Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#157
Expected Predictive Rating-0.2#174
Pace76.1#33
Improvement+0.3#169

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#181
First Shot-1.3#227
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#92
Layup/Dunks-0.7#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#95
Freethrows-1.8#299
Improvement-1.9#288

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#151
First Shot-1.8#242
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#26
Layups/Dunks-3.0#286
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#90
Freethrows+0.3#166
Improvement+2.3#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 12.8 13.9
.500 or above 22.9% 44.5% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 14.5% 33.7% 10.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 1.4% 7.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.8% 1.3% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 17.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 22 - 52 - 9
Quad 34 - 56 - 14
Quad 47 - 213 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 342   Maryland Eastern Shore W 69-67 92%     1 - 0 -12.9 -11.7 -1.2
  Nov 13, 2021 282   Mount St. Mary's W 80-60 82%     2 - 0 +10.5 +6.3 +4.5
  Nov 17, 2021 158   Drexel L 75-78 60%     2 - 1 -5.2 -0.7 -4.5
  Nov 20, 2021 137   Monmouth L 75-87 55%     2 - 2 -12.9 -1.1 -11.2
  Nov 25, 2021 26   USC L 55-70 13%     2 - 3 -2.3 -10.3 +7.5
  Nov 26, 2021 155   Georgetown W 77-74 50%     3 - 3 +3.5 +1.0 +2.5
  Dec 01, 2021 310   Binghamton W 79-57 86%     4 - 3 +10.9 -2.8 +13.0
  Dec 04, 2021 6   @ Villanova L 52-81 4%     4 - 4 -8.6 -7.7 -2.7
  Dec 08, 2021 211   Penn W 78-71 69%     5 - 4 +2.2 +6.5 -3.8
  Dec 11, 2021 122   Temple W 68-49 50%     6 - 4 +19.4 -4.0 +23.4
  Dec 18, 2021 117   @ Bradley L 73-77 29%     6 - 5 +2.0 +2.4 -0.4
  Dec 30, 2021 99   @ Richmond W 83-56 23%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +35.3 +7.6 +25.9
  Jan 05, 2022 53   Davidson L 73-88 27%     7 - 6 1 - 1 -8.3 -2.4 -5.6
  Jan 12, 2022 89   @ Rhode Island L 64-75 21%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -2.0 -6.7 +5.4
  Jan 17, 2022 226   La Salle L 64-75 72%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -16.6 -12.2 -4.2
  Jan 19, 2022 271   George Washington W 72-61 80%     8 - 8 2 - 3 +2.4 -2.9 +5.4
  Jan 22, 2022 75   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 62-72 17%    
  Jan 26, 2022 190   Duquesne W 75-71 67%    
  Jan 29, 2022 80   @ St. Bonaventure L 66-75 18%    
  Feb 05, 2022 215   Fordham W 72-67 71%    
  Feb 09, 2022 53   @ Davidson L 68-79 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 154   @ Massachusetts L 79-82 38%    
  Feb 16, 2022 123   George Mason W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 19, 2022 72   Dayton L 66-71 35%    
  Feb 22, 2022 71   @ Saint Louis L 68-78 17%    
  Feb 26, 2022 80   St. Bonaventure L 69-73 37%    
  Mar 02, 2022 226   @ La Salle W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 05, 2022 89   Rhode Island L 68-72 39%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 7 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.9 3.2 0.1 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 6.6 5.8 0.8 14.3 8th
9th 0.5 5.8 8.3 1.9 0.1 16.5 9th
10th 0.1 3.2 8.7 3.2 0.1 15.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 6.6 4.7 0.3 0.0 12.8 11th
12th 0.3 4.0 4.7 0.8 0.0 9.8 12th
13th 0.2 1.8 3.4 1.0 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.1 14th
Total 0.7 3.2 9.1 16.0 21.1 20.1 15.2 8.9 3.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 30.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 9.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.4% 3.3% 3.3% 12.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.3% 7.8% 7.8% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 3.8% 3.2% 3.2% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
9-9 8.9% 1.9% 1.9% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.8
8-10 15.2% 1.0% 1.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 15.1
7-11 20.1% 0.7% 0.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.0
6-12 21.1% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.1 0.0 21.0
5-13 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-14 9.1% 9.1
3-15 3.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.2
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%