Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#122
Expected Predictive Rating+2.3#135
Pace69.2#198
Improvement-2.6#345

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#131
First Shot+1.7#128
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#203
Layup/Dunks-4.1#311
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#34
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#295
Freethrows+6.4#3
Improvement-3.3#360

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#117
First Shot+0.5#151
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#115
Layups/Dunks+6.0#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.7#357
Freethrows-1.4#263
Improvement+0.7#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 4.1% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.9 11.6 12.2
.500 or above 49.3% 65.3% 41.5%
.500 or above in Conference 48.3% 56.6% 44.3%
Conference Champion 2.1% 3.2% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.8% 3.4%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round2.9% 4.0% 2.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Francisco (Neutral) - 32.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 22 - 63 - 10
Quad 38 - 510 - 15
Quad 46 - 116 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 194 Louisiana Tech W 77-50 78%     1 - 0 +21.9 +14.4 +10.6
  Sat, Nov 8 144 Pacific W 78-77 69%     2 - 0 -1.5 +7.1 -8.5
  Wed, Nov 12 142 Southern Illinois W 86-81 OT 68%     3 - 0 +2.9 +2.7 -0.3
  Sat, Nov 15 59 @Santa Clara L 83-98 18%     3 - 1 -2.7 +16.2 -18.8
  Tue, Nov 18 178 UC Davis L 71-75 75%     3 - 2 -8.4 -6.2 -1.9
  Sat, Nov 22 141 UC Santa Barbara W 77-64 68%     4 - 2 +11.0 +2.9 +8.5
  Thu, Nov 27 48 Washington L 66-83 23%     4 - 3 -6.4 -3.5 -2.6
  Fri, Nov 28 77 San Francisco L 71-76 33%    
  Tue, Dec 2 96 UC San Diego W 75-74 50%    
  Sun, Dec 7 157 @Washington St. W 79-78 51%    
  Sat, Dec 13 126 Duquesne W 80-77 62%    
  Sat, Dec 20 61 Boise St. L 68-71 37%    
  Tue, Dec 30 87 @Colorado St. L 69-76 27%    
  Sat, Jan 3 153 @Fresno St. L 74-75 50%    
  Tue, Jan 6 57 San Diego St. L 72-76 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 117 Wyoming W 76-73 60%    
  Wed, Jan 14 35 @Utah St. L 69-82 12%    
  Sat, Jan 17 323 @Air Force W 72-64 77%    
  Tue, Jan 20 187 San Jose St. W 74-66 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 101 @New Mexico L 75-80 33%    
  Tue, Jan 27 98 Grand Canyon W 74-73 53%    
  Fri, Jan 30 129 UNLV W 81-77 63%    
  Tue, Feb 3 61 @Boise St. L 65-74 20%    
  Sat, Feb 7 153 Fresno St. W 78-72 70%    
  Sat, Feb 14 57 @San Diego St. L 69-79 20%    
  Tue, Feb 17 187 @San Jose St. W 71-69 56%    
  Sat, Feb 21 35 Utah St. L 72-79 27%    
  Tue, Feb 24 101 New Mexico W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Feb 28 129 @UNLV L 78-80 42%    
  Tue, Mar 3 117 @Wyoming L 73-76 39%    
  Sat, Mar 7 323 Air Force W 75-61 90%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.6 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.4 2.2 4.0 2.3 0.4 0.0 9.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 4.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.6 3.6 0.5 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.4 3.8 0.7 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 4.0 0.7 0.0 12.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.8 3.8 1.0 0.0 12.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.7 2.8 0.8 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 4.8 7.2 10.2 12.2 13.1 12.9 11.6 9.1 6.6 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 94.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 74.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-4 57.6% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1
15-5 27.7% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.1% 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 51.4% 31.4% 20.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 29.2%
17-3 0.5% 20.3% 12.6% 7.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 8.8%
16-4 1.1% 21.3% 16.7% 4.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.9 5.6%
15-5 2.3% 13.3% 11.7% 1.6% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.0 1.8%
14-6 4.1% 10.2% 10.1% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.7 0.2%
13-7 6.6% 6.7% 6.5% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.2%
12-8 9.1% 4.6% 4.6% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.6
11-9 11.6% 3.7% 3.7% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.2
10-10 12.9% 2.4% 2.4% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 12.6
9-11 13.1% 0.9% 0.9% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
8-12 12.2% 0.7% 0.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1
7-13 10.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 7.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.2
5-15 4.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.8
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 3.0% 2.8% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 97.0 0.2%