UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +4.0 107
Results Rating +6.9 84
Consistency 0.12 27
Pace 63.7 310
Improvement +1.8 117

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C+ 117 D+ B- B B D
Defense C+ 120 B- B- D B B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 310 D+ 55% 256 -3.7 311
2 Pt. Jumpers 42% 132 D 33% 323 +0.5 147
Three Pointers 41% 173 C+ 34% 155 +0.4 163
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -0.9 298 C- -1.9 246
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 271
Second Chance B- 33.6% 87 C+ 1.08 106 B- 0.36 77
Opponents' Steals B+ 7.7% 29
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 120
Turnovers B 14.5% 50
Freethrows B+ 0.36 20 D+ 70% 266 B 0.25 63
Total Offense C+ +2.1 117

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 265 B 8.4% 46
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 140 C 5.2% 199
Three Pointers C 83% 207 D+ 1.3% 295
Total C- 54% 207 B- 4.7% 75

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 348 D+ 62% 288 -3.7 64
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 46 C 38% 199 +2.0 325
Three Pointers 44% 80 B+ 30% 31 -0.9 147
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.2 27 C+ -1.4 126
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 93
Second Chance B 26.1% 44 C- 1.05 219 B- 0.27 73
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.1% 331
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 221
Turnovers D 14.1% 329
Freethrows B 0.25 36 D+ 74% 292 B 0.19 57
Total Defense C+ +1.9 120

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 88 D- 6.0% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 37 C+ 6.3% 92
Three Pointers B- 80% 64 C 0.8% 172
Total B 49% 50 D 3.8% 321

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.6 311 17.5 218
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 312 0.16 160
Consistency 0.11 121 0.09 10
Improvement -0.2 196 +2.0 78

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 122 108 97
Results Rating Rank 100 87 59
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 16 - 2
Conference Finish 1 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29% 31% 26%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 100%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round29% 31% 26%
Second Round2% 3% 1%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 71.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 310 - 310 - 4
Quad 416 - 126 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 152 @Kent St. L 77 - 86 52% -8  0% 0 - 1 D+ -6 C +0 F A- A+ D -5 F B- D-
 Sat, Nov 15 301 South Carolina Upstate W 73 - 60 91% +8  77% 1 - 1 C+ +2 B- +5 D+ A C- C -1 B D C
 Tue, Nov 18 248 East Carolina W 85 - 60 86% +12  89% 2 - 1 A- +17 A- +11 A+ C C- A- +7 B A- D
 Fri, Nov 21 228 @Radford W 81 - 73 68% +8  95% 3 - 1 B- +7 B- +5 B A- F+ B- +3 D+ B+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 290 SE Louisiana W 70 - 57 91% -1  37% 4 - 1 C+ +2 C +1 D- D+ A- B- +3 B- B+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 145 Navy W 87 - 57 72% +21  99% 5 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +20 A+ A+ F A +11 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Nov 29 362 Gardner-Webb W 88 - 62 98% +12  79% 6 - 1 C+ +5 C+ +3 B- D+ A B- +2 C A C+
