UAB
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#115
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#141
Pace72.5#99
Improvement-0.9#245

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#103
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#38
Layup/Dunks+7.0#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.8#361
Freethrows+0.6#134
Improvement+2.2#38

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#153
First Shot-2.5#262
After Offensive Rebounds+2.9#19
Layups/Dunks-1.2#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#38
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#293
Freethrows-0.1#190
Improvement-3.1#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.7% 8.0% 6.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 86.3% 89.3% 71.9%
.500 or above in Conference 73.2% 75.2% 64.0%
Conference Champion 8.8% 9.5% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.2% 2.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round7.7% 8.0% 6.1%
Second Round1.0% 1.0% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Asheville (Home) - 82.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 38 - 510 - 10
Quad 49 - 219 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 365 Mississippi Valley W 106-55 99%     1 - 0 +25.0 +4.1 +12.0
  Fri, Nov 7 29 @North Carolina St. L 70-94 10%     1 - 1 -6.7 -0.6 -4.6
  Tue, Nov 11 282 Alabama St. L 74-77 88%     1 - 2 -12.4 -9.7 -2.5
  Fri, Nov 14 106 High Point W 91-74 59%     2 - 2 +18.1 +5.9 +10.3
  Fri, Nov 21 185 South Alabama W 80-72 78%     3 - 2 +3.2 +12.9 -8.9
  Mon, Nov 24 135 Southern Illinois W 81-73 57%     4 - 2 +9.5 +9.2 +0.3
  Tue, Nov 25 217 UTEP W 75-59 74%     5 - 2 +12.5 +11.0 +3.3
  Mon, Dec 1 160 @Middle Tennessee L 61-76 52%     5 - 3 -12.0 -6.1 -6.8
  Fri, Dec 5 136 @Drake W 74-69 46%     6 - 3 +9.3 +3.8 +5.7
  Sun, Dec 14 143 Troy L 85-86 69%     6 - 4 -2.9 +13.8 -16.7
  Wed, Dec 17 329 Cleveland St. W 101-77 93%     7 - 4 +11.0 +14.0 -4.3
  Sun, Dec 21 216 UNC Asheville W 81-71 83%    
  Wed, Dec 31 100 Wichita St. W 75-74 55%    
  Tue, Jan 6 83 @South Florida L 79-85 28%    
  Wed, Jan 7 117 Florida Atlantic W 81-78 62%    
  Sun, Jan 11 250 @East Carolina W 78-72 70%    
  Wed, Jan 14 199 @Tulane W 79-76 60%    
  Sun, Jan 18 81 Tulsa L 79-80 47%    
  Thu, Jan 22 83 South Florida L 81-82 49%    
  Wed, Jan 28 295 @Texas San Antonio W 81-73 75%    
  Sat, Jan 31 146 @North Texas L 68-69 48%    
  Thu, Feb 5 76 Memphis L 76-77 46%    
  Sun, Feb 8 205 Rice W 79-70 80%    
  Wed, Feb 11 81 @Tulsa L 76-83 27%    
  Sun, Feb 15 199 Tulane W 82-73 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 148 @Temple L 78-79 48%    
  Sun, Feb 22 76 @Memphis L 73-80 26%    
  Sun, Mar 1 146 North Texas W 71-66 68%    
  Wed, Mar 4 193 @Charlotte W 75-72 59%    
  Sun, Mar 8 250 East Carolina W 81-69 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 8.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.7 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 6.0 3.8 0.4 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.6 4.7 0.7 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.8 1.1 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.3 2.1 4.2 1.7 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.2 1.6 0.1 6.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.7 7.6 10.5 13.2 14.8 14.1 12.2 9.4 5.6 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 98.1% 1.0    0.9 0.1
15-3 83.7% 2.2    1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 53.8% 3.0    1.4 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.2% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.8% 8.8 4.5 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 29.1% 25.3% 3.8% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.1%
16-2 1.1% 31.6% 31.6% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7
15-3 2.6% 22.5% 22.5% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.0
14-4 5.6% 18.8% 18.8% 11.9 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 4.6
13-5 9.4% 15.4% 15.4% 12.2 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.0
12-6 12.2% 12.2% 12.2% 12.4 0.0 0.9 0.5 0.0 10.7
11-7 14.1% 7.8% 7.8% 12.6 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 13.0
10-8 14.8% 4.9% 4.9% 12.8 0.3 0.4 0.1 14.1
9-9 13.2% 3.1% 3.1% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.8
8-10 10.5% 2.1% 2.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3
7-11 7.6% 2.0% 2.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.4
6-12 4.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6
5-13 2.4% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.4
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 92.3 0.0%