Purdue
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+22.2#3
Expected Predictive Rating+27.5#2
Pace63.7#322
Improvement+2.2#31

Offense
Total Offense+14.7#1
First Shot+12.4#2
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#59
Layup/Dunks+3.1#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#46
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#14
Freethrows-0.8#219
Improvement+1.2#65

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#16
First Shot+8.3#11
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#252
Layups/Dunks+6.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#274
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#281
Freethrows+5.2#2
Improvement+1.0#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.0% 16.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 50.3% 50.4% 15.8%
Top 2 Seed 78.5% 78.5% 36.8%
Top 4 Seed 95.2% 95.2% 78.9%
Top 6 Seed 98.8% 98.8% 89.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.9 1.9 3.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 98.6% 78.9%
Conference Champion 30.5% 30.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 100.0%
Second Round97.1% 97.1% 94.7%
Sweet Sixteen76.2% 76.2% 68.4%
Elite Eight51.7% 51.7% 52.6%
Final Four32.3% 32.3% 5.3%
Championship Game18.9% 18.9% 0.0%
National Champion10.5% 10.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 48 - 4
Quad 1b6 - 114 - 5
Quad 26 - 020 - 6
Quad 35 - 025 - 6
Quad 43 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 291 Evansville W 82-51 99%     1 - 0 +20.8 +16.3 +8.6
  Fri, Nov 7 138 Oakland W 87-77 98%     2 - 0 +8.4 +10.0 -1.6
  Thu, Nov 13 10 @Alabama W 87-80 51%     3 - 0 +29.0 +23.4 +5.8
  Sun, Nov 16 58 Akron W 97-79 92%     4 - 0 +24.4 +20.4 +3.4
  Thu, Nov 20 70 Memphis W 80-71 90%     5 - 0 +16.9 +15.2 +2.0
  Fri, Nov 21 24 Texas Tech W 86-56 76%     6 - 0 +44.6 +24.1 +22.2
  Fri, Nov 28 329 Eastern Illinois W 87-52 99.9%   
  Tue, Dec 2 120 @Rutgers W 79-63 94%    
  Sat, Dec 6 4 Iowa St. W 77-72 69%    
  Wed, Dec 10 103 Minnesota W 78-57 97%    
  Sat, Dec 13 73 Marquette W 85-68 95%    
  Sat, Dec 20 23 Auburn W 80-73 75%    
  Mon, Dec 29 124 Kent St. W 90-68 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 27 @Wisconsin W 79-74 68%    
  Wed, Jan 7 48 Washington W 81-66 91%    
  Sat, Jan 10 100 Penn St. W 84-64 97%    
  Wed, Jan 14 21 Iowa W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 31 @USC W 81-75 70%    
  Tue, Jan 20 32 @UCLA W 73-67 70%    
  Sat, Jan 24 13 Illinois W 82-75 74%    
  Tue, Jan 27 22 @Indiana W 76-72 64%    
  Sun, Feb 1 93 @Maryland W 81-67 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 80 Oregon W 83-65 95%    
  Tue, Feb 10 43 @Nebraska W 80-73 74%    
  Sat, Feb 14 21 @Iowa W 73-69 64%    
  Tue, Feb 17 1 Michigan L 76-77 48%    
  Fri, Feb 20 22 Indiana W 79-69 81%    
  Thu, Feb 26 12 Michigan St. W 75-68 74%    
  Sun, Mar 1 20 @Ohio St. W 78-74 64%    
  Wed, Mar 4 56 @Northwestern W 78-68 80%    
  Sat, Mar 7 27 Wisconsin W 82-71 83%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.1 7.3 9.9 7.2 2.6 30.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 5.4 9.8 7.8 3.2 0.3 27.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.2 6.2 3.5 0.5 0.0 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.0 3.0 1.6 0.2 5.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.7 0.2 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.9 5.1 8.5 11.2 14.1 16.5 15.6 13.1 7.5 2.6 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.6    2.6
19-1 95.9% 7.2    6.1 1.2 0.0
18-2 75.8% 9.9    6.3 3.4 0.2
17-3 46.5% 7.3    3.2 3.3 0.7 0.1
16-4 18.5% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 3.4% 0.5    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 30.5% 30.5 19.1 9.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.6% 100.0% 48.3% 51.7% 1.1 2.4 0.2 100.0%
19-1 7.5% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.1 6.8 0.7 0.0 100.0%
18-2 13.1% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.2 10.8 2.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 15.6% 100.0% 28.5% 71.5% 1.3 11.5 3.9 0.2 100.0%
16-4 16.5% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 1.5 9.6 6.1 0.7 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.1% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 1.7 5.9 6.2 1.8 0.2 100.0%
14-6 11.2% 100.0% 13.8% 86.2% 2.2 2.5 5.0 3.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 8.5% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 2.8 0.8 2.8 3.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
12-8 5.1% 100.0% 4.9% 95.1% 3.5 0.1 0.7 1.8 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 2.9% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 4.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 100.0%
10-10 1.5% 100.0% 2.3% 97.7% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.9% 100.0% 0.8% 99.2% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-12 0.4% 92.5% 92.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 92.5%
7-13 0.1% 67.6% 67.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 67.6%
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 22.7% 77.2% 1.9 50.3 28.2 11.2 5.4 2.6 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.0 95.2 4.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 95.1 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2