 Wed, Dec 3 173 Marshall W 70 - 69 77% +1  57% 7 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 F C A+ C -1 A- F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 297 @Louisiana W 70 - 63 80% +3  75% 8 - 1 C+ +2 C +0 D C C+ B- +2 C+ C- D-
 Sat, Dec 13 151 @Valparaiso W 73 - 70 52% -2  38% 9 - 1 B- +6 B+ +8 F+ A+ B+ C -1 A F+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 202 Howard L 66 - 67 81% -4  28% 9 - 2 D+ -6 D -6 F A C C -1 C+ C- C+
 Mon, Dec 29 276 @N.C. A&T W 87 - 78 76% -1  48% 10 - 2 1 - 0 B- +6 C+ +3 C D D- B- +2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 214 Drexel W 65 - 53 83% +8  92% 11 - 2 2 - 0 B- +6 C +0 F+ B A+ A- +8 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 266 Hampton W 49 - 45 88% +4  81% 12 - 2 3 - 0 D+ -5 F -20 F D+ D A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 288 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 79% +1  48% 13 - 2 4 - 0 C+ +5 B- +4 F B+ C- C -0 C- B- F
 Sat, Jan 10 219 @Stony Brook W 75 - 71 66% -8  26% 14 - 2 5 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 B- A- C+ C -1 B- F D
 Sat, Jan 17 196 Campbell W 78 - 75 81% -4  22% 15 - 2 6 - 0 C- -2 C+ +2 C F A+ D+ -4 F A+ B+
 Thu, Jan 22 139 @William & Mary L 70 - 77 49% -11  0% 15 - 3 6 - 1 C- -3 D- -6 F C- C- B +4 B B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 266 @Hampton W 75 - 67 75% +3  66% 16 - 3 7 - 1 B- +5 A +13 C- A+ B+ D -6 D F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 175 @Towson W 82 - 73 58% +3  82% 17 - 3 8 - 1 B +11 A+ +18 A B- A+ D- -6 F A+ F
 Thu, Feb 5 139 William & Mary L 78 - 85 71% +2  68% 17 - 4 8 - 2 D -9 B- +4 A+ D- B- F -13 B F D
 Mon, Feb 9 146 @College of Charleston W 76 - 64 51% +9  97% 18 - 4 9 - 2 A- +16 B +6 D A- A+ A +10 B B B
 Thu, Feb 12 225 Elon W 65 - 54 84% +9  97% 19 - 4 10 - 2 C+ +4 D- -6 C- B- F A+ +13 A+ A- D-
 Sat, Feb 14 104 Hofstra W 70 - 66 61% +0  47% 20 - 4 11 - 2 B- +5 B- +5 B- D+ A C+ +1 B+ A F
 Thu, Feb 19 187 Monmouth W 79 - 69 80% -0  41% 21 - 4 12 - 2 B- +5 C +1 F C- A+ B +4 C A+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 196 @Campbell W 73 - 68 62% -1  26% 22 - 4 13 - 2 B- +6 C- -1 F D- A A- +7 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 276 N.C. A&T W 88 - 65 89% +13  89% 23 - 4 14 - 2 B+ +14 A +14 D+ A+ A+ C+ +1 C- A+ F
 Sun, Mar 1 146 College of Charleston W 74 - 68 72%
 Tue, Mar 3 225 @Elon W 77 - 72 66%
Totals 24 - 5 15 - 3 +4 C+ +2 A C- D C+ +2 C+ D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C+ D+ D C+ C- 34% 42% 41% D D+ B- C+ B- B B+ D+ B C+ D+ C B+ C+ 30% 25% 44% B+ B- B C- B- D B D+ B
1.12 55% 33% 34% -2 -1 0.96 34% 1.1 .36 14% .36 70% .25 1.06 62% 38% 30% -1 -1 0.97 26% 1.0 .27 14% .25 74% .27
Nov
10		 Kent St. C F A- F F 51% 15% 34% B+ F B A- A- A+ D- C D- D F A- F F 23% 15% 63% B- F A+ F B- D- C- B C
1.07 42% 44% 19% -15 +2 0.75 35% 1.2 .42 10% .28 72% .20 1.19 82% 29% 43% +13 0 1.27 23% 1.4 .33 15% .39 71% .28
Nov
15		 South Carolina Upstate B- C D- B C- 52% 30% 18% D+ D+ A+ F+ A C- A+ B A+ C B C+ B- C+ 27% 38% 36% A+ B F+ C D C F+ D+ F+
1.19 57% 31% 38% -2 0 0.98 50% 1.0 .50 16% .54 75% .41 0.98 50% 35% 31% -5 -3 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 18% .36 72% .26
Nov
18		 East Carolina A- A+ F A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ C C- C C- A+ C A+ A- B C- A C 15% 43% 43% A+ B A- B A- D A+ F A-
