UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.5 #123
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 #106
Pace 63.0 #333
Improvement -2.0 #292

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #136 D C B B- D
Defense #116 B A B- D- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #298 1.12 #225 -3.2 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #91 0.71 #234 +1.2 #112
Three Pointers 41% #182 0.92 #282 -1.9 #250
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #286 -4.0 #285
Freethrows 18.1 #144 71% #223 12.9 #164
Second Chance 37.4% #28 1.03 #202 0.38 #65
Turnovers 15.4% #99
Total Offense +1.0 #136

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #356 1.26 #295 +4.9 #38
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #43 0.73 #156 -1.9 #309
Three Pointers 46% #55 0.89 #46 +0.2 #177
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #84 +3.2 #84
Freethrows 11.9 #10 75% #293 9.0 #347
Second Chance 28.2% #97 1.03 #157 0.29 #115
Turnovers 13.9% #325
Total Defense +1.6 #116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #292 -3.0% #16
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #270 -3.4% #118
Possession Length 19.1 #338 17.3 #202
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #351 0.19 #223
Improvement -4.4 #358 +2.4 #45

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.6% 20.4% 15.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.6% 97.9% 91.9%
Conference Champion 30.3% 37.3% 19.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.6% 20.4% 15.8%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northeastern (Away) - 61.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 37 - 58 - 6
Quad 415 - 223 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 139 @Kent St. L 77-86 43%     -8.5   0 - 1 -4.7 +2.4 -6.8
  Sat, Nov 15 285 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 88%     8.2   1 - 1 +3.0 +6.5 -1.7
  Tue, Nov 18 273 East Carolina W 85-60 86%     12.2   2 - 1 +15.8 +14.0 +3.0
  Fri, Nov 21 243 @Radford W 81-73 66%     8.3   3 - 1 +6.2 +6.1 +0.2
  Wed, Nov 26 257 SE Louisiana W 70-57 85%     -1.4   4 - 1 +4.3 +4.0 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 28 204 Navy W 87-57 78%     21.4   5 - 1 +24.3 +19.1 +7.5
  Sat, Nov 29 360 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 96%     12.3   6 - 1 +7.7 +6.8 +1.1
  Wed, Dec 3 163 Marshall W 70-69 72%     1.2   7 - 1 -2.5 +3.3 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 315 @Louisiana W 70-63 79%     2.9   8 - 1 +1.2 +4.5 -2.6
  Sat, Dec 13 205 @Valparaiso W 73-70 58%     -2.0   9 - 1 +3.3 +9.9 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 20 277 Howard L 66-67 87%     -4.0   9 - 2 -10.5 -5.3 -5.2
  Mon, Dec 29 305 @N.C. A&T W 87-78 77%     -0.6   10 - 2 1 - 0 +3.8 +4.6 -1.4
  Wed, Dec 31 263 Drexel W 65-53 86%     8.1   11 - 2 2 - 0 +3.1 -1.4 +6.5
  Sat, Jan 3 237 Hampton W 49-45 83%     3.9   12 - 2 3 - 0 -3.5 -17.0 +14.2
  Thu, Jan 8 223 @Northeastern W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Jan 10 258 @Stony Brook W 69-64 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 209 Campbell W 77-69 79%    
  Thu, Jan 22 119 @William & Mary L 74-77 37%    
  Sat, Jan 24 237 @Hampton W 68-64 65%    
  Thu, Jan 29 164 @Towson W 64-63 50%    
  Thu, Feb 5 119 William & Mary W 77-74 60%    
  Mon, Feb 9 149 @College of Charleston L 70-71 47%    
  Thu, Feb 12 167 Elon W 77-71 71%    
  Sat, Feb 14 113 Hofstra W 69-67 56%    
  Thu, Feb 19 212 Monmouth W 73-64 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 209 @Campbell W 74-72 58%    
  Thu, Feb 26 305 N.C. A&T W 79-65 89%    
  Sat, Feb 28 149 College of Charleston W 73-68 69%    
  Tue, Mar 3 167 @Elon W 75-74 51%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.5 8.5 9.0 5.1 1.8 0.4 30.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 5.1 8.6 5.7 1.6 0.2 22.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.4 7.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 16.7 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 6.0 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 4.0 2.5 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.3 2.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.6 0.3 2.9 7th
8th 0.3 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.6 9.5 14.0 16.4 17.3 14.8 10.6 5.2 1.8 0.4 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.1
16-2 97.1% 5.1    4.5 0.5 0.0
15-3 84.8% 9.0    6.6 2.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 57.3% 8.5    4.4 3.3 0.7 0.0
13-5 26.2% 4.5    1.1 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 30.3% 30.3 18.8 8.6 2.2 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 47.7% 47.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 32.5% 32.5% 12.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
16-2 5.2% 33.1% 33.1% 12.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.1 3.5
15-3 10.6% 30.0% 30.0% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.3 7.4
14-4 14.8% 25.5% 25.5% 13.0 0.8 2.3 0.6 0.0 11.0
13-5 17.3% 22.1% 22.1% 13.2 0.0 0.4 2.2 1.1 0.0 13.5
12-6 16.4% 16.1% 16.1% 13.5 0.1 1.3 1.1 0.1 13.8
11-7 14.0% 10.2% 10.2% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 12.6
10-8 9.5% 8.5% 8.5% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 8.7
9-9 5.6% 5.4% 5.4% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.3
8-10 2.9% 4.1% 4.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
7-11 1.1% 1.4% 1.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.3 3.8 9.3 4.6 0.7 0.0 81.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.4 2.4 59.5 33.3 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%