Rice
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.9 #247
Expected Predictive Rating -4.8 #241
Pace 64.6 #298
Improvement -0.4 #210

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #232 D- C- C- C F
Defense #257 D+ B- C D- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% #359 1.02 #326 -7.8 #359
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #49 0.71 #233 +2.3 #69
Three Pointers 43% #142 1.00 #205 +0.8 #146
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #308 -4.7 #309
Freethrows 17.3 #192 72% #210 12.5 #193
Second Chance 34.7% #70 0.87 #345 0.30 #218
Turnovers 17.2% #220
Total Offense -2.3 #232

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #256 1.31 #331 -1.2 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #35 0.60 #18 -0.4 #210
Three Pointers 37% #279 1.14 #332 -0.5 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #253 -2.1 #252
Freethrows 19.6 #295 75% #285 14.7 #51
Second Chance 30.5% #170 0.95 #68 0.29 #107
Turnovers 16.3% #197
Total Defense -2.7 #257

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.4% #344 -2.0% #41
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #273 6.2% #296
Possession Length 18.1 #258 17.2 #171
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #176 0.21 #288
Improvement +0.1 #176 -0.5 #216

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 1.8% 2.7% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 14.8% 4.0%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.8% 2.9% 20.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas San Antonio (Away) - 60.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 33 - 104 - 16
Quad 46 - 410 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 72 @Oregon L 63 - 67 8% -0  0 - 1 +7 -2 D C- F +8 A+ B- C
 Tue, Nov 11 108 Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 81 28% -8  0 - 2 -11 +2 D- C A+ -13 F B- C+
 Fri, Nov 14 321 East Texas A&M W 71 - 64 77% +2  1 - 2 -6 -1 B- C F -4 D+ C+ B-
 Mon, Nov 17 20 @Tennessee L 66 - 91 2% -12  1 - 3 -6 +5 C C- A- -12 C- F D
 Thu, Nov 20 173 Tarleton St. L 74 - 90 46% -3  1 - 4 -20 -5 F F A -14 F A+ C
 Mon, Nov 24 159 Kennesaw St. L 84 - 89 OT 32% +1  1 - 5 -5 -0 C C- D- -4 C C+ C-
 Tue, Nov 25 201 @Florida Gulf Coast L 63 - 78 OT 30% +4  1 - 6 -14 -19 F F F +7 A A A-
 Wed, Nov 26 298 Oral Roberts W 81 - 62 62% +10  2 - 6 +11 +16 A+ A+ C+ -2 A F C
 Wed, Dec 3 261 Texas St. W 77 - 72 64% +2  3 - 6 -4 +3 F A+ D+ -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 133 Arkansas St. W 77 - 76 37% -7  4 - 6 -1 +4 D+ C A+ -5 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 286 @Pepperdine L 62 - 84 47% -8  4 - 7 -26 -11 F C+ D -15 F F A
 Wed, Dec 31 93 @Tulsa L 48 - 97 10% -16  4 - 8 0 - 1 -40 -20 F F D -24 F C C+
 Sat, Jan 3 83 Memphis L 70 - 76 20% +1  4 - 9 0 - 2 -2 +7 C- A- D+ -10 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 7 105 @Wichita St. W 66 - 64 12% +2  5 - 9 1 - 2 +10 +2 C+ F C+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 170 Charlotte L 73 - 74 46% -3  5 - 10 1 - 3 -5 +2 D- D- D+ -7 F A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 332 @Texas San Antonio W 72 - 69 60%
 Wed, Jan 21 140 Temple L 71 - 74 39%
 Sun, Jan 25 93 Tulsa L 71 - 79 24%
 Wed, Jan 28 262 @East Carolina L 69 - 71 42%
 Sat, Jan 31 170 @Charlotte L 66 - 73 26%
 Wed, Feb 4 137 North Texas L 62 - 65 38%
 Sun, Feb 8 115 @UAB L 68 - 80 14%
 Wed, Feb 11 102 Florida Atlantic L 70 - 77 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 262 East Carolina W 72 - 68 64%
 Sun, Feb 22 158 @Tulane L 67 - 75 23%
 Wed, Feb 25 75 South Florida L 72 - 82 19%
 Sun, Mar 1 140 @Temple L 68 - 77 20%
 Wed, Mar 4 137 @North Texas L 59 - 68 19%
 Sun, Mar 8 332 Texas San Antonio W 75 - 66 79%
Totals 10 - 19 6 - 12 -5 -2 D- C- C- -3 D+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 4th
5th 0.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 1.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 1.1 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.7 1.7 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 4.4 4.4 0.4 10.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 6.4 7.6 1.7 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 0.5 5.2 11.9 10.6 3.2 0.2 31.6 11th
12th 0.8 5.1 7.8 5.3 1.3 0.0 20.4 12th
13th 0.5 1.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 4.7 13th
Total 0.5 2.6 7.5 13.7 18.8 19.2 16.1 11.2 6.2 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 42.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.3% 0.3
11-7 1.1% 2.3% 2.3% 13.8 0.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 2.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.4 0.0 0.0 2.8
9-9 6.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 6.2
8-10 11.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-11 16.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.0
6-12 19.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 19.2
5-13 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.8
4-14 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
3-15 7.5% 7.5
2-16 2.6% 2.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%