Houston
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +22.4 6
Expected Predictive Rating +23.5 5
Pace 60.3 358
Improvement +3.5 60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 7 B- B+ A+ C- F
Defense A 9 A B+ A+ C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% 360 A 71% 3 -2.5 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 138 B- 41% 85 +4.7 17
Three Pointers 42% 165 B- 36% 101 +1.6 127
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.0 353 B+ +5.8 27
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 76
Second Chance A- 38.4% 16 C 1.03 166 B+ 0.40 41
Turnovers A+ 11.6% 1
Freethrows D 0.26 314 B+ 78% 20 C- 0.20 245
Total Offense A +11.8 7

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 163 A+ 4.1% 1
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 32% 88 B 2.8% 42
Three Pointers C+ 87% 131 C- 1.1% 232
Total C 57% 155 A+ 2.4% 1

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 327 B 52% 43 -5.5 33
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 82 A+ 28% 2 -1.3 87
Three Pointers 44% 80 A- 29% 16 -1.6 112
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 59 A -7.6 4
1st FG Attempt A 0.85 5
Second Chance B 27.1% 69 B+ 0.90 30 B+ 0.25 34
Turnovers A+ 23.1% 4
Freethrows C- 0.33 248 A- 68% 11 C 0.22 189
Total Defense A +10.6 9

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 47% 155 A 18.6% 19
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 207 A- 9.3% 26
Three Pointers D+ 87% 262 D+ 0.5% 243
Total C- 57% 222 B+ 8.4% 27

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 214 19.1 359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 187 0.08 4
Improvement +3.5 #33 +0.0 #192

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 9 6 3
Conference Record 13 - 5 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 3 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 4 2 1
NCAA Tourney Finish 2nd Round Sweet 16 Champion

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 4% 6% 2%
#1 Seed 32% 41% 22%
Top 2 Seed 76% 85% 66%
Top 4 Seed 99% 100% 99%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 2.0 1.8 2.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 61% 91% 25%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round99% 99% 99%
Sweet Sixteen77% 78% 74%
Elite Eight49% 51% 46%
Final Four26% 29% 23%
Championship Game14% 15% 12%
National Champion7% 8% 6%

