North Florida
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.1#341
Expected Predictive Rating-17.2#357
Pace78.6#24
Improvement+0.3#154

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#258
First Shot-2.1#233
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#246
Layup/Dunks-5.1#336
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.9#6
Freethrows-4.9#360
Improvement+0.6#123

Defense
Total Defense-7.9#360
First Shot-0.6#190
After Offensive Rebounds-7.3#364
Layups/Dunks-5.8#343
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#218
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#30
Freethrows+0.1#181
Improvement-0.3#223
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.7% 1.6% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 13.7% 18.8% 11.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 33.7% 26.2% 37.1%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Home) - 31.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 46 - 117 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 17 @Florida L 64-104 1%     0 - 1 -19.9 -6.0 -8.9
  Wed, Nov 12 14 @Tennessee L 66-99 1%     0 - 2 -12.1 -2.6 -6.9
  Wed, Nov 19 225 @Wofford L 78-86 17%     0 - 3 -8.8 +0.3 -8.8
  Sat, Nov 22 237 Southern Miss L 83-92 26%     0 - 4 -13.4 +4.3 -17.5
  Sun, Nov 23 332 Prairie View L 82-85 46%     0 - 5 -13.2 +1.9 -15.0
  Tue, Dec 2 204 SIU Edwardsville L 73-78 31%    
  Sun, Dec 7 6 @Gonzaga L 67-101 0.1%   
  Sat, Dec 13 78 @Dayton L 66-88 2%    
  Thu, Dec 18 282 @Charleston Southern L 78-86 24%    
  Sun, Dec 21 44 @Miami (FL) L 70-96 1%    
  Sun, Dec 28 134 Columbia L 76-86 18%    
  Thu, Jan 1 165 @Austin Peay L 72-85 11%    
  Sat, Jan 3 176 @Lipscomb L 72-85 12%    
  Thu, Jan 8 311 West Georgia L 79-80 49%    
  Sat, Jan 10 210 Queens L 83-88 33%    
  Thu, Jan 15 242 @North Alabama L 75-84 20%    
  Sat, Jan 17 317 @Central Arkansas L 77-83 30%    
  Thu, Jan 22 258 Eastern Kentucky L 82-85 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 294 Bellarmine L 82-83 48%    
  Thu, Jan 29 344 Stetson W 82-79 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 176 Lipscomb L 75-82 28%    
  Thu, Feb 5 311 @West Georgia L 77-83 30%    
  Sat, Feb 7 210 @Queens L 80-91 17%    
  Wed, Feb 11 164 @Florida Gulf Coast L 77-90 12%    
  Sat, Feb 14 269 @Jacksonville L 72-80 24%    
  Thu, Feb 19 165 Austin Peay L 75-82 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 344 @Stetson L 79-82 41%    
  Thu, Feb 26 164 Florida Gulf Coast L 80-87 26%    
  Sat, Feb 28 269 Jacksonville L 75-77 42%    
Projected Record 6 - 23 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.5 0.1 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.5 2.4 0.3 8.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.0 5.1 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.1 5.2 1.0 0.1 15.8 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 4.4 7.5 5.1 1.4 0.1 19.6 11th
12th 0.9 3.9 6.5 6.5 4.1 1.0 0.1 23.0 12th
Total 0.9 3.9 7.6 11.4 14.7 14.4 13.4 11.4 8.5 6.1 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 93.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 57.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 30.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 9.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 12.9% 12.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 1.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.9
11-7 2.1% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 2.0
10-8 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.1 3.7
9-9 6.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 5.9
8-10 8.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.4
7-11 11.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.4
6-12 13.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 13.4
5-13 14.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.4
4-14 14.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.7
3-15 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.3
2-16 7.6% 7.6
1-17 3.9% 3.9
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%