Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.1 #99
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 #104
Pace 69.6 #165
Improvement +3.6 #35

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #79 B- B+ A- C B
Defense #140 D+ D+ B+ A+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #50 1.20 #122 +4.0 #59
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #235 0.89 #40 +0.1 #174
Three Pointers 39% #233 1.03 #165 -1.0 #227
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #96 +3.1 #95
Freethrows 17.2 #200 75% #90 13.0 #157
Second Chance 31.5% #153 1.24 #15 0.39 #62
Turnovers 13.8% #35
Total Offense +4.4 #79

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #211 1.18 #200 +0.1 #172
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #267 0.79 #243 +0.8 #140
Three Pointers 45% #78 1.08 #272 -3.3 #311
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #261 -2.5 #262
Freethrows 12.6 #17 70% #72 8.8 #353
Second Chance 27.1% #68 1.31 #361 0.35 #265
Turnovers 19.1% #57
Total Defense +0.8 #140

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #81 0.7% #227
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.5% #116 4.1% #262
Possession Length 16.6 #108 18.2 #313
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #60 0.14 #83
Improvement +0.6 #147 +3.0 #34

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 10.5 10.6 10.5
.500 or above 19.7% 33.6% 13.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.3% 3.2% 0.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.3% 14.6% 33.3%
First Four0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 32.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 11
Quad 23 - 63 - 17
Quad 32 - 16 - 18
Quad 48 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 281 Fairfield W 76 - 68 91% -2  1 - 0 -2 -3 D+ D+ A +1 C A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 340 @New Haven W 87 - 43 89% +18  2 - 0 +36 +25 C+ A+ A+ +17 A- C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 200 Navy W 80 - 71 84% +6  3 - 0 +4 +9 C A+ A+ -5 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 208 La Salle W 83 - 69 78% +11  4 - 0 +11 +17 A+ D+ A+ -5 D- F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 162 Harvard W 84 - 80 79% +2  5 - 0 +1 +18 A- A A+ -17 F F B
 Sat, Nov 22 68 Providence L 65 - 77 38% -3  5 - 1 -4 -8 F C C +4 A+ D- F
 Tue, Nov 25 256 Boston University W 96 - 87 89% +12  6 - 1 +1 +24 A A+ A+ -22 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 285 Sacred Heart W 90 - 59 91% +21  7 - 1 +21 +2 B- A+ F +16 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 2 191 Campbell W 87 - 76 83% +5  8 - 1 +6 +7 A F A+ -1 D- F A+
 Tue, Dec 9 31 @Indiana L 72 - 113 13% -28  8 - 2 0 - 1 -24 +3 B- A- D -25 F F C-
 Sat, Dec 13 13 Michigan St. L 72 - 76 16% -1  8 - 3 0 - 2 +12 +11 B+ A+ A+ +0 C C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 88 Pittsburgh L 46 - 80 44% -16  8 - 4 -27 -21 F F D -9 F C D
 Mon, Dec 29 338 NC Central W 90 - 67 95% +8  9 - 4 +9 +12 A+ F B- -3 F F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 8 Illinois L 65 - 73 13% -10  9 - 5 0 - 3 +10 +2 D A B+ +8 A+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 72 - 74 6% -5  9 - 6 0 - 4 +20 +10 D- A+ A+ +11 A+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 10 3 @Purdue L 85 - 93 4% -5  9 - 7 0 - 5 +17 +26 A+ A+ B- -9 C- C F
 Wed, Jan 14 38 UCLA L 72 - 77 32%
 Sun, Jan 18 112 @Maryland L 74 - 76 43%
 Thu, Jan 22 39 Wisconsin L 77 - 82 32%
 Mon, Jan 26 36 @Ohio St. L 72 - 84 14%
 Thu, Jan 29 63 @Northwestern L 73 - 80 27%
 Sun, Feb 1 76 Minnesota W 71 - 70 52%
 Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 70 - 93 1%
 Sun, Feb 8 47 USC L 78 - 81 38%
 Wed, Feb 11 46 @Washington L 72 - 81 20%
 Sat, Feb 14 72 @Oregon L 73 - 79 30%
 Wed, Feb 18 124 Rutgers W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Feb 21 16 @Nebraska L 68 - 83 8%
 Sat, Feb 28 22 Iowa L 68 - 76 24%
 Wed, Mar 4 36 Ohio St. L 75 - 81 30%
 Sun, Mar 8 124 @Rutgers W 74 - 73 50%
Totals 14 - 17 5 - 15 +5 +4 B- B+ A- +1 D+ D+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.1 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.0 0.2 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 3.0 4.3 0.9 0.0 8.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.2 2.4 0.1 14.4 14th
15th 0.3 3.7 8.1 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.2 15th
16th 0.2 2.7 8.1 5.0 0.6 0.0 16.5 16th
17th 0.3 2.7 8.3 5.7 0.8 0.0 17.8 17th
18th 0.6 3.2 6.2 4.3 0.7 0.0 15.1 18th
Total 0.6 3.5 9.1 15.7 18.7 18.4 14.8 10.1 5.4 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.4% 31.0% 31.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 31.0%
10-10 0.9% 6.6% 6.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.6%
9-11 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 11.0 0.1 2.3 2.6%
8-12 5.4% 5.4
7-13 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 10.1
6-14 14.8% 14.8
5-15 18.4% 18.4
4-16 18.7% 18.7
3-17 15.7% 15.7
2-18 9.1% 9.1
1-19 3.5% 3.5
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 10.5 99.7 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%