Arkansas
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.7#20
Expected Predictive Rating+18.7#15
Pace74.1#64
Improvement+3.0#30

Offense
Total Offense+9.3#19
First Shot+6.3#32
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#31
Layup/Dunks+3.3#68
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#135
Freethrows+2.7#41
Improvement+2.8#23

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#30
First Shot+10.4#6
After Offensive Rebounds-4.0#355
Layups/Dunks-1.3#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#10
Freethrows+3.1#29
Improvement+0.3#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.9% 3.6% 1.0%
Top 2 Seed 8.0% 13.3% 5.1%
Top 4 Seed 34.5% 47.3% 27.5%
Top 6 Seed 63.7% 76.4% 56.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.1% 96.2% 88.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.4% 95.8% 87.6%
Average Seed 5.5 4.8 5.9
.500 or above 97.6% 99.4% 96.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.4% 83.5% 75.7%
Conference Champion 11.6% 15.0% 9.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four4.0% 2.3% 4.9%
First Round89.3% 95.1% 86.1%
Second Round67.3% 76.5% 62.3%
Sweet Sixteen32.7% 40.2% 28.7%
Elite Eight12.9% 17.0% 10.8%
Final Four4.6% 6.5% 3.6%
Championship Game1.6% 2.3% 1.3%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.4%

Next Game: Houston (Neutral) - 35.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 74 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 9
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 203 Southern W 109-77 97%     1 - 0 +26.1 +19.9 +1.8
  Sat, Nov 8 11 @Michigan St. L 66-69 30%     1 - 1 +18.1 +7.5 +10.6
  Tue, Nov 11 286 Central Arkansas W 93-56 98%     2 - 1 +27.3 +12.2 +13.0
  Fri, Nov 14 232 Samford W 79-75 97%     3 - 1 -3.1 -0.9 -2.3
  Tue, Nov 18 113 Winthrop W 84-83 92%     4 - 1 +1.4 +7.2 -5.8
  Fri, Nov 21 317 Jackson St. W 115-61 99%     5 - 1 +41.9 +29.7 +7.9
  Thu, Nov 27 2 Duke L 71-80 25%     5 - 2 +13.7 +9.8 +3.9
  Wed, Dec 3 14 Louisville W 89-80 55%     6 - 2 +23.6 +14.2 +8.7
  Sat, Dec 6 181 Fresno St. W 82-58 96%     7 - 2 +19.5 +3.9 +14.5
  Sat, Dec 13 27 Texas Tech W 93-86 54%     8 - 2 +21.7 +29.8 -7.7
  Tue, Dec 16 210 Queens W 108-80 97%     9 - 2 +21.7 +13.6 +4.7
  Sat, Dec 20 8 Houston L 69-73 35%    
  Mon, Dec 29 193 James Madison W 88-67 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 15 Tennessee W 76-75 55%    
  Wed, Jan 7 60 @Mississippi W 77-73 64%    
  Sat, Jan 10 28 @Auburn L 80-82 44%    
  Wed, Jan 14 86 South Carolina W 81-69 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 19 @Georgia L 85-88 39%    
  Tue, Jan 20 10 Vanderbilt W 83-82 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 35 LSU W 82-76 70%    
  Tue, Jan 27 47 @Oklahoma W 82-80 56%    
  Sat, Jan 31 21 Kentucky W 81-78 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 84 @Mississippi St. W 82-76 71%    
  Tue, Feb 10 35 @LSU L 79-80 49%    
  Sat, Feb 14 28 Auburn W 83-79 65%    
  Tue, Feb 17 16 @Alabama L 87-92 34%    
  Sat, Feb 21 49 Missouri W 85-77 76%    
  Wed, Feb 25 45 Texas A&M W 87-79 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 13 @Florida L 77-82 33%    
  Wed, Mar 4 40 Texas W 82-76 71%    
  Sat, Mar 7 49 @Missouri W 82-80 56%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 3.2 1.7 0.6 0.1 11.6 1st
2nd 0.3 2.4 4.6 2.9 0.7 0.1 10.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 5.1 3.3 0.6 0.0 10.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.8 4.1 0.7 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.2 2.7 5.3 1.1 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.3 2.4 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 3.0 4.1 0.4 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 1.2 4.4 1.3 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.8 2.6 0.1 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.5 0.0 4.3 11th
12th 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.2 0.0 3.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.4 6.2 9.1 11.8 14.2 15.1 13.1 10.4 7.3 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 96.7% 1.7    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 81.2% 3.2    2.2 0.9 0.1
14-4 52.1% 3.8    1.6 1.6 0.5 0.1
13-5 17.6% 1.8    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1
12-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.6% 11.6 6.3 3.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.0 0.4 1.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.0% 100.0% 23.3% 76.7% 2.5 0.5 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 7.3% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.4% 100.0% 15.2% 84.8% 3.7 0.1 1.1 3.5 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.1% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 4.4 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.4 3.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 15.1% 99.9% 6.9% 92.9% 5.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 4.9 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 14.2% 99.6% 4.2% 95.5% 6.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 4.7 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.6%
9-9 11.8% 98.5% 2.3% 96.2% 7.2 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.3 3.3 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.4%
8-10 9.1% 89.1% 1.5% 87.6% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.0 1.0 88.9%
7-11 6.2% 63.8% 0.9% 62.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 0.1 2.2 63.5%
6-12 3.4% 25.3% 0.3% 25.0% 10.8 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 2.5 25.1%
5-13 1.8% 4.0% 0.2% 3.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 3.8%
4-14 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.8 0.4%
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 91.1% 8.0% 83.1% 5.5 1.9 6.1 11.9 14.6 15.4 13.8 9.7 6.3 4.4 3.5 3.5 0.2 8.9 90.4%