Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.5#287
Expected Predictive Rating-11.8#334
Pace68.8#188
Improvement+1.6#80

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#250
First Shot-3.4#276
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#150
Layup/Dunks-5.1#330
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#171
Freethrows+0.3#163
Improvement-0.2#206

Defense
Total Defense-3.6#293
First Shot-3.2#282
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#216
Layups/Dunks-2.1#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#215
Freethrows-1.7#285
Improvement+1.8#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 0.9% 2.9% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.1% 32.5% 22.0%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 17.4% 11.0% 18.2%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round0.6% 0.9% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Princeton (Away) - 10.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 32 - 93 - 15
Quad 46 - 99 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 27   @ Michigan St. L 57-81 3%     0 - 1 -7.7 -9.2 +2.2
  Nov 08, 2024 118   Temple L 74-103 19%     0 - 2 -26.2 -1.6 -23.1
  Nov 12, 2024 338   @ Northern Illinois L 66-79 55%     0 - 3 -20.7 -10.4 -10.1
  Nov 15, 2024 58   @ Rutgers L 81-98 5%     0 - 4 -4.5 +14.3 -18.7
  Nov 18, 2024 94   @ Wichita St. L 66-70 9%     0 - 5 +4.6 -1.2 +5.8
  Nov 21, 2024 229   Youngstown St. L 62-72 39%     0 - 6 -13.8 -11.9 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2024 197   @ Stephen F. Austin L 67-72 23%     0 - 7 -3.7 +1.8 -5.6
  Nov 23, 2024 248   Presbyterian L 61-71 43%     0 - 8 -14.6 -7.8 -7.9
  Nov 30, 2024 116   @ Seton Hall W 63-51 12%     1 - 8 +18.0 +9.5 +10.4
  Dec 04, 2024 251   @ Lehigh L 63-90 33%     1 - 9 -28.9 -12.5 -16.7
  Dec 10, 2024 108   @ Princeton L 68-81 10%    
  Dec 21, 2024 283   Fairfield W 73-70 60%    
  Dec 30, 2024 3   @ Auburn L 62-92 0.3%   
  Jan 02, 2025 327   Stony Brook W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 04, 2025 213   @ Delaware L 74-81 27%    
  Jan 09, 2025 140   UNC Wilmington L 69-74 32%    
  Jan 11, 2025 127   College of Charleston L 73-78 31%    
  Jan 16, 2025 311   @ N.C. A&T L 78-79 45%    
  Jan 18, 2025 278   @ Campbell L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 23, 2025 173   @ Elon L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 25, 2025 219   @ William & Mary L 76-82 28%    
  Jan 30, 2025 167   Drexel L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 213   Delaware L 77-78 46%    
  Feb 06, 2025 264   Hampton W 70-68 58%    
  Feb 08, 2025 147   Towson L 63-67 35%    
  Feb 13, 2025 327   @ Stony Brook L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 15, 2025 147   @ Towson L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 20, 2025 156   @ Hofstra L 63-73 19%    
  Feb 22, 2025 152   Northeastern L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 27, 2025 173   Elon L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 167   @ Drexel L 65-74 21%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.1 0.1 3.8 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 2.3 0.3 5.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.9 3.7 0.9 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 4.5 2.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.8 5.5 1.4 0.0 11.2 10th
11th 0.5 3.4 6.1 2.5 0.1 12.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.1 3.3 0.5 0.0 13.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.9 5.0 3.3 0.6 0.0 12.4 13th
14th 0.3 1.2 2.8 3.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 10.2 14th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.4 6.8 10.4 13.8 14.6 14.1 12.1 9.3 6.2 4.1 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 83.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 56.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 28.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 11.9% 11.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.4% 14.6% 14.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.0% 10.5% 10.5% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
12-6 2.1% 6.0% 6.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.9
11-7 4.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.9
10-8 6.2% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 6.1
9-9 9.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 9.2
8-10 12.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.1
7-11 14.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.0
6-12 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.8
4-14 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.4
3-15 6.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.8
2-16 3.4% 3.4
1-17 1.2% 1.2
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%