Next Game: Arizona (Home) - 55.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 09 - 5
Quad 210 - 019 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 305 Lehigh W 75 - 57 100% +15  99% 1 - 0 B- +6 D+ -3 F+ B- D- A +10 A C+ A-
 Sat, Nov 8 167 Towson W 65 - 48 98% +9  91% 2 - 0 B+ +14 D -5 C- C+ D- A+ +20 B+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 170 Oakland W 78 - 45 98% +21  99% 3 - 0 A+ +29 B +7 C- B A+ A+ +26 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 33 Auburn W 73 - 72 77% +3  79% 4 - 0 A- +16 B- +4 C C+ A- A+ +11 A+ A D+
 Thu, Nov 20 356 Rider W 91 - 45 100% +25  98% 5 - 0 A+ +28 A- +10 A+ F A- A+ +20 A A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 70 Syracuse W 78 - 74 OT 90% +2  64% 6 - 0 B+ +12 C +0 D A- B- A+ +12 B+ B+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 16 Tennessee L 73 - 76 65% +2  66% 6 - 1 A- +16 A+ +19 A+ B B+ D+ -4 A- C- D-
 Wed, Nov 26 84 Notre Dame W 66 - 56 92% +12  97% 7 - 1 A- +17 B +6 F A+ A+ A+ +13 A+ B D
 Sat, Dec 6 86 Florida St. W 82 - 67 92% +10  98% 8 - 1 A +22 A- +10 A+ D C+ A+ +12 A F+ A+
 Wed, Dec 10 332 Jackson St. W 80 - 38 100% +22  94% 9 - 1 A+ +28 B- +4 D A+ D+ A+ +28 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 209 New Orleans W 99 - 57 99% +25  98% 10 - 1 A+ +36 A+ +22 A+ D A+ A+ +15 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 17 Arkansas W 94 - 85 65% +10  93% 11 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +20 A+ A A+ A- +7 B C+ A-
 Mon, Dec 29 171 Middle Tennessee W 69 - 60 98% +5  76% 12 - 1 B- +5 B- +4 D+ C+ A B- +3 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 46 @Cincinnati W 67 - 60 78% -1  26% 13 - 1 1 - 0 A +21 A- +10 C+ A A+ A+ +12 B- A A+
 Tue, Jan 6 18 Texas Tech W 69 - 65 75% -0  37% 14 - 1 2 - 0 A +19 B- +4 C- A- A+ A+ +15 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 10 47 @Baylor W 77 - 55 78% +11  79% 15 - 1 3 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +16 C A A+ A+ +23 A+ A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 55 West Virginia W 77 - 48 92% +16  99% 16 - 1 4 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +19 B- A+ A+ A+ +21 A- A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 63 Arizona St. W 103 - 73 93% +22  99% 17 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +36 A+ +29 A+ A+ A+ A- +7 A F A+
 Sat, Jan 24 18 @Texas Tech L 86 - 90 54% -1  47% 17 - 2 5 - 1 A- +17 A+ +27 A+ B+ A+ F -10 A- F C
 Wed, Jan 28 50 @TCU W 79 - 70 80% +7  97% 18 - 2 6 - 1 A +23 A +12 A F A A +11 C A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 46 Cincinnati W 76 - 54 90% +13  88% 19 - 2 7 - 1 A+ +30 A+ +23 A B A+ A+ +11 B- B+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 52 Central Florida W 79 - 55 91% +14  92% 20 - 2 8 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +16 A B A+ A+ +19 A+ A B+
 Sat, Feb 7 21 @BYU W 77 - 66 58% +5  82% 21 - 2 9 - 1 A+ +31 A+ +24 B+ A+ A+ A +10 A+ A+ F+
 Tue, Feb 10 102 @Utah W 66 - 52 91% +12  96% 22 - 2 10 - 1 A +22 B +6 C B- A+ A+ +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 92 Kansas St. W 78 - 64 95% +8  72% 23 - 2 11 - 1 A- +17 C- -2 D+ C C- A+ +18 A+ B- A+
 Mon, Feb 16 7 @Iowa St. L 67 - 70 42% +0  48% 23 - 3 11 - 2 A +22 A+ +18 B+ A- A+ B- +3 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 3 Arizona W 73 - 72 55%
 Mon, Feb 23 15 @Kansas W 69 - 68 52%
 Sat, Feb 28 72 Colorado W 81 - 64 95%
 Wed, Mar 4 47 Baylor W 80 - 66 91%
 Sat, Mar 7 62 @Oklahoma St. W 81 - 71 84%
Totals 27 - 4 15 - 3 +22 A +12 A+ B+ F A +11 B- B+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A B- B- B+ 28% 41% 42% F B- A- C B+ A+ D B+ C- A B A+ A- A 32% 23% 44% B A B B+ B+ A+ C- A- C
1.26 71% 41% 36% +6 -2 1.09 38% 1.0 .40 12% .26 78% .20 0.93 52% 28% 29% -8 -1 0.85 27% 0.9 .25 23% .33 68% .18
Nov
3		 Lehigh D+ F A+ F+ D+ 22% 43% 35% F F+ A- D+ B- D- B A- A- A A+ C+ B A 27% 43% 30% A+ A D A- C+ A- F A- F
1.10 36% 52% 29% -1 -4 0.92 42% 0.9 .39 19% .36 80% .29 0.84 42% 37% 31% -6 -4 0.82 24% 0.8 .19 22% .43 65% .28
