Florida
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.1#17
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#51
Pace77.7#33
Improvement-0.2#190

Offense
Total Offense+7.9#33
First Shot+3.3#81
After Offensive Rebound+4.7#9
Layup/Dunks+4.5#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#312
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#248
Freethrows+2.9#46
Improvement-0.4#221

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#8
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#74
Layups/Dunks-0.6#201
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#238
3 Pt Jumpshots+12.1#1
Freethrows-3.5#340
Improvement+0.2#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.2% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.6% 6.4% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 16.0% 18.0% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 44.0% 47.7% 27.9%
Top 6 Seed 66.6% 70.1% 51.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.8% 91.6% 81.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.3% 90.3% 79.8%
Average Seed 5.0 4.8 5.8
.500 or above 95.0% 96.5% 88.5%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 87.1% 79.5%
Conference Champion 19.6% 21.0% 13.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four3.5% 3.1% 5.4%
First Round88.4% 90.5% 79.4%
Second Round71.5% 74.3% 59.1%
Sweet Sixteen40.3% 42.8% 29.6%
Elite Eight19.7% 21.2% 13.0%
Final Four9.1% 9.8% 5.7%
Championship Game4.1% 4.5% 2.2%
National Champion1.8% 2.0% 0.9%

Next Game: Providence (Neutral) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b5 - 38 - 9
Quad 26 - 215 - 11
Quad 32 - 017 - 11
Quad 45 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 11 Arizona L 87-93 44%     0 - 1 +12.7 +10.8 +2.8
  Thu, Nov 6 341 North Florida W 104-64 99%     1 - 1 +25.9 +9.0 +12.0
  Tue, Nov 11 55 Florida St. W 78-76 84%     2 - 1 +8.7 -0.8 +9.2
  Sun, Nov 16 44 Miami (FL) W 82-68 70%     3 - 1 +25.8 +8.6 +15.9
  Fri, Nov 21 255 Merrimack W 80-45 98%     4 - 1 +26.9 +9.2 +20.0
  Thu, Nov 27 51 TCU L 80-84 74%     4 - 2 +6.3 +7.1 -0.4
  Fri, Nov 28 75 Providence W 91-81 81%    
  Tue, Dec 2 2 @Duke L 73-82 21%    
  Tue, Dec 9 8 Connecticut L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Dec 13 62 George Washington W 88-80 78%    
  Wed, Dec 17 359 St. Francis (PA) W 94-60 99.9%   
  Sun, Dec 21 182 Colgate W 87-65 98%    
  Mon, Dec 29 299 Dartmouth W 94-66 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 33 @Missouri W 81-80 53%    
  Tue, Jan 6 34 Georgia W 90-83 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 14 Tennessee W 78-76 58%    
  Tue, Jan 13 52 @Oklahoma W 83-79 65%    
  Sat, Jan 17 19 @Vanderbilt L 81-83 43%    
  Tue, Jan 20 40 LSU W 85-77 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 23 Auburn W 83-78 68%    
  Wed, Jan 28 88 @South Carolina W 79-71 75%    
  Sun, Feb 1 10 Alabama W 89-88 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 60 @Texas A&M W 84-79 66%    
  Wed, Feb 11 34 @Georgia W 87-86 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 16 Kentucky W 82-80 59%    
  Tue, Feb 17 88 South Carolina W 82-68 89%    
  Sat, Feb 21 49 @Mississippi W 78-74 63%    
  Wed, Feb 25 36 @Texas W 79-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 25 Arkansas W 83-77 70%    
  Tue, Mar 3 84 Mississippi St. W 85-72 88%    
  Sat, Mar 7 16 @Kentucky L 79-83 38%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.4 5.8 3.7 1.8 0.3 19.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 6.2 4.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 5.5 4.2 1.1 0.0 12.5 3rd
4th 0.6 4.1 4.3 0.8 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.9 1.2 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.1 2.4 0.1 7.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.5 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.1 1.0 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 1.7 0.1 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 2.2 0.5 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.2 3.8 6.4 8.7 11.3 13.7 13.6 13.6 11.4 7.4 3.9 1.8 0.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 99.4% 1.8    1.7 0.1
16-2 95.3% 3.7    3.2 0.5 0.0
15-3 78.5% 5.8    3.8 1.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 47.6% 5.4    2.0 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
13-5 17.3% 2.4    0.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.6% 19.6 11.4 5.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 100.0% 66.0% 34.0% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.8% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.9% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.9 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.4% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 2.3 1.6 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.4% 100.0% 22.3% 77.7% 3.0 1.0 2.9 3.9 2.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.6% 100.0% 17.2% 82.8% 3.8 0.3 1.5 4.1 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.2 100.0%
12-6 13.6% 100.0% 12.7% 87.2% 4.7 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.8 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.7% 99.7% 7.4% 92.3% 5.6 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.2 3.7 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.7%
10-8 11.3% 97.9% 5.2% 92.8% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.7 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 97.8%
9-9 8.7% 89.6% 3.3% 86.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.9 89.2%
8-10 6.4% 62.4% 1.2% 61.1% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 0.1 2.4 61.9%
7-11 3.8% 28.5% 1.7% 26.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.1 2.7 27.3%
6-12 2.2% 8.3% 0.3% 8.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0 8.0%
5-13 1.2% 1.2
4-14 0.5% 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 89.8% 12.9% 76.9% 5.0 5.6 10.4 13.7 14.3 11.9 10.7 7.6 5.5 3.7 3.1 3.0 0.2 10.2 88.3%