North Texas
American Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.3 #137
Expected Predictive Rating +1.6 #139
Pace 62.5 #338
Improvement +2.0 #81

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #287 D C D+ B- B+
Defense #45 B+ C A+ F C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #4 1.11 #235 +5.2 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #228 0.56 #357 -2.7 #309
Three Pointers 33% #330 0.85 #338 -6.8 #345
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #299 -4.3 #297
Freethrows 20.1 #61 68% #305 13.7 #121
Second Chance 31.6% #151 1.06 #171 0.33 #144
Turnovers 18.1% #272
Total Offense -4.3 #287

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #113 1.05 #61 +0.8 #143
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #121 0.78 #221 -0.9 #252
Three Pointers 37% #286 0.84 #16 +5.2 #18
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #43 +5.1 #43
Freethrows 22.7 #354 69% #52 15.7 #32
Second Chance 33.4% #288 0.99 #111 0.33 #208
Turnovers 21.6% #10
Total Defense +5.6 #45

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #46 0.0% #162
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.6% #338 -10.0% #28
Possession Length 18.5 #301 17.7 #246
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #87 0.18 #205
Improvement -0.4 #206 +2.3 #61

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 4.3% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 76.9% 88.4% 68.1%
.500 or above in Conference 58.5% 74.1% 46.6%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.4% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 0.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round3.5% 4.3% 2.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 43.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 35 - 56 - 13
Quad 410 - 117 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 276 Northwestern St. W 80 - 53 85% +8  1 - 0 +17 +16 A A+ D- +6 C A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 9 259 Loyola Chicago W 64 - 62 75% +4  2 - 0 -4 -9 F F F +6 A+ C+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 189 @Oregon St. L 64 - 66 50% +6  2 - 1 -1 -2 C+ B- F +1 A B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 42 @St. Mary's L 49 - 80 10% -23  2 - 2 -16 -15 F F A- -2 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 265 Central Arkansas W 74 - 56 83% +5  3 - 2 +9 -2 F D- A- +11 A- A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 255 Eastern Washington W 79 - 71 OT 82% +2  4 - 2 -0 -4 F C+ B +3 A C+ B+
 Sun, Nov 30 317 Prairie View W 72 - 69 89% -2  5 - 2 -9 -6 B+ F F -3 C D+ C+
 Tue, Dec 2 301 Houston Christian W 77 - 75 87% +1  6 - 2 -9 +7 A+ B F -16 F A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 45 TCU L 55 - 65 24% -2  6 - 3 -1 -9 F C- C- +7 A+ D A+
 Sun, Dec 14 190 @South Alabama W 58 - 57 51% +4  7 - 3 +2 -7 F B- F +10 A+ F B+
 Wed, Dec 17 55 Santa Clara L 60 - 63 21% +2  7 - 4 +7 -7 F A+ B+ +14 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 83 @Memphis L 48 - 57 21% -8  7 - 5 0 - 1 +1 -15 F C F +15 C B+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 93 Tulsa W 72 - 67 44% -0  8 - 5 1 - 1 +8 +6 C B+ A+ +3 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 75 South Florida L 70 - 74 37% -0  8 - 6 1 - 2 +1 +0 B- B- B- +0 B F A+
 Sun, Jan 11 105 @Wichita St. L 67 - 78 27% -8  8 - 7 1 - 3 -3 -4 F B C- +0 F A A+
 Sun, Jan 18 158 @Tulane L 64 - 66 43%
 Wed, Jan 21 332 Texas San Antonio W 72 - 57 92%
 Sat, Jan 24 262 East Carolina W 69 - 59 83%
 Wed, Jan 28 93 @Tulsa L 65 - 73 25%
 Sat, Jan 31 115 UAB W 68 - 67 52%
 Wed, Feb 4 247 @Rice W 65 - 62 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 332 @Texas San Antonio W 69 - 60 80%
 Thu, Feb 12 83 Memphis L 64 - 66 41%
 Sun, Feb 15 140 @Temple L 65 - 68 40%
 Wed, Feb 18 158 Tulane W 67 - 63 65%
 Sun, Feb 22 102 Florida Atlantic L 67 - 68 48%
 Wed, Feb 25 170 @Charlotte L 64 - 65 48%
 Sun, Mar 1 115 @UAB L 65 - 70 32%
 Wed, Mar 4 247 Rice W 68 - 59 81%
Totals 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1 -4 D C D+ +6 B+ C A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.9 5.1 1.1 0.0 8.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.9 2.9 0.1 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.9 6.5 0.5 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 7.9 2.5 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 6.4 5.5 0.3 13.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 4.1 6.4 1.2 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.8 1.9 0.0 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 2.9 1.3 0.1 6.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.4 7.4 12.2 17.0 19.3 17.2 11.9 6.5 2.8 0.8 0.1 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 87.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
14-4 69.2% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 33.7% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.8% 13.5% 13.5% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
13-5 2.8% 12.1% 12.1% 12.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.4
12-6 6.5% 9.2% 9.2% 12.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 5.9
11-7 11.9% 7.9% 7.9% 12.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 10.9
10-8 17.2% 4.1% 4.1% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 16.5
9-9 19.3% 2.0% 2.0% 13.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 18.9
8-10 17.0% 1.3% 1.3% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 16.8
7-11 12.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1
6-12 7.4% 0.5% 0.5% 15.4 0.0 0.0 7.3
5-13 3.4% 3.4
4-14 1.2% 1.2
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 12.9 96.5 0.0%