Rhode Island
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#91
Expected Predictive Rating+10.7#56
Pace76.1#35
Improvement-2.0#308

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#74
First Shot+6.1#38
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#296
Layup/Dunks+1.6#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows+5.0#5
Improvement-1.5#297

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#112
First Shot+3.5#78
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#291
Layups/Dunks-1.6#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#13
Freethrows-0.1#200
Improvement-0.5#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.0% 12.1% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 2.8% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 11.4
.500 or above 97.3% 98.8% 95.2%
.500 or above in Conference 81.0% 84.7% 76.1%
Conference Champion 11.4% 13.8% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.7% 1.5%
First Four1.2% 1.7% 0.5%
First Round9.4% 11.3% 7.0%
Second Round2.9% 3.7% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.1% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Providence (Home) - 56.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 43 - 5
Quad 310 - 413 - 9
Quad 49 - 122 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 283   Fairfield W 96-58 92%     1 - 0 +28.6 +10.9 +14.8
  Nov 08, 2024 326   Holy Cross W 91-77 94%     2 - 0 +1.7 +5.3 -4.2
  Nov 20, 2024 231   Lafayette W 86-72 88%     3 - 0 +7.2 +9.4 -2.7
  Nov 24, 2024 127   College of Charleston W 91-53 75%     4 - 0 +36.7 +11.4 +22.9
  Nov 27, 2024 298   Detroit Mercy W 81-75 89%     5 - 0 -1.2 +4.8 -6.0
  Nov 28, 2024 161   Texas Arlington W 83-78 72%     6 - 0 +4.7 +4.4 +0.1
  Dec 02, 2024 107   Yale W 84-78 68%     7 - 0 +7.0 +2.9 +3.7
  Dec 07, 2024 79   Providence W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 10, 2024 164   @ Brown W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 15, 2024 240   Central Connecticut St. W 79-66 89%    
  Dec 21, 2024 118   Temple W 80-77 62%    
  Dec 31, 2024 208   @ Duquesne W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 04, 2025 82   George Mason W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 08, 2025 151   George Washington W 84-76 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 186   @ Richmond W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 15, 2025 86   @ Loyola Chicago L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 134   Davidson W 81-74 75%    
  Jan 21, 2025 55   Virginia Commonwealth L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 25, 2025 143   @ La Salle W 81-79 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 171   Massachusetts W 83-73 81%    
  Feb 05, 2025 201   @ Fordham W 79-74 67%    
  Feb 08, 2025 82   @ George Mason L 70-74 37%    
  Feb 12, 2025 88   St. Bonaventure W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 15, 2025 143   La Salle W 84-76 76%    
  Feb 22, 2025 137   @ Saint Louis W 82-81 55%    
  Feb 26, 2025 46   Dayton L 76-78 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 171   @ Massachusetts W 80-76 63%    
  Mar 05, 2025 101   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-78 43%    
  Mar 08, 2025 201   Fordham W 82-71 83%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 3.1 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 11.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.8 4.5 1.4 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.0 1.4 0.1 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.4 1.9 0.2 11.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.7 2.4 0.2 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 4.0 3.2 0.4 0.0 8.3 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 3.3 0.7 0.0 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 3.0 1.1 0.0 5.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.4 0.2 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.3 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.2 5.2 7.8 10.5 12.8 14.2 13.5 11.8 9.0 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.2% 0.9    0.9 0.0
16-2 89.4% 2.5    1.9 0.5 0.0
15-3 68.0% 3.6    2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-4 34.2% 3.1    0.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 8.0% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.4% 11.4 6.2 3.6 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 88.6% 46.6% 42.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 78.7%
17-1 1.0% 63.9% 27.9% 35.9% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 49.9%
16-2 2.8% 47.0% 27.9% 19.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.5 26.4%
15-3 5.4% 28.7% 21.0% 7.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 3.8 9.8%
14-4 9.0% 19.3% 16.7% 2.6% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.0 7.2 3.1%
13-5 11.8% 13.7% 13.2% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.0 10.1 0.6%
12-6 13.5% 9.4% 9.2% 0.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 12.2 0.2%
11-7 14.2% 6.9% 6.9% 0.1% 11.9 0.2 0.7 0.1 13.2 0.1%
10-8 12.8% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 12.4 0.0%
9-9 10.5% 2.3% 2.3% 12.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.3
8-10 7.8% 1.1% 1.1% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.7
7-11 5.2% 0.5% 0.5% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2
6-12 3.2% 0.8% 0.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-13 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 12.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 14.0 0.0 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.0% 8.3% 1.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 4.3 3.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 90.0 1.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 14.3 33.3 23.8 9.5 19.0