Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -1.0 173
Results Rating -0.9 176
Consistency 0.17 278
Pace 69.3 155
Improvement +4.6 32

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 163 C C- C+ D C+
Defense C- 201 D C- B B- D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 297 C+ 60% 116 -1.7 243
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 290 D- 32% 337 -2.9 312
Three Pointers 50% 26 C+ 34% 154 +4.9 37
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 134 C +0.1 167
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 156
Second Chance D+ 27.2% 270 C+ 1.06 131 C- 0.29 226
Opponents' Steals C+ 8.8% 119
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 187
Turnovers C+ 16.1% 139
Freethrows D 0.27 299 D+ 70% 270 D 0.19 312
Total Offense C +0.1 163

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 175 C 11.0% 184
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 174 C- 6.1% 255
Three Pointers C+ 86% 149 C 0.9% 182
Total B- 61% 75 C+ 5.2% 129

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 310 D+ 62% 300 -1.4 123
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 361 B- 36% 109 -3.3 3
Three Pointers 54% 2 D+ 36% 281 +8.3 363
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 296 D+ +2.8 295
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 302
Second Chance B- 28.2% 94 D- 1.15 329 C- 0.32 220
Turnovers from Steals B+ 12.1% 30
Other Turnovers C 7.3% 181
Turnovers B 19.4% 47
Freethrows B- 0.27 90 C 72% 178 B- 0.20 95
Total Defense C- -1.0 201

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 320 D+ 7.9% 306
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 297 C+ 6.2% 93
Three Pointers D 89% 326 D 0.2% 330
Total F 68% 356 D 3.5% 330

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 172 17.0 124
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 135 0.20 270
Consistency 0.16 354 0.11 113
Improvement +5.4 4 -0.8 236

