Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 #230
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #182
Pace 76.5 #32
Improvement +0.2 #172

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #169 C- C- B B- B+
Defense #287 D D- B F D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #132 1.02 #322 -1.9 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #331 0.91 #28 -2.1 #284
Three Pointers 48% #57 0.95 #258 +1.9 #121
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #229 -2.1 #229
Freethrows 19.6 #77 72% #216 14.1 #94
Second Chance 27.4% #269 1.10 #118 0.30 #224
Turnovers 14.9% #84
Total Offense +0.0 #169

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #54 1.24 #280 -4.7 #327
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #317 0.81 #271 +1.4 #87
Three Pointers 41% #196 1.01 #178 +0.2 #170
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #277 -3.1 #277
Freethrows 21.0 #332 74% #263 15.6 #34
Second Chance 37.0% #349 1.06 #207 0.39 #326
Turnovers 18.4% #75
Total Defense -3.6 #287

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #42 2.0% #338
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.3% #274 4.1% #260
Possession Length 16.0 #60 16.7 #83
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #252 0.20 #284
Improvement +0.4 #155 -0.2 #199

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.9% 7.3% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.7 14.9
.500 or above 87.6% 93.3% 77.2%
.500 or above in Conference 86.5% 92.6% 75.5%
Conference Champion 9.6% 12.6% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.8% 7.2% 3.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 64.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 7
Quad 414 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 262 @East Carolina L 89 - 92 46% -2  0 - 1 -6 +6 C- B+ C -11 D F F
 Sat, Nov 8 218 UNC Asheville W 93 - 90 59% -1  1 - 1 -3 +5 C+ F A+ -8 F F A
 Tue, Nov 11 201 @Florida Gulf Coast W 95 - 94 34% +3  2 - 1 +2 +16 A+ D- B -15 C F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 111 @Georgia Tech L 66 - 68 16% +1  2 - 2 +5 -6 F B F +11 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 117 @Florida St. L 72 - 98 19% -14  2 - 3 -20 -11 F F C+ -5 D B- D+
 Mon, Nov 24 209 Youngstown St. L 61 - 67 47% -4  2 - 4 -9 -10 F F C +1 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 332 Texas San Antonio L 64 - 77 75% +1  2 - 5 -24 -14 F C- C- -9 C F F
 Sat, Nov 29 301 Houston Christian W 80 - 62 76% +6  3 - 5 +7 +4 C C A+ +3 C+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 3 234 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 69 63% +4  4 - 5 +1 +8 A B- C -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 362 @Gardner-Webb W 88 - 84 82% +3  5 - 5 -9 +3 D F A -13 F D C
 Sat, Dec 13 320 @West Georgia W 91 - 85 61% +9  6 - 5 -0 +11 C A+ C -12 F F A+
 Thu, Dec 18 290 Georgia St. W 90 - 67 74% +8  7 - 5 1 - 0 +13 +18 D A A+ -5 F A- B+
 Sat, Dec 20 213 James Madison W 96 - 92 OT 59% -3  8 - 5 2 - 0 -2 +8 D C- A+ -10 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 268 @Coastal Carolina W 82 - 81 OT 48% +3  9 - 5 3 - 0 -2 +3 D B C -5 B+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 3 244 @Old Dominion W 93 - 86 43% +12  10 - 5 4 - 0 +5 +7 B C B- -3 A- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 190 @South Alabama L 71 - 87 32% -9  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -2 F F A -12 F B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 244 Old Dominion W 83 - 79 65%
 Sat, Jan 17 268 Coastal Carolina W 81 - 76 69%
 Thu, Jan 22 133 Arkansas St. L 85 - 87 42%
 Sat, Jan 24 125 Troy L 78 - 81 40%
 Thu, Jan 29 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 80 74%
 Sat, Jan 31 315 @Louisiana W 74 - 71 60%
 Wed, Feb 4 261 Texas St. W 80 - 75 67%
 Wed, Feb 11 223 Appalachian St. W 74 - 71 60%
 Sat, Feb 14 171 Marshall W 82 - 81 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 290 @Georgia St. W 79 - 78 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 223 @Appalachian St. L 71 - 74 38%
 Wed, Feb 25 213 @James Madison L 76 - 80 36%
 Fri, Feb 27 171 @Marshall L 79 - 85 30%
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -4 +0 C- C- B -4 D D- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 9.6 1st
2nd 0.5 3.9 6.0 2.6 0.3 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 4.1 8.2 3.0 0.4 15.9 3rd
4th 0.1 2.3 7.8 4.0 0.3 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.2 5.0 0.4 12.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 6.2 0.9 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 5.1 2.0 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.8 3.1 0.2 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.9 0.7 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.2 1.6 1.2 0.1 3.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 8.1 12.6 17.1 18.3 16.9 11.6 6.6 2.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0 0.0
15-3 87.9% 2.5    1.7 0.7 0.0
14-4 55.4% 3.6    1.5 1.8 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.6% 2.3    0.3 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.6% 9.6 4.3 3.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.7% 27.6% 27.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
15-3 2.8% 23.8% 23.8% 14.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.1
14-4 6.6% 18.6% 18.6% 14.6 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.0 5.3
13-5 11.6% 12.5% 12.5% 14.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.2 10.1
12-6 16.9% 7.7% 7.7% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 15.6
11-7 18.3% 3.1% 3.1% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 17.8
10-8 17.1% 1.7% 1.7% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 16.8
9-9 12.6% 0.7% 0.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 12.5
8-10 8.1% 0.6% 0.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.0
7-11 3.8% 3.8
6-12 1.3% 1.3
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 14.7 94.2 0.0%