North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -13.1 #350
Expected Predictive Rating -21.3 #360
Pace 77.5 #23
Improvement -0.1 #194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #257 C C- D F B-
Defense #364 D- F F C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #324 1.16 #181 -3.3 #291
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #325 0.83 #79 -2.5 #300
Three Pointers 55% #5 1.01 #184 +6.9 #18
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #150 +1.1 #151
Freethrows 11.1 #363 80% #11 8.8 #353
Second Chance 23.5% #345 1.23 #19 0.29 #250
Turnovers 18.7% #301
Total Offense -3.1 #257

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #189 1.29 #317 -2.5 #269
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #252 0.97 #364 -1.0 #261
Three Pointers 43% #112 0.99 #153 -0.7 #209
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #308 -4.2 #310
Freethrows 16.5 #140 73% #215 12.1 #207
Second Chance 38.8% #360 1.21 #332 0.47 #360
Turnovers 13.7% #331
Total Defense -10.0 #364

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #105 0.7% #225
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #163 7.6% #314
Possession Length 17.2 #159 15.8 #16
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #267 0.27 #358
Improvement -0.8 #230 +0.7 #139

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 3.1% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 71.1% 52.8% 75.5%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Alabama (Away) - 19.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 30 - 70 - 12
Quad 44 - 134 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 12 @Florida L 64 - 104 0% -21  0 - 1 -17 -5 F A F -7 A+ F B
 Wed, Nov 12 20 @Tennessee L 66 - 99 1% -15  0 - 2 -14 -1 C- B+ F -10 C F C
 Wed, Nov 19 228 @Wofford L 78 - 86 12% -1  0 - 3 -9 -0 B F C -8 C- F D
 Sat, Nov 22 210 Southern Miss L 83 - 92 17% +0  0 - 4 -12 +8 A+ F F -20 F F F
 Sun, Nov 23 317 Prairie View L 82 - 85 36% +5  0 - 5 -12 +2 A+ C+ F -14 D- C D+
 Tue, Dec 2 278 SIU Edwardsville L 63 - 72 37% -1  0 - 6 -19 -7 D D D- -12 D- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 10 @Gonzaga L 58 - 109 0% -26  0 - 7 -28 -10 C- D+ D- -13 D+ F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 70 @Dayton L 61 - 84 2% -21  0 - 8 -12 -3 F B B- -9 F C D-
 Thu, Dec 18 217 @Charleston Southern L 90 - 113 12% -12  0 - 9 -23 +7 B+ D C -27 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 35 @Miami (FL) L 67 - 105 1% -18  0 - 10 -21 -3 D- B- F -15 F F D+
 Sun, Dec 28 163 Columbia L 82 - 90 18% -1  0 - 11 -12 +5 A- F B -16 F A- F
 Thu, Jan 1 180 @Austin Peay L 83 - 102 9% -8  0 - 12 0 - 1 -18 +5 B- F C+ -21 C F F
 Sat, Jan 3 167 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 8% -2  0 - 13 0 - 2 -6 +2 C F C -8 A- F F
 Thu, Jan 8 320 West Georgia L 73 - 85 47% -6  0 - 14 0 - 3 -24 -8 F A+ F -17 F F F
 Sat, Jan 10 202 Queens L 82 - 89 23% -2  0 - 15 0 - 4 -12 -1 C D B- -11 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 15 279 @North Alabama L 76 - 85 19%
 Sat, Jan 17 265 @Central Arkansas L 77 - 87 17%
 Thu, Jan 22 253 Eastern Kentucky L 82 - 87 33%
 Sat, Jan 24 294 Bellarmine L 84 - 86 41%
 Thu, Jan 29 345 Stetson W 83 - 81 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 167 Lipscomb L 79 - 88 19%
 Thu, Feb 5 320 @West Georgia L 79 - 86 27%
 Sat, Feb 7 202 @Queens L 81 - 95 10%
 Wed, Feb 11 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 78 - 92 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 305 @Jacksonville L 72 - 80 25%
 Thu, Feb 19 180 Austin Peay L 76 - 85 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 345 @Stetson L 80 - 84 34%
 Thu, Feb 26 201 Florida Gulf Coast L 81 - 89 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 305 Jacksonville L 75 - 77 44%
Totals 4 - 25 4 - 14 -13 -3 C C- D -10 D- F F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.5 1.5 0.1 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.8 4.0 0.5 0.0 10.4 10th
11th 0.3 2.7 7.9 7.5 1.5 0.0 19.9 11th
12th 2.3 7.9 15.5 17.3 10.8 2.4 0.2 56.3 12th
Total 2.3 7.9 15.8 20.0 19.9 15.5 10.1 5.1 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.2% 6.5% 6.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.3
7-11 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
6-12 10.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
5-13 15.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.5
4-14 19.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.9
3-15 20.0% 20.0
2-16 15.8% 15.8
1-17 7.9% 7.9
0-18 2.3% 2.3
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.3%