Nov
8		 Towson D A+ F F D+ 32% 15% 53% C+ C- B D+ C+ D- F C+ F A+ B F A+ A 38% 24% 38% D- B+ A C+ B+ A+ C- A+ B+
1.00 82% 25% 21% -4 0 0.94 32% 0.9 .29 18% .13 71% .09 0.74 50% 50% 19% -9 0 0.83 28% 0.8 .22 28% .30 50% .15
Nov
12		 Oakland B A+ F D C 24% 35% 42% F C- A D+ B A+ F F F A+ A A+ A+ A+ 42% 30% 28% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B- A B+
1.26 92% 32% 30% +4 -3 1.04 45% 0.9 .40 10% .14 63% .09 0.73 44% 23% 25% -14 -1 0.72 26% 0.6 .16 21% .31 67% .20
Nov
16		 Auburn B- B- A+ F+ B- 28% 33% 39% F C A F C+ A- F+ A+ D+ A+ A A B A+ 36% 22% 42% A- A+ B+ B+ A D+ F A+ F+
1.09 60% 50% 29% +1 -2 1.00 38% 0.8 .30 15% .21 83% .18 1.08 50% 30% 32% -6 0 0.89 35% 0.9 .33 12% .56 64% .36
Nov
20		 Rider A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 26% 36% F A+ D+ F F A- F A+ F A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 27% 33% D- A D+ A+ A- A+ B+ F D+
1.35 77% 53% 48% +19 -1 1.38 31% 0.7 .21 10% .12 100% .12 0.67 44% 25% 20% -16 -1 0.69 33% 0.6 .19 34% .20 100% .20
Nov
24		 Syracuse C A- F C C- 26% 34% 40% F D B+ B A- B- A+ D+ A+ A+ F A+ A- A 37% 10% 53% D B+ B- A- B+ B- F A+ B
1.04 64% 11% 33% -8 -3 0.81 37% 1.2 .46 17% .43 70% .30 0.98 74% 0% 30% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.9 .26 17% .47 41% .19
Nov
25		 Tennessee A+ A A- A+ A+ 29% 35% 37% F A+ A+ F B B+ F+ A- D D+ D- A+ A- A 45% 14% 40% D A- B+ F+ C- D- F F F
1.21 67% 44% 42% +9 -2 1.15 44% 0.7 .29 15% .21 73% .16 1.26 68% 0% 29% -4 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 15% .56 79% .45
Nov
26		 Notre Dame B F F F F 16% 31% 53% F F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ C+ A A+ A+ 24% 17% 59% C A+ A+ D- B D F F+ F
1.12 29% 14% 25% -19 -3 0.58 39% 1.5 .59 8% .43 78% .33 0.95 60% 29% 21% -13 -1 0.76 24% 1.1 .27 14% .41 76% .31
Dec
6		 Florida St. A- B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 20% 42% B- A+ B+ F D C+ F A- F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 41% 5% 55% D- A F C+ F+ A+ D- C+ D
1.18 62% 55% 43% +11 0 1.24 36% 0.6 .21 19% .16 78% .12 0.97 56% 0% 25% -10 +2 0.86 41% 1.1 .46 27% .36 72% .26
Dec
10		 Jackson St. B- A- A+ F C 15% 33% 52% F D A A+ A+ D+ F F F A+ A+ A+ B- A- 17% 20% 63% C B+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.24 71% 56% 28% +3 -3 1.02 46% 1.4 .64 17% .24 54% .13 0.59 29% 25% 31% -11 -1 0.78 23% 0.4 .10 39% .13 60% .08
Dec
13		 New Orleans A+ A+ A A+ A+ 25% 40% 36% F A+ C F D A+ A+ B A+ A+ A+ C A- A 20% 45% 35% A+ A+ B F F A+ F F F
1.46 77% 52% 47% +18 -3 1.30 34% 0.8 .28 9% .50 77% .39 0.84 25% 39% 29% -9 -4 0.75 31% 1.6 .50 31% .49 83% .41
Dec
20		 Arkansas A+ A D- A+ A+ 33% 23% 44% C- A+ B- A+ A A+ A+ A A+ A- C B- D B 40% 23% 38% B- B C C+ C+ A- F A+ F
1.28 68% 31% 44% +8 -1 1.18 31% 1.6 .50 12% .39 76% .30 1.16 63% 36% 39% +4 0 1.10 34% 1.3 .43 16% .57 60% .34
Dec
29		 Middle Tennessee B- A+ F F C 35% 33% 33% F D+ A+ F C+ A C A+ B B- F D+ F F 29% 17% 54% C- F F A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 88% 13% 27% -1 -2 0.96 39% 0.8 .31 10% .32 88% .28 1.01 75% 43% 41% +11 0 1.24 39% 0.5 .21 32% .15 50% .07
Jan
3		 Cincinnati A- B+ D- D B- 30% 30% 40% D C+ A B- A A+ F A+ F+ A+ B+ C- C B 45% 12% 43% F B- A A A A+ D F+ F+
1.05 60% 33% 30% -3 -2 0.92 34% 1.2 .40 13% .16 78% .13 0.94 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 24% 0.9 .21 23% .33 75% .25
Jan
6		 Texas Tech B- A D+ F C 22% 48% 30% F C- B+ B+ A- A+ A A+ A+ A+ A F+ A A+ 29% 16% 55% C- A+ A+ F B A+ B+ F C
1.04 67% 35% 25% -4 -5 0.85 31% 1.1 .33 9% .36 77% .28 0.98 50% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 25% 1.3 .31 21% .21 91% .19
Jan
10		 Baylor A+ A+ C+ D+ C+ 7% 44% 48% F C A+ D- A A+ D+ F F+ A+ D+ A+ F A 9% 43% 49% A+ A+ A B+ A A+ F A+ F
1.24 100% 42% 31% +2 -5 0.96 49% 0.8 .40 8% .23 62% .14 0.89 67% 20% 41% -2 -5 0.89 31% 1.0 .31 26% .67 58% .39
Jan
