Louisville
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +16.5 #19
Expected Predictive Rating +13.4 #39
Pace 73.5 #67
Improvement -4.2 #340

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #12 A+ C+ B- B+ A-
Defense #35 A A- C C+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #209 1.37 #14 +3.2 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 8% #356 0.89 #37 -4.1 #347
Three Pointers 55% #6 1.14 #32 +10.4 #3
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #5 +9.5 #6
Freethrows 18.7 #118 79% #21 14.8 #62
Second Chance 36.0% #41 0.98 #255 0.35 #103
Turnovers 15.2% #100
Total Offense +10.3 #12

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.05 #55 +6.0 #23
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #10 0.60 #17 -1.2 #277
Three Pointers 39% #233 0.95 #105 +2.1 #102
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #16 +6.8 #17
Freethrows 16.7 #154 71% #109 11.8 #228
Second Chance 25.0% #24 0.96 #78 0.24 #27
Turnovers 17.2% #138
Total Defense +6.1 #35

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.0% #23 -3.4% #12
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.2% #11 -10.3% #27
Possession Length 14.7 #11 18.8 #351
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #315 0.07 #3
Improvement -3.2 #336 -1.0 #247

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.5% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 12.7% 15.1% 5.6%
Top 6 Seed 40.5% 45.5% 25.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.8% 93.1% 83.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.9% 92.4% 82.8%
Average Seed 6.9 6.6 7.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.2%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 88.4% 67.1%
Conference Champion 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.3% 3.3% 6.9%
First Round89.1% 91.8% 81.0%
Second Round62.5% 65.8% 53.0%
Sweet Sixteen25.9% 28.0% 19.7%
Elite Eight10.6% 11.5% 7.9%
Final Four4.2% 4.5% 3.0%
Championship Game1.5% 1.6% 1.0%
National Champion0.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 74.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 36 - 9
Quad 26 - 113 - 11
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 361 South Carolina St. W 104 - 45 100% +40  1 - 0 +41 +9 A- C- F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 6 333 Jackson St. W 106 - 70 99% +22  2 - 0 +22 +17 A+ C A +2 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 25 Kentucky W 96 - 88 65% +8  3 - 0 +21 +21 A+ B- A+ -2 C+ C+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 178 Ohio W 106 - 81 96% +14  4 - 0 +21 +21 A+ A+ B -3 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 56 Cincinnati W 74 - 64 74% +1  5 - 0 +20 +10 B F B+ +10 B A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 211 Eastern Michigan W 87 - 46 97% +20  6 - 0 +35 +17 A+ C A+ +20 A+ A- B
 Wed, Nov 26 352 NJIT W 104 - 47 99% +31  7 - 0 +41 +27 A+ A+ C+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 26 @Arkansas L 80 - 89 43% -10  7 - 1 +9 +7 B- F A+ +3 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 6 31 Indiana W 87 - 78 58% +12  8 - 1 +23 +15 A+ F C +8 A+ F A-
 Sat, Dec 13 83 Memphis W 99 - 73 88% +17  9 - 1 +30 +28 A+ A+ B +1 A+ D F
 Tue, Dec 16 20 @Tennessee L 62 - 83 39% -11  9 - 2 -2 +1 B C- F -3 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 186 Montana W 94 - 54 96% +17  10 - 2 +35 +13 A+ A+ F +20 A+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 30 81 @California W 90 - 70 74% +16  11 - 2 1 - 0 +30 +20 A+ A- A- +9 A+ A F
 Fri, Jan 2 77 @Stanford L 76 - 80 72% -3  11 - 3 1 - 1 +6 +17 C A+ B -11 C D- C-
 Tue, Jan 6 7 Duke L 73 - 84 45% +2  11 - 4 1 - 2 +7 +4 B+ C+ B- +3 C- A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 151 Boston College W 75 - 62 95% -1  12 - 4 2 - 2 +10 +5 A+ F F +6 C A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 17 Virginia L 70 - 79 59% -2  12 - 5 2 - 3 +5 +7 A D+ A -3 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 88 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 75%
 Sat, Jan 24 64 Virginia Tech W 85 - 74 84%
 Mon, Jan 26 7 @Duke L 76 - 83 25%
 Sat, Jan 31 30 SMU W 85 - 80 68%
 Wed, Feb 4 71 Notre Dame W 79 - 68 86%
 Sat, Feb 7 57 @Wake Forest W 82 - 78 65%
 Mon, Feb 9 24 North Carolina St. W 83 - 79 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 37 Baylor W 83 - 80 60%
 Tue, Feb 17 30 @SMU L 82 - 83 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 111 Georgia Tech W 88 - 72 93%
 Mon, Feb 23 29 @North Carolina L 79 - 80 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 33 @Clemson L 73 - 74 47%
 Tue, Mar 3 61 Syracuse W 84 - 74 83%
 Sat, Mar 7 35 @Miami (FL) L 81 - 82 48%
Totals 21 - 10 10 - 8 +16 +10 A+ C+ B- +6 A A- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.8 1st
2nd 0.2 1.3 1.3 0.2 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.2 0.9 0.0 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.2 2.7 0.2 9.1 4th
5th 0.5 5.2 6.0 0.7 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.2 3.4 8.3 2.2 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 8.1 4.9 0.2 0.0 14.8 7th
8th 0.7 5.6 6.5 0.9 13.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 5.9 1.6 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.7 2.1 0.1 6.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.0 4.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.7 0.7 0.0 2.8 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.9 4.9 9.7 15.8 20.2 20.5 15.2 8.1 2.8 0.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 57.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 15.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.4% 100.0% 27.0% 73.0% 2.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.8% 100.0% 21.8% 78.2% 3.4 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.1% 100.0% 17.4% 82.6% 4.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.8 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 15.2% 99.8% 13.7% 86.1% 5.3 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.7 4.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
11-7 20.5% 99.5% 9.4% 90.1% 6.4 0.2 1.2 3.9 5.7 5.6 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
10-8 20.2% 97.3% 7.2% 90.1% 7.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.1 5.2 5.2 3.2 1.3 0.2 0.5 97.1%
9-9 15.8% 91.7% 4.5% 87.1% 8.5 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.1 4.0 2.7 0.6 1.3 91.3%
8-10 9.7% 74.4% 3.3% 71.1% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.4 1.6 0.0 2.5 73.5%
7-11 4.9% 45.7% 2.4% 43.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.1 2.6 44.4%
6-12 1.9% 16.7% 1.8% 14.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.6 15.2%
5-13 0.4% 3.5% 3.5% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.5%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 90.8% 8.8% 82.0% 6.9 9.2 89.9%