Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -2.0 189
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 203
Pace 67.8 203
Improvement +3.3 66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 248 D+ C C- C D+
Defense C 148 C- C B C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 220 D+ 54% 273 -2.1 258
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 72 D+ 35% 266 +1.3 103
Three Pointers 37% 272 C 34% 172 -2.1 251
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 288 C- -2.0 251
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 270
Second Chance C+ 31.7% 144 C- 0.99 237 C 0.31 167
Turnovers C- 17.3% 211
Freethrows C 0.30 193 C+ 74% 136 C 0.22 164
Total Offense C- -2.7 248

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 94 D- 14.3% 335
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 35% 58 C+ 4.4% 134
Three Pointers C 84% 199 C- 1.1% 234
Total C+ 58% 114 D 6.8% 304

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 125 C 58% 173 +1.2 218
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 260 B- 36% 91 -1.4 79
Three Pointers 41% 168 D+ 36% 282 +1.5 262
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.5 260 C- +0.7 211
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 224
Second Chance D+ 32.4% 264 B- 0.96 77 C 0.31 177
Turnovers B 19.1% 54
Freethrows C+ 0.29 144 C- 73% 233 C+ 0.21 154
Total Defense C +0.8 148

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 107 C+ 12.1% 125
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 64 B+ 8.2% 40
Three Pointers C 84% 165 A+ 2.9% 9
Total C+ 54% 147 B 7.6% 49

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 185 17.4 210
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 99 0.19 243
Improvement +0.9 #140 +2.4 #65

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 225 192 160
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 12 - 6
Conference Finish 7 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5% 7% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.4 14.9
.500 or above 61% 84% 50%
.500 or above in Conference 96% 100% 94%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round5% 7% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 36 - 46 - 9
Quad 410 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 212 @La Salle L 60 - 73 42% -3  14% 0 - 1 D- -13 F -10 F+ C+ F D+ -4 D+ C+ C
 Thu, Nov 13 56 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 9% -2  39% 0 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 F A+ F B +4 B A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 18 70 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 12% -5  13% 0 - 3 B- +6 C +1 C+ D- B B +5 B- C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 177 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 59% -1  42% 1 - 3 C- -3 D- -6 F A- C B- +3 B C+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 313 Ball St. W 80 - 73 76% +4  72% 2 - 3 C- -2 B +7 C+ B+ A F+ -9 F B D+
 Sat, Nov 29 296 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 71% -1  27% 2 - 4 D- -12 C+ +3 F A+ B+ F -14 F D- C+
 Sun, Nov 30 322 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 70% +13  92% 3 - 4 B- +7 A- +10 A+ F D+ C- -3 D+ C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 250 Princeton W 63 - 58 72% +3  80% 4 - 4 C- -3 F -14 F+ F C A+ +12 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 141 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 28% -2  18% 4 - 5 D+ -8 D -6 F+ C+ A+ C- -2 D+ B B+
