UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#120
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#123
Pace62.5#344
Improvement-1.8#293

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#106
First Shot-1.7#219
After Offensive Rebound+4.5#7
Layup/Dunks-1.6#240
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#107
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#270
Freethrows+1.2#111
Improvement-0.9#245

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#160
First Shot+0.8#143
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#250
Layups/Dunks+3.8#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#307
Freethrows+3.0#29
Improvement-0.9#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 19.5% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.4
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 91.2% 94.3% 81.3%
Conference Champion 24.4% 28.1% 12.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round18.3% 19.5% 14.4%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Away) - 76.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 36 - 47 - 6
Quad 415 - 322 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 124 @Kent St. L 77-86 40%     0 - 1 -3.6 +3.6 -7.0
  Sat, Nov 15 264 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 86%     1 - 1 +4.3 +7.5 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 18 271 East Carolina W 85-60 86%     2 - 1 +16.1 +14.3 +2.9
  Fri, Nov 21 261 @Radford W 81-73 70%     3 - 1 +5.5 +5.2 +0.3
  Wed, Nov 26 266 SE Louisiana W 70-57 86%     4 - 1 +4.3 +3.6 +2.3
  Fri, Nov 28 203 Navy W 87-57 79%     5 - 1 +24.3 +19.3 +7.2
  Sat, Nov 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 97%     6 - 1 +7.5 +7.5 +0.3
  Wed, Dec 3 161 Marshall W 70-69 72%     7 - 1 -2.1 +4.3 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 6 314 @Louisiana W 70-63 80%     8 - 1 +1.1 +4.9 -3.1
  Sat, Dec 13 219 @Valparaiso W 73-70 64%     9 - 1 +2.3 +8.6 -6.1
  Sat, Dec 20 265 Howard L 66-67 86%     9 - 2 -9.7 -5.9 -3.8
  Mon, Dec 29 301 @N.C. A&T W 76-68 76%    
  Wed, Dec 31 274 Drexel W 74-62 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 238 Hampton W 74-64 83%    
  Thu, Jan 8 205 @Northeastern W 73-70 60%    
  Sat, Jan 10 246 @Stony Brook W 70-65 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 225 Campbell W 79-69 82%    
  Thu, Jan 22 118 @William & Mary L 76-79 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 238 @Hampton W 71-67 66%    
  Thu, Jan 29 128 @Towson L 65-67 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 118 William & Mary W 79-76 60%    
  Mon, Feb 9 169 @College of Charleston W 72-71 52%    
  Thu, Feb 12 166 Elon W 77-71 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 110 Hofstra W 70-68 58%    
  Thu, Feb 19 224 Monmouth W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 225 @Campbell W 76-72 63%    
  Thu, Feb 26 301 N.C. A&T W 79-65 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 169 College of Charleston W 75-69 72%    
  Tue, Mar 3 166 @Elon W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.4 6.4 7.0 4.7 1.8 0.4 24.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.7 7.6 5.2 1.7 0.2 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.3 7.1 3.8 0.8 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 5.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.6 2.4 0.3 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.3 7.3 10.9 13.6 15.9 15.3 12.5 8.7 4.9 1.8 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.0
16-2 96.0% 4.7    4.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 79.9% 7.0    4.8 2.0 0.2
14-4 51.4% 6.4    3.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.2% 3.4    0.9 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 24.4% 24.4 15.0 7.0 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 44.6% 44.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 42.8% 42.8% 11.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.0
16-2 4.9% 34.8% 34.8% 12.3 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.0 3.2
15-3 8.7% 31.9% 31.9% 12.6 0.0 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.9
14-4 12.5% 26.1% 26.1% 12.9 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.2
13-5 15.3% 22.5% 22.5% 13.2 0.4 2.1 0.9 0.0 11.9
12-6 15.9% 17.9% 17.9% 13.4 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.1 13.1
11-7 13.6% 12.5% 12.5% 13.7 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.2 11.9
10-8 10.9% 8.1% 8.1% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 10.0
9-9 7.3% 5.7% 5.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.9
8-10 4.3% 4.5% 4.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.1
7-11 2.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5
6-12 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.5% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.5 4.4 0.8 0.1 81.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.0 6.0 10.0 62.0 22.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%