Villanova
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#32
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#15
Pace60.2#364
Improvement+2.0#67

Offense
Total Offense+7.4#39
First Shot+5.1#57
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#46
Layup/Dunks+0.6#157
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#325
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.4#9
Freethrows-1.2#260
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#30
First Shot+5.9#35
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#138
Layups/Dunks+0.6#153
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#184
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#133
Freethrows+3.7#13
Improvement+2.1#52
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 9.8% 10.5% 3.1%
Top 6 Seed 31.9% 33.6% 16.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.3% 87.5% 76.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.6% 85.9% 74.0%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.2
.500 or above 99.5% 99.7% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 94.0% 81.0%
Conference Champion 10.3% 11.0% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.5%
First Four6.1% 5.7% 10.0%
First Round83.3% 84.6% 71.2%
Second Round50.2% 51.7% 36.8%
Sweet Sixteen16.7% 17.5% 9.7%
Elite Eight5.8% 6.0% 3.2%
Final Four1.8% 1.9% 0.9%
Championship Game0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 89.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 7
Quad 26 - 211 - 9
Quad 37 - 118 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 11 BYU L 66-71 29%     0 - 1 +14.6 +3.3 +11.2
  Sat, Nov 8 211 Queens W 94-74 96%     1 - 1 +13.7 +15.3 -1.0
  Tue, Nov 11 250 Sacred Heart W 94-60 97%     2 - 1 +25.9 +22.4 +5.7
  Sat, Nov 15 121 Duquesne W 87-77 91%     3 - 1 +9.5 +13.8 -4.3
  Wed, Nov 19 233 @La Salle W 70-55 92%     4 - 1 +13.6 +10.4 +5.9
  Tue, Nov 25 217 Old Dominion W 89-75 96%     5 - 1 +7.5 +17.7 -9.5
  Mon, Dec 1 151 Temple W 74-56 93%     6 - 1 +15.5 +12.0 +7.3
  Sat, Dec 6 240 Penn W 90-63 95%     7 - 1 +22.4 +19.6 +4.4
  Tue, Dec 9 1 @Michigan L 61-89 8%     7 - 2 +1.8 -2.2 +6.8
  Sat, Dec 13 84 Pittsburgh W 79-61 83%     8 - 2 +21.6 +23.2 +2.1
  Fri, Dec 19 46 Wisconsin W 76-66 OT 61%     9 - 2 +21.1 +9.4 +11.9
  Tue, Dec 23 54 @Seton Hall W 64-56 56%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +20.5 +7.7 +13.7
  Wed, Dec 31 115 DePaul W 74-60 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 50 @Butler W 72-71 52%    
  Wed, Jan 7 36 Creighton W 71-67 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 105 @Marquette W 73-66 73%    
  Tue, Jan 13 78 @Providence W 78-74 64%    
  Sat, Jan 17 19 St. John's W 72-71 52%    
  Wed, Jan 21 99 Georgetown W 76-64 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 7 @Connecticut L 61-71 17%    
  Fri, Jan 30 78 Providence W 81-71 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 54 Seton Hall W 67-60 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 99 @Georgetown W 73-67 70%    
  Tue, Feb 10 105 Marquette W 76-63 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 36 @Creighton L 68-70 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 97 @Xavier W 72-67 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 7 Connecticut L 64-68 34%    
  Wed, Feb 25 50 Butler W 75-68 73%    
  Sat, Feb 28 19 @St. John's L 69-74 31%    
  Wed, Mar 4 115 @DePaul W 71-63 76%    
  Sat, Mar 7 97 Xavier W 75-64 85%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.5 8.3 6.1 2.1 0.3 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.9 8.4 7.9 4.1 0.8 0.0 25.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.4 7.0 4.7 1.6 0.2 19.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.6 10.1 13.3 15.5 15.2 13.8 9.6 5.4 2.4 0.7 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
18-2 87.8% 2.1    1.6 0.5
17-3 61.5% 3.3    1.9 1.3 0.1
16-4 28.7% 2.8    0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 8.2% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 5.5 3.8 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 41.2% 58.8% 1.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.7% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.4% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.4% 99.9% 24.1% 75.8% 4.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-4 9.6% 99.9% 19.9% 80.0% 5.3 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 13.8% 99.6% 14.7% 84.9% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.2 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-6 15.2% 97.8% 11.8% 86.0% 7.2 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.1 4.3 3.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.3 97.5%
13-7 15.5% 94.9% 9.1% 85.9% 8.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.1 3.9 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.8 94.4%
12-8 13.3% 87.6% 5.8% 81.8% 8.9 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.6 2.9 1.0 0.0 1.7 86.8%
11-9 10.1% 77.5% 4.5% 73.0% 9.6 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.8 1.6 0.0 2.3 76.5%
10-10 6.6% 59.8% 2.9% 57.0% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.0 2.7 58.6%
9-11 3.9% 31.6% 2.5% 29.1% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 2.7 29.8%
8-12 2.0% 9.3% 1.2% 8.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 8.3%
7-13 0.9% 1.8% 0.4% 1.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.9 1.4%
6-14 0.3% 1.0% 1.0% 11.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.3% 11.0% 75.4% 7.3 0.3 0.9 2.7 5.9 9.3 12.8 13.7 12.8 12.4 10.0 5.4 0.1 13.7 84.6%