Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.9 #265
Expected Predictive Rating -7.1 #275
Pace 69.2 #182
Improvement +0.5 #151

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #260 C- C- C F C+
Defense #258 C- D+ C B+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #293 1.19 #135 -1.9 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #291 0.46 #363 -4.3 #351
Three Pointers 51% #21 0.99 #218 +4.2 #47
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #228 -1.9 #228
Freethrows 14.5 #318 67% #324 9.7 #330
Second Chance 28.0% #250 1.09 #133 0.30 #214
Turnovers 16.5% #172
Total Offense -3.2 #260

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #332 1.31 #330 +1.7 #117
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #357 0.60 #16 +3.8 #3
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.00 #172 -7.0 #355
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #237 -1.4 #233
Freethrows 13.5 #26 76% #305 10.2 #326
Second Chance 28.4% #101 1.25 #348 0.36 #269
Turnovers 17.2% #139
Total Defense -2.7 #258

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #139 0.8% #240
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.4% #237 2.2% #226
Possession Length 17.4 #184 16.8 #107
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #208 0.19 #235
Improvement +2.1 #66 -1.6 #287

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 6.2% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 18.1% 22.7% 7.3%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 72.1% 43.5%
Conference Champion 2.4% 3.1% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.7% 3.5%
First Four2.8% 2.9% 2.5%
First Round4.3% 5.0% 2.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Home) - 70.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 412 - 813 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 2% -24  0 - 1 -22 -15 F B+ F -5 D+ F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 26 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 2% -16  0 - 2 -19 -14 F D A+ -3 D- A+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 240 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 57% +3  0 - 3 -15 -7 D- F D -7 F B F
 Thu, Nov 20 137 @North Texas L 56 - 74 17% -5  0 - 4 -14 -9 C- F F -5 B B F
 Sun, Nov 23 255 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 60% +20  1 - 4 +19 +10 A+ F B- +7 A- D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 311 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 72% +16  2 - 4 +9 +15 A+ A+ D+ -3 D+ D+ C+
 Sat, Nov 29 119 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 14% -10  2 - 5 -17 -14 F C- B -2 F A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 65% +29  3 - 5 +28 +6 C+ F C- +22 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 321 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 53% -1  3 - 6 -14 -9 D+ F B- -4 A- F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 9 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 1% -15  3 - 7 +12 +5 C B- A +8 A+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 30 @SMU L 82 - 99 3% -11  3 - 8 +1 +15 A+ A+ D -14 D- F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 201 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 48% -3  4 - 8 1 - 0 -3 +15 B+ A+ A+ -18 F D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 345 Stetson W 93 - 73 80% +13  5 - 8 2 - 0 +5 +15 B- A+ C -9 F D- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 294 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 46% +0  5 - 9 2 - 1 -11 -6 F C A -4 D+ D- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 253 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 37% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -2 B- F F -4 F C+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 305 Jacksonville W 71 - 65 71%
 Sat, Jan 17 350 North Florida W 87 - 77 83%
 Thu, Jan 22 320 @West Georgia W 75 - 74 52%
 Sat, Jan 24 279 @North Alabama L 71 - 73 42%
 Wed, Jan 28 202 @Queens L 77 - 83 28%
 Sat, Jan 31 253 Eastern Kentucky W 77 - 74 60%
 Wed, Feb 4 279 North Alabama W 74 - 70 64%
 Sat, Feb 7 167 @Lipscomb L 71 - 79 23%
 Thu, Feb 12 294 Bellarmine W 79 - 74 67%
 Sat, Feb 14 320 West Georgia W 78 - 71 73%
 Thu, Feb 19 345 @Stetson W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 80 28%
 Wed, Feb 25 180 @Austin Peay L 69 - 76 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 202 Queens L 79 - 80 49%
Totals 12 - 17 9 - 9 -6 -3 C- C- C -3 C- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.4 3.9 1.0 0.0 10.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 5.9 6.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.8 7.9 2.0 0.1 16.5 5th
6th 0.2 4.1 7.5 2.7 0.2 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 6.4 3.3 0.2 0.0 11.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.5 3.8 0.4 9.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 6.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 6.0 11.0 15.8 18.1 17.8 13.7 8.3 4.1 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 80.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 59.6% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 23.6% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 18.2% 18.2% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 1.4% 18.9% 18.9% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.1
13-5 4.1% 16.2% 16.2% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 3.5
12-6 8.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.7 0.3 0.6 7.5
11-7 13.7% 8.1% 8.1% 15.8 0.2 0.9 12.6
10-8 17.8% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2 16.6
9-9 18.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.7 17.4
8-10 15.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.4 15.4
7-11 11.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.8
6-12 6.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 5.9
5-13 2.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.8 94.6 0.0%