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 191 173 153
Results Rating Rank 208 177 132
Conference Record 14 - 4 15 - 3 15 - 3
Conference Finish 2 2 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 14
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26% 28% 23%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 23% 34% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round26% 28% 23%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Queens (Home) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 33 - 24 - 7
Quad 416 - 519 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 26 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 5% -24  0% 0 - 1 F -22 F -17 F B- F C -1 C- F B+
 Tue, Nov 11 15 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 3% -16  0% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -16 F C- A+ B- +3 C- A+ C-
 Sun, Nov 16 195 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 65% +3  62% 0 - 3 D- -12 D- -8 D D- D+ D+ -4 D B+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 141 @North Texas L 56 - 74 31% -5  17% 0 - 4 D- -14 F -13 D F F C- -2 B B D
 Sun, Nov 23 178 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 63% +20  98% 1 - 4 A +23 A- +10 A+ F+ C- A+ +12 A- C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 317 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 87% +16  96% 2 - 4 B- +8 A +11 A A+ C C -1 D C- C+
 Sat, Nov 29 135 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 30% -10  7% 2 - 5 F -19 F -17 F D+ C+ C -1 F A+ D
 Wed, Dec 3 303 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 84% +29  96% 3 - 5 A+ +27 C+ +2 B D- D+ A+ +24 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Dec 7 308 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 68% -1  30% 3 - 6 D- -13 F -12 C- F C+ C -0 B+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 16 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 3% -15  0% 3 - 7 B +11 C +1 C C+ A- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 21 31 @SMU L 82 - 99 5% -11  0% 3 - 8 C +1 A +11 A A- D- F -11 D F B
 Thu, Jan 1 257 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 76% -3  21% 4 - 8 1 - 0 D+ -6 A +13 B+ A A F -19 F D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 328 Stetson W 93 - 73 88% +13  88% 5 - 8 2 - 0 B- +6 A +12 B+ A D+ D -5 F D B+
 Thu, Jan 8 292 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 64% +0  43% 5 - 9 2 - 1 D -11 F -12 F C- B+ C+ +1 D D+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 287 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 62% -1  35% 5 - 10 2 - 2 D -8 D- -7 C+ F D- C- -2 F C+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 305 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 84% -5  19% 6 - 10 3 - 2 D -10 D- -7 C- F D C- -2 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 333 North Florida W 98 - 69 89% +23  95% 7 - 10 4 - 2 B+ +15 A- +10 A- C B B +4 C A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 312 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 69% +9  68% 8 - 10 5 - 2 A- +15 A- +11 A+ F B+ B +5 D- F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 199 @Queens W 100 - 90 44% -1  35% 9 - 10 6 - 2 B +11 A +14 A C- B+ D+ -4 F A C-
 Sat, Jan 31 287 Eastern Kentucky W 90 - 81 81% +8  98% 10 - 10 7 - 2 C -1 C- -1 C D A+ C -1 F+ A+ B
 Wed, Feb 4 342 North Alabama W 81 - 60 90% +7  81% 11 - 10 8 - 2 B- +6 C+ +2 B D+ C- B +5 C+ B+ B-
 Sat, Feb 7 197 @Lipscomb W 86 - 78 43% +9  98% 12 - 10 9 - 2 B +9 B+ +9 C B+ C+ C -0 F+ D+ A-
 Mon, Feb 9 342 @North Alabama W 72 - 65 78% -5  10% 13 - 10 10 - 2 C- -2 D -6 F+ C+ F B +4 F C- A+
 Wed, Feb 11 292 Bellarmine W 84 - 76 82% -2  36% 14 - 10 11 - 2 C- -3 C +1 D+ D+ A+ D+ -4 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 14 312 West Georgia W 79 - 62 85% +9  97% 15 - 10 12 - 2 B- +5 C- -1 D+ C- B- B+ +7 D+ B A-
 Thu, Feb 19 328 @Stetson W 88 - 76 74% +15  95% 16 - 10 13 - 2 C+ +4 A +12 A- C- C- D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Feb 21 257 @Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 75 OT 55% +1  53% 16 - 11 13 - 3 D+ -6 D- -8 F B C+ C+ +2 B+ D- F
