Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.7 #85
Expected Predictive Rating +9.5 #65
Pace 63.7 #322
Improvement +3.4 #38

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #67 C B+ A+ A+ D
Defense #121 B- D+ C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #131 1.03 #316 -1.7 #241
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #38 0.79 #131 +3.8 #31
Three Pointers 31% #349 1.18 #16 -2.7 #278
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #194 -0.6 #195
Freethrows 22.8 #6 76% #68 17.4 #4
Second Chance 35.8% #49 1.12 #98 0.40 #47
Turnovers 12.4% #5
Total Offense +5.2 #67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #161 1.04 #50 +1.8 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.75 #172 +0.8 #139
Three Pointers 42% #151 0.97 #115 +0.5 #156
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #85 +3.0 #83
Freethrows 19.2 #272 70% #76 13.4 #127
Second Chance 29.1% #119 1.21 #337 0.35 #266
Turnovers 17.2% #141
Total Defense +1.5 #121

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.9% #297 0.7% #226
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #166 -6.5% #68
Possession Length 17.2 #160 18.5 #337
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #65 0.15 #107
Improvement +2.8 #37 +0.6 #146

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.4% 13.1% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.8% 4.9% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.9 10.6 11.0
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 99.1% 93.6%
Conference Champion 4.8% 15.7% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 2.9% 1.0%
First Round6.7% 11.4% 5.9%
Second Round1.6% 3.0% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 14.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 5
Quad 24 - 45 - 9
Quad 310 - 215 - 10
Quad 47 - 122 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 234 Louisiana Tech W 77 - 50 89% +16  1 - 0 +20 +13 C A+ B- +10 A+ C A-
 Sat, Nov 8 144 Pacific W 78 - 77 80% +2  2 - 0 -1 +7 C A- B -8 D- A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 126 Southern Illinois W 86 - 81 OT 77% -1  3 - 0 +4 +5 F D- A+ -2 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 55 @Santa Clara L 83 - 98 28% -13  3 - 1 -2 +14 A F A -17 F F C
 Tue, Nov 18 188 UC Davis L 71 - 75 86% +0  3 - 2 -9 -9 D- F F +1 F A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 181 UC Santa Barbara W 77 - 64 85% +8  4 - 2 +8 +1 C F D +7 A+ F A
 Thu, Nov 27 46 Washington L 66 - 83 33% -7  4 - 3 -6 -3 F C A+ -2 D A A+
 Fri, Nov 28 103 San Francisco W 81 - 65 57% +5  5 - 3 +21 +18 A+ C A+ +4 A+ F A+
 Tue, Dec 2 109 UC San Diego W 76 - 70 71% +4  6 - 3 +7 +10 B+ B+ A+ -2 A+ F F
 Sun, Dec 7 136 @Washington St. W 78 - 64 59% +5  7 - 3 +18 +16 F A+ A+ +4 A- C A+
 Sat, Dec 13 132 Duquesne W 78 - 75 78% +5  8 - 3 +2 +6 F A+ A+ -4 A+ F C+
 Sat, Dec 20 78 Boise St. W 81 - 66 59% +10  9 - 3 1 - 0 +19 +22 A+ C+ A+ -1 D+ A- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 97 @Colorado St. W 75 - 62 44% +4  10 - 3 2 - 0 +21 +10 F A+ A- +13 A+ D+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 152 @Fresno St. W 66 - 65 63% -2  11 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +2 D B+ A +2 C F A+
 Tue, Jan 6 52 San Diego St. L 68 - 73 47% +2  11 - 4 3 - 1 +2 +6 F A+ A+ -4 A- F A-
 Sat, Jan 10 96 Wyoming W 92 - 83 66% +4  12 - 4 4 - 1 +11 +31 A+ A+ A+ -19 F D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 28 @Utah St. L 69 - 80 15%
 Sat, Jan 17 342 @Air Force W 74 - 59 92%
 Tue, Jan 20 227 San Jose St. W 78 - 65 89%
 Sat, Jan 24 48 @New Mexico L 70 - 77 25%
 Tue, Jan 27 90 Grand Canyon W 72 - 69 63%
 Fri, Jan 30 134 UNLV W 80 - 72 77%
 Tue, Feb 3 78 @Boise St. L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Feb 7 152 Fresno St. W 76 - 67 81%
 Sat, Feb 14 52 @San Diego St. L 69 - 76 27%
 Tue, Feb 17 227 @San Jose St. W 75 - 68 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 28 Utah St. L 72 - 77 32%
 Tue, Feb 24 48 New Mexico L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Feb 28 134 @UNLV W 77 - 75 58%
 Tue, Mar 3 96 @Wyoming L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Mar 7 342 Air Force W 77 - 56 97%
Totals 21 - 10 13 - 7 +7 +5 C B+ A+ +2 B- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.2 4.7 5.3 2.4 0.2 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.6 8.2 8.8 2.7 0.2 22.6 3rd
4th 0.3 3.4 10.1 9.1 2.3 0.1 25.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 6.7 6.0 1.4 0.0 16.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.0 3.7 0.7 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.0 9.0 14.5 19.5 19.9 15.9 9.4 4.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0
17-3 82.2% 1.1    0.7 0.4 0.0
16-4 42.7% 1.9    0.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
15-5 13.8% 1.3    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1
14-6 1.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.8% 4.8 1.9 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 63.6% 12.7% 50.9% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 58.3%
17-3 1.3% 44.6% 21.6% 23.0% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 29.4%
16-4 4.5% 26.0% 13.1% 12.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.0 3.4 14.9%
15-5 9.4% 15.7% 11.0% 4.7% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 8.0 5.3%
14-6 15.9% 9.3% 8.3% 0.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.1 14.4 1.0%
13-7 19.9% 5.7% 5.3% 0.4% 11.2 0.0 0.9 0.3 18.8 0.4%
12-8 19.5% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 11.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 18.7 0.0%
11-9 14.5% 2.7% 2.7% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 14.1
10-10 9.0% 1.5% 1.5% 11.7 0.0 0.1 8.8
9-11 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.4% 5.7% 1.7% 10.9 92.6 1.8%