St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.5 #18
Expected Predictive Rating +15.6 #29
Pace 73.3 #66
Improvement -0.2 #189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #21 C+ A- B+ A- B
Defense #19 B+ B- A- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.16 #177 +3.8 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #276 0.76 #170 -1.7 #268
Three Pointers 39% #227 1.06 #121 -0.4 #197
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #128 +1.7 #131
Freethrows 0.37 #15 75% #93 0.28 #13
Second Chance 37.1% #26 1.20 #27 0.45 #16
Turnovers 13.2% #21
Total Offense +9.5 #21

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #81 0.96 #11 +2.0 #110
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #86 0.74 #139 -0.9 #256
Three Pointers 34% #346 0.97 #119 +4.3 #32
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #39 +5.4 #38
Freethrows 0.29 #135 72% #180 0.21 #137
Second Chance 29.4% #129 0.97 #78 0.28 #97
Turnovers 20.9% #14
Total Defense +7.9 #19

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #48 -0.2% #147
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.3% #154 -10.4% #31
Possession Length 15.2 #22 19.0 #350
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #30 0.14 #76
Improvement +0.1 #172 -0.4 #218

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.3% 4.0% 0.7%
Top 4 Seed 25.0% 28.2% 12.0%
Top 6 Seed 71.2% 75.2% 55.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.6% 98.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.5% 98.3%
Average Seed 5.6 5.4 6.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 29.6% 33.0% 16.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round99.4% 99.6% 98.7%
Second Round78.5% 80.1% 72.0%
Sweet Sixteen37.0% 38.7% 30.1%
Elite Eight15.5% 16.3% 12.2%
Final Four6.0% 6.4% 4.7%
Championship Game2.2% 2.3% 1.6%
National Champion0.9% 0.9% 0.7%

Next Game: DePaul (Away) - 79.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 6
Quad 210 - 116 - 8
Quad 35 - 121 - 9
Quad 44 - 025 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 176 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 97% +21  1 - 0 +30 +17 A+ A C +7 B- A A+
 Sat, Nov 8 16 Alabama L 96 - 103 59% -5  1 - 1 +8 +11 B+ B- C+ -2 B+ C D-
 Sat, Nov 15 133 William & Mary W 93 - 60 95% +13  2 - 1 +32 +8 C B- A+ +19 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 323 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +21  3 - 1 +35 +12 C D D+ +19 A+ B A+
 Mon, Nov 24 9 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 39% -4  3 - 2 +19 +22 C A+ A+ -2 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 48 Baylor W 96 - 81 73% +12  4 - 2 +26 +24 A+ A+ B- +2 A+ B- B
 Wed, Nov 26 25 Auburn L 74 - 85 57% -2  4 - 3 +5 +10 D- A+ D+ -6 D+ F+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 64 Mississippi W 63 - 58 86% +5  5 - 3 +11 -8 F A- F +19 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 225 Iona W 91 - 64 98% +8  6 - 3 +20 +10 A+ B- F +9 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 95 DePaul W 79 - 66 91% +4  7 - 3 1 - 0 +16 +9 C C A +6 A+ D+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 27 Kentucky L 66 - 78 59% -3  7 - 4 +3 +2 F A C +2 B+ D+ A+
 Tue, Dec 23 177 Harvard W 85 - 59 97% +9  8 - 4 +22 +13 B- A- D+ +10 B- A+ A
 Wed, Dec 31 89 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 78% +6  9 - 4 2 - 0 +21 +27 A A+ C+ -5 D- B- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 66 Providence L 71 - 77 87% +4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -8 F A- C- +8 A+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 6 60 @Butler W 84 - 70 70% -1  10 - 5 3 - 1 +26 +14 C+ C A+ +12 D- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 55 @Creighton W 90 - 73 67% +13  11 - 5 4 - 1 +30 +25 A+ C A+ +5 C A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 93 Marquette W 92 - 68 91% +9  12 - 5 5 - 1 +27 +15 C+ A- A- +10 D A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 36 @Villanova W 86 - 79 52% +3  13 - 5 6 - 1 +24 +20 B+ A- A+ +4 D+ C A+
 Tue, Jan 20 53 Seton Hall W 65 - 60 83% -7  14 - 5 7 - 1 +12 +7 D- B+ A- +6 C+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 83 @Xavier W 88 - 83 77% -3  15 - 5 8 - 1 +15 +12 C+ B+ A +2 C- A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 28 60 Butler W 92 - 70 86% +11  16 - 5 9 - 1 +28 +32 A+ A+ A+ -1 A- A+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 95 @DePaul W 79 - 70 80%
 Fri, Feb 6 10 Connecticut W 74 - 73 52%
 Mon, Feb 9 83 Xavier W 88 - 74 91%
 Sat, Feb 14 66 @Providence W 90 - 84 70%
 Wed, Feb 18 93 @Marquette W 84 - 75 79%
 Sat, Feb 21 55 Creighton W 84 - 74 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 10 @Connecticut L 70 - 76 30%
 Sat, Feb 28 36 Villanova W 77 - 70 73%
 Tue, Mar 3 89 Georgetown W 84 - 70 91%
 Fri, Mar 6 53 @Seton Hall W 73 - 69 66%
Totals 23 - 8 16 - 4 +17 +10 C+ A- B+ +8 B+ B- A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 3.2 10.5 11.9 3.6 29.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 6.5 16.7 22.2 14.8 2.1 63.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.7 1.5 0.2 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 9.2 18.4 25.6 25.3 14.1 3.6 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 3.6    3.6
18-2 84.9% 11.9    7.8 4.1
17-3 41.6% 10.5    4.4 6.0 0.0
16-4 12.5% 3.2    0.9 2.1 0.2
15-5 1.7% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1
14-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 16.8 12.4 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 3.6% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 2.8 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 14.1% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 4.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.8 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 25.3% 100.0% 32.6% 67.4% 4.9 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.0 8.9 6.2 1.7 0.1 100.0%
16-4 25.6% 99.9% 28.4% 71.5% 5.8 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.9 8.7 5.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 99.9%
15-5 18.4% 99.6% 25.2% 74.4% 6.5 0.1 0.5 2.7 5.6 6.1 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 9.2% 98.4% 21.5% 76.9% 7.3 0.0 0.5 1.6 3.2 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.9%
13-7 2.8% 96.3% 14.8% 81.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 95.7%
12-8 0.8% 84.9% 11.2% 73.7% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 83.0%
11-9 0.2% 67.6% 11.8% 55.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 63.3%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.5% 29.8% 69.7% 5.6 0.5 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.9 31.3 48.1 19.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 100.0% 3.2 4.1 21.3 34.0 31.0 9.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6% 100.0% 3.7 3.1 4.7 29.5 51.2 10.1 1.6