 Wed, Feb 25 167 @Austin Peay W 93 - 88 36% -5  13% 17 - 11 14 - 3 B- +8 A+ +23 A+ A+ A F -15 F C A+
 Sat, Feb 28 199 Queens W 85 - 81 66%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 3 -1 C +0 C C C+ C- -1 C+ D+ D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D- C+ C 35% 28% 50% C+ C D+ C+ C- C+ D D+ D C- D+ B- D+ D+ 34% 13% 54% D D B- D- C- B B- C B-
1.09 60% 32% 34% 0 0 1.03 27% 1.1 .29 16% .27 70% .19 1.10 62% 36% 36% +3 +1 1.09 28% 1.1 .32 19% .27 72% .19
Nov
3		 North Carolina F F F D F 24% 29% 47% D+ F C- A+ B- F D- D D C F A+ C+ C 48% 12% 40% F+ C- D F F B+ C F D-
0.72 38% 13% 31% -14 -2 0.69 23% 1.2 .28 23% .15 67% .10 1.25 80% 0% 33% +6 +2 1.17 38% 1.5 .56 16% .35 82% .28
Nov
11		 Arkansas F C+ F+ F F 21% 12% 67% C F F+ A+ C- A+ A- C- B+ B- F B D C- 29% 16% 55% B- C- A+ C+ A+ C- C- F+ D+
0.75 58% 29% 8% -27 0 0.47 20% 1.6 .31 11% .32 67% .21 1.25 81% 33% 39% +10 0 1.21 24% 1.3 .30 11% .33 82% .27
Nov
16		 Samford D- B+ F C- D- 45% 24% 31% B+ D B- F D- D+ A- F C- D+ F A+ C- D 22% 14% 64% C D B- A B+ F A D A-
1.02 65% 14% 33% -3 0 0.97 30% 0.7 .21 15% .36 57% .20 1.12 85% 13% 34% +3 0 1.07 21% 0.9 .19 9% .26 72% .19
Nov
20		 North Texas F D- F C D- 37% 16% 47% B D C F F F A+ F A+ C- F A+ A+ B- 43% 25% 32% B+ B B- B- B D F F F
0.82 50% 17% 33% -7 +1 0.89 33% 0.5 .15 28% .64 56% .36 1.08 74% 18% 14% -8 0 0.86 31% 0.9 .29 15% .55 84% .46
Nov
23		 Eastern Washington A- B F A+ A+ 43% 4% 53% A- A+ C- F F+ C- F F F A+ A A+ C+ A 27% 10% 63% D+ A- F+ B C- A+ B B+ B+
1.28 65% 0% 54% +17 +3 1.42 30% 0.8 .24 17% .23 64% .15 0.90 46% 20% 33% -6 +1 0.92 36% 1.0 .36 31% .26 69% .18
Nov
25		 Eastern Illinois A A+ F B+ A 36% 6% 57% B A C A+ A+ C F F F C F C+ A+ D 33% 25% 42% D+ D A+ F C- C+ B F C
1.28 82% 0% 37% +9 +2 1.23 35% 1.8 .62 19% .25 62% .16 0.95 69% 33% 25% -3 -1 0.94 17% 1.6 .28 19% .23 92% .21
Nov
29		 East Tennessee St. F F F F+ F 17% 13% 70% D F F A+ D+ C+ F C F C F C F F 35% 9% 56% D F A+ B+ A+ D B+ A+ A+
0.79 44% 14% 29% -11 -1 0.80 13% 1.8 .24 18% .14 75% .10 1.12 74% 40% 40% +11 +1 1.26 13% 1.0 .13 14% .26 50% .13
Dec
3		 Arkansas Little Rock C+ A- B B- 33% 0% 67% B+ B C F D- D+ D C D A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 24% 39% F+ A+ B B B+ A+ B+ A+ A+
1.19 72% 39% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.7 .25 20% .24 71% .17 0.66 44% 17% 26% -15 -1 0.71 26% 0.9 .24 29% .18 22% .04
Dec
7		 East Texas A&M F B F F D- 61% 4% 35% A+ C- F D- F C+ F+ F F C D- A+ A+ A- 29% 10% 60% C- B+ B+ F F C+ F F F
0.91 63% 0% 25% -3 +4 1.04 11% 1.0 .11 16% .24 33% .08 1.01 64% 20% 24% -9 +1 0.85 19% 2.1 .42 19% .41 76% .31
Dec
13		 Vanderbilt C B- F D+ C 22% 22% 56% C- C D+ A+ C+ A- A D A- A B+ F A+ A+ 31% 6% 63% D- A+ C F F A D+ D D+
0.96 58% 25% 30% -6 -1 0.87 23% 1.2 .28 16% .43 70% .30 1.10 56% 67% 24% -8 +1 0.88 33% 1.6 .54 17% .35 82% .29
Dec
21		 SMU A D- C A+ A+ 31% 27% 42% C- A B A A- D- B+ C B F F F B+ D 36% 12% 53% F D F F F B A+ D- A+
1.16 50% 36% 50% +7 -1 1.13 34% 1.2 .40 21% .31 71% .22 1.41 86% 71% 32% +12 +1 1.29 55% 1.3 .72 17% .17 80% .14
Jan
1		 Florida Gulf Coast A B+ F+ A+ B+ 37% 20% 43% C- B+ B- A+ A A C- B+ C+ F F C+ F F 27% 16% 57% D- F A+ F D+ D+ B F C-
1.33 67% 30% 43% +7 0 1.16 34% 1.4 .47 11% .35 80% .28 1.29 79% 38% 45% +15 0 1.31 19% 1.8 .35 16% .22 92% .20
Jan
3		 Stetson A A+ F B+ B+ 40% 8% 52% B+ B+ A C+ A D+ A+ B+ A+ D D F F+ F 24% 13% 62% D+ F D- C D B+ F B- F
1.37 80% 0% 38% +9 +2 1.24 42% 1.2 .52 16% .40 78% .32 1.07 64% 50% 39% +8 0 1.18 30% 1.0 .30 22% .40 67% .26
Jan
8		 Bellarmine F F F F F 25% 14% 61% C F D+ C+ C- B+ F+ A D C+ F D+ D D- 34% 9% 57% C+ D B F D+ C A- A A
1.05 47% 25% 28% -10 0 0.81 32% 1.2 .38 12% .25 81% .20 1.13 74% 40% 38% +8 +1 1.21 16% 1.6 .26 16% .23 71% .16
Jan
10		 Eastern Kentucky D- D A+ B- C 34% 15% 51% B- C+ C F F D- F C F+ C- D A+ F F 15% 11% 75% D F B D C+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.06 56% 75% 37% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.3 .11 18% .26 73% .19 1.12 63% 17% 41% +7 0 1.15 28% 1.2 .33 18% .12 57% .07
