North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.1#26
Expected Predictive Rating+16.8#21
Pace75.3#54
Improvement-3.0#352

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#39
First Shot+5.6#45
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#77
Layup/Dunks+7.6#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#229
Freethrows+2.9#45
Improvement-1.3#303

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#27
First Shot+5.7#36
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#130
Layups/Dunks+6.6#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#325
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#299
Freethrows+4.9#4
Improvement-1.7#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.1% 2.4% 0.6%
Top 2 Seed 4.0% 7.7% 2.6%
Top 4 Seed 18.4% 29.3% 14.4%
Top 6 Seed 39.7% 55.3% 34.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.2% 91.1% 77.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 80.1% 90.4% 76.4%
Average Seed 6.6 5.8 6.9
.500 or above 96.4% 99.1% 95.3%
.500 or above in Conference 78.5% 85.1% 76.1%
Conference Champion 6.1% 8.6% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.3% 0.9%
First Four5.6% 3.2% 6.5%
First Round78.4% 89.6% 74.4%
Second Round52.1% 64.4% 47.6%
Sweet Sixteen21.5% 30.0% 18.4%
Elite Eight8.1% 12.4% 6.5%
Final Four3.2% 5.1% 2.5%
Championship Game1.2% 2.0% 0.9%
National Champion0.5% 0.8% 0.3%

Next Game: Kentucky (Away) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 34 - 016 - 11
Quad 46 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 317 Central Arkansas W 94-54 98%     1 - 0 +28.6 +9.1 +16.6
  Fri, Nov 7 18 Kansas W 87-74 53%     2 - 0 +26.3 +21.2 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 11 273 Radford W 89-74 97%     3 - 0 +5.9 -1.5 +5.3
  Fri, Nov 14 350 NC Central W 97-53 99%     4 - 0 +28.8 +16.9 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 159 Navy W 73-61 94%     5 - 0 +8.6 -1.1 +9.7
  Tue, Nov 25 119 St. Bonaventure W 85-70 85%     6 - 0 +18.0 +12.9 +4.9
  Thu, Nov 27 12 Michigan St. L 58-74 35%     6 - 1 +2.1 +4.5 -4.8
  Tue, Dec 2 16 @Kentucky L 77-84 27%    
  Sun, Dec 7 79 Georgetown W 83-73 83%    
  Sat, Dec 13 316 South Carolina Upstate W 92-67 99%    
  Tue, Dec 16 137 East Tennessee St. W 82-66 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 20 Ohio St. L 78-79 46%    
  Mon, Dec 22 259 East Carolina W 88-66 98%    
  Tue, Dec 30 55 Florida St. W 87-80 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 42 @SMU L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Jan 10 37 Wake Forest W 81-76 67%    
  Wed, Jan 14 95 @Stanford W 83-77 69%    
  Sat, Jan 17 67 @California W 80-77 60%    
  Wed, Jan 21 66 Notre Dame W 78-69 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 39 @Virginia L 76-77 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 104 @Georgia Tech W 78-71 72%    
  Mon, Feb 2 64 Syracuse W 82-73 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 2 Duke L 74-80 31%    
  Tue, Feb 10 44 @Miami (FL) L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 99 Pittsburgh W 80-68 86%    
  Tue, Feb 17 29 @North Carolina St. L 83-85 41%    
  Sat, Feb 21 64 @Syracuse W 79-76 59%    
  Mon, Feb 23 9 Louisville L 80-82 43%    
  Sat, Feb 28 63 Virginia Tech W 83-74 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 38 Clemson W 76-71 66%    
  Sat, Mar 7 2 @Duke L 71-83 16%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 6.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 3.7 2.1 0.2 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.9 1.8 0.2 11.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.4 5.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 5.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.4 3.6 4.4 0.7 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 8.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 3.0 0.2 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 1.6 3.9 0.7 0.0 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 3.0 1.8 0.2 5.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.4 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.0 0.0 3.5 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.2 2.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.1 1.6 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.4 5.8 8.9 12.1 14.0 14.4 13.2 10.6 7.0 4.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-2 87.3% 1.6    1.2 0.4 0.0
15-3 49.5% 2.3    1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-4 18.5% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.1% 6.1 3.1 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 34.6% 65.4% 1.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.6% 100.0% 28.2% 71.8% 1.8 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.6% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 3.2 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 7.0% 99.9% 13.6% 86.3% 3.9 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 10.6% 100.0% 9.5% 90.5% 4.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.6 3.1 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.2% 99.6% 6.9% 92.7% 5.9 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 3.5 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
11-7 14.4% 97.3% 3.6% 93.8% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 3.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.4 97.2%
10-8 14.0% 92.0% 2.3% 89.7% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.2 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.0 1.1 91.9%
9-9 12.1% 82.0% 1.5% 80.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.4 1.3 0.0 2.2 81.7%
8-10 8.9% 55.2% 0.9% 54.3% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.9 0.1 4.0 54.8%
7-11 5.8% 21.9% 0.3% 21.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.1 4.5 21.7%
6-12 3.4% 5.2% 0.8% 4.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 3.2 4.4%
5-13 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 11.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0%
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 81.2% 5.5% 75.6% 6.6 1.1 2.9 5.9 8.5 10.2 11.2 11.3 9.7 8.7 6.9 4.8 0.2 18.8 80.1%