 Sun, Dec 14 266 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 53% -0  52% 4 - 6 D -11 D- -6 D D- C D -5 F+ D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 193 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 62% -15  0% 4 - 7 F+ -15 C- -2 C- F C- F -13 F C- D+
 Sun, Dec 21 305 Lehigh W 76 - 62 82% +7  95% 5 - 7 C+ +2 C- -1 A F+ F B +4 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 191 Campbell L 65 - 68 62% +2  72% 5 - 8 0 - 1 D+ -8 F+ -9 F C- A+ C+ +1 A F A
 Sat, Jan 3 167 @Towson W 62 - 48 33% +7  85% 6 - 8 1 - 1 A- +17 D+ -3 C- C+ F A+ +21 A A+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 134 William & Mary W 81 - 70 48% +3  69% 7 - 8 2 - 1 B +10 C +2 C A- B+ A- +8 B+ F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 108 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 20% +1  38% 7 - 9 2 - 2 C+ +4 F+ -10 F D D A+ +14 A+ A C
 Thu, Jan 15 222 Drexel L 51 - 73 67% -14  1% 7 - 10 2 - 3 F -28 F -16 F C- F F -16 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 289 Northeastern W 81 - 68 79% +1  44% 8 - 10 3 - 3 C+ +3 D+ -4 D B A B+ +6 C- A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 257 @Hampton L 63 - 65 52% -3  16% 8 - 11 3 - 4 C- -4 D -6 C- B+ F C+ +1 C+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 24 191 @Campbell W 88 - 73 39% +5  80% 9 - 11 4 - 4 A- +16 B+ +9 A A+ F B+ +7 B+ A F
 Thu, Jan 29 288 N.C. A&T W 83 - 81 OT 79% -2  22% 10 - 11 5 - 4 D -8 D+ -2 F C+ B+ D -6 C+ F B
 Sat, Jan 31 108 Hofstra L 57 - 73 39% -10  0% 10 - 12 5 - 5 F+ -15 F -14 D- F A+ C- -2 F+ F A+
 Thu, Feb 5 216 @Stony Brook W 76 - 75 43% +8  98% 11 - 12 6 - 5 C +1 C- -1 C- F+ B- C+ +1 D D+ A+
 Thu, Feb 12 222 @Drexel W 93 - 73 44% +16  91% 12 - 12 7 - 5 A +20 A+ +18 A A- B- C+ +1 D- A B-
 Sun, Feb 15 167 Towson W 72 - 71 56% -3  18% 13 - 12 8 - 5 C- -2 C+ +3 C+ D A D -5 F F A+
 Thu, Feb 19 111 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 79 21% +0  40% 13 - 13 8 - 6 C- -3 D -5 C F F B- +2 A- B+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 151 @College of Charleston L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 216 Stony Brook W 71 - 67 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 203 Elon W 77 - 73 64%
 Tue, Mar 3 289 @Northeastern W 77 - 75 59%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 8 -2 C- -3 B+ C- D+ C +1 C C+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ D+ C C- 37% 48% 37% D+ D+ C+ C- C C- C C+ C C C B- D+ C- 41% 18% 41% D+ C- D+ B- C B C+ C- C+
1.05 54% 35% 34% -2 -1 0.96 32% 1.0 .31 17% .30 74% .22 1.08 58% 36% 36% +1 0 1.05 32% 1.0 .31 19% .29 73% .22
Nov
8		 La Salle F C- A+ F F 43% 12% 45% B F+ B- C C+ F A D+ B+ D+ B- A+ F C- 54% 20% 26% F D+ F A+ C+ C F D F
0.91 56% 60% 21% -7 +1 0.90 32% 1.1 .35 24% .34 65% .22 1.10 52% 11% 50% -2 +1 1.00 45% 0.7 .30 18% .52 75% .39
Nov
13		 Seton Hall D+ F B+ F F 51% 19% 30% B F C A+ A+ F A+ A- A+ B A+ F D- A- 51% 12% 37% F B D+ A+ A+ F+ F F+ F
0.87 26% 43% 27% -18 +1 0.68 30% 1.7 .50 30% .58 78% .45 1.05 38% 50% 37% -7 +2 0.92 37% 0.6 .21 12% .46 78% .36
Nov
18		 Syracuse C F D B+ C+ 37% 14% 49% B- C+ D+ D- D- B A+ A A+ B C A+ F+ B+ 53% 12% 35% F B- A- F C+ B- F A F
