Houston
American Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.6#4
Expected Predictive Rating+15.0#28
Pace63.9#303
Improvement+2.2#42

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#17
First Shot+6.8#21
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#87
Layup/Dunks+2.4#91
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#59
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#116
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement+0.8#110

Defense
Total Defense+10.1#2
First Shot+8.5#12
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#85
Layups/Dunks+7.7#7
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#217
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows+0.6#158
Improvement+1.4#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4.1% 6.1% 2.5%
#1 Seed 21.1% 28.7% 14.9%
Top 2 Seed 40.9% 52.8% 31.2%
Top 4 Seed 69.6% 79.7% 61.4%
Top 6 Seed 84.8% 91.7% 79.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 99.7% 98.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.1% 99.1% 95.7%
Average Seed 3.7 3.0 4.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 80.7% 83.4% 78.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 1.1%
First Round98.6% 99.5% 97.8%
Second Round86.0% 90.0% 82.8%
Sweet Sixteen59.8% 65.6% 55.2%
Elite Eight36.9% 42.6% 32.3%
Final Four21.4% 25.7% 17.9%
Championship Game12.0% 14.7% 9.8%
National Champion6.4% 7.9% 5.2%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 14 - 3
Quad 28 - 112 - 4
Quad 39 - 021 - 5
Quad 48 - 029 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 125   Hofstra W 83-75 OT 95%     1 - 0 +7.8 +5.0 +2.7
  Nov 12, 2021 186   Rice W 79-46 97%     2 - 0 +29.1 +5.9 +25.5
  Nov 16, 2021 44   Virginia W 67-47 86%     3 - 0 +26.8 +12.1 +18.5
  Nov 22, 2021 107   Butler W 70-52 90%     4 - 0 +22.2 +7.4 +16.4
  Nov 23, 2021 28   Wisconsin L 63-65 71%     4 - 1 +10.7 +4.5 +6.0
  Nov 24, 2021 53   Oregon W 78-49 82%     5 - 1 +37.8 +11.3 +27.7
  Nov 30, 2021 340   Northwestern St. W 99-58 99.6%    6 - 1 +24.8 +15.1 +9.1
  Dec 03, 2021 258   Bryant W 111-44 98%     7 - 1 +59.0 +27.3 +27.7
  Dec 06, 2021 321   Alcorn St. W 77-45 99%     8 - 1 +19.5 +1.5 +18.8
  Dec 11, 2021 10   @ Alabama L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 14, 2021 189   Louisiana W 81-58 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 40   Oklahoma St. W 70-62 78%    
  Dec 22, 2021 141   Texas St. W 73-53 97%    
  Dec 28, 2021 55   Cincinnati W 70-57 89%    
  Jan 02, 2022 140   @ Temple W 74-60 90%    
  Jan 05, 2022 247   @ South Florida W 68-48 97%    
  Jan 08, 2022 54   Wichita St. W 69-56 89%    
  Jan 15, 2022 138   @ Tulsa W 72-58 89%    
  Jan 18, 2022 247   South Florida W 71-45 99%    
  Jan 22, 2022 172   East Carolina W 78-56 98%    
  Jan 29, 2022 63   @ Central Florida W 70-62 77%    
  Feb 02, 2022 160   Tulane W 76-55 97%    
  Feb 06, 2022 55   @ Cincinnati W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 09, 2022 87   @ SMU W 75-65 81%    
  Feb 12, 2022 34   Memphis W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 17, 2022 63   Central Florida W 73-59 89%    
  Feb 20, 2022 54   @ Wichita St. W 66-59 74%    
  Feb 23, 2022 160   @ Tulane W 73-58 91%    
  Feb 27, 2022 87   SMU W 78-62 92%    
  Mar 03, 2022 140   Temple W 77-57 96%    
  Mar 06, 2022 34   @ Memphis W 71-67 63%    
Projected Record 27 - 4 16 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.9 15.3 22.9 22.9 12.3 80.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.5 5.1 3.2 0.8 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.9 6.4 11.5 18.5 23.6 22.9 12.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 12.3    12.3
17-1 100.0% 22.9    22.5 0.4
16-2 96.8% 22.9    20.7 2.2 0.0
15-3 82.7% 15.3    11.1 4.0 0.2
14-4 51.7% 5.9    2.8 2.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 20.6% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 80.7% 80.7 69.7 9.6 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 12.3% 100.0% 76.2% 23.8% 1.5 7.7 3.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 22.9% 100.0% 69.0% 31.0% 1.9 9.4 8.0 3.6 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 23.6% 99.9% 62.9% 37.0% 2.9 3.5 6.4 6.1 5.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-3 18.5% 99.9% 55.8% 44.0% 4.3 0.5 1.7 3.5 5.3 3.6 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
14-4 11.5% 98.9% 49.0% 49.9% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.7%
13-5 6.4% 97.2% 43.1% 54.1% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 95.0%
12-6 2.9% 90.2% 33.0% 57.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 85.4%
11-7 1.2% 82.6% 28.5% 54.1% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 75.7%
10-8 0.5% 64.1% 18.3% 45.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 56.1%
9-9 0.2% 41.7% 21.4% 20.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.8%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 60.2% 38.7% 3.7 21.1 19.8 14.8 14.0 8.6 6.6 4.9 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.2 97.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.3% 100.0% 1.3 73.4 24.1 2.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.5 61.3 31.1 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.4 68.5 27.5 3.5 0.5