Oklahoma St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.0 #62
Expected Predictive Rating +12.7 #43
Pace 81.2 #8
Improvement -5.1 #357

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #55 B+ C B+ A- A+
Defense #96 C+ B- C B C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.22 #108 +8.7 #6
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #322 0.72 #213 -3.1 #322
Three Pointers 36% #280 1.10 #69 -0.8 #214
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #54 +4.8 #54
Freethrows 20.4 #39 75% #92 15.4 #33
Second Chance 30.1% #205 1.12 #93 0.34 #140
Turnovers 14.1% #46
Total Offense +6.3 #55

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.12 #132 +2.2 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #308 0.73 #139 +1.8 #61
Three Pointers 48% #30 0.98 #134 -2.7 #289
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #136 +1.4 #132
Freethrows 15.3 #85 70% #79 10.8 #298
Second Chance 26.1% #42 1.08 #233 0.28 #86
Turnovers 16.8% #168
Total Defense +2.7 #96

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #12 0.7% #233
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.5% #94 -3.3% #122
Possession Length 15.3 #30 16.7 #85
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #78 0.18 #189
Improvement -1.4 #273 -3.7 #341

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.7% 28.3% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.6% 28.2% 14.8%
Average Seed 9.8 9.7 10.0
.500 or above 91.9% 96.4% 83.1%
.500 or above in Conference 13.7% 18.0% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 5.5% 19.9%
First Four9.2% 10.5% 6.7%
First Round18.4% 22.3% 11.0%
Second Round6.5% 8.1% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.5% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 65.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 26 - 49 - 13
Quad 33 - 012 - 14
Quad 47 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 298 Oral Roberts W 95 - 71 96% +9  1 - 0 +13 +0 D B+ D+ +8 A+ C+ C+
 Sun, Nov 9 40 Texas A&M W 87 - 63 47% +14  2 - 0 +34 +15 A- C A+ +18 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 317 Prairie View W 94 - 67 97% +16  3 - 0 +15 +5 D A+ C+ +6 C- A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 182 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 85 - 69 89% +9  4 - 0 +11 +4 B B D +6 A- A B-
 Wed, Nov 19 75 South Florida W 103 - 95 66% +2  5 - 0 +13 +17 A+ B- D- -5 F A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 22 205 Nicholls St. W 95 - 81 91% +12  6 - 0 +8 +6 B+ F B+ +1 A F B+
 Thu, Nov 27 63 Northwestern W 86 - 81 51% +2  7 - 0 +14 +13 F A+ A+ +1 B+ D B-
 Tue, Dec 2 141 Sam Houston St. W 93 - 83 85% +0  8 - 0 +8 +8 C+ A+ F -1 D- A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 90 Grand Canyon W 84 - 78 61% +2  9 - 0 +12 +17 A+ D+ B- -5 B F F
 Sat, Dec 13 54 Oklahoma L 76 - 85 45% -4  9 - 1 +1 +3 C- F A+ -2 C A+ C
 Thu, Dec 18 346 UMKC W 91 - 79 98% +6  10 - 1 -3 +4 A+ D+ F -8 F B- F
 Sun, Dec 21 231 Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 89 92% +10  11 - 1 -2 +6 A+ D- F -9 F F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 272 Bethune-Cookman W 103 - 77 95% +13  12 - 1 +17 +13 D+ A+ A+ +0 F B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 21 @Texas Tech L 80 - 102 17% -12  12 - 2 0 - 1 -3 +9 B C- A+ -10 D+ D F
 Tue, Jan 6 50 Central Florida W 87 - 76 56% +6  13 - 2 1 - 1 +19 +5 A+ F D +12 A+ B- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 6 @Iowa St. L 71 - 83 9% -3  13 - 3 1 - 2 +12 +9 B+ F A +4 A+ C+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 37 Baylor L 79 - 94 44% -13  13 - 4 1 - 3 -4 +11 B+ B+ B- -16 F D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 74 Kansas St. W 92 - 88 66%
 Tue, Jan 20 45 @TCU L 77 - 83 30%
 Sat, Jan 24 6 Iowa St. L 77 - 86 20%
 Sat, Jan 31 113 @Utah W 86 - 84 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 11 BYU L 82 - 90 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 2 @Arizona L 78 - 96 5%
 Tue, Feb 10 82 @Arizona St. L 85 - 86 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 45 TCU W 81 - 80 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 18 Kansas L 79 - 84 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 73 @Colorado L 85 - 87 43%
 Tue, Feb 24 59 West Virginia W 78 - 75 60%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 @Cincinnati L 77 - 81 37%
 Tue, Mar 3 50 @Central Florida L 84 - 89 34%
 Sat, Mar 7 5 Houston L 70 - 79 20%
Totals 18 - 13 6 - 12 +9 +6 B+ C B+ +3 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 1.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 2.9 1.3 0.0 5.2 7th
8th 0.4 4.0 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.1 3.2 5.1 0.9 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 6.6 2.4 0.1 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 5.6 5.7 0.6 0.0 12.3 11th
12th 0.1 3.3 7.7 1.6 0.0 12.7 12th
13th 0.0 1.5 6.9 3.6 0.1 12.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 4.9 5.0 0.6 11.3 14th
15th 0.5 3.1 4.4 1.1 0.0 9.2 15th
16th 0.3 1.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.5 16th
Total 0.3 2.1 5.7 11.8 16.8 18.9 17.7 13.1 7.8 3.9 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0%
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.5% 100.0% 100.0% 6.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 1.4% 97.8% 0.4% 97.4% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 97.8%
10-8 3.9% 93.3% 0.5% 92.8% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.3 93.3%
9-9 7.8% 82.9% 0.2% 82.7% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.4 1.0 0.0 1.3 82.9%
8-10 13.1% 49.7% 0.1% 49.6% 10.4 0.1 0.6 2.3 3.4 0.0 6.6 49.6%
7-11 17.7% 22.3% 22.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 0.1 13.8 22.3%
6-12 18.9% 5.8% 5.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 17.8 5.8%
5-13 16.8% 0.6% 0.6% 11.3 0.1 0.0 16.7 0.6%
4-14 11.8% 11.8
3-15 5.7% 5.7
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18
Total 100% 23.7% 0.1% 23.6% 9.8 76.3 23.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%