Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.2 #91
Expected Predictive Rating +4.0 #106
Pace 66.3 #259
Improvement +1.6 #100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 B- C B- D+ C-
Defense #74 B B+ C C+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 1.31 #43 +1.3 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #155 0.78 #139 +0.8 #138
Three Pointers 42% #159 1.00 #202 +0.4 #163
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #111 +2.5 #111
Freethrows 17.1 #205 67% #328 11.4 #261
Second Chance 28.5% #243 1.14 #73 0.33 #156
Turnovers 15.6% #117
Total Offense +2.3 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 1.17 #189 +1.6 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #33 0.64 #37 -1.0 #256
Three Pointers 38% #271 0.98 #143 +2.3 #95
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #81 +3.0 #85
Freethrows 17.8 #210 65% #3 11.6 #240
Second Chance 26.2% #46 0.96 #82 0.25 #37
Turnovers 16.9% #165
Total Defense +3.9 #74

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #230 -2.1% #38
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #92 -4.0% #105
Possession Length 18.4 #283 17.0 #141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #311 0.15 #110
Improvement -0.2 #196 +1.8 #78

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 20.6% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 98.9% 99.5% 97.2%
.500 or above in Conference 93.6% 96.4% 86.4%
Conference Champion 16.5% 19.9% 7.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round19.2% 20.6% 15.7%
Second Round3.3% 3.6% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 71.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 23 - 33 - 5
Quad 39 - 411 - 10
Quad 410 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 178 @Ohio L 68 - 72 67% -2  0 - 1 -2 -5 D F C +2 C- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 193 Cornell W 76 - 65 85% +4  1 - 1 +6 -8 F D F +14 A+ B F
 Fri, Nov 14 47 USC L 67 - 87 31% -12  1 - 2 -9 +0 F A- B- -9 C C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 264 @Long Beach St. W 82 - 80 80% +4  2 - 2 -1 +10 D F A+ -11 F C F
 Sun, Nov 23 268 Coastal Carolina W 94 - 42 92% +30  3 - 2 +43 +13 A+ D+ A+ +27 A+ A+ C
 Thu, Nov 27 170 Charlotte W 79 - 69 75% +10  4 - 2 +9 +8 B- C+ A+ +1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 147 Furman W 72 - 65 70% +4  5 - 2 +8 +3 C A+ C +5 C A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 253 Eastern Kentucky W 89 - 78 91% +9  6 - 2 +3 +8 A A+ D- -6 D+ C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 349 Chicago St. W 95 - 53 97% +30  7 - 2 +26 +18 A+ B C+ +10 A+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 28 Utah St. L 78 - 83 20% -6  7 - 3 +10 +15 A+ A+ F -5 D C- A+
 Thu, Dec 18 126 @Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 55% -0  8 - 3 1 - 0 +12 +7 B- A+ D+ +5 C+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 207 Indiana St. W 85 - 65 87% +15  9 - 3 2 - 0 +14 +13 A+ F A+ +2 C A+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 165 @Drake W 73 - 56 65% +8  10 - 3 3 - 0 +19 +5 A+ F F +15 A+ B D+
 Thu, Jan 1 251 Evansville W 73 - 47 90% +14  11 - 3 4 - 0 +18 -3 C F A+ +20 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 184 @Valparaiso L 71 - 77 68% -5  11 - 4 4 - 1 -5 +6 D+ B A -11 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 160 Illinois-Chicago L 59 - 63 OT 81% -1  11 - 5 4 - 2 -7 -13 F D+ B+ +6 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 14 207 @Indiana St. W 76 - 70 71%
 Sat, Jan 17 114 Bradley W 74 - 69 70%
 Wed, Jan 21 107 Northern Iowa W 65 - 60 68%
 Sun, Jan 25 79 @Belmont L 74 - 78 35%
 Wed, Jan 28 89 @Murray St. L 77 - 80 38%
 Tue, Feb 3 126 Southern Illinois W 75 - 68 75%
 Fri, Feb 6 165 Drake W 75 - 65 82%
 Mon, Feb 9 251 @Evansville W 73 - 65 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 184 Valparaiso W 75 - 64 84%
 Sun, Feb 15 160 @Illinois-Chicago W 71 - 68 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 89 Murray St. W 80 - 77 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 114 @Bradley L 71 - 72 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 107 @Northern Iowa L 62 - 63 47%
 Sun, Mar 1 79 Belmont W 77 - 75 57%
Totals 20 - 10 13 - 7 +6 +2 B- C B- +4 B B+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.5 5.8 5.3 2.2 0.4 16.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.6 9.2 5.5 1.3 0.1 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 5.7 9.6 4.3 0.4 0.0 20.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.3 8.3 3.7 0.3 17.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.3 2.6 0.2 12.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.2 1.5 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.2 7.8 12.7 17.4 18.4 16.2 11.8 6.6 2.3 0.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-3 97.8% 2.2    2.0 0.2
16-4 80.2% 5.3    3.7 1.5 0.1
15-5 49.3% 5.8    2.4 2.8 0.7 0.0
14-6 15.3% 2.5    0.4 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.5% 16.5 8.9 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.4% 46.8% 43.0% 3.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6.7%
17-3 2.3% 36.3% 35.8% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.2 1.4 0.7%
16-4 6.6% 35.0% 34.9% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 1.1 1.2 0.0 4.3 0.1%
15-5 11.8% 28.0% 28.0% 11.8 0.9 2.2 0.1 8.5
14-6 16.2% 24.6% 24.6% 12.0 0.5 3.1 0.4 0.0 12.2
13-7 18.4% 18.7% 18.7% 12.1 0.3 2.5 0.7 0.0 14.9
12-8 17.4% 16.3% 16.3% 12.4 0.1 1.7 1.0 0.1 14.6
11-9 12.7% 10.5% 10.5% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.1 11.4
10-10 7.8% 7.4% 7.4% 12.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 7.2
9-11 4.2% 6.5% 6.5% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.9
8-12 1.6% 7.5% 7.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 12.0 80.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 10.0 2.9 8.8 14.7 29.4 44.1