1.03 39% 29% 38% -6 +1 0.92 27% 1.0 .27 17% .43 80% .34 1.10 61% 0% 40% 0 +2 1.07 26% 1.2 .32 17% .56 58% .32
Nov
23		 Robert Morris D- F C+ D- F+ 30% 33% 37% F F B+ B A- C A+ C+ A+ B- C F A+ B- 29% 36% 36% A+ B F+ A C+ C- A+ A+ A+
1.03 43% 40% 29% -7 -2 0.85 36% 1.1 .39 16% .54 77% .42 1.02 56% 55% 20% -2 -3 0.93 42% 0.9 .37 17% .14 25% .04
Nov
28		 Ball St. B D- C+ A+ B- 39% 27% 35% D+ C+ B- B+ B+ A B+ F C+ F+ D- C- F F 33% 20% 47% B- F C+ A B D+ A+ B A+
1.20 53% 38% 47% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.2 .44 14% .33 68% .23 1.10 61% 36% 42% +7 0 1.15 24% 0.7 .16 15% .11 67% .07
Nov
29		 Le Moyne C+ D C F F 38% 28% 34% D- F B+ A+ A+ B+ B+ B A- F F F D+ F 40% 9% 51% D- F C F D- C+ F F F
1.16 50% 33% 22% -10 -1 0.79 38% 1.7 .63 12% .36 77% .28 1.21 71% 50% 36% +8 +2 1.21 25% 1.3 .32 20% .51 79% .40
Nov
30		 Lafayette A- A B A+ A+ 38% 33% 29% D- A+ F F F D+ A+ D+ A+ C- D+ B- F+ F+ 29% 31% 40% A+ D+ B D C+ C F F F
1.25 72% 44% 57% +17 -2 1.33 23% 0.8 .18 16% .52 71% .37 1.05 60% 31% 38% +1 -2 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 17% .38 77% .29
Dec
3		 Princeton F C+ F F F+ 43% 31% 27% D- F+ F D F C B- A+ A- A+ D A+ B C+ 48% 4% 48% F C- A A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+
0.94 62% 27% 23% -6 -1 0.88 18% 1.0 .18 13% .33 84% .28 0.86 61% 0% 30% -3 +3 1.02 20% 0.5 .10 28% .19 67% .12
Dec
6		 Georgia Tech D F D- C F+ 38% 28% 34% C- F+ B- D+ C+ A+ D- D- D- C- C F D D+ 48% 24% 28% D+ D+ C- A B B+ F F F
0.95 39% 29% 33% -10 -1 0.80 33% 1.0 .33 8% .23 67% .15 1.12 59% 45% 38% +4 0 1.11 33% 0.9 .30 21% .47 81% .38
Dec
14		 Fairfield D- C- F F+ D- 56% 13% 31% B D D+ F+ D- C F B+ F D B C+ F F+ 51% 21% 28% D- F+ F C+ D- D+ A+ A+ A+
1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07 1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02
Dec
17		 Quinnipiac C- A F F D+ 57% 18% 24% B C- B- F F C- A A+ A+ F F A D F 44% 22% 35% D F D C+ C- D+ C- B- C
1.04 68% 11% 25% -3 +2 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 18% .37 86% .32 1.18 75% 25% 37% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.0 .35 15% .30 67% .20
Dec
21		 Lehigh C- C B- A+ A+ 40% 35% 25% F+ A C F F+ F F F F B D+ F D F 32% 17% 51% D F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.13 57% 44% 62% +12 -2 1.23 34% 0.6 .22 21% .19 60% .11 0.92 60% 63% 38% +7 0 1.17 31% 0.6 .17 30% .08 50% .04
Dec
31		 Campbell F+ D F F F 47% 26% 28% C F D+ C C- A+ A+ F A C+ A+ A+ C A+ 58% 7% 35% F A D F F A F C- F
1.00 55% 25% 23% -9 0 0.83 28% 1.2 .33 11% .45 65% .29 1.05 40% 0% 33% -13 +3 0.81 38% 1.2 .46 23% .60 73% .44
Jan
3		 Towson D+ F A+ D- C+ 28% 38% 35% F C- C+ C+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ 35% 17% 48% F A B- A+ A+ C A+ F A+
0.98 45% 53% 29% -1 -3 0.95 29% 1.0 .29 24% .39 84% .33 0.76 39% 22% 28% -14 0 0.75 34% 0.4 .13 17% .11 83% .10
Jan
8		 William & Mary C B+ F A- C+ 34% 23% 43% D C C+ A+ A- B+ C- F+ D+ A- C D A B 40% 24% 36% A B+ F C F+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.12 67% 17% 39% +1 -1 1.04 32% 1.3 .43 15% .28 65% .18 0.97 60% 42% 28% -2 0 0.98 33% 1.2 .38 24% .27 47% .13
Jan
10		 Hofstra F+ F F D+ F 29% 29% 42% D F F A D D A A- A+ A+ A+ B A+ A+ 27% 27% 46% B- A+ C- A+ A C F F F
0.90 40% 20% 32% -12 -2 0.75 20% 1.3 .24 17% .39 78% .30 0.94 31% 31% 23% -17 -2 0.65 35% 0.8 .26 17% .56 88% .49
