Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.4#317
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#264
Pace68.5#222
Improvement+4.0#8

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#293
First Shot-1.8#219
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#331
Layup/Dunks+0.1#171
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#74
Freethrows-1.5#268
Improvement+3.0#8

Defense
Total Defense-3.9#312
First Shot-5.4#333
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#101
Layups/Dunks-1.4#239
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#351
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+0.9#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.2% 4.4% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 10.6% 25.0% 8.8%
.500 or above in Conference 33.3% 45.0% 31.8%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.1% 1.4%
Last Place in Conference 13.6% 8.2% 14.3%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round1.6% 3.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Tennessee St. (Away) - 11.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 410 - 911 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina L 54-94 2%     0 - 1 -22.9 -14.5 -5.5
  Tue, Nov 11 25 @Arkansas L 56-93 2%     0 - 2 -19.8 -11.9 -5.8
  Sun, Nov 16 221 Samford L 77-84 OT 43%     0 - 3 -13.7 -5.9 -7.4
  Thu, Nov 20 123 @North Texas L 56-74 10%     0 - 4 -12.2 -9.8 -2.7
  Sun, Nov 23 240 Eastern Washington W 92-65 47%     1 - 4 +19.4 +11.3 +7.3
  Tue, Nov 25 329 Eastern Illinois W 81-60 65%     2 - 4 +8.6 +12.9 -2.2
  Sat, Nov 29 137 @East Tennessee St. L 63-76 11%    
  Wed, Dec 3 248 Arkansas Little Rock L 69-70 48%    
  Sun, Dec 7 308 @East Texas A&M L 68-71 37%    
  Sat, Dec 13 19 @Vanderbilt L 64-91 1%    
  Sun, Dec 21 42 @SMU L 66-89 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 164 Florida Gulf Coast L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Jan 3 344 Stetson W 76-70 70%    
  Thu, Jan 8 294 @Bellarmine L 73-77 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 72-78 29%    
  Thu, Jan 15 269 Jacksonville W 69-68 51%    
  Sat, Jan 17 341 North Florida W 83-77 70%    
  Thu, Jan 22 311 @West Georgia L 71-74 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 242 @North Alabama L 68-75 27%    
  Wed, Jan 28 210 @Queens L 73-81 23%    
  Sat, Jan 31 258 Eastern Kentucky L 75-76 50%    
  Wed, Feb 4 242 North Alabama L 71-72 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 176 @Lipscomb L 66-76 19%    
  Thu, Feb 12 294 Bellarmine W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Feb 14 311 West Georgia W 74-71 59%    
  Thu, Feb 19 344 @Stetson W 73-72 50%    
  Sat, Feb 21 164 @Florida Gulf Coast L 70-81 17%    
  Wed, Feb 25 165 @Austin Peay L 65-76 17%    
  Sat, Feb 28 210 Queens L 76-78 41%    
Projected Record 10 - 19 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.7 0.7 0.1 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.7 3.6 1.1 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.6 4.7 1.8 0.1 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.5 3.0 0.2 11.4 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 5.5 4.0 0.6 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 5.2 4.6 0.7 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.5 4.4 1.2 0.0 12.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.7 3.6 1.2 0.1 11.1 11th
12th 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.5 1.7 0.6 0.1 7.9 12th
Total 0.2 0.8 2.5 4.6 7.4 11.0 12.9 14.0 13.2 11.4 8.4 6.2 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 93.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 86.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 58.0% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 21.0% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 24.2% 24.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.3% 24.2% 24.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.0% 16.0% 16.0% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
13-5 2.0% 11.4% 11.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.8
12-6 3.7% 8.5% 8.5% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.4
11-7 6.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 5.9
10-8 8.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.1
9-9 11.4% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 11.2
8-10 13.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 13.1
7-11 14.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.9
6-12 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
5-13 11.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
3-15 4.6% 4.6
2-16 2.5% 2.5
1-17 0.8% 0.8
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 97.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%