UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +4.0 107
Results Rating +5.9 90
Consistency 0.12 30
Pace 63.7 310
Improvement +1.9 122

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 116 D+ B- B- B- D+
Defense C+ 117 B- B- D B- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 313 C- 55% 253 -3.8 313
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 145 D 33% 325 +0.2 163
Three Pointers 42% 162 C+ 35% 143 +1.0 151
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.8 294 C- -1.7 242
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 260
Second Chance B- 33.9% 80 C+ 1.08 108 B- 0.37 69
Opponents' Steals B 8.0% 48
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 182
Turnovers B- 15.2% 89
Freethrows B+ 0.36 30 D+ 69% 281 B- 0.25 83
Total Offense C+ +2.0 116

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 267 B 8.2% 39
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 134 C- 5.7% 245
Three Pointers C 83% 207 D+ 1.3% 304
Total C 55% 193 B- 4.7% 81


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 348 C- 60% 237 -4.3 51
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 46 C 39% 203 +1.9 325
Three Pointers 45% 69 B+ 30% 27 -0.9 145
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.2 25 B- -2.1 98
1st FG Attempt B- 0.96 67
Second Chance B 26.3% 43 C- 1.07 248 B- 0.28 91
Turnovers from Steals D 7.3% 322
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 240
Turnovers D 14.2% 326
Freethrows B 0.26 53 D 75% 314 B- 0.19 70
Total Defense C+ +2.0 117

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 79 D- 5.9% 350
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 42 B- 6.2% 89
Three Pointers B- 80% 69 C- 0.8% 183
Total B 49% 52 D 3.7% 322

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 310 17.5 227
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 319 0.17 159
Consistency 0.11 80 0.10 32
Improvement +0.0 187 +1.8 90