Jan
15		 Drexel F B F F F 40% 33% 28% D F A F C- F A C+ A F A F F F 27% 20% 54% B F F D- F B F A+ C
0.86 63% 23% 18% -10 -1 0.80 42% 0.7 .31 23% .39 78% .31 1.23 45% 50% 55% +16 -1 1.32 42% 1.0 .42 22% .34 50% .17
Jan
19		 Northeastern D+ F+ B- B- D 36% 19% 46% D+ D C+ A- B A F F F B+ F F A+ C- 47% 15% 38% D+ C- F A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ C
1.13 52% 45% 37% +1 0 1.05 34% 1.1 .39 13% .19 58% .11 0.95 72% 50% 20% 0 +1 1.06 35% 0.2 .05 25% .26 71% .19
Jan
22		 Hampton D B- F B C 33% 26% 41% D- C- B B- B+ F F F F C+ A+ A+ F B- 35% 28% 37% C C+ B+ F D- C F D- F
0.98 67% 25% 37% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.1 .38 25% .25 42% .10 1.01 40% 17% 44% -7 -1 0.86 29% 1.3 .38 19% .42 77% .32
Jan
24		 Campbell B+ A- D A+ A+ 46% 26% 28% C- A A- A- A+ F A+ F A B+ B+ A+ B+ A- 47% 9% 44% D B+ A+ B A F D+ B- C
1.22 71% 33% 54% +13 0 1.28 39% 1.4 .54 24% .45 64% .29 1.01 50% 20% 29% -9 +2 0.89 24% 0.9 .21 11% .41 69% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 N.C. A&T D+ D A- F F 44% 26% 30% D+ F C+ C- C+ B+ B+ A+ A+ D C C A+ B 51% 27% 22% F+ C+ F F F B D+ F F
1.12 52% 47% 24% -5 0 0.91 29% 1.0 .29 11% .38 84% .32 1.09 56% 38% 18% -6 0 0.90 41% 1.8 .72 22% .39 87% .34
Jan
31		 Hofstra F F+ A F D+ 25% 45% 30% F D- F F+ F A+ F C+ F C- C- F F F 23% 27% 50% B+ F+ F+ F F A+ A- D B+
0.88 46% 46% 19% -6 -4 0.81 19% 0.9 .16 9% .19 73% .14 1.12 60% 50% 41% +9 -2 1.16 40% 1.6 .64 29% .22 80% .17
Feb
5		 Stony Brook C- C+ F B- C- 35% 23% 42% D+ C- C- F F+ B- A B+ A C+ F+ A+ F+ D 34% 10% 56% D D D C D+ A+ D F F
1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29 1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26
Feb
12		 Drexel A+ F+ A+ A+ A 41% 20% 39% B- A A- B A- B- A A A+ C+ F A+ B- D 53% 10% 37% F D- A+ A A B- F+ F F
1.30 48% 60% 45% +6 0 1.16 39% 1.1 .44 14% .39 83% .32 1.02 69% 20% 33% +4 +2 1.14 20% 0.7 .13 21% .34 79% .26
Feb
15		 Towson C+ F D- A+ B- 28% 24% 48% D C+ A+ F D A B F C D D D+ F F 30% 32% 39% B- F D F F A+ F A+ B-
1.11 36% 33% 46% +1 -1 1.02 43% 0.5 .20 11% .31 61% .19 1.09 62% 43% 41% +7 -2 1.11 40% 1.3 .53 25% .37 44% .16
Feb
19		 UNC Wilmington D A+ F+ C- B 22% 43% 35% F C B- F F F A+ A+ A+ B- A- A+ F+ A 45% 20% 35% F+ A- A+ D- B+ F+ F F F
0.96 90% 30% 31% +2 -4 0.98 30% 0.5 .15 25% .41 86% .35 1.10 48% 0% 39% -9 +1 0.84 24% 1.2 .30 11% .55 80% .44



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 1.9 7.3 9.2 2nd
3rd 1.6 14.0 1.4 17.0 3rd
4th 0.5 26.0 14.4 40.9 4th
5th 4.2 8.6 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 8.6 0.6 9.2 6th
7th 0.4 5.8 6.2 7th
8th 1.8 0.9 2.7 8th
9th 1.7 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 4.3 20.0 36.7 30.3 8.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 8.7% 9.3% 9.3% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 7.9
11-7 30.3% 7.8% 7.8% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.1 27.9
10-8 36.7% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.5 0.2 34.8
9-9 20.0% 1.8% 1.8% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 19.7
8-10 4.3% 1.2% 1.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 4.3
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 14.7 94.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 13.6 0.8 37.8 57.7 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 2.4%