BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+19.5#7
Expected Predictive Rating+20.4#8
Pace69.5#189
Improvement+2.7#18

Offense
Total Offense+11.0#8
First Shot+8.0#21
After Offensive Rebound+3.1#31
Layup/Dunks+4.1#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#115
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#124
Freethrows+1.3#111
Improvement+1.5#53

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#11
First Shot+13.3#1
After Offensive Rebounds-4.8#355
Layups/Dunks+9.4#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#37
Freethrows+2.3#56
Improvement+1.2#74
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.9% 4.3% 1.4%
#1 Seed 19.6% 21.1% 9.7%
Top 2 Seed 42.0% 44.7% 24.0%
Top 4 Seed 73.6% 76.1% 57.2%
Top 6 Seed 89.6% 91.2% 78.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.8% 99.1% 97.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.5% 98.9% 96.5%
Average Seed 3.4 3.2 4.3
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 96.5% 92.5%
Conference Champion 28.9% 30.3% 19.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.8%
First Round98.6% 98.9% 96.2%
Second Round89.0% 90.3% 80.3%
Sweet Sixteen59.6% 61.1% 49.4%
Elite Eight34.0% 35.3% 25.4%
Final Four17.9% 18.6% 12.6%
Championship Game9.0% 9.5% 6.1%
National Champion4.3% 4.6% 2.5%

Next Game: Dayton (Neutral) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 55 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 110 - 6
Quad 27 - 117 - 7
Quad 34 - 021 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 41 Villanova W 71-66 77%     1 - 0 +17.0 +4.9 +12.2
  Sat, Nov 8 330 Holy Cross W 98-53 99%     2 - 0 +32.3 +15.8 +15.3
  Tue, Nov 11 241 Delaware W 85-68 99%     3 - 0 +9.4 +21.0 -9.0
  Sat, Nov 15 8 Connecticut L 84-86 51%     3 - 1 +17.3 +14.3 +3.1
  Fri, Nov 21 27 Wisconsin W 98-70 70%     4 - 1 +42.0 +24.5 +15.8
  Thu, Nov 27 44 Miami (FL) W 72-62 77%     5 - 1 +21.8 +7.2 +14.8
  Fri, Nov 28 78 Dayton W 78-66 87%    
  Wed, Dec 3 136 California Baptist W 80-62 95%    
  Mon, Dec 8 38 Clemson W 75-68 75%    
  Sat, Dec 13 257 UC Riverside W 88-60 99%    
  Tue, Dec 16 144 Pacific W 84-62 98%    
  Fri, Dec 19 252 Abilene Christian W 83-55 99%    
  Mon, Dec 22 240 Eastern Washington W 91-64 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 54 @Kansas St. W 86-79 73%    
  Wed, Jan 7 83 Arizona St. W 85-69 92%    
  Sat, Jan 10 125 @Utah W 84-70 90%    
  Wed, Jan 14 51 TCU W 79-67 87%    
  Sat, Jan 17 24 @Texas Tech W 76-74 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 125 Utah W 87-67 96%    
  Mon, Jan 26 11 Arizona W 79-75 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 18 @Kansas W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Feb 4 46 @Oklahoma St. W 85-80 69%    
  Sat, Feb 7 5 Houston W 70-67 60%    
  Tue, Feb 10 28 @Baylor W 80-77 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 72 Colorado W 85-70 90%    
  Wed, Feb 18 11 @Arizona L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 4 Iowa St. W 77-74 59%    
  Tue, Feb 24 68 Central Florida W 89-74 90%    
  Sat, Feb 28 71 @West Virginia W 74-65 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 65 @Cincinnati W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Mar 7 24 Texas Tech W 79-71 75%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 4.4 8.6 8.9 4.9 1.3 28.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.3 8.0 4.8 1.0 0.1 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.9 6.9 3.5 0.6 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 4.0 2.5 0.3 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.4 0.4 5.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.0 6.8 10.1 13.5 15.3 16.2 14.0 9.9 5.0 1.3 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 98.6% 4.9    4.5 0.4
16-2 90.1% 8.9    6.6 2.1 0.2
15-3 61.4% 8.6    4.3 3.5 0.8 0.1
14-4 27.2% 4.4    1.1 1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.9% 28.9 17.9 7.9 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 48.2% 51.8% 1.1 1.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 5.0% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.2 3.8 1.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 9.9% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.5 5.7 3.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.0% 100.0% 29.6% 70.4% 1.9 5.1 6.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.2% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 2.4 2.8 6.4 5.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.3% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 3.1 1.0 3.5 5.4 3.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.5% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 4.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.6 2.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.1% 99.9% 8.4% 91.4% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 6.8% 99.6% 5.6% 94.0% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
9-9 4.0% 97.5% 3.8% 93.7% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.4%
8-10 2.2% 92.4% 2.8% 89.5% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 92.1%
7-11 1.1% 64.9% 2.5% 62.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 64.0%
6-12 0.5% 41.1% 2.8% 38.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 39.4%
5-13 0.2% 3.9% 3.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 3.9%
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 98.8% 20.5% 78.4% 3.4 19.6 22.4 17.6 14.0 9.7 6.3 4.0 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.2 98.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 91.5 8.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.0 97.2 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 75.5 24.5