Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.2#21
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#20
Pace63.5#323
Improvement-1.1#264

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#24
First Shot+5.7#42
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#44
Layup/Dunks+5.0#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#263
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#166
Freethrows+1.9#77
Improvement-2.1#342

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#25
First Shot+3.0#84
After Offensive Rebounds+3.7#14
Layups/Dunks+3.1#70
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#154
Freethrows+0.0#190
Improvement+1.0#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.1% 4.3% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 6.8% 12.8% 4.4%
Top 4 Seed 25.5% 40.3% 19.5%
Top 6 Seed 49.9% 68.2% 42.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.6% 94.8% 81.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.2% 94.6% 81.5%
Average Seed 6.0 5.2 6.4
.500 or above 98.2% 99.7% 97.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.3% 90.3% 72.1%
Conference Champion 2.8% 6.0% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four4.5% 2.3% 5.4%
First Round83.6% 93.7% 79.5%
Second Round60.3% 71.3% 55.8%
Sweet Sixteen28.1% 36.6% 24.7%
Elite Eight11.5% 15.8% 9.8%
Final Four4.7% 6.3% 4.0%
Championship Game1.8% 2.5% 1.5%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.5%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 28.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 26 - 8
Quad 26 - 112 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 10
Quad 47 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 185 Robert Morris W 101-69 96%     1 - 0 +27.3 +27.5 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 7 353 Western Illinois W 77-58 99%     2 - 0 +3.5 +5.2 +0.4
  Fri, Nov 14 85 Xavier W 81-62 86%     3 - 0 +22.7 +10.3 +12.3
  Tue, Nov 18 211 Southeast Missouri St. W 99-70 97%     4 - 0 +22.8 +26.6 -3.0
  Thu, Nov 20 340 Chicago St. W 93-54 99%     5 - 0 +25.0 +26.1 +4.6
  Tue, Nov 25 49 Mississippi W 74-69 68%     6 - 0 +15.4 +11.2 +4.6
  Wed, Nov 26 98 Grand Canyon W 59-46 83%     7 - 0 +18.2 +0.2 +20.1
  Tue, Dec 2 12 @Michigan St. L 65-71 29%    
  Sat, Dec 6 93 Maryland W 78-65 88%    
  Thu, Dec 11 4 @Iowa St. L 68-76 24%    
  Sun, Dec 14 243 Western Michigan W 83-60 98%    
  Sat, Dec 20 284 Bucknell W 81-59 98%    
  Mon, Dec 29 309 Umass Lowell W 86-60 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 32 UCLA W 70-65 67%    
  Tue, Jan 6 103 @Minnesota W 70-62 76%    
  Sun, Jan 11 13 Illinois W 76-75 51%    
  Wed, Jan 14 3 @Purdue L 66-76 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 22 @Indiana L 70-73 40%    
  Tue, Jan 20 120 Rutgers W 76-61 92%    
  Wed, Jan 28 31 USC W 77-72 67%    
  Sun, Feb 1 80 @Oregon W 74-69 68%    
  Wed, Feb 4 48 @Washington W 72-70 56%    
  Sun, Feb 8 56 Northwestern W 75-66 78%    
  Wed, Feb 11 93 @Maryland W 75-68 72%    
  Sat, Feb 14 3 Purdue L 69-73 36%    
  Tue, Feb 17 43 Nebraska W 77-71 71%    
  Sun, Feb 22 27 @Wisconsin L 73-75 44%    
  Wed, Feb 25 20 Ohio St. W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Feb 28 100 @Penn St. W 75-68 74%    
  Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 70-78 25%    
  Sun, Mar 8 43 @Nebraska W 74-73 51%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 2.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.6 2.0 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.6 3.7 1.3 0.1 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.4 4.2 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 5.3 2.7 0.2 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 4.5 3.6 0.7 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.4 3.4 4.1 1.1 0.0 8.9 8th
9th 0.2 1.9 4.0 1.8 0.1 8.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 5.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 6.4 8.7 11.3 13.1 13.8 12.8 10.7 7.7 4.3 2.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 94.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-2 78.8% 0.7    0.4 0.2 0.0
17-3 45.9% 1.1    0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 14.2% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.8% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.5% 100.0% 13.1% 86.9% 2.1 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.1 100.0%
16-4 4.3% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 2.7 0.5 1.4 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.7% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 3.5 0.3 1.1 2.5 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.7% 100.0% 5.0% 95.0% 4.3 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.2 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.8% 99.9% 3.1% 96.8% 5.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.6 3.7 3.3 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 13.8% 99.4% 1.9% 97.5% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.7 3.8 3.2 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
11-9 13.1% 97.6% 1.5% 96.1% 7.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.4 2.9 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.3 97.5%
10-10 11.3% 92.2% 0.8% 91.4% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.6 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.9 92.1%
9-11 8.7% 73.8% 0.3% 73.5% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.3 1.4 0.0 2.3 73.7%
8-12 6.4% 41.7% 0.7% 41.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 0.1 3.7 41.3%
7-13 3.8% 12.7% 12.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.3 12.7%
6-14 2.1% 1.6% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.6%
5-15 1.1% 1.1
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 85.6% 3.1% 82.5% 6.0 2.1 4.7 8.4 10.3 12.1 12.3 10.7 8.6 6.9 5.6 3.9 0.2 0.0 14.4 85.2%