North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +14.7 #29
Expected Predictive Rating +19.7 #13
Pace 69.5 #171
Improvement -3.2 #323

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #31 B+ B+ A B- B
Defense #30 A A+ D- A+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.28 #68 +5.2 #35
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #288 0.80 #115 -1.6 #259
Three Pointers 42% #161 1.09 #83 +2.1 #115
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #47 +5.6 #46
Freethrows 20.0 #63 70% #253 14.1 #92
Second Chance 36.4% #37 1.09 #122 0.40 #52
Turnovers 13.3% #24
Total Offense +8.1 #31

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #339 0.96 #11 +7.7 #8
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #14 0.63 #33 -1.4 #283
Three Pointers 41% #201 1.00 #170 +0.4 #160
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #17 +6.8 #19
Freethrows 11.5 #6 72% #147 8.3 #361
Second Chance 25.6% #29 0.80 #5 0.20 #5
Turnovers 14.2% #316
Total Defense +6.6 #30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #59 -3.2% #13
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.7% #56 -10.4% #26
Possession Length 15.6 #44 19.6 #364
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #85 0.08 #6
Improvement -0.2 #195 -3.0 #328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 16.2% 20.5% 8.0%
Top 6 Seed 50.4% 58.2% 35.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.2% 96.6% 89.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 93.7% 96.3% 89.0%
Average Seed 6.5 6.1 7.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.3% 91.9% 75.5%
Conference Champion 3.5% 4.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four3.3% 1.9% 5.9%
First Round92.6% 95.7% 86.8%
Second Round61.6% 66.2% 52.7%
Sweet Sixteen23.2% 26.3% 17.4%
Elite Eight8.1% 9.2% 5.8%
Final Four2.7% 3.1% 1.9%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 65.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 9
Quad 36 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 265 Central Arkansas W 94 - 54 98% +24  1 - 0 +31 +10 A- A+ B- +18 A+ C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 18 Kansas W 87 - 74 53% +2  2 - 0 +27 +21 A+ D+ C- +6 B- A- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 254 Radford W 89 - 74 97% +11  3 - 0 +7 -2 F C- A +7 A+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 338 NC Central W 97 - 53 99% +20  4 - 0 +30 +17 B- A+ A- +13 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 18 200 Navy W 73 - 61 96% +10  5 - 0 +7 -0 B F D+ +7 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 127 St. Bonaventure W 85 - 70 88% +11  6 - 0 +17 +10 A B+ D- +7 A- A+ F
 Thu, Nov 27 13 Michigan St. L 58 - 74 34% -4  6 - 1 +3 +7 C+ C+ A+ -6 C- B C-
 Tue, Dec 2 25 @Kentucky W 67 - 64 36% -2  7 - 1 +22 +10 D+ A+ D+ +12 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 100 Georgetown W 81 - 61 88% +7  8 - 1 +22 +7 A D- A+ +15 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 299 South Carolina Upstate W 80 - 62 98% +8  9 - 1 +7 +11 B+ C+ A+ -3 B C F
 Tue, Dec 16 119 East Tennessee St. W 77 - 58 91% +10  10 - 1 +19 +16 A+ A+ A+ +6 A+ B F
 Sat, Dec 20 36 Ohio St. W 71 - 70 54% +4  11 - 1 +15 +9 B A- A+ +6 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 262 East Carolina W 99 - 51 98% +24  12 - 1 +39 +16 A+ B B +19 A+ A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 30 117 Florida St. W 79 - 66 91% +7  13 - 1 1 - 0 +13 +5 D B A+ +8 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 30 @SMU L 83 - 97 39% -5  13 - 2 1 - 1 +4 +17 A+ D- A+ -14 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 57 Wake Forest W 87 - 84 79% +8  14 - 2 2 - 1 +9 +16 A+ A+ B -7 F B B+
 Wed, Jan 14 77 @Stanford W 76 - 72 66%
 Sat, Jan 17 81 @California W 78 - 73 67%
 Wed, Jan 21 71 Notre Dame W 76 - 66 82%
 Sat, Jan 24 17 @Virginia L 71 - 76 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 111 @Georgia Tech W 80 - 72 77%
 Mon, Feb 2 61 Syracuse W 80 - 71 79%
 Sat, Feb 7 7 Duke L 74 - 77 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 35 @Miami (FL) L 77 - 79 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 88 Pittsburgh W 78 - 67 85%
 Tue, Feb 17 24 @North Carolina St. L 76 - 80 36%
 Sat, Feb 21 61 @Syracuse W 77 - 74 60%
 Mon, Feb 23 19 Louisville W 80 - 79 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 64 Virginia Tech W 80 - 71 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 33 Clemson W 72 - 68 63%
 Sat, Mar 7 7 @Duke L 71 - 80 20%
Totals 23 - 8 11 - 7 +15 +8 B+ B+ A +7 A A+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.5 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 3.1 1.0 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.7 4.8 2.1 0.1 8.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.6 3.8 0.4 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.7 6.5 1.1 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 8.0 2.8 0.1 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 6.8 4.1 0.3 12.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 4.4 4.9 0.7 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.7 4.3 1.1 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.0 2.0 0.1 5.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.4 13th
14th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.9 7.6 12.7 16.3 18.7 17.0 11.6 6.6 2.7 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 94.4% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
15-3 59.3% 1.6    0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
14-4 16.3% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.5% 3.5 1.2 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.6% 100.0% 23.8% 76.2% 2.6 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.7% 100.0% 24.2% 75.8% 3.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 6.6% 100.0% 15.0% 85.0% 4.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 11.6% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 4.8 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 4.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 17.0% 99.9% 7.9% 92.0% 5.5 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.4 5.8 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-7 18.7% 99.6% 5.5% 94.1% 6.4 0.1 0.7 3.3 6.3 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-8 16.3% 98.6% 3.7% 94.9% 7.4 0.1 0.7 3.2 4.8 4.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 0.2 98.5%
9-9 12.7% 94.9% 3.1% 91.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 3.4 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.7 94.7%
8-10 7.6% 80.6% 1.0% 79.6% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.0 1.5 80.4%
7-11 3.9% 59.4% 1.0% 58.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.0 1.6 59.0%
6-12 1.7% 26.5% 1.2% 25.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.2 25.6%
5-13 0.5% 5.9% 2.0% 3.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.0%
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 94.2% 6.9% 87.3% 6.5 5.8 93.7%