Jan
15		 Jacksonville D- B- A+ D- C 43% 25% 33% D C- C F F D B+ B- B+ C- A+ F A+ A+ 34% 13% 53% D A+ F B- F+ F D+ D- D
1.05 65% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 31% 0.5 .16 17% .43 71% .31 1.02 31% 50% 24% -16 +1 0.72 39% 1.0 .39 10% .32 76% .25
Jan
17		 North Florida A- B+ A+ A- A- 33% 11% 56% C A- B- D+ C B C A B- B B+ F C C- 24% 14% 63% B C A A+ A+ B- F A+ D+
1.39 67% 67% 39% +10 +1 1.24 39% 1.1 .45 10% .28 78% .22 0.98 50% 57% 34% +1 0 1.04 19% 0.6 .11 20% .32 67% .21
Jan
22		 West Georgia A- B B- A+ A+ 44% 13% 43% C A+ F A+ F B+ F C+ F B C+ F A- D+ 40% 19% 42% F D- F F F A+ F B- F
1.28 67% 43% 52% +16 +1 1.37 11% 1.3 .15 12% .19 73% .13 0.96 53% 63% 28% -1 0 1.00 38% 1.5 .58 33% .40 67% .26
Jan
28		 Queens A A+ A A A+ 29% 20% 51% D A F A+ C- B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ F F F F 23% 9% 68% C+ F A+ D A C- C- B C
1.35 80% 50% 42% +15 -1 1.31 22% 1.5 .33 12% .52 82% .43 1.22 75% 60% 44% +17 0 1.36 17% 1.2 .20 15% .33 71% .24
Jan
31		 Eastern Kentucky C- C- A+ C+ C 37% 15% 47% B- C F A D A+ B- F F C B A+ F D- 31% 4% 65% F F+ A A+ A+ B F C- F
1.19 59% 67% 36% +6 +1 1.15 21% 1.2 .26 8% .37 50% .19 1.07 50% 0% 41% +3 +2 1.12 24% 0.8 .19 20% .43 73% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
4		 North Alabama C+ B+ F A B 39% 7% 54% B- B D B- D+ C- F B- F B A C+ C+ B- 43% 12% 45% D C+ A+ D B+ B- C+ A+ A-
1.22 67% 0% 41% +6 +2 1.19 29% 1.2 .35 15% .16 78% .12 0.90 43% 33% 32% -9 +1 0.88 22% 1.1 .24 20% .30 50% .15
Feb
7		 Lipscomb B+ A+ D D+ B 25% 40% 36% F C B B- B+ C+ A- C+ A- C F C F F 22% 13% 65% A- F+ D- C D+ A- F A F
1.18 92% 33% 32% +5 -3 1.06 36% 1.1 .38 17% .35 71% .25 1.07 70% 33% 40% +8 0 1.17 29% 1.0 .29 21% .38 68% .26
Feb
9		 North Alabama D D+ A+ F F 39% 9% 52% B- F+ D- A+ C+ F A+ C- A+ B C F B- D- 58% 8% 34% F F C+ D C- A+ F F+ F
1.07 56% 75% 25% -5 +2 0.96 28% 1.4 .41 19% .42 74% .31 0.96 55% 67% 31% -1 +3 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 28% .47 74% .35
Feb
11		 Bellarmine C D C B D- 41% 10% 49% B+ D+ D B- D+ A+ A F B D+ D+ F F F 30% 9% 61% B- F B- D- C A+ A+ F A+
1.28 57% 40% 40% +4 +2 1.14 30% 1.2 .36 8% .40 67% .26 1.16 64% 50% 50% +18 +1 1.39 18% 1.3 .23 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
14		 West Georgia C- D F B+ D 50% 10% 40% B D+ B- D- C- B- D A+ C B+ B D C- C- 41% 29% 31% F+ D+ B+ B- B A- C+ A+ A-
1.15 54% 20% 38% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.8 .29 13% .28 82% .23 0.90 50% 43% 33% -2 -1 0.96 25% 1.0 .25 20% .26 50% .13
Feb
19		 Stetson A A A+ B+ A- 31% 15% 54% C A- B+ F C- C- A C+ A D- F A+ F F 20% 22% 59% B+ F B+ F F A+ A+ F A-
1.33 73% 57% 38% +11 0 1.25 40% 0.9 .37 15% .36 75% .27 1.15 78% 20% 52% +16 -1 1.30 21% 1.8 .38 24% .16 88% .14
Feb
21		 Florida Gulf Coast D- F+ F D- F 34% 15% 51% C F D A+ B C+ F+ B D C+ D+ A A+ A 40% 17% 43% F B+ B F D- F B+ A+ A+
0.99 50% 25% 30% -8 0 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .30 78% .23 1.04 63% 30% 23% -7 +1 0.90 26% 1.5 .38 11% .20 54% .11
Feb
25		 Austin Peay A+ A A+ A+ A+ 41% 4% 55% A A+ F A+ A+ A C A+ B+ F D- A+ F F 50% 2% 48% F F F A+ C A+ F F F
1.37 71% 50% 43% +13 +2 1.33 20% 2.0 .40 13% .31 83% .26 1.30 64% 0% 57% +18 +3 1.45 36% 0.9 .32 22% .40 86% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 22.8 22.8 1st
2nd 33.9 43.4 77.2 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 33.9 66.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 34.4% 22.8    22.8
14-4 0.0%
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 22.8% 22.8 22.8



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 66.1% 28.3% 28.3% 14.3 0.0 1.3 10.0 7.2 0.2 47.4
14-4 33.9% 22.9% 22.9% 14.8 0.1 2.2 4.8 0.6 26.1
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.5% 26.5% 0.0% 14.5 73.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 18.7% 100.0% 14.3 0.1 7.0 53.5 38.6 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 14.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 21.0%
Lose Out 8.7%