13		 West Virginia A+ A F+ C- B- 19% 17% 65% D+ B- A A+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ B- A+ D+ B+ 21% 26% 52% A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+
1.25 67% 25% 32% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.6 .54 11% .39 76% .29 0.78 56% 18% 36% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 24% .22 50% .11
Jan
18		 Arizona St. A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ 29% 34% 36% F A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ F A+ D A- A C B+ A+ 38% 18% 44% C- A F D F A+ F F F
1.46 82% 45% 48% +17 -2 1.31 47% 1.2 .56 14% .20 92% .18 1.03 47% 38% 30% -7 0 0.89 42% 1.3 .55 24% .45 83% .37
Jan
24		 Texas Tech A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 17% 42% 40% F A+ A- B- B+ A+ A A+ A+ F B+ A+ F A- 24% 26% 50% B+ A- F C F C F F F
1.32 78% 45% 43% +12 -4 1.17 32% 1.0 .32 9% .36 81% .29 1.38 55% 25% 43% +3 -2 1.04 55% 1.0 .58 15% .54 80% .44
Jan
28		 TCU A B- A+ A A+ 26% 32% 43% F A D F F A A+ A+ A+ A D+ D A C 52% 25% 23% C C A+ A+ A+ B- F A D
1.13 58% 53% 40% +9 -2 1.15 21% 0.5 .10 16% .41 92% .37 1.00 64% 42% 27% +2 0 1.06 22% 0.7 .16 17% .43 64% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Cincinnati A+ B- A+ A- A+ 18% 39% 43% F A A- D+ B A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- A F D+ 10% 44% 46% A+ B- F A+ B+ A+ D A C
1.28 56% 53% 38% +8 -4 1.10 32% 1.0 .32 7% .33 83% .27 0.91 50% 28% 47% +4 -5 1.00 40% 0.7 .27 32% .32 62% .20
Feb
4		 Central Florida A+ A+ A+ F A+ 35% 39% 26% F A A+ F+ B A+ F B- F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 24% 36% 40% A+ A+ A+ C A B+ F F F
1.28 79% 67% 14% +11 -3 1.19 39% 0.8 .32 8% .14 75% .11 0.89 45% 25% 22% -15 -3 0.67 26% 1.2 .32 18% .39 85% .34
Feb
7		 BYU A+ A+ C- A A+ 16% 53% 31% F B+ A+ A A+ A+ B A+ A- A D- B+ B A 16% 40% 44% A+ A+ B A+ A+ F+ F A+ F+
1.31 88% 35% 40% +6 -6 1.02 37% 1.3 .49 7% .27 80% .22 1.12 71% 35% 32% 0 -4 0.93 34% 0.8 .27 10% .53 57% .30
Feb
10		 Utah B F+ C+ B+ C+ 33% 20% 47% D+ C B C B- A+ F F F A+ F A+ A+ A+ 42% 19% 40% C A+ A+ A- A+ A+ C B- C+
1.12 47% 40% 38% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 9% .19 50% .09 0.89 78% 25% 12% -7 +1 0.88 20% 0.8 .16 22% .31 71% .22
Feb
14		 Kansas St. C- C C F+ C 30% 36% 34% F D+ C- B- C C- A+ B+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 38% 17% 45% C+ A+ A- D B- A+ F A F
1.03 56% 37% 28% -4 -3 0.89 32% 1.3 .39 20% .50 77% .38 0.85 50% 13% 24% -14 0 0.74 27% 1.2 .32 22% .43 64% .27
Feb
16		 Iowa St. A+ B B+ B- A- 16% 24% 59% D+ B+ C+ A+ A- A+ D+ F+ D B- D+ D- D C 38% 19% 43% C+ C+ A+ A A+ F F+ A+ B-
1.15 63% 42% 34% +2 -2 1.02 28% 1.3 .38 12% .21 64% .14 1.20 67% 44% 40% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.9 .21 5% .40 50% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 4.5 34.5 22.3 61.3 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 20.8 6.9 29.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.7 2.6 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.8 7.6 27.8 41.5 22.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 22.3    22.3
15-3 83.3% 34.5    12.5 20.8 1.3
14-4 16.2% 4.5    0.1 1.1 2.1 1.2 0.1
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 61.3% 61.3 34.8 21.9 3.4 1.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 22.3% 100.0% 31.4% 68.6% 1.5 11.9 9.1 1.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 41.5% 100.0% 26.8% 73.2% 1.8 14.4 20.3 6.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
14-4 27.8% 100.0% 21.1% 78.9% 2.3 5.3 12.2 8.1 2.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 7.6% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 2.8 0.6 2.4 2.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.8% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 3.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 2.0 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.0% 100.0% 1.3 74.4 25.2 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4% 100.0% 1.6 49.6 44.9 5.5 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.7% 100.0% 1.7 42.7 49.2 7.7 0.4