St. Mary's
West Coast
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#32
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#73
Pace61.9#339
Improvement-0.2#203

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#99
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#135
Layup/Dunks+4.4#40
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#229
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#204
Freethrows-0.4#205
Improvement-0.3#296

Defense
Total Defense+9.9#9
First Shot+7.0#28
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#29
Layups/Dunks+0.0#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#28
Freethrows+1.0#133
Improvement+0.1#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 1.6% 4.7% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 6.5% 16.3% 4.1%
Top 6 Seed 15.9% 32.0% 12.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.0% 87.8% 68.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.0% 83.5% 59.5%
Average Seed 8.3 7.2 8.6
.500 or above 99.3% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 98.0% 96.0%
Conference Champion 26.4% 32.9% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four8.2% 5.2% 8.9%
First Round68.3% 85.3% 64.0%
Second Round38.2% 54.2% 34.3%
Sweet Sixteen13.7% 22.9% 11.5%
Elite Eight5.7% 10.0% 4.6%
Final Four2.2% 4.2% 1.7%
Championship Game0.8% 1.7% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.7% 0.2%

Next Game: Houston (Neutral) - 19.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 7
Quad 310 - 217 - 8
Quad 45 - 022 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 105   Oral Roberts W 78-70 85%     1 - 0 +9.5 +1.3 +8.2
  Nov 10, 2022 196   Vermont W 79-53 93%     2 - 0 +21.4 +12.0 +12.1
  Nov 13, 2022 82   North Texas W 63-33 80%     3 - 0 +33.6 +10.3 +31.2
  Nov 16, 2022 214   Southern W 72-54 95%     4 - 0 +12.2 +5.1 +8.8
  Nov 19, 2022 131   Hofstra W 76-48 88%     5 - 0 +27.6 -0.1 +27.6
  Nov 23, 2022 88   Vanderbilt W 75-65 73%     6 - 0 +16.1 +2.8 +13.0
  Nov 24, 2022 91   Washington L 64-68 OT 74%     6 - 1 +1.7 -8.6 +10.6
  Nov 30, 2022 57   New Mexico L 65-69 73%     6 - 2 +2.2 -5.1 +7.2
  Dec 03, 2022 1   Houston L 52-61 20%    
  Dec 07, 2022 112   Missouri St. W 65-53 86%    
  Dec 10, 2022 25   San Diego St. L 62-63 46%    
  Dec 14, 2022 104   New Mexico St. W 73-62 84%    
  Dec 18, 2022 72   Colorado St. W 65-57 77%    
  Dec 21, 2022 146   Wyoming W 67-56 84%    
  Dec 29, 2022 179   San Diego W 71-55 93%    
  Dec 31, 2022 103   @ Santa Clara W 68-63 67%    
  Jan 07, 2023 110   Portland W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 12, 2023 132   Loyola Marymount W 72-59 87%    
  Jan 14, 2023 84   @ San Francisco W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 19, 2023 134   @ Pepperdine W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 21, 2023 103   Santa Clara W 71-60 83%    
  Jan 28, 2023 87   @ BYU W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 02, 2023 84   San Francisco W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 04, 2023 11   Gonzaga L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 09, 2023 132   @ Loyola Marymount W 69-62 73%    
  Feb 11, 2023 110   @ Portland W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 16, 2023 179   @ San Diego W 68-58 81%    
  Feb 18, 2023 87   BYU W 70-61 79%    
  Feb 23, 2023 228   Pacific W 77-58 96%    
  Feb 25, 2023 11   @ Gonzaga L 67-75 24%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 12 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 3.2 7.3 8.9 5.2 1.2 26.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.6 10.7 14.5 10.1 2.9 42.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.6 6.5 5.0 1.4 0.1 15.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.2 0.3 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.3 0.1 4.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.5 8.0 12.4 16.7 19.1 17.4 11.8 5.2 1.2 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 1.2    1.2
15-1 100.0% 5.2    4.5 0.7
14-2 75.3% 8.9    5.7 3.2 0.0
13-3 41.9% 7.3    3.5 3.5 0.3
12-4 16.8% 3.2    0.9 1.8 0.5 0.0
11-5 3.5% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 26.4% 26.4 15.9 9.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 1.2% 99.8% 46.3% 53.6% 2.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-1 5.2% 99.3% 36.1% 63.2% 4.5 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.9%
14-2 11.8% 97.6% 32.3% 65.3% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.5%
13-3 17.4% 92.6% 27.1% 65.5% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.7 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.1 0.8 0.1 1.3 89.9%
12-4 19.1% 83.5% 23.2% 60.3% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.7 4.2 4.1 2.4 0.3 0.0 3.2 78.6%
11-5 16.7% 69.7% 19.4% 50.2% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.9 3.1 0.6 0.0 5.1 62.3%
10-6 12.4% 51.9% 14.8% 37.2% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 2.8 0.8 0.0 6.0 43.6%
9-7 8.0% 33.1% 12.3% 20.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.3 23.7%
8-8 4.5% 20.4% 10.4% 10.0% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 11.2%
7-9 2.2% 11.7% 10.1% 1.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.7%
6-10 0.9% 6.7% 6.7% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
5-11 0.3% 7.3% 7.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
4-12 0.1% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-13 0.0% 0.0
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 72.0% 22.3% 49.7% 8.3 0.6 1.0 1.7 3.2 4.5 5.0 7.9 9.1 11.8 13.2 10.9 2.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 28.0 64.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 54.9 36.3 8.8