Central Florida
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#65
Expected Predictive Rating+9.2#66
Pace66.8#241
Improvement+1.1#81

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#69
First Shot+2.4#110
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#73
Layup/Dunks-5.6#337
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#56
Freethrows-0.5#218
Improvement-0.1#190

Defense
Total Defense+3.2#81
First Shot+4.5#50
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#261
Layups/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#181
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement+1.2#69
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 2.2% 6.4% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.7% 38.6% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 16.2% 33.5% 12.6%
Average Seed 9.6 9.0 9.8
.500 or above 87.6% 96.1% 85.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.5% 85.2% 73.4%
Conference Champion 5.6% 8.7% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 1.9%
First Four4.9% 6.9% 4.5%
First Round18.2% 34.7% 14.7%
Second Round8.2% 16.9% 6.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.4% 5.6% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Away) - 17.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 6
Quad 23 - 35 - 9
Quad 36 - 211 - 11
Quad 48 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 290   Robert Morris W 69-59 94%     1 - 0 +0.0 -8.0 +8.3
  Nov 13, 2021 120   @ Miami (FL) W 95-89 55%     2 - 0 +12.0 +17.8 -6.1
  Nov 16, 2021 259   Jacksonville W 63-54 92%     3 - 0 +0.6 -2.4 +4.3
  Nov 20, 2021 245   @ Evansville W 75-59 79%     4 - 0 +14.8 +9.9 +6.5
  Nov 27, 2021 35   Oklahoma L 62-65 45%     4 - 1 +5.7 -0.5 +6.0
  Dec 01, 2021 21   @ Auburn L 68-78 18%    
  Dec 05, 2021 344   Bethune-Cookman W 82-58 98%    
  Dec 11, 2021 279   N.C. A&T W 78-61 94%    
  Dec 15, 2021 148   @ Temple W 71-68 62%    
  Dec 18, 2021 26   Florida St. L 67-73 29%    
  Dec 22, 2021 307   North Alabama W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 30, 2021 16   Michigan L 66-71 35%    
  Jan 02, 2022 100   @ SMU L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 05, 2022 148   Temple W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 08, 2022 142   Tulsa W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 12, 2022 24   Memphis L 71-74 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 224   @ South Florida W 63-56 73%    
  Jan 18, 2022 178   @ East Carolina W 73-68 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 163   Tulane W 72-62 81%    
  Jan 26, 2022 53   @ Wichita St. L 64-68 37%    
  Jan 29, 2022 7   Houston L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 03, 2022 224   South Florida W 66-53 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 24   @ Memphis L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 08, 2022 53   Wichita St. W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 17, 2022 7   @ Houston L 59-72 13%    
  Feb 20, 2022 178   East Carolina W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 23, 2022 55   Cincinnati W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 03, 2022 163   @ Tulane W 69-65 64%    
  Mar 06, 2022 142   @ Tulsa W 70-67 59%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.3 4.1 1.6 0.2 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 4.9 7.1 4.7 1.2 0.1 19.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 6.0 7.0 3.0 0.4 18.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.5 5.6 1.7 0.2 14.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 4.7 4.0 1.3 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.8 0.7 0.1 7.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.7 9.7 12.2 14.2 14.2 12.9 9.9 6.6 3.6 1.5 0.4 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
16-2 89.5% 1.4    1.1 0.3
15-3 54.2% 1.9    0.8 1.0 0.1
14-4 20.2% 1.3    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-5 4.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.6% 5.6 2.7 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.5% 94.7% 24.3% 70.4% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 93.0%
15-3 3.6% 86.2% 19.1% 67.1% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.5 83.0%
14-4 6.6% 68.6% 14.0% 54.6% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 63.5%
13-5 9.9% 48.4% 9.8% 38.6% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.7 0.6 0.0 5.1 42.8%
12-6 12.9% 26.0% 6.1% 19.9% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.0 9.6 21.2%
11-7 14.2% 13.3% 4.9% 8.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.1 12.3 8.8%
10-8 14.2% 5.4% 3.0% 2.3% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 13.4 2.4%
9-9 12.2% 3.1% 2.4% 0.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 11.8 0.8%
8-10 9.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.1%
7-11 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 6.7
6-12 4.2% 4.2
5-13 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 20.7% 5.4% 15.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.9 3.7 5.6 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 79.3 16.2%