Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.8#172
Expected Predictive Rating+0.9#157
Pace70.8#134
Improvement+3.1#22

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#127
First Shot-2.5#249
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#15
Layup/Dunks+3.7#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#154
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.9#347
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement+2.9#14

Defense
Total Defense-2.7#262
First Shot-1.2#208
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#284
Layups/Dunks+0.9#143
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#118
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#292
Freethrows+0.2#173
Improvement+0.1#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 15.4% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.6
.500 or above 82.2% 88.1% 71.5%
.500 or above in Conference 86.0% 91.2% 76.5%
Conference Champion 19.6% 24.7% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round13.7% 15.2% 11.0%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 64.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 65 - 9
Quad 413 - 418 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 113   @ Northern Iowa L 68-87 25%     0 - 1 -12.6 +0.1 -13.2
  Nov 13, 2024 202   @ Longwood L 62-76 43%     0 - 2 -12.9 -17.7 +6.6
  Nov 19, 2024 208   @ Duquesne W 80-74 44%     1 - 2 +6.7 +10.9 -4.1
  Nov 22, 2024 256   Portland St. W 91-74 76%     2 - 2 +8.7 +12.3 -3.6
  Nov 23, 2024 142   Wofford W 76-74 55%     3 - 2 +0.0 +5.4 -5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 133   St. Thomas W 69-65 53%     4 - 2 +2.5 -4.8 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2024 83   @ Central Florida L 76-84 17%     4 - 3 +1.5 +6.7 -4.9
  Nov 30, 2024 250   @ Southern Miss L 65-66 53%     4 - 4 -2.7 -1.4 -1.4
  Dec 05, 2024 259   Cleveland St. W 79-67 77%     5 - 4 1 - 0 +3.6 +11.1 -6.5
  Dec 11, 2024 310   @ Green Bay W 82-78 65%    
  Dec 15, 2024 131   Akron L 78-80 42%    
  Dec 29, 2024 356   IU Indianapolis W 84-68 93%    
  Jan 02, 2025 144   @ Oakland L 68-73 33%    
  Jan 04, 2025 298   @ Detroit Mercy W 76-73 63%    
  Jan 08, 2025 150   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-81 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 310   Green Bay W 85-75 82%    
  Jan 17, 2025 229   Youngstown St. W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 19, 2025 275   Robert Morris W 77-69 78%    
  Jan 22, 2025 136   @ Wright St. L 75-80 32%    
  Jan 24, 2025 216   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 02, 2025 150   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 05, 2025 356   @ IU Indianapolis W 81-71 80%    
  Feb 08, 2025 259   @ Cleveland St. W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 14, 2025 136   Wright St. W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 16, 2025 216   Northern Kentucky W 76-71 67%    
  Feb 21, 2025 229   @ Youngstown St. L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 23, 2025 275   @ Robert Morris W 74-72 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 144   Oakland W 71-70 55%    
  Mar 01, 2025 298   Detroit Mercy W 79-70 80%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.5 5.5 4.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 19.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.8 6.3 4.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 17.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.5 6.7 3.5 0.9 0.0 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.3 6.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 0.8 0.1 3.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.4 9.3 11.8 13.7 14.2 12.7 10.2 7.1 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 99.5% 1.9    1.8 0.1
17-3 93.0% 4.0    3.4 0.6 0.0
16-4 77.5% 5.5    3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 44.5% 4.5    2.1 1.9 0.6 0.0
14-6 18.5% 2.3    0.6 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 12.5 5.2 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 58.6% 58.6% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.6% 41.0% 41.0% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
18-2 1.9% 36.0% 36.0% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2
17-3 4.3% 31.4% 31.4% 13.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 3.0
16-4 7.1% 27.9% 27.9% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.1
15-5 10.2% 21.1% 21.1% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 8.1
14-6 12.7% 19.0% 19.0% 14.5 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.1 10.3
13-7 14.2% 13.7% 13.7% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 12.3
12-8 13.7% 10.2% 10.2% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 12.3
11-9 11.8% 6.9% 6.9% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 11.0
10-10 9.3% 5.5% 5.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 8.8
9-11 6.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.2
8-12 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.8
7-13 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.1
6-14 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.5 4.6 1.6 86.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 10.7 9.1 13.6 50.0 27.3