Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +19.9 #12
Expected Predictive Rating +16.0 #29
Pace 73.4 #71
Improvement +2.8 #52

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #17 B- A+ C+ B+ A
Defense #7 A+ A+ C- C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #35 1.34 #25 +8.0 #10
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #345 0.97 #13 -2.7 #311
Three Pointers 45% #117 0.84 #342 -2.0 #256
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #94 +3.3 #94
Freethrows 20.4 #42 73% #167 14.9 #59
Second Chance 43.5% #2 1.09 #120 0.48 #7
Turnovers 15.7% #125
Total Offense +9.5 #17

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #232 0.92 #5 +5.5 #31
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #3 0.67 #67 -3.0 #351
Three Pointers 31% #362 1.02 #198 +4.8 #25
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #15 +7.3 #15
Freethrows 17.0 #175 69% #46 11.7 #232
Second Chance 21.4% #3 0.69 #2 0.15 #2
Turnovers 16.0% #210
Total Defense +10.3 #7

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.6% #15 -3.2% #14
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #141 -11.4% #21
Possession Length 15.5 #40 18.1 #295
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #10 0.11 #22
Improvement +2.9 #33 -0.2 #198

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.8% 1.4% 0.4%
#1 Seed 6.5% 11.2% 3.7%
Top 2 Seed 20.8% 31.7% 14.3%
Top 4 Seed 69.4% 81.6% 62.1%
Top 6 Seed 92.6% 97.1% 89.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.6% 99.9% 99.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.5% 99.9% 99.2%
Average Seed 3.9 3.3 4.2
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.7% 98.0%
Conference Champion 34.0% 56.2% 21.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round99.5% 99.9% 99.3%
Second Round91.3% 94.3% 89.6%
Sweet Sixteen59.0% 64.5% 55.7%
Elite Eight30.2% 35.1% 27.3%
Final Four15.1% 18.1% 13.3%
Championship Game7.2% 8.8% 6.2%
National Champion3.2% 4.4% 2.4%

Next Game: Vanderbilt (Away) - 37.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b7 - 310 - 9
Quad 26 - 116 - 10
Quad 32 - 018 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 2 Arizona L 87 - 93 34% -1  0 - 1 +18 +14 A A C +5 A- A+ B
 Thu, Nov 6 350 North Florida W 104 - 64 100% +21  1 - 1 +24 +7 F A+ F +12 A+ C+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 117 Florida St. W 78 - 76 96% +1  2 - 1 +2 -7 D- F C- +9 A+ A+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 35 Miami (FL) W 82 - 68 71% +7  3 - 1 +28 +8 B+ B- B+ +19 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 241 Merrimack W 80 - 45 99% +24  4 - 1 +27 +10 D- A+ C +20 A+ A+ B
 Thu, Nov 27 45 TCU L 80 - 84 78% +2  4 - 2 +8 +8 D+ A+ F -0 B A- F
 Fri, Nov 28 68 Providence W 90 - 78 86% +9  5 - 2 +20 +13 D+ A+ A+ +6 B+ A+ C-
 Tue, Dec 2 7 @Duke L 66 - 67 35% -5  5 - 3 +23 +9 C A+ C +13 A A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 9 4 Connecticut L 73 - 77 45% -2  5 - 4 +17 +14 A+ D+ B- +3 B- A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 60 George Washington W 80 - 70 84% +8  6 - 4 +19 +6 A+ D C +13 A+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 360 St. Francis (PA) W 102 - 61 100% +25  7 - 4 +23 +19 A+ A+ D- +3 B- A+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 215 Colgate W 90 - 60 98% +17  8 - 4 +24 +20 A- A+ C +6 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 204 Dartmouth W 94 - 72 98% +21  9 - 4 +16 +13 B- A+ F +2 C A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 53 @Missouri L 74 - 76 74% -1  9 - 5 0 - 1 +11 +8 C C- A+ +3 B- A+ F
 Tue, Jan 6 23 Georgia W 92 - 77 75% +6  10 - 5 1 - 1 +28 +15 A A+ B+ +11 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 10 20 Tennessee W 91 - 67 73% +10  11 - 5 2 - 1 +37 +21 A+ A+ A+ +15 A A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 54 @Oklahoma W 96 - 79 74% +16  12 - 5 3 - 1 +30 +26 A- A+ A+ +4 C+ A- A-
 Sat, Jan 17 9 @Vanderbilt L 79 - 82 37%
 Tue, Jan 20 44 LSU W 83 - 72 85%
 Sat, Jan 24 27 Auburn W 84 - 76 77%
 Wed, Jan 28 69 @South Carolina W 78 - 69 80%
 Sun, Feb 1 14 Alabama W 90 - 85 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 40 @Texas A&M W 84 - 80 64%
 Wed, Feb 11 23 @Georgia W 86 - 85 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 25 Kentucky W 80 - 73 75%
 Tue, Feb 17 69 South Carolina W 81 - 66 91%
 Sat, Feb 21 65 @Mississippi W 78 - 70 78%
 Wed, Feb 25 41 @Texas W 82 - 77 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 26 Arkansas W 87 - 80 76%
 Tue, Mar 3 66 Mississippi St. W 83 - 69 91%
 Sat, Mar 7 25 @Kentucky W 77 - 76 55%
Totals 22 - 9 13 - 5 +20 +10 B- A+ C+ +10 A+ A+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.3 10.7 10.9 6.0 1.4 34.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.7 10.9 8.7 2.9 0.4 28.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 6.9 4.7 0.8 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 3.7 0.5 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.4 2.1 0.9 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 6.0 11.0 16.5 20.5 20.2 13.8 6.4 1.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 94.4% 6.0    5.3 0.7
15-3 79.1% 10.9    7.7 3.1 0.2
14-4 52.8% 10.7    4.8 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.1% 4.3    1.0 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.1
12-6 3.8% 0.6    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.0% 34.0 20.2 10.3 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 1.4% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.4% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.8% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 2.5 2.0 5.1 4.9 1.8 0.1 100.0%
14-4 20.2% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 3.1 1.0 4.0 8.5 5.5 1.2 0.1 100.0%
13-5 20.5% 100.0% 24.5% 75.5% 3.7 0.3 1.6 6.5 8.1 3.4 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 16.5% 100.0% 19.0% 81.0% 4.4 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.8 5.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 11.0% 100.0% 12.6% 87.3% 5.2 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.7 3.0 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 6.0% 99.7% 9.4% 90.3% 6.1 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 2.8% 97.1% 8.3% 88.8% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.8%
8-10 1.0% 89.3% 3.9% 85.4% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 88.9%
7-11 0.3% 48.1% 3.8% 44.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 46.0%
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.6% 23.2% 76.4% 3.9 0.4 99.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 54.3 43.5 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.6 52.2 37.3 9.0 1.5