IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Wichita St.
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+5.2	#99
Expected Predictive Rating	+3.1	#119

Pace	65.1	#281
Improvement	-2.1	#285

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#100	C-	A-	B	C	C
Defense	#104	B-	B-	C-	B-	B+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	42%	#89	1.10	#252	+0.7	#152
2 Pt. Jumpers	21%	#167	0.70	#270	-0.5	#205
Three Pointers	37%	#261	1.03	#169	-1.7	#238
1st FG Attempt			0.99	#224	-1.4	#225
Freethrows	0.31	#170	70%	#272	0.21	#199
Second Chance	41.1%	#4	1.07	#142	0.44	#20
Turnovers					14.5%	#65
Total Offense					+2.7	#100

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	36%	#241	1.12	#131	+1.9	#118
2 Pt. Jumpers	28%	#25	0.76	#180	-2.8	#345
Three Pointers	36%	#318	0.93	#74	+4.3	#33
1st FG Attempt			0.95	#72	+3.4	#73
Freethrows	0.27	#84	70%	#70	0.19	#77
Second Chance	28.1%	#90	0.98	#99	0.28	#81
Turnovers					15.6%	#226
Total Defense					+2.5	#104

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.4%	#164	-2.1%	#33
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-3.3%	#232	-4.5%	#94
Possession Length	17.7	#206	18.2	#300
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.12	#307	0.13	#52
Improvement	-0.8	#223	-1.4	#266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	11.6%	15.2%	10.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.0	11.8	12.1

.500 or above	97.3%	99.6%	96.3%
.500 or above in Conference	94.8%	99.1%	92.9%
Conference Champion	11.7%	24.4%	6.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	11.6%	15.2%	10.0%
Second Round	1.5%	1.9%	1.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 2	3 - 4	4 - 6
Quad 3	6 - 5	10 - 11
Quad 4	10 - 2	19 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Tue, Nov 4	204 UNC Asheville	W	75 - 58	85%	+4	1 - 0		+11	+2	F	A+	F	+9	A+	F	A-
Sat, Nov 8	333 Prairie View	W	105 - 62	95%	+18	2 - 0		+29	+17	B	B	A+	+8	A+	F	A+
Thu, Nov 13	272 Loyola Chicago	W	95 - 74	91%	+14	3 - 0		+12	+24	C	A+	A+	-11	F	A+	D+
Tue, Nov 18	64 @Boise St.	L	59 - 62	26%	-4	3 - 1		+9	-2	F+	A-	D+	+10	A+	C+	C
Sat, Nov 22	245 Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	75 - 58	88%	+1	4 - 1		+9	+1	D+	D+	A-	+9	A-	B-	B-
Wed, Nov 26	42 St. Mary's	L	65 - 70	26%	-3	4 - 2		+7	-0	C-	C	F+	+7	A+	B+	D-
Thu, Nov 27	96 Colorado St.	L	70 - 76	49%	-10	4 - 3		-1	+10	F	A+	B-	-12	F	A+	C-
Fri, Nov 28	166 Western Kentucky	L	70 - 75	71%	-1	4 - 4		-6	+5	D+	B	A-	-11	D	B	D-
Sat, Dec 6	108 @Northern Iowa	W	74 - 69 OT	43%	+2	5 - 4		+12	+9	A	B+	D	+3	C+	A-	D
Sat, Dec 13	92 DePaul	L	58 - 61	59%	-1	5 - 5		-0	-5	D+	C	B-	+4	F	A+	A+
Wed, Dec 17	213 Wofford	W	84 - 73	85%	+7	6 - 5		+5	+11	B-	B-	A-	-5	C+	D-	D+
Sun, Dec 21	260 Eastern Kentucky	W	88 - 57	89%	+22	7 - 5		+23	+12	C	A+	A	+12	A	A+	F+
Wed, Dec 31	118 @UAB	W	75 - 70	47%	-6	8 - 5	1 - 0	+11	+11	C+	A+	C	+0	B-	C	C-
Sat, Jan 3	171 @Charlotte	L	100 - 104 2OT	62%	+10	8 - 6	1 - 1	-2	+20	B	A+	C	-21	C+	F	F
Wed, Jan 7	239 Rice	L	64 - 66	88%	-2	8 - 7	1 - 2	-9	-8	F	F+	A	-1	C-	A	D
Sun, Jan 11	140 North Texas	W	78 - 67	75%	+8	9 - 7	2 - 2	+9	+8	A+	C+	F+	+1	A-	C-	C-
Thu, Jan 15	101 @Florida Atlantic	L	67 - 85	39%	-15	9 - 8	2 - 3	-10	-2	F+	B-	C	-8	F	A+	C
Sun, Jan 18	68 @South Florida	W	86 - 85 OT	29%	+1	10 - 8	3 - 3	+12	+11	B-	C+	A	+1	C+	A+	C-
Wed, Jan 21	254 East Carolina	W	77 - 60	89%	+14	11 - 8	4 - 3	+9	+9	F	A+	A	+1	A-	A	F
Sat, Jan 24	102 Memphis	W	74 - 59	62%	+13	12 - 8	5 - 3	+17	+4	B	C+	B	+13	A+	B-	A-
Sun, Feb 1	74 @Tulsa	L	74 - 79	31%
Wed, Feb 4	171 Charlotte	W	75 - 66	81%
Sun, Feb 8	173 @Tulane	W	73 - 70	62%
Wed, Feb 11	68 South Florida	W	78 - 77	51%
Sat, Feb 14	74 Tulsa	W	77 - 76	51%
Wed, Feb 18	254 @East Carolina	W	74 - 67	75%
Sat, Feb 21	143 Temple	W	75 - 68	75%
Thu, Feb 26	102 @Memphis	L	69 - 72	39%
Sun, Mar 1	344 @Texas San Antonio	W	80 - 66	90%
Sat, Mar 7	101 Florida Atlantic	W	76 - 73	61%
Totals						18 - 12	11 - 7	+5	+3	C-	A-	B	+2	B-	B-	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected American Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.0	0.9	5.0	4.6	1.1				11.7	1st
2nd												0.4	6.7	7.2	0.9					15.1	2nd
3rd											0.1	4.1	10.1	1.6	0.0					15.9	3rd
4th										0.0	1.7	10.5	4.1	0.1						16.4	4th
5th										0.4	6.5	7.2	0.3							14.4	5th
6th									0.0	2.6	7.5	1.4								11.5	6th
7th								0.0	0.6	4.6	2.4	0.0								7.7	7th
8th								0.1	2.0	2.4	0.2									4.7	8th
9th							0.0	0.5	1.3	0.2										2.1	9th
10th							0.1	0.3	0.1											0.5	10th
11th							0.0	0.1	0.0											0.1	11th
12th							0.0													0.0	12th
13th																					13th

