Houston
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.4#6
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#77
Pace60.5#353
Improvement-2.6#323

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#16
First Shot+3.2#92
After Offensive Rebound+5.3#4
Layup/Dunks-2.2#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#143
Freethrows+0.5#151
Improvement-0.9#253

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#4
First Shot+9.2#5
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#132
Layups/Dunks+9.9#3
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#232
Freethrows-2.3#310
Improvement-1.7#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.1% 4.5% 1.9%
#1 Seed 17.8% 19.2% 9.1%
Top 2 Seed 34.7% 37.0% 20.2%
Top 4 Seed 62.3% 65.2% 43.7%
Top 6 Seed 79.5% 81.9% 64.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.2% 96.1% 88.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.8% 95.0% 86.6%
Average Seed 3.9 3.8 4.9
.500 or above 98.4% 98.9% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.8% 95.4% 91.0%
Conference Champion 30.3% 31.6% 21.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 3.3%
First Round94.5% 95.6% 87.3%
Second Round82.9% 84.7% 71.2%
Sweet Sixteen55.4% 57.4% 42.3%
Elite Eight32.9% 34.4% 23.4%
Final Four18.9% 19.8% 12.6%
Championship Game10.3% 10.9% 6.5%
National Champion5.4% 5.7% 3.3%

Next Game: Butler (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 27 - 115 - 10
Quad 34 - 019 - 10
Quad 44 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 97-40 99%     1 - 0 +45.6 +24.0 +23.5
  Nov 09, 2024 3   Auburn L 69-74 43%     1 - 1 +15.4 +10.8 +3.9
  Nov 13, 2024 262   Louisiana W 91-45 99%     2 - 1 +37.2 +9.0 +27.1
  Nov 22, 2024 156   Hofstra W 80-44 96%     3 - 1 +33.3 +16.7 +20.6
  Nov 26, 2024 5   Alabama L 80-85 OT 50%     3 - 2 +13.5 +7.3 +6.6
  Nov 27, 2024 80   Notre Dame W 65-54 86%     4 - 2 +17.9 +4.1 +15.4
  Nov 30, 2024 37   San Diego St. L 70-73 OT 73%     4 - 3 +9.1 +12.1 -3.3
  Dec 07, 2024 54   Butler W 74-62 87%    
  Dec 10, 2024 125   Troy W 77-58 97%    
  Dec 18, 2024 203   Toledo W 83-60 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 215   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 81-57 99%    
  Dec 30, 2024 81   @ Oklahoma St. W 73-64 79%    
  Jan 04, 2025 49   BYU W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 06, 2025 78   TCU W 73-59 91%    
  Jan 11, 2025 59   @ Kansas St. W 69-63 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 45   West Virginia W 71-60 83%    
  Jan 18, 2025 83   @ Central Florida W 72-63 79%    
  Jan 21, 2025 60   Utah W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 25, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 67-70 39%    
  Jan 29, 2025 45   @ West Virginia W 68-63 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 24   Texas Tech W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 04, 2025 81   Oklahoma St. W 76-61 91%    
  Feb 08, 2025 85   @ Colorado W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 10, 2025 13   Baylor W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 15, 2025 23   @ Arizona W 73-72 55%    
  Feb 18, 2025 51   @ Arizona St. W 71-65 69%    
  Feb 22, 2025 8   Iowa St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 24, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech W 67-66 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 25   Cincinnati W 69-62 74%    
  Mar 03, 2025 7   Kansas W 70-67 61%    
  Mar 08, 2025 13   @ Baylor W 68-67 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.2 7.1 8.5 6.6 3.2 0.9 30.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.0 6.7 5.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 19.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.8 3.7 0.8 0.0 14.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.2 4.9 2.9 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.7 2.5 0.5 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.2 9.3 12.1 14.0 14.2 13.2 10.5 6.9 3.2 0.9 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.9% 3.2    3.1 0.1
18-2 95.8% 6.6    5.7 0.8 0.0
17-3 80.6% 8.5    5.9 2.4 0.2
16-4 53.9% 7.1    3.4 3.0 0.7 0.1
15-5 22.5% 3.2    0.9 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
14-6 5.3% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 20.0 7.8 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 55.2% 44.8% 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
19-1 3.2% 100.0% 44.5% 55.5% 1.2 2.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.9% 100.0% 40.3% 59.7% 1.4 4.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.5% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.7 4.9 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.2% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.2 3.4 5.1 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.2% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 3.0 1.3 3.3 4.7 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 14.0% 100.0% 18.7% 81.2% 4.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 4.2 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.1% 99.9% 13.1% 86.8% 5.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.5 3.1 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 9.3% 99.1% 8.7% 90.4% 6.3 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 6.2% 95.2% 6.5% 88.7% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.3 94.9%
10-10 4.2% 80.7% 4.9% 75.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.8 79.7%
9-11 2.6% 51.2% 4.2% 46.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 49.0%
8-12 1.4% 17.1% 1.5% 15.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.2 15.8%
7-13 0.7% 3.6% 1.2% 2.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.4%
6-14 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 95.2% 21.4% 73.8% 3.9 17.8 16.9 14.8 12.8 9.8 7.4 5.6 3.8 2.4 2.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.8 93.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.1 92.8 7.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 84.1 15.9