George Mason
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.7#74
Expected Predictive Rating+12.0#50
Pace63.1#332
Improvement+0.5#132

Offense
Total Offense+4.1#77
First Shot+4.6#58
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#204
Layup/Dunks+0.4#158
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#243
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#92
Freethrows+2.7#50
Improvement+1.2#71

Defense
Total Defense+3.7#75
First Shot+3.4#78
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#166
Layups/Dunks+4.7#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#323
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#88
Freethrows-1.8#286
Improvement-0.7#254
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 19.9% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.4% 7.1% 2.9%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 11.1
.500 or above 98.8% 99.2% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 87.3% 77.5%
Conference Champion 16.5% 17.7% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
First Four3.3% 3.5% 1.9%
First Round16.9% 18.1% 10.3%
Second Round5.8% 6.4% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: James Madison (Home) - 83.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 2
Quad 24 - 35 - 5
Quad 39 - 214 - 8
Quad 410 - 124 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 225 Wofford W 70-46 91%     1 - 0 +17.2 -2.4 +21.4
  Fri, Nov 7 105 Winthrop W 96-90 73%     2 - 0 +7.3 +14.6 -7.9
  Sat, Nov 15 354 New Hampshire W 61-44 98%     3 - 0 +1.1 -13.7 +15.9
  Tue, Nov 18 269 Jacksonville W 79-57 93%     4 - 0 +13.2 +9.7 +5.1
  Mon, Nov 24 207 Ohio W 92-69 84%     5 - 0 +20.0 +20.2 +0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 111 Florida Atlantic W 74-65 66%     6 - 0 +12.5 +13.9 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 29 147 James Madison W 77-66 84%    
  Tue, Dec 2 161 Cornell W 82-71 86%    
  Sat, Dec 6 63 @Virginia Tech L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Dec 13 216 Old Dominion W 77-63 91%    
  Sun, Dec 21 301 Loyola Maryland W 78-59 95%    
  Sun, Dec 28 223 Penn W 81-66 91%    
  Wed, Dec 31 214 @La Salle W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Jan 3 106 Rhode Island W 74-68 72%    
  Wed, Jan 7 212 @Fordham W 70-62 77%    
  Sat, Jan 10 53 Virginia Commonwealth W 71-70 51%    
  Tue, Jan 13 265 @Loyola Chicago W 73-63 82%    
  Mon, Jan 19 62 George Washington W 77-75 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 106 @Rhode Island W 71-70 52%    
  Wed, Jan 28 135 Davidson W 72-63 78%    
  Sat, Jan 31 119 @St. Bonaventure W 68-66 57%    
  Wed, Feb 4 126 Duquesne W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 7 175 Saint Joseph's W 78-66 86%    
  Tue, Feb 10 115 @Richmond W 72-70 55%    
  Fri, Feb 13 62 @George Washington L 74-78 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 78 Dayton W 69-66 62%    
  Wed, Feb 25 175 @Saint Joseph's W 75-69 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 119 St. Bonaventure W 71-63 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Mar 7 50 Saint Louis W 74-73 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.2 5.4 3.6 1.6 0.3 16.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 5.6 5.5 2.0 0.3 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.3 5.2 1.3 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.3 1.3 0.1 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.2 1.7 0.1 10.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.8 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.5 2.2 0.3 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.2 6.2 8.9 11.6 13.2 14.2 13.3 11.2 7.5 3.9 1.6 0.3 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
16-2 93.5% 3.6    2.9 0.7 0.0
15-3 72.1% 5.4    3.3 1.8 0.3 0.0
14-4 37.7% 4.2    1.4 1.9 0.7 0.2
13-5 9.6% 1.3    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 9.7 4.9 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 98.0% 51.5% 46.5% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8%
17-1 1.6% 79.7% 37.4% 42.3% 7.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 67.6%
16-2 3.9% 65.9% 32.5% 33.4% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 1.3 49.5%
15-3 7.5% 44.7% 24.4% 20.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 0.1 4.1 26.8%
14-4 11.2% 32.2% 22.7% 9.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.4 0.4 7.6 12.3%
13-5 13.3% 23.1% 18.4% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 0.5 10.3 5.7%
12-6 14.2% 14.7% 13.2% 1.5% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 12.1 1.8%
11-7 13.2% 8.4% 8.1% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 12.1 0.3%
10-8 11.6% 6.0% 5.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 11.0 0.1%
9-9 8.9% 3.1% 3.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.7
8-10 6.2% 1.8% 1.8% 12.4 0.1 0.0 6.1
7-11 4.2% 1.0% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
6-12 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 2.1
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.4% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.5% 12.9% 5.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 1.5 2.9 9.3 2.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 81.5 6.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 3.4 14.3 17.9 25.0 17.9 10.7 14.3