UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.6 #119
Expected Predictive Rating +4.9 #93
Pace 63.9 #304
Improvement -1.8 #263

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #108 C- B- B- B- D+
Defense #155 C+ C+ D- B B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.09 #264 -3.5 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #102 0.71 #252 +0.8 #127
Three Pointers 41% #182 1.02 #176 +0.2 #172
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #253 -2.5 #253
Freethrows 0.36 #37 71% #237 0.25 #71
Second Chance 34.6% #74 1.08 #104 0.37 #63
Turnovers 15.2% #77
Total Offense +2.4 #108

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #342 1.23 #282 +3.3 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #72 0.82 #285 -2.1 #329
Three Pointers 45% #63 0.90 #44 +0.5 #158
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #127 +1.7 #127
Freethrows 0.25 #29 74% #258 0.18 #36
Second Chance 27.2% #65 1.10 #287 0.30 #146
Turnovers 13.7% #339
Total Defense +0.3 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.5% #288 -1.9% #41
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.5% #231 -1.4% #156
Possession Length 18.7 #320 17.4 #218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #323 0.18 #207
Improvement -0.7 #225 -1.1 #251

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 26.5% 21.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 65.8% 86.3% 47.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.8% 26.5% 21.3%
Second Round1.6% 1.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 47.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 38 - 49 - 6
Quad 415 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 139 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 43% -8  0 - 1 -5 +4 F A- A+ -8 F B- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 301 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 90% +8  1 - 1 +2 +8 D+ A+ C -4 B D C-
 Tue, Nov 18 249 East Carolina W 85 - 60 84% +12  2 - 1 +17 +14 A+ C C +4 B B+ D-
 Fri, Nov 21 232 @Radford W 81 - 73 64% +8  3 - 1 +7 +6 B B+ D- +1 D+ B B-
 Wed, Nov 26 279 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 87% -1  4 - 1 +3 +4 D- D+ A- +1 B- B F
 Fri, Nov 28 174 Navy W 87 - 57 74% +21  5 - 1 +26 +22 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 363 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  6 - 1 +4 +6 B- D+ A -1 D+ A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 156 Marshall W 70 - 69 71% +1  7 - 1 -2 +4 F B- A+ -5 B+ F+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 295 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 76% +3  8 - 1 +2 +4 D C C -1 C C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 159 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 49% -2  9 - 1 +6 +11 F+ A+ A- -5 A- F F
 Sat, Dec 20 254 Howard L 66 - 67 84% -4  9 - 2 -9 -5 F A- C -5 C C C
 Mon, Dec 29 286 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 74% -1  10 - 2 1 - 0 +5 +6 C C- D+ -1 C A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 221 Drexel W 65 - 53 80% +8  11 - 2 2 - 0 +6 +3 F+ B+ A+ +5 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 3 247 Hampton W 49 - 45 84% +4  12 - 2 3 - 0 -4 -17 F C- C- +14 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 262 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 70% +1  13 - 2 4 - 0 +6 +7 F B- C -1 C C+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 218 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 61% -8  14 - 2 5 - 0 +4 +7 C+ A C -3 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 198 Campbell W 78 - 75 78% -4  15 - 2 6 - 0 -2 +3 C- F A+ -5 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 141 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 44% -11  15 - 3 6 - 1 -3 -4 F C C +2 B- B F+
 Sat, Jan 24 247 @Hampton W 75 - 67 67% +3  16 - 3 7 - 1 +6 +16 C A+ A- -9 D F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 158 @Towson W 82 - 73 49% +3  17 - 3 8 - 1 +12 +20 A- B- A+ -8 F+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 141 William & Mary L 78 - 85 67% +2  17 - 4 8 - 2 -9 +6 A+ D B- -15 B F D-
 Mon, Feb 9 151 @College of Charleston L 73 - 74 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 202 Elon W 79 - 71 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 122 Hofstra W 72 - 69 62%
 Thu, Feb 19 207 Monmouth W 73 - 65 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 198 @Campbell W 78 - 76 57%
 Thu, Feb 26 286 N.C. A&T W 81 - 68 88%
 Sat, Feb 28 151 College of Charleston W 76 - 71 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 202 @Elon W 76 - 74 58%
Totals 22 - 7 13 - 5 +3 +2 C- B- B- +0 C+ C+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.6 15.4 24.1 17.2 5.3 65.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 10.9 9.6 2.2 25.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 1.7 5.1 3rd
4th 1.1 1.3 0.1 2.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 7.2 16.2 25.0 26.3 17.2 5.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 5.3    5.3
15-3 100.0% 17.2    16.7 0.6
14-4 91.6% 24.1    18.9 5.2
13-5 61.7% 15.4    7.0 7.4 1.0 0.0
12-6 22.1% 3.6    0.4 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.0
11-7 2.1% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 65.8% 65.8 48.2 14.8 2.4 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 5.3% 36.1% 36.1% 12.2 0.1 1.3 0.5 3.4
15-3 17.2% 29.1% 29.1% 12.8 0.0 1.6 3.0 0.4 12.2
14-4 26.3% 26.6% 26.6% 13.0 1.2 4.5 1.3 0.0 19.3
13-5 25.0% 22.4% 22.4% 13.3 0.5 3.0 2.1 0.1 19.4
12-6 16.2% 18.4% 18.4% 13.5 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.1 13.2
11-7 7.2% 14.6% 14.6% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 6.2
10-8 2.3% 10.0% 10.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1
9-9 0.4% 5.1% 5.1% 14.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 13.1 76.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 12.2 5.8 68.4 25.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%