Louisiana
Sun Belt
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 #317
Pace 60.0 #362
Improvement +5.3 #15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #330 D D- C F+ F
Defense #244 D+ C- C+ D- D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% #360 1.02 #333 -8.1 #362
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #15 0.77 #147 +4.8 #13
Three Pointers 40% #212 0.97 #245 -1.6 #241
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #323 -4.9 #323
Freethrows 0.23 #356 68% #310 0.16 #358
Second Chance 24.5% #333 0.90 #332 0.22 #346
Turnovers 17.3% #196
Total Offense -6.3 #330

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #43 1.17 #202 -3.6 #303
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #323 0.64 #15 +2.8 #9
Three Pointers 40% #208 1.16 #342 -2.4 #287
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #284 -3.2 #285
Freethrows 0.38 #339 73% #240 0.28 #340
Second Chance 32.7% #275 1.02 #181 0.33 #241
Turnovers 17.9% #122
Total Defense -1.9 #244

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -4.5% #359 2.1% #345
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #272 4.2% #263
Possession Length 19.5 #353 17.5 #233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #339 0.16 #140
Improvement +5.2 #6 +0.1 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 13.1% 32.8% 7.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Away) - 20.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 48 - 1010 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 296 @Ball St. L 64 - 75 38% -2  0 - 1 -16 -4 D- D C -13 F D- C
 Fri, Nov 7 280 SE Louisiana W 58 - 52 56% +9  1 - 1 -4 -5 A- F C +2 A- C- C
 Tue, Nov 11 171 Tulane L 62 - 66 34% -3  1 - 2 -8 -7 F+ C- A -1 B- F+ B-
 Fri, Nov 14 87 @McNeese St. L 62 - 88 6% -18  1 - 3 -17 -4 F C C- -14 F A+ B
 Tue, Nov 18 85 @Stanford L 66 - 93 6% -12  1 - 4 -17 -3 C+ D- C -14 F+ B- C-
 Fri, Nov 21 46 @Santa Clara L 43 - 80 3% -20  1 - 5 -22 -21 F F F -3 A+ F F+
 Mon, Nov 24 189 @UC Davis L 56 - 77 19% -8  1 - 6 -20 -12 F F D -9 F C D-
 Fri, Nov 28 338 Jackson St. L 45 - 51 73% -5  1 - 7 -20 -29 F C- F +8 B C+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 190 @Lamar L 55 - 65 19% +2  1 - 8 -9 -8 D C- F -2 C- B+ D-
 Sat, Dec 6 117 UNC Wilmington L 63 - 70 21% -3  1 - 9 -7 -4 D+ C- C -3 C- B- B
 Sat, Dec 13 218 @Louisiana Tech L 44 - 65 23% -11  1 - 10 -21 -19 D- F F -6 D+ F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 251 @Southern Miss L 54 - 62 28% -2  1 - 11 0 - 1 -10 -16 F F B+ +6 A+ B+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 360 @Louisiana Monroe W 76 - 62 65% +12  2 - 11 1 - 1 +2 +5 B- F A+ -2 B- F B+
 Sun, Dec 28 307 Norfolk St. W 63 - 54 63% +9  3 - 11 -3 -2 C+ F A +1 A- B- D+
 Wed, Dec 31 196 South Alabama L 58 - 63 39% -2  3 - 12 1 - 2 -10 -1 D C B+ -11 D+ D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 251 Southern Miss L 67 - 74 50% -2  3 - 13 1 - 3 -15 -6 D A+ D- -10 F B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 360 Louisiana Monroe W 85 - 79 82% +3  4 - 13 2 - 3 -12 +2 C- A- F -14 F C C-
 Sat, Jan 10 141 Troy L 70 - 90 27% -16  4 - 14 2 - 4 -22 +3 A F B- -26 F+ F B
 Wed, Jan 14 259 @Texas St. L 54 - 59 29% -5  4 - 15 2 - 5 -8 -10 F D- B- +2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 196 @South Alabama W 59 - 56 20% +1  5 - 15 3 - 5 +4 +1 C- F+ A+ +3 C D- C
 Thu, Jan 22 173 @Appalachian St. L 58 - 72 17% -1  5 - 16 3 - 6 -12 -1 F C A -14 F C A-
 Thu, Jan 29 269 Georgia St. W 82 - 72 53% +10  6 - 16 4 - 6 +1 +13 A+ C+ C -11 B+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 31 260 Georgia Southern W 69 - 60 52% +6  7 - 16 5 - 6 +0 -1 B- F+ B+ +2 B- C A+
 Wed, Feb 4 205 @James Madison L 63 - 71 21%
 Sat, Feb 7 293 Central Michigan W 67 - 65 59%
 Thu, Feb 12 238 Coastal Carolina L 65 - 66 47%
 Mon, Feb 16 243 @Old Dominion L 64 - 71 27%
 Thu, Feb 19 168 Arkansas St. L 69 - 73 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 259 Texas St. W 65 - 64 51%
 Tue, Feb 24 141 @Troy L 60 - 72 12%
 Fri, Feb 27 168 @Arkansas St. L 66 - 76 16%
Totals 10 - 21 7 - 11 -8 -6 D D- C -2 D+ C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.1 4th
5th 0.5 1.2 0.0 1.7 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 0.5 2.8 6th
7th 0.5 4.1 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 3.1 2.4 5.5 8th
9th 0.4 7.7 0.5 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 3.3 7.1 0.0 10.5 10th
11th 0.6 10.6 3.1 14.3 11th
12th 0.1 6.8 12.2 0.4 19.5 12th
13th 9.0 17.8 4.2 0.0 31.0 13th
14th 14th
Total 9.1 25.2 30.9 21.8 9.8 2.7 0.6 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 50.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.6% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-8 2.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.7
9-9 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.8
8-10 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 21.8
7-11 30.9% 30.9
6-12 25.2% 25.2
5-13 9.1% 9.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.9 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.1%