Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +14.1 #32
Expected Predictive Rating +16.8 #26
Pace 77.5 #22
Improvement -0.8 #234

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #41 A+ C C+ C A+
Defense #28 A A C- D+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #13 1.31 #44 +8.4 #7
2 Pt. Jumpers 6% #365 0.74 #194 -5.6 #364
Three Pointers 47% #62 1.21 #6 +7.8 #11
1st FG Attempt 1.23 #1 +10.6 #1
Freethrows 16.9 #216 75% #104 12.7 #174
Second Chance 34.3% #81 0.98 #257 0.34 #142
Turnovers 16.0% #138
Total Offense +7.4 #41

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #271 0.98 #18 +5.2 #34
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #93 0.73 #138 -0.8 #240
Three Pointers 41% #169 0.90 #56 +2.1 #104
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #23 +6.4 #23
Freethrows 19.7 #297 72% #136 14.1 #83
Second Chance 24.1% #17 0.94 #53 0.23 #16
Turnovers 15.5% #244
Total Defense +6.7 #28

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 5.0% #1 -1.2% #82
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 15.0% #13 -11.5% #20
Possession Length 14.6 #8 17.8 #263
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #11 0.18 #209
Improvement -0.3 #201 -0.5 #217

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 4.4% 4.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 13.0% 13.4% 2.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.6% 75.0% 64.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.3% 54.9% 39.8%
Average Seed 8.6 8.6 9.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 77.4% 78.2% 57.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.1% 8.9% 12.1%
First Round70.9% 71.4% 59.0%
Second Round38.7% 39.2% 26.7%
Sweet Sixteen11.9% 12.1% 7.0%
Elite Eight4.6% 4.7% 2.7%
Final Four1.7% 1.7% 1.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Fordham (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 1
Quad 26 - 28 - 3
Quad 39 - 117 - 4
Quad 412 - 028 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 224 Southeast Missouri St. W 92 - 67 96% +10  1 - 0 +19 +8 B C- D+ +8 A+ A+ F
 Thu, Nov 6 349 Chicago St. W 108 - 86 99% +13  2 - 0 +6 +7 A+ F C -5 C D C+
 Mon, Nov 10 252 Lindenwood W 109 - 66 97% +22  3 - 0 +35 +19 A+ A+ F +10 C C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 90 Grand Canyon W 78 - 64 85% +11  4 - 0 +17 +5 A+ C F +11 A+ A+ D+
 Fri, Nov 21 237 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91 - 60 97% +19  5 - 0 +24 +14 A+ D+ F +10 A+ B- C
 Thu, Nov 27 55 Santa Clara W 71 - 70 66% -3  6 - 0 +11 +1 B F A+ +10 A+ A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 28 77 Stanford L 77 - 78 74% +6  6 - 1 +6 +6 F A+ A+ +0 A- A+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 130 @Loyola Marymount W 91 - 70 81% +12  7 - 1 +26 +14 A+ A+ F +9 A+ B+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 325 Central Michigan W 107 - 65 99% +23  8 - 1 +29 +29 A+ A+ A+ +1 C- B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 103 San Francisco W 85 - 75 87% +1  9 - 1 +12 +13 A+ C- C+ -1 B- A+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 272 Bethune-Cookman W 112 - 53 98% +31  10 - 1 +50 +24 A+ A+ C- +20 A+ B C+
 Sun, Dec 21 335 New Hampshire W 93 - 79 99% +3  11 - 1 -0 +10 B C A -11 F A+ F
 Wed, Dec 31 175 Saint Joseph's W 102 - 79 95% +12  12 - 1 1 - 0 +19 +37 A+ D A+ -16 C F F
 Wed, Jan 7 51 @Virginia Commonwealth W 71 - 62 52% +6  13 - 1 2 - 0 +23 -3 C- F B +24 A+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 208 @La Salle W 84 - 72 90% +12  14 - 1 3 - 0 +12 +15 A+ D- F -2 B+ A F
 Wed, Jan 14 183 Fordham W 83 - 64 96%
 Sat, Jan 17 116 Richmond W 88 - 74 91%
 Tue, Jan 20 132 @Duquesne W 89 - 79 82%
 Fri, Jan 23 127 @St. Bonaventure W 83 - 74 80%
 Tue, Jan 27 60 George Washington W 89 - 81 77%
 Fri, Jan 30 70 Dayton W 80 - 71 80%
 Tue, Feb 3 149 @Davidson W 79 - 68 84%
 Sat, Feb 7 208 La Salle W 86 - 66 97%
 Fri, Feb 13 259 @Loyola Chicago W 87 - 70 94%
 Tue, Feb 17 123 @Rhode Island W 79 - 70 79%
 Fri, Feb 20 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 85 - 78 73%
 Tue, Feb 24 70 @Dayton W 77 - 74 62%
 Sat, Feb 28 132 Duquesne W 92 - 76 93%
 Wed, Mar 4 259 Loyola Chicago W 90 - 67 98%
 Sat, Mar 7 86 @George Mason W 79 - 74 65%
Totals 27 - 3 16 - 2 +14 +7 A+ C C+ +7 A A C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.7 16.7 24.6 20.7 9.0 77.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.7 6.2 3.9 0.6 0.0 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.7 1.5 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.8 6.7 13.4 20.7 25.3 20.7 9.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 9.0    9.0
17-1 99.9% 20.7    20.3 0.3
16-2 97.5% 24.6    21.5 3.1 0.1
15-3 80.7% 16.7    9.8 6.2 0.7 0.0
14-4 42.2% 5.7    1.6 2.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
13-5 9.9% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 77.4% 77.4 62.3 12.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 9.0% 97.3% 57.6% 39.7% 5.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 2.1 1.7 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.6%
17-1 20.7% 91.7% 52.2% 39.5% 7.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 4.1 3.6 3.4 2.0 0.5 1.7 82.7%
16-2 25.3% 81.9% 47.3% 34.6% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 5.4 6.2 2.9 0.0 4.6 65.7%
15-3 20.7% 69.6% 41.7% 28.0% 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 5.5 5.0 0.0 6.3 47.9%
14-4 13.4% 57.1% 37.6% 19.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 4.2 0.1 5.8 31.2%
13-5 6.7% 43.4% 28.6% 14.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 0.1 3.8 20.7%
12-6 2.8% 31.6% 23.3% 8.3% 10.9 0.1 0.7 0.1 1.9 10.8%
11-7 1.0% 21.2% 18.1% 3.1% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.8 3.8%
10-8 0.3% 15.9% 12.7% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.6%
9-9 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 74.6% 44.4% 30.2% 8.6 25.4 54.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 4.0 3.3 6.1 21.2 36.6 21.8 9.0 1.7 0.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.5% 93.7% 6.5 7.0 16.3 23.7 24.0 13.7 6.3 2.3 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.6% 94.8% 6.6 0.3 0.3 6.8 14.8 22.3 22.6 15.8 9.4 2.6