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 115 109 99
Results Rating Rank 102 97 78
Conference Record 15 - 3 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29% 42% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round29% 42% 0%
Second Round2% 3% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 39 - 39 - 5
Quad 416 - 125 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 156 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 53% -8  0% 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -0 F A- A+ D -5 F C+ D-
 Sat, Nov 15 306 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 92% +8  77% 1 - 1 C +1 B- +5 C- A C- C- -2 B D C-
 Tue, Nov 18 236 East Carolina W 85 - 60 86% +12  89% 2 - 1 A- +17 A- +11 A+ C- C- A- +8 B+ A D
 Fri, Nov 21 249 @Radford W 81 - 73 72% +8  95% 3 - 1 B- +6 B- +4 B A- F+ B- +2 D B+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 286 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 90% -1  37% 4 - 1 C+ +3 C +1 D- D+ B+ B- +3 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 147 Navy W 87 - 57 73% +21  99% 5 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +19 A+ A+ F A +11 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 360 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  79% 6 - 1 B- +5 B- +4 B D+ A+ C+ +2 C A C+
 Wed, Dec 3 190 Marshall W 70 - 69 80% +1  57% 7 - 1 C- -4 D+ -3 F C A+ C -1 A- F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 299 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 81% +3  75% 8 - 1 C +2 C +0 D C C+ B- +2 C C- D
 Sat, Dec 13 159 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 53% -2  38% 9 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 F+ A+ B+ C -1 A F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 183 Howard L 66 - 67 80% -4  28% 9 - 2 D+ -6 D -6 F A C- C+ +0 B- C C+
 Mon, Dec 29 288 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 79% -1  48% 10 - 2 1 - 0 C+ +5 C+ +2 C D D- B- +2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 212 Drexel W 65 - 53 83% +8  92% 11 - 2 2 - 0 B- +6 C +1 F+ B+ A+ A- +7 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 267 Hampton W 49 - 45 88% +4  81% 12 - 2 3 - 0 C- -5 F -21 F D+ D A+ +17 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 289 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 79% +1  48% 13 - 2 4 - 0 C+ +5 B- +4 F B+ D+ C+ +1 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 225 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 68% -8  26% 14 - 2 5 - 0 C+ +3 B- +5 B- A- C+ C- -2 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 185 Campbell W 78 - 75 80% -4  22% 15 - 2 6 - 0 C- -2 C +2 C F A+ D+ -3 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 140 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 50% -11  0% 15 - 3 6 - 1 C- -3 D- -7 F C- C- B +4 B B D-
 Sat, Jan 24 267 @Hampton W 75 - 67 75% +3  66% 16 - 3 7 - 1 B- +5 A +12 C- A+ B+ D -6 D F F
 Thu, Jan 29 169 @Towson W 82 - 73 57% +3  82% 17 - 3 8 - 1 B +11 A+ +18 A B- A+ D -6 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 140 William & Mary L 78 - 85 71% +2  68% 17 - 4 8 - 2 D -9 C+ +3 A+ D- C+ F -12 B F D+
 Mon, Feb 9 144 @College of Charleston W 76 - 64 50% +9  97% 18 - 4 9 - 2 A- +16 B +6 D- B+ A+ A +11 B B B
 Thu, Feb 12 237 Elon W 65 - 54 86% +9  97% 19 - 4 10 - 2 C+ +3 D -6 C- B- F+ A+ +11 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 103 Hofstra W 70 - 66 60% +0  47% 20 - 4 11 - 2 B- +5 B +6 B D+ A C +0 B+ A- F
 Thu, Feb 19 180 Monmouth W 79 - 69 78% -0  41% 21 - 4 12 - 2 B- +6 C +1 F C- A+ B +5 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 185 @Campbell W 73 - 68 61% -1  26% 22 - 4 13 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 F D- A A- +8 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 288 N.C. A&T W 88 - 65 90% +13  89% 23 - 4 14 - 2 B+ +13 A +14 D+ A+ A+ C+ +1 C- A+ F
 Sun, Mar 1 144 College of Charleston L 76 - 79 72% +5  73% 23 - 5 14 - 3 D+ -5 B +7 C- A+ F F -12 C C- F
 Tue, Mar 3 237 @Elon W 76 - 57 70% +11  99% 24 - 5 15 - 3 A- +17 C +1 A- C+ F A+ +18 A+ F+ B+
