Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.6 #25
Expected Predictive Rating +10.8 #56
Pace 71.0 #123
Improvement -1.4 #257

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #40 B+ A B+ C B
Defense #20 A+ A- C+ C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #71 1.34 #24 +6.5 #18
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #275 0.71 #242 -2.0 #281
Three Pointers 41% #185 1.05 #139 +0.7 #152
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #50 +5.2 #51
Freethrows 16.8 #221 74% #137 12.5 #188
Second Chance 35.2% #62 1.21 #29 0.43 #30
Turnovers 14.3% #50
Total Offense +7.4 #40

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 1.11 #122 +5.4 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #26 0.69 #90 -1.8 #300
Three Pointers 42% #149 0.81 #7 +3.7 #52
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #14 +7.4 #14
Freethrows 15.6 #100 75% #296 11.7 #231
Second Chance 25.4% #27 0.93 #51 0.24 #22
Turnovers 17.2% #133
Total Defense +8.1 #20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #70 -2.9% #19
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.2% #62 -11.9% #18
Possession Length 15.1 #25 18.9 #354
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.34 #2 0.09 #10
Improvement -1.5 #274 +0.2 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.8% 11.2% 4.1%
Top 6 Seed 27.0% 35.8% 17.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.6% 79.4% 58.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 67.9% 78.0% 57.2%
Average Seed 7.3 7.0 7.9
.500 or above 85.6% 92.6% 78.0%
.500 or above in Conference 52.9% 65.0% 39.7%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.8% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.2% 5.8%
First Four9.1% 7.6% 10.6%
First Round66.2% 76.5% 54.9%
Second Round44.3% 52.9% 35.1%
Sweet Sixteen17.6% 22.0% 12.8%
Elite Eight7.2% 9.2% 5.0%
Final Four2.8% 3.7% 1.8%
Championship Game1.0% 1.4% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: LSU (Away) - 51.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 103 - 10
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 12
Quad 24 - 211 - 14
Quad 31 - 012 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 205 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 96% +15  1 - 0 +20 +1 C F A- +19 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 184 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 96% +31  2 - 0 +43 +26 A+ D+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Nov 11 19 @Louisville L 88 - 96 35% -8  2 - 1 +11 +15 A+ A+ C- -3 A B+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 311 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 99% +27  3 - 1 +34 +27 A+ A+ D+ +8 A- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 13 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 37% -11  3 - 2 +2 +5 C- C+ A+ -3 F A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 336 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99% +26  4 - 2 +28 +4 D+ C B +23 A+ A B+
 Wed, Nov 26 314 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99% +18  5 - 2 +38 +22 A+ A+ B+ +14 A+ A F
 Tue, Dec 2 29 North Carolina L 64 - 67 64% +2  5 - 3 +9 +3 C+ C- C+ +6 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 10 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 33% -21  5 - 4 -15 -6 F A+ A+ -9 D- B+ C-
 Tue, Dec 9 338 NC Central W 103 - 67 99% +19  6 - 4 +22 +21 A+ B+ A+ +0 C- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 13 31 Indiana W 72 - 60 66% -0  7 - 4 +23 +6 F A+ A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 15 St. John's W 78 - 66 43% +3  8 - 4 +29 +14 B+ A+ D+ +15 A+ B+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 294 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 98% +8  9 - 4 +3 +21 A+ A+ C -17 C+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 14 @Alabama L 74 - 89 30% -11  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 +5 C- A+ D +1 C+ A- B+
 Wed, Jan 7 53 Missouri L 68 - 73 79% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +2 -1 C D+ D +3 C A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 66 Mississippi St. W 92 - 68 83% +4  10 - 6 1 - 2 +29 +24 A+ A+ B +6 C+ B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 44 @LSU W 77 - 76 52%
 Sat, Jan 17 20 @Tennessee L 70 - 74 36%
 Wed, Jan 21 41 Texas W 82 - 76 72%
 Sat, Jan 24 65 Mississippi W 78 - 68 83%
 Tue, Jan 27 9 @Vanderbilt L 75 - 83 23%
 Sat, Jan 31 26 @Arkansas L 80 - 83 40%
 Wed, Feb 4 54 Oklahoma W 81 - 73 78%
 Sat, Feb 7 20 Tennessee W 73 - 71 57%
 Sat, Feb 14 12 @Florida L 73 - 80 25%
 Tue, Feb 17 23 Georgia W 85 - 82 60%
 Sat, Feb 21 27 @Auburn L 77 - 80 41%
 Tue, Feb 24 69 @South Carolina W 75 - 70 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 9 Vanderbilt L 78 - 80 43%
 Tue, Mar 3 40 @Texas A&M L 80 - 81 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 12 Florida L 76 - 77 45%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 9 +16 +7 B+ A B+ +8 A+ A- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 5.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.7 1.5 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.3 3.8 3.4 0.4 7.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 5.7 1.2 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.6 5.4 3.4 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.1 3.1 5.8 0.8 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 1.0 6.4 2.8 0.1 10.3 9th
10th 0.3 3.6 4.8 0.5 0.0 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.8 0.0 8.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 3.2 3.1 0.2 6.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.3 3.0 0.7 0.0 5.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.1 2.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.1 4.6 9.1 13.6 16.9 17.0 15.0 10.6 6.2 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 91.7% 0.2    0.2 0.0
14-4 66.0% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
13-5 22.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
12-6 3.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 29.2% 70.8% 2.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.0% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 3.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.8% 100.0% 18.2% 81.8% 4.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.1 100.0%
12-6 6.2% 100.0% 16.2% 83.8% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 10.6% 99.8% 8.9% 90.9% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.2 3.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 15.0% 99.5% 6.1% 93.3% 6.6 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.9 5.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
9-9 17.0% 95.0% 4.5% 90.4% 8.1 0.1 0.6 1.4 3.1 4.2 3.9 2.4 0.5 0.9 94.7%
8-10 16.9% 75.4% 2.6% 72.8% 9.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.8 4.7 0.1 4.2 74.7%
7-11 13.6% 32.0% 1.8% 30.2% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 2.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 30.7%
6-12 9.1% 5.6% 0.9% 4.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 8.6 4.8%
5-13 4.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2%
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 0.6% 0.6
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 69.6% 5.2% 64.4% 7.3 30.4 67.9%