Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+20.0#8
Expected Predictive Rating+19.4#13
Pace60.4#361
Improvement+0.6#131

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#19
First Shot+5.5#47
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#23
Layup/Dunks-0.3#192
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#34
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#63
Freethrows-1.4#273
Improvement+1.8#58

Defense
Total Defense+10.9#7
First Shot+11.5#4
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#236
Layups/Dunks+5.2#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#39
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement-1.1#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.3% 2.9% 1.1%
#1 Seed 15.0% 18.1% 9.2%
Top 2 Seed 36.9% 43.1% 25.5%
Top 4 Seed 76.2% 81.8% 65.8%
Top 6 Seed 92.8% 95.4% 87.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.4% 99.7% 98.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.3% 99.7% 98.7%
Average Seed 3.4 3.1 3.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.0% 96.7%
Conference Champion 21.2% 23.4% 17.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round99.3% 99.7% 98.6%
Second Round91.4% 93.2% 87.9%
Sweet Sixteen62.4% 65.9% 56.0%
Elite Eight34.0% 37.0% 28.5%
Final Four17.2% 19.2% 13.5%
Championship Game8.4% 9.6% 6.4%
National Champion3.7% 4.3% 2.7%

Next Game: Arkansas (Neutral) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 54 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 18 - 6
Quad 28 - 116 - 7
Quad 35 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 307 Lehigh W 75-57 99%     1 - 0 +6.7 -1.0 +8.1
  Sat, Nov 8 140 Towson W 65-48 97%     2 - 0 +15.3 -3.6 +20.3
  Wed, Nov 12 149 Oakland W 78-45 97%     3 - 0 +30.6 +10.1 +24.7
  Sun, Nov 16 28 Auburn W 73-72 70%     4 - 0 +15.4 +8.1 +7.4
  Thu, Nov 20 348 Rider W 91-45 99.6%    5 - 0 +31.1 +18.4 +14.5
  Mon, Nov 24 69 Syracuse W 78-74 OT 87%     6 - 0 +12.1 +4.5 +7.3
  Tue, Nov 25 15 Tennessee L 73-76 59%     6 - 1 +14.5 +21.0 -6.9
  Wed, Nov 26 54 Notre Dame W 66-56 83%     7 - 1 +19.7 +10.2 +11.4
  Sat, Dec 6 119 Florida St. W 82-67 93%     8 - 1 +18.0 +11.2 +6.9
  Wed, Dec 10 315 Jackson St. W 80-38 99%     9 - 1 +29.9 +11.2 +22.5
  Sat, Dec 13 247 New Orleans W 99-57 99%     10 - 1 +34.2 +24.1 +11.4
  Sat, Dec 20 20 Arkansas W 73-69 65%    
  Mon, Dec 29 158 Middle Tennessee W 79-56 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 78 @Cincinnati W 70-61 81%    
  Tue, Jan 6 27 Texas Tech W 73-65 78%    
  Sat, Jan 10 32 @Baylor W 74-70 63%    
  Tue, Jan 13 65 West Virginia W 70-56 91%    
  Sun, Jan 18 60 Arizona St. W 77-63 90%    
  Sat, Jan 24 27 @Texas Tech W 70-68 58%    
  Wed, Jan 28 53 @TCU W 69-62 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 78 Cincinnati W 73-58 92%    
  Wed, Feb 4 57 Central Florida W 79-66 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 9 @BYU L 67-70 39%    
  Tue, Feb 10 120 @Utah W 77-63 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 68 Kansas St. W 81-66 91%    
  Mon, Feb 16 4 @Iowa St. L 66-71 33%    
  Sat, Feb 21 3 Arizona W 72-71 51%    
  Mon, Feb 23 17 @Kansas L 65-66 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 63 Colorado W 78-64 90%    
  Wed, Mar 4 32 Baylor W 77-67 81%    
  Sat, Mar 7 51 @Oklahoma St. W 78-71 72%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.7 7.1 3.6 0.8 21.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.7 8.7 6.8 1.6 0.1 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.7 8.5 6.0 1.1 0.1 19.7 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 6.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 15.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 4.5 3.2 0.5 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 5.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.2 6.1 10.3 14.5 17.6 18.0 14.6 8.7 3.7 0.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 98.1% 3.6    3.2 0.5 0.0
16-2 81.2% 7.1    4.6 2.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 45.8% 6.7    2.5 3.1 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-4 14.0% 2.5    0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 2.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 11.6 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.7% 100.0% 36.1% 63.9% 1.4 2.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 8.7% 100.0% 30.3% 69.7% 1.7 4.1 3.6 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.6% 100.0% 23.0% 77.0% 2.1 4.1 6.4 3.3 0.8 0.1 100.0%
14-4 18.0% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.6 2.6 6.1 6.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 17.6% 100.0% 13.9% 86.1% 3.2 0.9 3.3 6.6 4.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.5% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.0 0.2 1.0 3.8 4.9 3.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.3% 99.9% 6.3% 93.6% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.6 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 6.1% 99.5% 4.1% 95.3% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
9-9 3.2% 98.1% 1.9% 96.2% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.1%
8-10 1.5% 93.4% 3.3% 90.1% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 93.2%
7-11 0.6% 77.1% 1.1% 76.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.8%
6-12 0.2% 46.2% 1.5% 44.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 45.3%
5-13 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 12.0 0.0 0.1 4.3%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.4% 15.9% 83.6% 3.4 15.0 21.9 22.5 16.8 10.3 6.3 3.2 1.6 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.6 99.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 84.7 15.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 78.3 21.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.4 66.7 30.3 3.0