Totals 24 - 5 15 - 3 +4 C+ +2 B- C- D+ C+ +2 C+ D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ C- D C+ C- 34% 41% 42% D+ D+ B- C+ B- B- B+ D+ B- C+ C- C B+ B- 30% 25% 45% B+ B- B C- B- D B D B-
1.11 55% 33% 35% -2 -1 0.97 34% 1.1 .37 15% .36 69% .25 1.06 60% 39% 30% -2 -1 0.96 26% 1.1 .28 14% .26 75% .27
Nov
10		 Kent St. C- F A- F F 51% 15% 34% B+ F B A- A- A+ F+ C D- D F A F F 23% 15% 63% B- F A+ F C+ D- C- B C
1.07 42% 44% 19% -15 +2 0.75 35% 1.2 .42 10% .28 72% .20 1.19 82% 29% 43% +13 0 1.27 23% 1.4 .33 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
15		 South Carolina Upstate B- C D- B C- 52% 30% 18% D+ C- A+ F A C- A+ B A+ C- B C+ B- C+ 27% 38% 36% A+ B F C+ D C- F D+ F
1.19 57% 31% 38% -2 0 0.98 50% 1.0 .50 16% .54 75% .41 0.98 50% 35% 31% -5 -3 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 18% .36 72% .26
Nov
18		 East Carolina A- A+ F+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ C C- C- C- A+ C+ A+ A- B C- A C+ 15% 43% 43% A+ B+ A- B+ A D A+ F A-
1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38 0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19
Nov
21		 Radford B- B+ D B+ B- 49% 13% 38% B B A+ D+ A- F+ A- F C- B- B A F D 24% 14% 61% B- D B B B+ B C+ F C-
1.16 65% 33% 39% +6 +2 1.17 45% 1.0 .45 21% .38 57% .22 1.04 50% 29% 40% +2 0 1.06 25% 0.9 .22 20% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 SE Louisiana C A+ B- F D- 26% 28% 47% F+ D- C D- D+ B+ A+ B- A+ B- F D- A+ B- 21% 27% 52% A- B- A- B- B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.12 82% 42% 20% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.0 .31 16% .57 77% .44 0.91 91% 43% 15% -7 -2 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 11% .22 50% .11
Nov
28		 Navy A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 26% 35% 39% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A B- A A A- A A+ A+ 39% 19% 43% D A+ C- A+ A+ D- A+ F A
1.34 58% 56% 44% +13 -3 1.22 57% 1.4 .79 23% .34 76% .26 0.87 48% 30% 22% -13 0 0.76 32% 0.6 .18 15% .20 91% .18
Nov
29		 Gardner-Webb B- A- D+ A+ B+ 32% 21% 47% D- B F A+ D+ A+ F C F C+ B A+ F+ C- 35% 14% 51% C+ C B- A+ A C+ B- F C
1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13 0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18
Dec
3		 Marshall D+ B+ F F+ F 21% 38% 40% F F A- F C A+ A+ B- A+ C F C- A+ B 17% 42% 42% A+ A- C F F C+ A F C+
1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51 1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18
Dec
6		 Louisiana C F+ F B+ D- 47% 12% 42% B- D C+ C- C C+ A D+ B+ B- B- C B- C+ 27% 25% 48% D- C B+ F C- D C F D+
1.10 50% 20% 39% -3 +2 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 17% .45 71% .32 0.99 50% 38% 32% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 14% .24 77% .18
Dec
13		 Valparaiso B+ D+ C- F F 35% 20% 46% C F+ A+ C- A+ B+ A+ F A+ C F A+ A+ A 28% 34% 38% B A F B- F+ F F+ D- F
1.15 56% 33% 24% -9 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35 1.10 71% 24% 21% -9 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31
Dec
20		 Howard D C- D- F F 36% 28% 36% F F B+ B+ A C- B C B- C+ C A+ F C- 33% 39% 27% A+ B- C- C C C+ A+ F A-
0.98 56% 29% 17% -13 -1 0.74 39% 1.3 .49 19% .37 70% .26 1.00 53% 25% 43% -3 -3 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 21% .23 83% .19
Dec
29		 N.C. A&T C+ F C A+ C- 41% 20% 39% C+ C C F D D- A+ A A+ B- B+ F B C 32% 33% 35% B C+ A+ F A+ F C B C+
1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43 1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25
Dec
31		 Drexel C F A F D- 30% 37% 33% F F+ C A+ B+ A+ A+ D A+ A- B F+ A+ A+ 18% 25% 57% A+ A+ F F+ F D+ F B+ F
1.08 38% 50% 21% -8 -3 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 10% .52 71% .37 0.88 50% 45% 12% -18 -2 0.61 38% 1.1 .40 18% .39 63% .24
Jan
3		 Hampton F B- C- F F 29% 33% 38% F F C- D- D+ D B F F A+ B C A+ A+ 33% 35% 33% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+
0.82 67% 36% 19% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.9 .26 18% .43 38% .16 0.75 50% 35% 13% -14 -2 0.69 22% 0.7 .15 13% .17 78% .14
Jan
8		 Northeastern B- F F B+ F 50% 13% 38% B+ F B+ B- B+ D+ A+ A+ A+ C+ D A+ B- C 51% 15% 35% F+ C- B+ D+ B- F F A+ D+
