @ Wake Forest L 68-74 30%    
  Dec 21, 2024 206   @ South Alabama W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 02, 2025 250   Southern Miss W 81-70 85%    
  Jan 04, 2025 130   Arkansas St. W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 09, 2025 195   @ Marshall W 78-76 57%    
  Jan 11, 2025 163   @ Appalachian St. W 69-68 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 195   Marshall W 81-73 76%    
  Jan 18, 2025 163   Appalachian St. W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 22, 2025 317   @ Old Dominion W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 25, 2025 230   @ Georgia St. W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 30, 2025 272   Coastal Carolina W 74-62 87%    
  Feb 01, 2025 317   Old Dominion W 83-68 91%    
  Feb 05, 2025 125   Troy W 77-73 65%    
  Feb 13, 2025 235   @ Georgia Southern W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 15, 2025 272   @ Coastal Carolina W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 20, 2025 230   Georgia St. W 80-70 81%    
  Feb 22, 2025 235   Georgia Southern W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 25, 2025 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 28, 2025 138   @ Texas St. L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 8.0 10.8 8.5 4.3 1.2 36.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.2 7.5 6.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 20.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 5.6 4.2 0.9 0.1 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.4 3.3 0.7 0.0 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 2.7 0.8 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.9 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.6 4.8 7.6 10.9 13.3 15.6 15.3 13.2 8.9 4.3 1.2 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
17-1 99.5% 4.3    4.2 0.1
16-2 95.3% 8.5    7.5 0.9 0.0
15-3 81.8% 10.8    7.5 3.1 0.3 0.0
14-4 52.6% 8.0    3.5 3.4 1.0 0.1
13-5 20.5% 3.2    0.6 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 36.5% 36.5 24.6 8.9 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.2% 51.6% 51.0% 0.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 1.3%
17-1 4.3% 45.4% 45.4% 12.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.3
16-2 8.9% 38.0% 38.0% 12.3 0.1 2.0 1.1 0.1 5.5
15-3 13.2% 33.5% 33.5% 12.7 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.8
14-4 15.3% 28.3% 28.3% 13.0 0.0 0.9 2.3 1.0 0.1 11.0
13-5 15.6% 23.7% 23.7% 13.4 0.4 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 11.9
12-6 13.3% 18.0% 18.0% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 10.9
11-7 10.9% 13.3% 13.3% 14.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 9.4
10-8 7.6% 8.5% 8.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 7.0
9-9 4.8% 6.4% 6.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.5
8-10 2.6% 4.7% 4.7% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
7-11 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.6 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-13 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 6.6 9.0 5.1 1.5 0.1 76.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 9.2 1.3 6.0 11.4 10.1 4.7 10.7 11.4 34.9 9.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 5.0% 11.0 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 5.0% 11.0 5.0