Rhode Island
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.7#77
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#104
Pace66.4#251
Improvement-0.4#223

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#103
First Shot-0.1#189
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#58
Layup/Dunks+2.1#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#217
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#304
Freethrows+3.5#23
Improvement-0.5#225

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#59
First Shot+6.8#21
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#307
Layups/Dunks+7.5#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#257
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#163
Freethrows-0.2#197
Improvement+0.0#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.5% 15.9% 8.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.3% 5.5% 1.8%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.8
.500 or above 97.0% 97.4% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.4% 87.9% 78.4%
Conference Champion 15.0% 15.3% 9.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
First Four2.6% 2.7% 1.1%
First Round14.3% 14.6% 8.0%
Second Round4.7% 4.8% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.4% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 94.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 34 - 6
Quad 39 - 413 - 10
Quad 49 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 156   Boston University W 71-62 80%     1 - 0 +6.7 -5.8 +12.2
  Nov 12, 2021 258   Bryant W 83-64 91%     2 - 0 +11.0 +0.7 +9.1
  Nov 17, 2021 113   Boston College W 57-49 72%     3 - 0 +8.7 -7.2 +17.0
  Nov 20, 2021 138   Tulsa L 71-77 67%     3 - 1 -4.0 +4.7 -9.2
  Nov 21, 2021 113   Boston College W 71-65 61%     4 - 1 +9.7 +10.2 +0.3
  Nov 23, 2021 213   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 66-67 71%     4 - 2 +0.1 -0.7 +0.6
  Nov 27, 2021 145   Georgia St. W 94-59 78%     5 - 2 +33.5 +15.1 +17.7
  Dec 01, 2021 151   @ Harvard W 64-57 59%     6 - 2 +11.4 -3.7 +15.3
  Dec 04, 2021 47   @ Providence L 52-66 28%     6 - 3 -1.4 -9.7 +6.8
  Dec 07, 2021 291   Sacred Heart W 78-61 95%    
  Dec 13, 2021 272   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-61 82%    
  Dec 19, 2021 185   College of Charleston W 80-72 76%    
  Dec 22, 2021 180   Brown W 70-60 83%    
  Dec 30, 2021 98   Dayton W 67-63 66%    
  Jan 02, 2022 248   La Salle W 74-60 90%    
  Jan 05, 2022 139   @ George Mason W 68-66 57%    
  Jan 08, 2022 70   @ Davidson L 65-68 37%    
  Jan 12, 2022 207   Saint Joseph's W 78-67 85%    
  Jan 15, 2022 119   @ Massachusetts W 77-76 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 264   George Washington W 74-59 92%    
  Jan 25, 2022 62   Richmond W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 28, 2022 98   @ Dayton L 64-66 44%    
  Feb 02, 2022 235   @ Fordham W 69-61 75%    
  Feb 05, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 08, 2022 82   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-63 41%    
  Feb 12, 2022 70   Davidson W 68-65 59%    
  Feb 19, 2022 264   @ George Washington W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 22, 2022 45   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 26, 2022 212   Duquesne W 74-62 85%    
  Mar 02, 2022 65   Saint Louis W 72-70 57%    
  Mar 05, 2022 207   @ Saint Joseph's W 75-70 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 4.3 4.9 2.9 1.2 0.2 15.0 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 6.1 5.0 1.7 0.2 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.5 6.0 5.2 1.2 0.1 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.8 5.5 1.2 0.0 12.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.4 5.8 1.5 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.1 5.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 3.9 2.6 0.3 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.0 9.5 12.3 14.8 15.2 13.9 10.5 6.6 3.1 1.2 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.2    1.1 0.1
16-2 92.7% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 73.2% 4.9    3.0 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 40.7% 4.3    1.5 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.3% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 8.4 4.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 92.3% 43.3% 49.0% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.4%
17-1 1.2% 83.2% 34.8% 48.4% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 74.2%
16-2 3.1% 64.5% 29.5% 35.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 49.7%
15-3 6.6% 46.1% 23.7% 22.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.7 0.1 3.6 29.4%
14-4 10.5% 28.9% 20.2% 8.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 7.5 10.8%
13-5 13.9% 18.1% 15.3% 2.8% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.4 3.3%
12-6 15.2% 11.6% 11.0% 0.6% 12.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 13.5 0.7%
11-7 14.8% 6.9% 6.7% 0.2% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 13.8 0.2%
10-8 12.3% 4.1% 4.0% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 11.8 0.1%
9-9 9.5% 2.5% 2.5% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2
8-10 6.0% 2.3% 2.3% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9
7-11 3.7% 0.9% 0.9% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.7
6-12 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 15.5% 10.9% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 4.2 5.4 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 84.5 5.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 9.1 24.2 15.2 33.3 12.1 6.1