Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#16
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#82
Pace75.1#59
Improvement+0.4#139

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#18
First Shot+9.2#10
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#163
Layup/Dunks+7.3#13
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#47
Freethrows-1.8#293
Improvement+0.0#179

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#12
First Shot+4.8#51
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#20
Layups/Dunks+4.6#49
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#292
Freethrows+3.1#29
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.9% 1.1% 0.3%
#1 Seed 5.3% 6.5% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 14.9% 17.7% 7.1%
Top 4 Seed 41.2% 46.3% 27.3%
Top 6 Seed 63.7% 69.0% 49.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.5% 91.6% 79.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.6% 90.1% 77.3%
Average Seed 5.1 4.8 5.9
.500 or above 95.2% 97.2% 89.7%
.500 or above in Conference 84.7% 86.9% 78.6%
Conference Champion 17.5% 19.1% 13.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 0.7%
First Four3.4% 2.8% 5.0%
First Round87.1% 90.5% 77.7%
Second Round71.1% 75.2% 60.1%
Sweet Sixteen41.2% 44.8% 31.3%
Elite Eight20.6% 22.8% 14.7%
Final Four9.5% 10.8% 6.1%
Championship Game4.2% 4.9% 2.5%
National Champion1.8% 2.0% 1.1%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 73.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 114 - 11
Quad 31 - 015 - 11
Quad 47 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 270 Nicholls St. W 77-51 98%     1 - 0 +17.2 +2.2 +15.0
  Fri, Nov 7 268 Valparaiso W 107-59 98%     2 - 0 +39.3 +24.5 +11.7
  Tue, Nov 11 9 @Louisville L 88-96 33%     2 - 1 +14.1 +16.4 -1.6
  Fri, Nov 14 329 Eastern Illinois W 99-53 99%     3 - 1 +33.6 +25.7 +9.3
  Tue, Nov 18 12 Michigan St. L 66-83 48%     3 - 2 +1.1 +2.6 -1.2
  Fri, Nov 21 301 Loyola Maryland W 88-46 99%     4 - 2 +31.2 +7.7 +22.3
  Wed, Nov 26 322 Tennessee Tech W 104-54 99%     5 - 2 +38.4 +22.9 +13.5
  Tue, Dec 2 26 North Carolina W 84-77 73%    
  Fri, Dec 5 6 Gonzaga L 79-81 43%    
  Tue, Dec 9 350 NC Central W 92-59 99.9%   
  Sat, Dec 13 22 Indiana W 80-74 69%    
  Sat, Dec 20 15 St. John's L 82-83 50%    
  Tue, Dec 23 294 Bellarmine W 93-65 99.6%   
  Sat, Jan 3 10 @Alabama L 86-90 35%    
  Wed, Jan 7 33 Missouri W 84-77 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 84 Mississippi St. W 85-71 89%    
  Wed, Jan 14 40 @LSU W 82-79 60%    
  Sat, Jan 17 14 @Tennessee L 76-79 38%    
  Wed, Jan 21 36 Texas W 82-74 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 49 Mississippi W 81-71 82%    
  Tue, Jan 27 19 @Vanderbilt L 82-83 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 25 @Arkansas W 80-79 51%    
  Wed, Feb 4 52 Oklahoma W 86-76 82%    
  Sat, Feb 7 14 Tennessee W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Feb 14 17 @Florida L 80-82 41%    
  Tue, Feb 17 34 Georgia W 90-82 74%    
  Sat, Feb 21 23 @Auburn L 80-81 49%    
  Tue, Feb 24 88 @South Carolina W 79-71 77%    
  Sat, Feb 28 19 Vanderbilt W 85-80 65%    
  Tue, Mar 3 60 @Texas A&M W 84-79 68%    
  Sat, Mar 7 17 Florida W 83-79 62%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.4 4.9 5.2 3.1 1.3 0.2 17.5 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 5.7 4.1 1.5 0.2 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 5.7 4.3 0.8 0.1 12.6 3rd
4th 0.6 4.4 4.5 0.8 0.0 10.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 4.9 1.2 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.4 2.3 0.2 7.8 6th
7th 0.2 2.7 3.4 0.5 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 3.4 1.3 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 1.8 0.2 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.2 6.8 9.5 12.5 13.8 14.1 13.4 9.9 6.7 3.3 1.3 0.2 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 94.8% 3.1    2.8 0.3 0.0
15-3 77.1% 5.2    3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 49.8% 4.9    2.0 2.0 0.8 0.1
13-5 18.3% 2.4    0.4 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.5% 17.5 10.2 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 51.7% 48.3% 1.3 0.1 0.1 100.0%
17-1 1.3% 100.0% 46.0% 54.0% 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 34.4% 65.6% 1.9 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 6.7% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 2.2 1.5 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 9.9% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 2.9 1.1 2.7 3.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 13.4% 100.0% 20.5% 79.5% 3.7 0.4 1.6 3.8 4.2 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.1% 99.9% 15.3% 84.6% 4.6 0.1 0.4 2.6 3.8 4.0 2.0 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-7 13.8% 99.3% 8.5% 90.8% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.3 3.3 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
10-8 12.5% 97.2% 6.7% 90.5% 6.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 2.6 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 97.0%
9-9 9.5% 87.0% 4.7% 82.3% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.1 1.2 86.4%
8-10 6.8% 60.1% 3.3% 56.8% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 58.7%
7-11 4.2% 28.5% 1.5% 27.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.0 27.4%
6-12 2.4% 7.8% 0.6% 7.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.2 7.3%
5-13 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 12.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 88.5% 14.3% 74.2% 5.1 5.3 9.6 13.0 13.3 12.6 9.9 8.6 5.9 3.8 3.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.5 86.6%