1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50 1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21
Jan
10		 Stony Brook B- D F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% C+ B- C- A+ A- C+ D+ F F C- A F A+ C+ 30% 21% 49% B B- A- F F D A+ F A+
1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13 1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09
Jan
17		 Campbell C B- D+ C- C- 54% 23% 23% B- C D+ F F A+ A+ A A+ D+ F F B- F 43% 15% 41% B- F B- A+ A+ B+ F C+ F+
1.15 64% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.08 29% 0.7 .20 10% .41 80% .33 1.11 70% 57% 32% +7 +1 1.17 32% 0.5 .16 21% .45 71% .32
Jan
22		 William & Mary D- F F D F 27% 12% 61% C- F C+ D- C- C- A+ D A+ B C- F A B 37% 6% 58% C- B A+ F B D- C B- C+
0.96 38% 17% 30% -12 0 0.80 32% 0.9 .30 19% .56 67% .38 1.06 63% 67% 27% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 14% .35 73% .26
Jan
24		 Hampton A A- D+ F C 44% 29% 27% D C- B- A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A+ D F D C+ F+ 24% 31% 45% A- D C+ F F F A+ A+ A+
1.25 72% 33% 27% +2 -1 1.05 33% 1.4 .47 13% .52 70% .37 1.12 67% 40% 32% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.3 .39 13% .15 63% .10
Jan
29		 Towson A+ F A+ A+ A+ 24% 24% 52% D- A C+ B+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ D B- F A+ F 37% 35% 27% B- F+ A+ C+ A+ F F C- F
1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30 1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 William & Mary C+ A B+ A+ A+ 27% 25% 47% F A+ F+ C- D- C+ C F D F A A+ F B 43% 17% 40% B B F F F D+ F+ C F+
1.16 71% 46% 46% +14 -1 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 18% .29 56% .16 1.26 50% 13% 42% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 15% .42 75% .31
Feb
9		 College of Charleston B A+ F B- D+ 23% 37% 40% F D- C- A+ B+ A+ B C B A C+ F A+ B- 27% 33% 40% A+ B A F B B F+ F F
1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19 0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35
Feb
12		 Elon D F D A C- 25% 20% 55% D C- D A+ B- F+ D F F A+ B+ B A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% A+ A+ B A- A- D- B A B+
1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12 0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17
Feb
14		 Hofstra B A B- D+ A- 30% 38% 33% F B C D- D+ A A+ F A+ C F A+ C- B- 17% 38% 46% A+ B+ A- B+ A- F F C+ F
1.15 67% 40% 31% +2 -3 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 10% .65 61% .40 1.08 75% 22% 36% -1 -4 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 11% .43 74% .31
Feb
19		 Monmouth C F F B+ F 45% 20% 35% C+ F F+ A C- A+ A+ A A+ B F A- B D 22% 43% 35% A+ C C+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.10 48% 0% 39% -10 +1 0.84 24% 1.2 .30 11% .55 80% .44 0.96 90% 30% 31% +2 -4 0.98 30% 0.5 .15 25% .41 86% .35
Feb
21		 Campbell C- F F C- F 37% 22% 41% C- F A- F D- A A+ F A+ A- B+ A+ F A- 56% 17% 27% C- B+ A+ F+ A+ F B+ F B-
1.07 47% 18% 33% -9 0 0.84 39% 0.7 .28 13% .56 61% .34 0.99 48% 0% 43% -9 +2 0.88 18% 1.2 .21 10% .31 79% .24
Feb
26		 N.C. A&T A B+ F A- C- 27% 36% 36% F D+ A A+ A+ A+ F B- D- C+ F D A- D 21% 33% 46% A C- A+ B- A+ F A- B+ A
1.36 67% 30% 40% +3 -3 1.02 39% 1.5 .58 6% .23 71% .16 1.01 80% 44% 27% +2 -3 1.00 18% 1.0 .18 14% .29 69% .20
Mar
1		 College of Charleston B D F B- C 22% 22% 56% D+ C- A+ B- A+ F A C- A F A+ C F C- 23% 29% 48% A C C+ D C- F F C F
1.18 55% 27% 36% -2 -1 0.96 54% 1.0 .56 23% .32 69% .22 1.23 45% 36% 39% 0 -2 0.98 28% 1.2 .33 9% .48 75% .36
Mar
3		 Elon C A+ D A A- 29% 12% 59% C+ A- C B- C+ F F F F A+ A+ D A+ A+ 38% 11% 51% C+ A+ C+ F F+ B+ D+ F F
1.14 71% 33% 41% +10 0 1.22 33% 1.2 .39 22% .17 33% .06 0.85 33% 40% 17% -23 +1 0.60 31% 1.3 .41 19% .33 89% .30



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 29.3% 29.3% 12.7 0.2 11.9 14.8 2.5 0.0 70.7
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 12.7 70.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 29.3% 100.0% 12.7 0.6 40.5 50.5 8.4 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 21.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.5%
Lose Out 30.6%