Oregon St.
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.8 #189
Expected Predictive Rating -1.1 #185
Pace 63.8 #321
Improvement -1.0 #244

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 C C- D+ A- C
Defense #220 C C+ D D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 1.06 #299 -4.4 #324
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #236 0.78 #137 -0.9 #221
Three Pointers 48% #45 1.07 #123 +5.1 #34
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #186 -0.2 #184
Freethrows 20.0 #67 77% #47 15.4 #30
Second Chance 24.5% #328 1.24 #14 0.30 #208
Turnovers 18.2% #277
Total Offense -0.3 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.10 #111 -0.9 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #298 0.78 #227 +1.2 #104
Three Pointers 41% #179 1.01 #188 -0.1 #185
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #174 +0.2 #174
Freethrows 19.4 #284 75% #303 14.7 #57
Second Chance 32.4% #253 0.91 #34 0.29 #122
Turnovers 14.8% #293
Total Defense -1.5 #220

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #187 1.6% #306
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.4% #182 -1.8% #148
Possession Length 17.5 #189 17.6 #224
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #350 0.18 #204
Improvement -0.4 #210 -0.6 #222

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 13.0 n/a
.500 or above 11.0% 18.1% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.8% 14.9% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 7.0% 3.1% 10.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 48.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 88 - 15
Quad 46 - 314 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 148 North Dakota St. W 67 - 65 52% +1  1 - 0 -0 -4 C+ F C+ +3 B- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 7 160 Illinois-Chicago W 76 - 73 55% +3  2 - 0 -0 +4 A+ A+ F -4 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 137 North Texas W 66 - 64 50% -6  3 - 0 +0 +5 C- D A+ -4 F C A+
 Mon, Nov 17 72 @Oregon L 75 - 87 12% -7  3 - 1 -1 +9 C+ B- D -11 D- C F
 Fri, Nov 21 251 Evansville L 69 - 73 63% -4  3 - 2 -9 -1 F A+ D- -8 C D- D+
 Sat, Nov 22 198 Iona L 84 - 91 2OT 52% +5  3 - 3 -9 -4 C F D -4 C+ C+ D-
 Mon, Nov 24 168 Massachusetts L 65 - 73 46% -2  3 - 4 -9 -4 B F F -5 A- F D-
 Sat, Nov 29 157 California Baptist L 69 - 75 54% -2  3 - 5 -9 -1 B F F -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 195 Vermont W 80 - 58 63% +16  4 - 5 +17 +13 A+ C- D+ +7 A+ A C
 Sat, Dec 6 323 Southern Utah W 81 - 70 85% +11  5 - 5 -2 +3 B D F -5 C+ F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 161 Montana St. W 67 - 57 56% +4  6 - 5 +7 -2 F A+ D +9 A+ D- C+
 Wed, Dec 17 141 Sam Houston St. L 75 - 85 51% -8  6 - 6 -12 -4 C- F B+ -7 C C- C
 Sun, Dec 21 82 @Arizona St. W 78 - 75 14% -1  7 - 6 +13 +12 A F B +0 A A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 28 55 Santa Clara L 64 - 102 21% -22  7 - 7 0 - 1 -31 -6 C D- F -26 F A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 30 103 San Francisco W 70 - 62 36% +3  8 - 7 1 - 1 +10 +6 A+ F D- +5 A+ A C-
 Fri, Jan 2 144 @Pacific L 53 - 84 29% -17  8 - 8 1 - 2 -27 -12 F C+ F -19 F C- F
 Sun, Jan 4 136 @Washington St. L 67 - 81 28% -11  8 - 9 1 - 3 -10 +1 C B C -12 C- F C
 Thu, Jan 8 121 Seattle W 68 - 55 45% +2  9 - 9 2 - 3 +12 +1 F A+ C +12 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 233 @Portland L 76 - 82 47% +2  9 - 10 2 - 4 -7 +7 B- D- A- -15 B- D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 130 Loyola Marymount L 68 - 69 48%
 Sat, Jan 17 144 Pacific W 71 - 70 52%
 Wed, Jan 21 42 @St. Mary's L 62 - 79 6%
 Wed, Jan 28 130 @Loyola Marymount L 66 - 72 27%
 Sat, Jan 31 222 @San Diego L 73 - 74 45%
 Wed, Feb 4 136 Washington St. L 72 - 73 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 10 Gonzaga L 66 - 85 4%
 Thu, Feb 12 103 @San Francisco L 64 - 74 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 121 @Seattle L 65 - 72 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 286 Pepperdine W 73 - 65 79%
 Wed, Feb 25 222 San Diego W 76 - 71 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 55 @Santa Clara L 67 - 82 9%
Totals 13 - 18 6 - 12 -2 +0 C C- D+ -1 C C+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 3.0 0.7 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 1.2 5.5 1.7 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.4 6.2 5.2 0.3 12.0 7th
8th 0.2 4.8 9.5 1.2 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.1 3.2 11.4 3.8 0.1 18.6 9th
10th 0.1 2.7 10.8 6.4 0.4 20.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 6.6 4.8 0.6 13.8 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.4 12th
Total 0.4 3.1 10.2 19.1 23.6 21.1 13.9 6.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.5% 0.5
10-8 2.0% 2.0
9-9 6.1% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 6.1
8-10 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.0 13.9
7-11 21.1% 21.1
6-12 23.6% 23.6
5-13 19.1% 19.1
4-14 10.2% 10.2
3-15 3.1% 3.1
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%