IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+2.6	#117
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#165

Pace	64.5	#299
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.3	#101

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+0.3	#140

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.2%	0.4%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	22.0%	28.9%	16.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.2%	0.6%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.8	12.5	13.1

.500 or above	89.7%	95.7%	85.2%
.500 or above in Conference	88.1%	93.2%	84.1%
Conference Champion	30.7%	38.1%	25.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.4%	0.7%

First Four	0.3%	0.5%	0.1%
First Round	21.8%	28.7%	16.6%
Second Round	2.8%	4.8%	1.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.4%	0.8%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.1%	0.3%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Away) - 43.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 3	6 - 5	6 - 6
Quad 4	15 - 3	22 - 10

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2025	135	@ Kent St.	L	70-71	43%
Nov 15, 2025	318	South Carolina Upstate	W	81-67	90%
Nov 18, 2025	161	East Carolina	W	72-66	73%
Nov 21, 2025	156	@ Radford	W	68-67	51%
Nov 26, 2025	259	SE Louisiana	W	75-64	82%
Nov 28, 2025	153	Navy	W	73-67	69%
Nov 29, 2025	324	Gardner-Webb	W	78-64	89%
Dec 03, 2025	167	Marshall	W	74-67	72%
Dec 06, 2025	248	@ Louisiana	W	71-67	64%
Dec 13, 2025	283	@ Valparaiso	W	73-67	68%
Dec 20, 2025	327	Howard	W	79-65	90%
Dec 29, 2025	349	@ N.C. A&T	W	77-67	81%
Dec 31, 2025	227	Drexel	W	69-60	79%
Jan 03, 2026	224	Hampton	W	76-67	79%
Jan 08, 2026	238	@ Northeastern	W	72-68	63%
Jan 10, 2026	282	@ Stony Brook	W	71-65	68%
Jan 17, 2026	211	Campbell	W	73-65	75%
Jan 22, 2026	222	@ William & Mary	W	77-74	60%
Jan 24, 2026	224	@ Hampton	W	73-70	60%
Jan 29, 2026	124	@ Towson	L	65-67	42%
Feb 05, 2026	222	William & Mary	W	80-71	77%
Feb 09, 2026	130	@ College of Charleston	L	72-74	45%
Feb 12, 2026	228	Elon	W	72-63	79%
Feb 14, 2026	164	Hofstra	W	68-62	69%
Feb 19, 2026	200	Monmouth	W	74-66	75%
Feb 21, 2026	211	@ Campbell	W	70-68	56%
Feb 26, 2026	349	N.C. A&T	W	80-64	91%
Feb 28, 2026	130	College of Charleston	W	75-71	63%
Mar 03, 2026	228	@ Elon	W	69-66	61%
Projected Record						20 - 9	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0		0.5	2.7	7.0	6.9	6.5	5.4	1.6		30.7	1st
2nd												0.5	3.4	6.2	5.4	2.9	0.6	0.0			19.0	2nd
3rd											0.5	2.5	5.3	3.5	0.8	0.1					12.7	3rd
4th										0.2	1.9	5.3	2.5	0.4							10.1	4th
5th									0.1	1.0	3.1	2.3	0.3								6.8	5th
6th								0.0	0.4	2.6	2.2	0.4	0.0								5.7	6th
7th								0.2	1.3	2.3	0.5										4.2	7th
8th							0.1	0.9	1.9	0.7	0.1										3.7	8th
9th						0.1	0.4	1.3	0.7	0.1											2.5	9th
10th					0.0	0.3	0.6	0.7													1.7	10th
11th					0.3	0.7	0.5	0.2													1.6	11th
12th				0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1														1.0	12th
13th		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0																0.3	13th

Total		0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	1.7	3.3	4.3	6.7	8.3	10.9	12.0	12.8	13.2	9.9	7.1	5.5	1.6			Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	1.6		1.6
17-1	99.3%	5.4		5.3	0.2
16-2	90.9%	6.5		5.4	1.1	0.0
15-3	70.1%	6.9		4.7	1.9	0.2
14-4	52.9%	7.0		3.1	3.0	0.9
13-5	21.0%	2.7		0.6	1.4	0.6	0.0
12-6	4.1%	0.5		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.0
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.5%	0.0								0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	30.7%	30.7		20.8	7.7	1.9	0.2	0.0		0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	1.6%		62.8%	55.8%	7.0%	10.3							0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.1	0.2				0.6		15.7%
17-1	5.5%		53.4%	52.0%	1.4%	11.4							0.0	0.0		0.1	0.1	1.1	1.4	0.2				2.5		2.9%
16-2	7.1%		47.9%	47.9%		12.2											0.0	0.4	2.1	0.8	0.1			3.7
15-3	9.9%		36.4%	36.4%		12.7												0.2	1.6	1.1	0.6	0.1		6.3
14-4	13.2%		27.9%	27.9%		13.0													0.9	2.0	0.8			9.5
13-5	12.8%		25.2%	25.2%		13.5													0.4	1.3	1.2	0.3		9.6
12-6	12.0%		15.5%	15.5%		14.0													0.0	0.5	0.8	0.5	0.0	10.2
11-7	10.9%		11.8%	11.8%		14.4														0.2	0.5	0.4	0.2	9.6
10-8	8.3%		6.9%	6.9%		14.8														0.0	0.2	0.2	0.2	7.7
9-9	6.7%		3.4%	3.4%		14.8														0.0	0.1		0.1	6.5
8-10	4.3%		1.8%	1.8%		15.5																0.0	0.0	4.2
7-11	3.3%		2.3%	2.3%		15.5																0.0	0.0	3.2
6-12	1.7%																							1.7
5-13	1.4%																							1.4
4-14	0.7%																							0.7
3-15	0.3%																							0.3
2-16	0.1%																							0.1
1-17	0.0%																							0.0
0-18

Total	100%		22.0%	21.8%	0.2%	12.8							0.2	0.1	0.0	0.2	0.2	2.1	6.5	6.3	4.3	1.6	0.5	78.0		0.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	8.6						40.6			19.8		39.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	66.7%	8.5						33.3					33.3