Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +17.9 #17
Expected Predictive Rating +15.3 #32
Pace 73.6 #60
Improvement -1.8 #264

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #13 A B- B- B- B+
Defense #24 B+ B+ C+ B- A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.38 #11 +3.8 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #361 0.91 #29 -4.5 #356
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.13 #34 +10.3 #2
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #4 +9.6 #4
Freethrows 0.31 #156 77% #35 0.24 #106
Second Chance 35.1% #59 1.02 #186 0.36 #84
Turnovers 15.1% #88
Total Offense +10.5 #13

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #334 1.01 #28 +6.4 #19
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #24 0.61 #8 -0.7 #241
Three Pointers 41% #195 0.98 #129 +0.8 #145
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #23 +6.6 #23
Freethrows 0.27 #85 71% #88 0.19 #77
Second Chance 24.9% #19 0.94 #64 0.23 #24
Turnovers 17.9% #100
Total Defense +7.4 #24

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.3% #16 -2.9% #18
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.9% #13 -10.2% #31
Possession Length 14.7 #9 18.7 #348
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #280 0.06 #1
Improvement -2.8 #324 +0.9 #126

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 18.9% 20.2% 6.9%
Top 6 Seed 55.9% 58.1% 35.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.8% 98.1% 94.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.5% 97.8% 94.3%
Average Seed 6.2 6.1 7.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.1% 98.1% 88.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 1.0% 3.7%
First Round97.3% 97.7% 93.3%
Second Round74.4% 75.5% 64.4%
Sweet Sixteen34.3% 35.0% 27.2%
Elite Eight15.0% 15.4% 10.9%
Final Four6.4% 6.6% 4.1%
Championship Game2.6% 2.8% 1.6%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.5%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 27 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 10
Quad 34 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 359 South Carolina St. W 104 - 45 100% +40  1 - 0 +41 +8 B C F +24 A+ A- A+
 Thu, Nov 6 337 Jackson St. W 106 - 70 99% +22  2 - 0 +22 +17 A C+ B+ +2 D- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 11 26 Kentucky W 96 - 88 69% +8  3 - 0 +21 +21 A B A+ -1 C C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 200 Ohio W 106 - 81 97% +14  4 - 0 +19 +21 A- A+ B+ -4 F+ A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 53 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 77% +1  5 - 0 +20 +10 B F B- +10 B- A+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 237 Eastern Michigan W 87 - 46 98% +20  6 - 0 +34 +16 A+ C A +19 A+ B+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 324 NJIT W 104 - 47 99% +31  7 - 0 +44 +28 A+ A+ C+ +17 A+ A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 22 @Arkansas L 80 - 89 44% -10  7 - 1 +10 +8 B- F A+ +4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 30 Indiana W 87 - 78 62% +12  8 - 1 +24 +15 A+ F+ C- +8 A+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 91 Memphis W 99 - 73 91% +17  9 - 1 +29 +29 A+ A+ B -1 A+ D- F+
 Tue, Dec 16 19 @Tennessee L 62 - 83 40% -11  9 - 2 -0 +1 B- C- F -2 D- A D
 Sat, Dec 20 158 Montana W 94 - 54 96% +17  10 - 2 +37 +15 A- A+ D- +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 64 @California W 90 - 70 72% +16  11 - 2 1 - 0 +32 +22 A+ A- B +9 A+ A- D
 Fri, Jan 2 88 @Stanford L 76 - 80 79% -3  11 - 3 1 - 1 +5 +15 C+ A C -10 C D- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 3 Duke L 73 - 84 40% +2  11 - 4 1 - 2 +10 +6 B B- B- +4 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 127 Boston College W 75 - 62 95% -1  12 - 4 2 - 2 +12 +6 A+ F F+ +6 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 23 Virginia L 70 - 79 67% -9  12 - 5 2 - 3 +4 +6 B C- A -2 C+ B- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 94 @Pittsburgh W 100 - 59 80% +27  13 - 5 3 - 3 +50 +38 A+ A+ A+ +15 A+ A C-
 Sat, Jan 24 60 Virginia Tech W 85 - 71 86% +9  14 - 5 4 - 3 +20 +14 A- A+ D +6 C A+ A-
 Mon, Jan 26 3 @Duke L 52 - 83 20% -12  14 - 6 4 - 4 -4 -4 C D+ B- -3 B- C B
 Sat, Jan 31 39 SMU W 88 - 74 76% -1  15 - 6 5 - 4 +24 +12 A+ C- A- +11 B A- A+
 Wed, Feb 4 82 Notre Dame W 82 - 68 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 75 @Wake Forest W 84 - 77 76%
 Mon, Feb 9 21 North Carolina St. W 84 - 80 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 44 Baylor W 84 - 78 72%
 Tue, Feb 17 39 @SMU W 83 - 82 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 Georgia Tech W 89 - 71 95%
 Mon, Feb 23 29 @North Carolina L 82 - 83 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 33 @Clemson W 73 - 72 52%
 Tue, Mar 3 68 Syracuse W 86 - 73 88%
 Sat, Mar 7 40 @Miami (FL) W 81 - 79 58%
Totals 22 - 9 11 - 7 +18 +11 A B- B- +7 B+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.3 3.3 2.9 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.8 7.5 1.4 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.1 11.1 4.5 0.1 17.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 9.9 8.8 0.6 20.0 5th
6th 0.1 4.6 10.7 1.5 0.0 17.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.4 7.3 3.2 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.3 3.5 3.9 0.3 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.5 0.0 3.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.7 17.1 26.3 25.6 15.9 4.5 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 4.5% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-5 15.9% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 4.4 0.1 0.8 2.8 5.0 4.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
12-6 25.6% 99.8% 12.5% 87.4% 5.5 0.1 1.2 3.6 7.5 7.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 26.3% 99.3% 9.5% 89.9% 6.6 0.2 1.1 3.9 7.1 7.8 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.2 99.3%
10-8 17.1% 97.2% 7.0% 90.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.1 5.2 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.5 97.0%
9-9 7.7% 91.2% 5.2% 86.0% 8.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.1 1.4 0.4 0.7 90.7%
8-10 2.4% 76.2% 2.6% 73.6% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 75.5%
7-11 0.5% 41.2% 2.1% 39.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 40.0%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 97.8% 11.1% 86.6% 6.2 2.2 97.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 2.0 29.5 46.2 23.1 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 100.0% 2.8 7.8 27.1 42.2 21.7 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 100.0% 3.3 4.2 13.2 36.5 37.6 8.5