St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.3#16
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#48
Pace75.2#46
Improvement-1.6#293

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#20
First Shot+7.9#19
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#108
Layup/Dunks+6.9#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#324
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#250
Freethrows+5.9#3
Improvement-2.7#347

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#13
First Shot+12.7#2
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#359
Layups/Dunks-0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.4#7
Freethrows+2.9#33
Improvement+1.1#105
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.3% 3.4% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 9.8% 10.3% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 34.1% 35.3% 15.1%
Top 6 Seed 62.3% 63.6% 40.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.6% 95.1% 86.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 92.6% 93.2% 83.7%
Average Seed 5.5 5.5 6.7
.500 or above 99.4% 99.5% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.3% 92.6%
Conference Champion 32.0% 33.0% 14.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four2.1% 1.9% 5.1%
First Round93.7% 94.2% 84.5%
Second Round73.3% 74.2% 57.8%
Sweet Sixteen38.1% 39.0% 23.5%
Elite Eight17.2% 17.6% 10.1%
Final Four7.8% 8.1% 3.7%
Championship Game3.3% 3.3% 1.7%
National Champion1.3% 1.3% 0.6%

Next Game: DePaul (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 7
Quad 28 - 214 - 9
Quad 36 - 021 - 9
Quad 43 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 169 Quinnipiac W 108-74 96%     1 - 0 +30.2 +17.3 +7.4
  Sat, Nov 8 15 Alabama L 96-103 60%     1 - 1 +7.6 +10.6 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 15 121 William & Mary W 93-60 94%     2 - 1 +33.0 +8.7 +20.1
  Thu, Nov 20 304 Bucknell W 97-49 99%     3 - 1 +37.1 +12.9 +20.5
  Mon, Nov 24 4 Iowa St. L 82-83 33%     3 - 2 +20.9 +22.2 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 25 32 Baylor W 96-81 65%     4 - 2 +28.3 +24.1 +3.8
  Wed, Nov 26 28 Auburn L 74-85 61%     4 - 3 +3.4 +9.2 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 6 60 Mississippi W 63-58 85%     5 - 3 +11.2 -7.7 +18.7
  Sat, Dec 13 171 Iona W 91-64 97%     6 - 3 +23.1 +8.9 +12.0
  Tue, Dec 16 113 DePaul W 83-66 94%    
  Sat, Dec 20 22 Kentucky W 80-78 56%    
  Tue, Dec 23 200 Harvard W 85-62 98%    
  Wed, Dec 31 101 @Georgetown W 83-74 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 69 Providence W 91-79 88%    
  Tue, Jan 6 54 @Butler W 83-79 66%    
  Sat, Jan 10 59 @Creighton W 78-73 68%    
  Tue, Jan 13 88 Marquette W 85-71 91%    
  Sat, Jan 17 36 @Villanova W 74-72 57%    
  Tue, Jan 20 56 Seton Hall W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Jan 24 76 @Xavier W 81-74 73%    
  Wed, Jan 28 54 Butler W 86-76 82%    
  Tue, Feb 3 113 @DePaul W 80-69 84%    
  Fri, Feb 6 6 Connecticut L 73-74 49%    
  Mon, Feb 9 76 Xavier W 84-71 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 69 @Providence W 88-82 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 88 @Marquette W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 59 Creighton W 81-70 84%    
  Wed, Feb 25 6 @Connecticut L 70-76 28%    
  Sat, Feb 28 36 Villanova W 77-69 76%    
  Tue, Mar 3 101 Georgetown W 86-71 91%    
  Fri, Mar 6 56 @Seton Hall W 75-70 67%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.7 5.8 9.0 8.4 4.2 1.1 32.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.7 8.6 11.9 9.8 4.8 1.2 40.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 3.0 4.8 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.1 4.2 6.9 10.0 13.7 16.3 16.0 13.9 9.6 4.2 1.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 100.0% 4.2    3.9 0.3
18-2 87.7% 8.4    6.7 1.8 0.0
17-3 65.2% 9.0    5.8 3.1 0.1
16-4 36.5% 5.8    3.0 2.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 16.5% 2.7    1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.0% 32.0 21.6 9.3 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 100.0% 56.6% 43.4% 1.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 4.2% 100.0% 47.2% 52.8% 2.1 1.3 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 9.6% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 2.9 0.9 2.7 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 13.9% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 3.8 0.4 1.5 3.7 4.5 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.0% 99.9% 30.3% 69.7% 4.8 0.1 0.3 2.0 4.3 4.5 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 16.3% 99.8% 25.5% 74.3% 5.8 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.4 4.5 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 13.7% 98.7% 20.6% 78.1% 6.8 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.3 3.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 98.4%
13-7 10.0% 95.8% 17.4% 78.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.4 94.9%
12-8 6.9% 88.4% 13.0% 75.4% 8.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.8 86.7%
11-9 4.2% 70.2% 11.3% 58.9% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.0 1.3 66.4%
10-10 2.1% 52.5% 8.4% 44.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 48.1%
9-11 1.2% 23.8% 5.0% 18.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9 19.8%
8-12 0.5% 7.9% 3.6% 4.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.4%
7-13 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 94.6% 27.0% 67.6% 5.5 3.3 6.5 10.4 13.9 14.5 13.7 12.0 8.8 5.9 3.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 5.4 92.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 71.9 27.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.7 46.7 38.3 13.3 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 50.0 42.9 7.1