Total							0.1	1.0	4.1	10.2	18.4	23.6	22.2	13.9	5.5	1.1					Total

American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	100.0%	1.1	1.0	0.1
14-4	84.4%	4.6	2.5	1.9	0.3	0.0
13-5	36.3%	5.0	0.8	2.1	1.6	0.5	0.0
12-6	4.2%	0.9		0.1	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.0
11-7	0.0%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	11.7%	11.7	4.3	4.1	2.2	0.8	0.3	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3	1.1%	29.7%	29.2%	0.5%	11.0										0.0	0.3	0.0					0.7	0.7%
14-4	5.5%	22.1%	22.1%		11.6											0.5	0.7	0.0				4.3
13-5	13.9%	19.9%	19.9%		11.9											0.6	2.0	0.2				11.1
12-6	22.2%	14.4%	14.4%		12.0											0.3	2.5	0.4	0.0			19.0
11-7	23.6%	9.8%	9.8%		12.2											0.1	1.6	0.6	0.0			21.3
10-8	18.4%	6.4%	6.4%		12.4											0.0	0.7	0.4	0.0			17.3
9-9	10.2%	4.5%	4.5%		12.5												0.2	0.2	0.0			9.7
8-10	4.1%	2.9%	2.9%		13.5												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		4.0
7-11	1.0%	3.9%	3.9%		14.5														0.0	0.0		1.0
6-12	0.1%																					0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	11.6%	11.6%	0.0%	12.0																	88.4	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	10	11	12
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	11.0	12.9	79.0	8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.3%	1.7%	11.0		1.7