1.27 80% 30% 48% +14 -1 1.28 31% 1.1 .34 18% .51 75% .38 0.90 50% 39% 26% -6 -5 0.81 27% 0.9 .24 15% .25 79% .19
Nov
21		 Radford B- B+ D B+ B 49% 13% 38% B B A+ D+ A- F+ A- F C- B- B A F D 24% 14% 61% B- D+ B B+ B+ B C+ F+ C-
1.16 65% 33% 39% +6 +2 1.17 45% 1.0 .45 21% .38 57% .22 1.04 50% 29% 40% +2 0 1.06 25% 0.9 .22 20% .34 79% .27
Nov
26		 SE Louisiana C A+ B- F D- 26% 28% 47% D- D- C D- D+ A- A+ C+ A+ B- F D- A+ B- 21% 27% 52% B+ B- A B- B+ F A+ A+ A+
1.12 82% 42% 20% -3 -2 0.93 31% 1.0 .31 16% .57 77% .44 0.91 91% 43% 15% -7 -2 0.85 21% 0.9 .18 11% .22 50% .11
Nov
28		 Navy A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 26% 35% 39% F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A B- A A A- A A+ A+ 39% 19% 43% D A+ C- A+ A+ D- A+ F A
1.34 58% 56% 44% +13 -3 1.22 57% 1.4 .79 23% .34 76% .26 0.87 48% 30% 22% -13 0 0.76 32% 0.6 .18 15% .20 91% .18
Nov
29		 Gardner-Webb C+ A- D+ A+ B+ 32% 21% 47% D B- F A+ D+ A F C- F B- B A+ F+ C 35% 14% 51% C+ C B- A+ A C+ B- F C
1.27 72% 33% 44% +11 -1 1.23 25% 1.4 .34 10% .18 73% .13 0.90 50% 0% 38% -5 +1 0.94 20% 0.5 .10 20% .24 77% .18
Dec
3		 Marshall C- B+ F F+ F 21% 38% 40% F F A- F+ C A+ A+ B- A+ C F C- A+ B 17% 42% 42% A+ A- C F F C+ A F C+
1.12 67% 13% 29% -11 -3 0.74 43% 0.8 .33 10% .69 74% .51 1.11 88% 40% 25% 0 -4 0.94 31% 1.5 .47 18% .18 100% .18
Dec
6		 Louisiana C F+ F B+ D- 47% 12% 42% B- D C C- C C+ A- D+ B+ B- B- C B- B- 27% 25% 48% D- C+ B+ F C- D- C- F+ D+
1.10 50% 20% 39% -3 +2 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 17% .45 71% .32 0.99 50% 38% 32% -4 -1 0.92 22% 1.1 .25 14% .24 77% .18
Dec
13		 Valparaiso B+ D+ C- F F 35% 20% 46% C F+ A+ C A+ B+ A+ F A+ C F A+ A+ A 28% 34% 38% B A F B- F+ F F+ D- F
1.15 56% 33% 24% -9 0 0.85 51% 0.9 .47 14% .61 58% .35 1.10 71% 24% 21% -9 -2 0.80 43% 1.0 .43 9% .42 75% .31
Dec
20		 Howard D C- D- F F 36% 28% 36% F F B+ B+ A C B C- B- C C A+ F C- 33% 39% 27% A+ C+ C- C C- C+ A+ F A
0.98 56% 29% 17% -13 -1 0.74 39% 1.3 .49 19% .37 70% .26 1.00 53% 25% 43% -3 -3 0.90 35% 1.1 .38 21% .23 83% .19
Dec
29		 N.C. A&T C+ F C+ A+ C 41% 20% 39% C+ C C F D D- A+ A A+ B- B+ F B C 32% 33% 35% B+ C+ A+ F A+ F C B C+
1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43 1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25
Dec
31		 Drexel C F A+ F D- 30% 37% 33% F F+ C A B A+ A+ D- A+ A- B F+ A+ A+ 18% 25% 57% A+ A+ F F F C- F B F
1.08 38% 50% 21% -8 -3 0.81 31% 1.3 .40 10% .52 71% .37 0.88 50% 45% 12% -18 -2 0.61 38% 1.1 .40 18% .39 63% .24
Jan
3		 Hampton F B- C F F 29% 33% 38% F F C- D- D+ D B+ F F A+ B C A+ A+ 33% 35% 33% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+
0.82 67% 36% 19% -7 -2 0.83 28% 0.9 .26 18% .43 38% .16 0.75 50% 35% 13% -14 -2 0.69 22% 0.7 .15 13% .17 78% .14
Jan
8		 Northeastern B- F F B+ F 50% 13% 38% B F B B B+ C- A+ A+ A+ C D A+ B- C 51% 15% 35% D- C- B+ C- B- F F A+ D+
1.20 46% 17% 39% -6 +2 0.94 36% 1.1 .39 18% .57 88% .50 1.07 64% 25% 32% 0 +2 1.05 22% 1.1 .24 10% .36 58% .21
Jan
10		 Stony Brook B- D F A+ B- 35% 17% 48% C+ B- C- A+ A- C+ C- F F C A F A+ B- 30% 21% 49% B B- A- F F D A+ F A+
1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13 1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09
Jan
17		 Campbell C+ B- D+ C- C- 54% 23% 23% B- C D+ F F A+ A+ A- A+ D+ F F B- F 43% 15% 41% C+ F C+ A+ A+ B+ F+ C+ D-
1.15 64% 33% 33% +2 +1 1.08 29% 0.7 .20 10% .41 80% .33 1.11 70% 57% 32% +7 +1 1.17 32% 0.5 .16 21% .45 71% .32
