St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#38
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#43
Pace62.4#325
Improvement+0.7#150

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#130
First Shot+0.6#156
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#102
Layup/Dunks+8.4#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.1#358
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#198
Freethrows-1.3#279
Improvement-0.2#181

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#7
First Shot+4.8#45
After Offensive Rebounds+4.3#2
Layups/Dunks-0.8#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#13
Freethrows+2.1#49
Improvement+0.8#137
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 6 Seed 6.5% 7.8% 2.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.5% 64.4% 47.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 58.1% 62.1% 44.9%
Average Seed 9.3 9.2 10.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 83.4% 53.4%
Conference Champion 5.9% 7.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four13.3% 13.1% 14.0%
First Round54.2% 58.3% 40.4%
Second Round26.8% 29.6% 17.4%
Sweet Sixteen8.2% 9.1% 5.1%
Elite Eight3.0% 3.4% 1.8%
Final Four1.1% 1.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

Next Game: Santa Clara (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 7
Quad 24 - 16 - 8
Quad 37 - 113 - 9
Quad 48 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 303   Prairie View W 87-68 97%     1 - 0 +8.2 +7.7 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2021 204   Texas Southern W 67-58 91%     2 - 0 +4.6 -3.4 +8.5
  Nov 15, 2021 142   Southern Utah W 70-51 87%     3 - 0 +17.7 -4.6 +22.3
  Nov 17, 2021 192   Bellarmine W 73-64 91%     4 - 0 +5.1 -1.7 +7.2
  Nov 22, 2021 65   Notre Dame W 62-59 60%     5 - 0 +11.2 -1.9 +13.4
  Nov 23, 2021 40   Oregon W 62-50 50%     6 - 0 +22.6 -1.9 +25.7
  Nov 24, 2021 25   Wisconsin L 55-61 42%     6 - 1 +6.8 -4.3 +10.3
  Nov 29, 2021 143   UC Riverside W 67-50 87%     7 - 1 +15.7 +9.0 +9.7
  Dec 02, 2021 73   @ Utah St. W 60-58 53%     8 - 1 +12.0 -3.5 +15.6
  Dec 04, 2021 47   @ Colorado St. L 58-74 43%     8 - 2 -3.5 -9.3 +5.1
  Dec 11, 2021 176   UC Santa Barbara W 80-59 90%     9 - 2 +17.9 +9.2 +10.0
  Dec 17, 2021 33   San Diego St. L 53-63 47%     9 - 3 +1.5 -3.9 +4.3
  Dec 22, 2021 77   Missouri St. W 75-58 72%     10 - 3 +21.7 +9.6 +13.8
  Dec 28, 2021 134   Yale W 87-60 85%     11 - 3 +26.5 +10.2 +15.2
  Jan 08, 2022 29   @ BYU L 43-52 35%     11 - 4 0 - 1 +5.7 -17.8 +22.6
  Jan 13, 2022 253   @ Pepperdine W 77-62 89%     12 - 4 1 - 1 +12.6 +9.5 +4.1
  Jan 20, 2022 95   Santa Clara W 71-64 77%    
  Jan 22, 2022 131   @ Loyola Marymount W 65-59 69%    
  Jan 27, 2022 39   @ San Francisco L 62-64 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 253   Pepperdine W 74-56 96%    
  Feb 03, 2022 245   @ Portland W 71-58 87%    
  Feb 05, 2022 131   Loyola Marymount W 68-57 85%    
  Feb 08, 2022 95   @ Santa Clara W 68-66 57%    
  Feb 10, 2022 172   San Diego W 67-53 90%    
  Feb 12, 2022 1   @ Gonzaga L 65-79 8%    
  Feb 19, 2022 29   BYU W 63-62 55%    
  Feb 24, 2022 172   @ San Diego W 64-55 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 1   Gonzaga L 67-76 21%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 9 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.6 1.8 0.2 5.9 1st
2nd 0.3 5.2 4.7 0.2 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 6.3 10.9 0.5 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 7.3 14.4 2.6 24.7 4th
5th 0.5 5.9 12.0 3.6 0.0 22.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.0 6.5 2.2 0.0 12.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.0 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.4 13.9 21.9 24.7 19.0 8.9 2.0 0.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
12-4 91.6% 1.8    1.3 0.6 0.0
11-5 41.1% 3.6    0.3 1.5 1.5 0.3
10-6 1.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 5.9% 5.9 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3 0.2% 100.0% 18.7% 81.3% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-4 2.0% 99.1% 17.3% 81.8% 4.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
11-5 8.9% 97.5% 13.6% 83.9% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.2 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 97.1%
10-6 19.0% 86.9% 7.8% 79.2% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 4.4 3.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 2.5 85.8%
9-7 24.7% 71.2% 5.1% 66.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 5.1 5.3 1.7 0.0 7.1 69.7%
8-8 21.9% 51.3% 3.7% 47.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 4.8 2.5 0.1 10.7 49.4%
7-9 13.9% 27.6% 2.4% 25.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.5 0.1 10.1 25.8%
6-10 6.4% 7.9% 2.5% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 5.9 5.5%
5-11 2.4% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 11.9 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.3%
4-12 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 13.0 0.0 0.6
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 60.5% 5.6% 54.8% 9.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.8 4.6 6.6 10.1 12.3 14.0 6.3 0.2 39.5 58.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.0 13.6 68.2 18.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.3 4.1 18.4 28.6 36.7 12.2