Iowa
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.9 #22
Expected Predictive Rating +13.0 #40
Pace 62.5 #341
Improvement -0.7 #228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #34 A+ B B C+ B
Defense #21 B- B A+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #54 1.30 #55 +6.1 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #266 1.06 #4 +1.0 #122
Three Pointers 40% #206 1.14 #34 +2.0 #120
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #12 +9.0 #12
Freethrows 18.1 #142 75% #95 13.6 #125
Second Chance 35.1% #64 1.09 #124 0.38 #70
Turnovers 14.7% #68
Total Offense +8.1 #34

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #181 1.16 #182 -0.2 #184
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #207 0.69 #95 +1.0 #126
Three Pointers 42% #160 0.90 #55 +1.9 #109
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #95 +2.7 #95
Freethrows 18.8 #257 70% #83 13.2 #141
Second Chance 26.8% #60 1.01 #131 0.27 #64
Turnovers 21.9% #7
Total Defense +7.9 #21

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #67 0.3% #190
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.5% #10 -5.6% #80
Possession Length 18.7 #312 17.8 #265
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #219 0.11 #26
Improvement -2.1 #307 +1.4 #98

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 2.2% 0.4%
Top 4 Seed 7.6% 17.8% 5.1%
Top 6 Seed 27.9% 48.2% 22.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.9% 93.3% 79.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 81.4% 93.0% 78.6%
Average Seed 7.5 6.5 7.8
.500 or above 99.5% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 73.0% 89.8% 68.9%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.6% 3.2% 8.7%
First Round78.6% 91.9% 75.3%
Second Round51.9% 65.9% 48.4%
Sweet Sixteen20.2% 28.9% 18.0%
Elite Eight8.2% 11.5% 7.4%
Final Four3.4% 5.0% 3.0%
Championship Game1.3% 2.0% 1.1%
National Champion0.5% 0.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 19.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 25 - 9
Quad 26 - 211 - 11
Quad 34 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 214 Robert Morris W 101 - 69 97% +21  1 - 0 +26 +26 A+ A+ C +1 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 357 Western Illinois W 77 - 58 99% +10  2 - 0 +1 +7 A+ F A -4 D+ B- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 92 Xavier W 81 - 62 88% +10  3 - 0 +22 +10 A+ D- D +12 A+ B- A+
 Tue, Nov 18 224 Southeast Missouri St. W 99 - 70 97% +19  4 - 0 +23 +26 A+ A+ B -3 D F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 349 Chicago St. W 93 - 54 99% +18  5 - 0 +23 +25 B A+ A+ +3 B+ B+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 65 Mississippi W 74 - 69 76% +2  6 - 0 +14 +12 D A+ A+ +2 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 90 Grand Canyon W 59 - 46 82% +6  7 - 0 +19 +2 C B D+ +20 C A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 13 @Michigan St. L 52 - 71 28% -12  7 - 1 0 - 1 +3 +4 B+ C C- -5 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 112 Maryland W 83 - 64 91% +15  8 - 1 1 - 1 +20 +12 A+ C+ A +8 A- C- A+
 Thu, Dec 11 6 @Iowa St. L 62 - 66 22% +1  8 - 2 +20 +11 A+ A- D- +9 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Dec 14 250 Western Michigan W 91 - 51 98% +30  9 - 2 +32 +21 A+ D+ A+ +15 A+ C- B
 Sat, Dec 20 318 Bucknell W 94 - 39 98% +23  10 - 2 +46 +27 A+ A+ A- +23 D A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 284 Umass Lowell W 90 - 62 98% +19  11 - 2 +18 +18 A+ D A +2 D A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 38 UCLA W 74 - 61 71% +10  12 - 2 2 - 1 +23 +15 A+ F D +10 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 6 76 @Minnesota L 67 - 70 70% -6  12 - 3 2 - 2 +8 +1 C+ C D- +6 C A+ D+
 Sun, Jan 11 8 Illinois L 69 - 75 44% -10  12 - 4 2 - 3 +12 +7 B+ C C+ +4 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 3 @Purdue L 67 - 76 20%
 Sat, Jan 17 31 @Indiana L 72 - 73 45%
 Tue, Jan 20 124 Rutgers W 77 - 60 95%
 Wed, Jan 28 47 USC W 77 - 69 76%
 Sun, Feb 1 72 @Oregon W 73 - 68 69%
 Wed, Feb 4 46 @Washington W 72 - 70 56%
 Sun, Feb 8 63 Northwestern W 76 - 66 83%
 Wed, Feb 11 112 @Maryland W 74 - 65 80%
 Sat, Feb 14 3 Purdue L 70 - 73 39%
 Tue, Feb 17 16 Nebraska W 71 - 69 56%
 Sun, Feb 22 39 @Wisconsin L 73 - 74 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 36 Ohio St. W 74 - 69 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 99 @Penn St. W 76 - 68 76%
 Thu, Mar 5 1 Michigan L 72 - 79 28%
 Sun, Mar 8 16 @Nebraska L 68 - 72 34%
Totals 21 - 10 11 - 9 +16 +8 A+ B B +8 B- B A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.1 1.0 0.1 2.3 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.9 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 4.6 1.9 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 6.9 4.2 0.4 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 1.4 7.2 5.6 0.8 0.0 15.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 5.6 6.4 1.4 0.0 14.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.8 6.8 2.2 0.1 12.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.9 3.1 0.3 9.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 7.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.9 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.0 8.0 12.9 17.8 18.6 16.3 11.4 6.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 35.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 2.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.7% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.2% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 3.7 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.0% 100.0% 7.0% 93.0% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.4% 99.8% 4.7% 95.1% 5.6 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 3.4 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 16.3% 99.1% 2.6% 96.5% 6.7 0.1 0.5 2.0 4.3 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.1%
11-9 18.6% 96.5% 1.6% 94.9% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 4.1 5.0 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.7 96.4%
10-10 17.8% 89.1% 1.4% 87.7% 8.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 4.6 4.1 1.5 1.9 88.9%
9-11 12.9% 65.8% 0.7% 65.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.3 3.0 0.0 4.4 65.6%
8-12 8.0% 35.2% 0.7% 34.5% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.9 0.1 5.2 34.7%
7-13 4.0% 8.7% 0.4% 8.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 8.4%
6-14 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.9% 2.4% 79.5% 7.5 18.2 81.4%