Jan
22		 William & Mary D- F F D F 27% 12% 61% C- F C+ D- C- C- A+ D A+ B D+ F A B 37% 6% 58% C- B A+ F B- D- C- B- C
0.96 38% 17% 30% -11 0 0.80 32% 0.9 .30 19% .56 67% .38 1.06 63% 67% 27% -3 +2 1.00 17% 1.5 .25 14% .35 73% .26
Jan
24		 Hampton A A- D+ F C 44% 29% 27% D C- B A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A+ D F D C+ F+ 24% 31% 45% B+ D B- F F+ F A+ A+ A+
1.25 72% 33% 27% +2 -1 1.05 33% 1.4 .47 13% .52 70% .37 1.12 67% 40% 32% +1 -2 1.00 30% 1.3 .39 13% .15 63% .10
Jan
29		 Towson A+ F A+ A+ A+ 24% 24% 52% D- A C+ B+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ D- B- F A+ F 37% 35% 27% B- F A+ C+ A+ F F C- F
1.28 42% 58% 42% +7 -1 1.14 29% 1.1 .31 6% .40 75% .30 1.14 53% 72% 21% +5 -2 1.08 18% 0.8 .14 8% .39 70% .27
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 William & Mary B- A A- A+ A+ 27% 25% 47% F A+ F+ C- D- B- C F D F A- A+ F B 43% 17% 40% B B F F F D F C F+
1.16 71% 46% 46% +14 -1 1.27 23% 1.0 .23 18% .29 56% .16 1.26 50% 13% 42% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 15% .42 75% .31
Feb
9		 College of Charleston B A+ F B- D+ 23% 37% 40% F D C A+ A- A+ B C B A B- F A+ B- 27% 33% 40% A+ B A F B B F+ F F
1.12 77% 14% 35% -4 -3 0.88 30% 1.3 .40 7% .27 71% .19 0.94 58% 47% 22% -4 -2 0.89 21% 1.3 .27 19% .42 83% .35
Feb
12		 Elon D- F D A C 25% 20% 55% D C- D A+ B- F D F F A+ B+ B A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% A+ A+ B A- A- D- B A- B+
1.08 45% 33% 42% +2 -1 1.05 29% 1.4 .41 20% .25 50% .12 0.90 50% 30% 21% -14 -1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 13% .27 64% .17
Feb
14		 Hofstra B- A B- D B+ 30% 38% 33% F B- C- D- D+ A A+ F A+ C+ F A+ C- B- 17% 38% 46% A+ B+ A- A- A F F B- F
1.15 67% 40% 31% +2 -3 1.00 29% 0.9 .26 10% .65 61% .40 1.08 75% 22% 36% -1 -4 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 11% .43 74% .31
Feb
19		 Monmouth C F+ F B+ F 45% 20% 35% C F F+ A C- A+ A+ A A+ B F A- B D 22% 43% 35% A+ C C+ A+ A+ A+ F F F
1.10 48% 0% 39% -9 +1 0.84 24% 1.2 .30 11% .55 80% .44 0.96 90% 30% 31% +2 -4 0.98 30% 0.5 .15 25% .41 86% .35
Feb
21		 Campbell C- F F C- F 37% 22% 41% C- F A- F D- A A+ F A+ A- B+ A+ F B+ 56% 17% 27% C- B+ A+ F+ A+ F A- F B-
1.07 47% 18% 33% -9 0 0.84 39% 0.7 .28 13% .56 61% .34 0.99 48% 0% 43% -8 +2 0.88 18% 1.2 .21 10% .31 79% .24
Feb
26		 N.C. A&T A B+ F A- C 27% 36% 36% F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F B- D- C+ F D A- D 21% 33% 46% A C- A+ B- A+ F A- A- A
1.36 67% 30% 40% +3 -3 1.02 39% 1.5 .58 6% .23 71% .16 1.01 80% 44% 27% +2 -3 1.00 18% 1.0 .18 14% .29 69% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 10.0 42.1 47.9 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 10.0 42.1 47.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 47.9    47.9
15-3 100.0% 42.1    42.1
14-4 100.0% 10.0    10.0
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 90.0 10.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 47.9% 32.1% 32.1% 12.4 0.4 9.0 5.8 0.2 32.5
15-3 42.1% 27.9% 27.9% 12.7 0.1 4.0 6.8 1.0 0.0 30.4
14-4 10.0% 22.3% 22.3% 12.8 0.6 1.4 0.2 7.8
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 29.4% 29.4% 0.0% 12.6 70.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 15.4% 100.0% 12.4 2.4 58.3 37.8 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.2%
Lose Out 2.8%