Preseason Rankings
George Mason
Atlantic 10
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+5.1#99
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.1#314
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#138
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#66
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.7% 10.7% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.0% 2.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 10.4 10.4 11.0
.500 or above 81.1% 84.9% 61.1%
.500 or above in Conference 64.0% 66.9% 48.6%
Conference Champion 10.3% 11.3% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 3.1% 8.4%
First Four1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
First Round9.1% 10.1% 4.1%
Second Round2.8% 3.1% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wofford (Home) - 84.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 23 - 43 - 6
Quad 38 - 411 - 10
Quad 49 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 206   Wofford W 69-58 84%    
  Nov 07, 2025 161   Winthrop W 77-68 79%    
  Nov 15, 2025 356   New Hampshire W 77-56 97%    
  Nov 18, 2025 253   Jacksonville W 71-58 88%    
  Nov 24, 2025 145   Ohio W 72-68 65%    
  Nov 29, 2025 129   James Madison W 68-62 71%    
  Dec 02, 2025 160   Cornell W 78-69 78%    
  Dec 06, 2025 76   @ Virginia Tech L 62-67 33%    
  Dec 13, 2025 200   Old Dominion W 71-61 82%    
  Dec 21, 2025 317   Loyola Maryland W 74-57 93%    
  Dec 28, 2025 278   Penn W 75-61 90%    
  Dec 31, 2025 196   @ La Salle W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 03, 2026 146   Rhode Island W 73-66 73%    
  Jan 07, 2026 164   @ Fordham W 71-68 59%    
  Jan 10, 2026 58   Virginia Commonwealth L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 13, 2026 103   @ Loyola Chicago L 64-67 42%    
  Jan 19, 2026 85   George Washington W 68-66 56%    
  Jan 24, 2026 146   @ Rhode Island W 70-69 55%    
  Jan 28, 2026 144   Davidson W 69-62 73%    
  Jan 31, 2026 120   @ St. Bonaventure L 62-63 49%    
  Feb 04, 2026 115   Duquesne W 66-61 65%    
  Feb 07, 2026 111   Saint Joseph's W 68-64 64%    
  Feb 10, 2026 137   @ Richmond W 64-63 51%    
  Feb 13, 2026 85   @ George Washington L 65-69 37%    
  Feb 18, 2026 65   Dayton L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 25, 2026 111   @ Saint Joseph's L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 28, 2026 120   St. Bonaventure W 66-60 68%    
  Mar 03, 2026 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 60-68 28%    
  Mar 07, 2026 72   Saint Louis W 68-67 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.2 10.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.8 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 10.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 4.5 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 4.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.2 0.5 0.0 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.9 3.7 1.2 0.1 7.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 3.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.6 6.7 8.4 9.9 10.8 11.1 10.9 9.7 8.1 5.9 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.3% 1.1    1.0 0.1
16-2 93.4% 2.0    1.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 72.6% 2.9    1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-4 43.8% 2.6    1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0
13-5 15.2% 1.2    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.3% 10.3 6.3 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 89.0% 59.9% 29.1% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.6%
17-1 1.1% 77.3% 43.2% 34.2% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 60.1%
16-2 2.2% 58.6% 36.6% 22.0% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.9 34.7%
15-3 4.0% 40.4% 27.7% 12.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 17.6%
14-4 5.9% 25.5% 21.4% 4.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.4 5.3%
13-5 8.1% 16.0% 14.8% 1.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 6.8 1.4%
12-6 9.7% 11.5% 11.0% 0.5% 11.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.5%
11-7 10.9% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 11.6 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 10.0 0.0%
10-8 11.1% 4.4% 4.4% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.6
9-9 10.8% 2.1% 2.1% 12.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 10.6
8-10 9.9% 1.4% 1.4% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8
7-11 8.4% 0.5% 0.5% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4
6-12 6.7% 0.8% 0.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
5-13 4.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 4.6
4-14 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
3-15 1.8% 1.8
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.7% 7.8% 1.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.5 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 90.3 2.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.7 16.7 25.3 33.4 16.3 8.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.6 0.8 32.8 66.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 100.0