Penn St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.8#100
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#83
Pace65.3#290
Improvement-2.4#343

Offense
Total Offense+5.3#63
First Shot+3.4#79
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#80
Layup/Dunks+3.1#79
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#245
Freethrows+0.6#139
Improvement+0.9#90

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#177
First Shot+2.3#99
After Offensive Rebounds-2.8#321
Layups/Dunks+0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#271
Freethrows+4.3#8
Improvement-3.3#361
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 3.6% 0.8%
Average Seed 9.7 9.7 10.3
.500 or above 31.8% 34.3% 11.0%
.500 or above in Conference 4.4% 4.7% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 26.5% 25.4% 36.3%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 0.4%
First Round2.6% 2.8% 0.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 89.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 12
Quad 22 - 44 - 16
Quad 33 - 17 - 17
Quad 48 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 288 Fairfield W 76-68 91%     1 - 0 -1.9 -1.5 -0.3
  Sat, Nov 8 345 @New Haven W 87-43 89%     2 - 0 +35.5 +24.0 +17.0
  Tue, Nov 11 159 Navy W 80-71 78%     3 - 0 +5.6 +7.6 -1.8
  Sat, Nov 15 214 La Salle W 83-69 78%     4 - 0 +10.6 +16.7 -4.7
  Wed, Nov 19 179 Harvard W 84-80 81%     5 - 0 -0.4 +16.8 -16.8
  Sat, Nov 22 75 Providence L 65-77 39%     5 - 1 -4.4 -6.1 +1.7
  Tue, Nov 25 227 Boston University W 96-87 86%     6 - 1 +2.0 +25.7 -22.7
  Sat, Nov 29 261 Sacred Heart W 86-73 89%    
  Tue, Dec 2 219 Campbell W 82-71 86%    
  Tue, Dec 9 22 @Indiana L 68-81 11%    
  Sat, Dec 13 12 Michigan St. L 66-76 17%    
  Sun, Dec 21 99 Pittsburgh L 71-72 49%    
  Mon, Dec 29 350 NC Central W 83-63 97%    
  Sat, Jan 3 13 Illinois L 72-85 12%    
  Tue, Jan 6 1 Michigan L 68-86 5%    
  Sat, Jan 10 3 @Purdue L 64-84 3%    
  Wed, Jan 14 32 UCLA L 67-73 31%    
  Sun, Jan 18 93 @Maryland L 73-77 37%    
  Thu, Jan 22 27 Wisconsin L 74-80 29%    
  Mon, Jan 26 20 @Ohio St. L 69-82 12%    
  Thu, Jan 29 56 @Northwestern L 69-77 24%    
  Sun, Feb 1 103 Minnesota W 70-67 62%    
  Thu, Feb 5 1 @Michigan L 65-89 2%    
  Sun, Feb 8 31 USC L 75-81 31%    
  Wed, Feb 11 48 @Washington L 70-79 22%    
  Sat, Feb 14 80 @Oregon L 72-77 31%    
  Wed, Feb 18 120 Rutgers W 74-69 67%    
  Sat, Feb 21 43 @Nebraska L 72-82 19%    
  Sat, Feb 28 21 Iowa L 68-75 26%    
  Wed, Mar 4 20 Ohio St. L 72-79 26%    
  Sun, Mar 8 120 @Rutgers L 71-72 46%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.8 7th
8th 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.5 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.1 12th
13th 0.3 2.8 3.9 1.3 0.1 8.4 13th
14th 0.3 2.6 5.6 2.7 0.2 0.0 11.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.1 4.1 0.7 0.0 13.7 15th
16th 0.3 2.5 7.0 5.2 1.2 0.1 16.3 16th
17th 0.3 2.4 6.7 5.3 1.5 0.1 16.1 17th
18th 0.8 3.9 5.8 4.3 1.1 0.1 16.0 18th
Total 0.8 4.1 8.5 13.7 16.2 15.8 14.3 10.5 7.4 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 3.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 0.2% 95.8% 95.8% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.8%
12-8 0.5% 78.1% 1.3% 76.8% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 77.8%
11-9 1.2% 70.1% 70.1% 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.4 70.1%
10-10 2.4% 38.4% 0.6% 37.8% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 1.5 38.0%
9-11 4.4% 15.3% 15.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 3.7 15.3%
8-12 7.4% 2.7% 2.7% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 7.2 2.7%
7-13 10.5% 0.3% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.3%
6-14 14.3% 14.3
5-15 15.8% 15.8
4-16 16.2% 16.2
3-17 13.7% 13.7
2-18 8.5% 8.5
1-19 4.1% 4.1
0-20 0.8% 0.8
Total 100% 3.3% 0.0% 3.3% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.1 96.7 3.3%