Saint Louis
Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.3#50
Expected Predictive Rating+14.9#31
Pace77.6#34
Improvement-0.1#187

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#70
First Shot+6.2#35
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#284
Layup/Dunks+6.8#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#61
Freethrows-1.3#256
Improvement-0.9#268

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#36
First Shot+1.2#133
After Offensive Rebounds+4.6#6
Layups/Dunks+5.7#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#286
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#202
Freethrows-2.5#314
Improvement+0.8#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 3.5% 4.6% 1.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 38.4% 43.0% 29.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.0% 24.1% 12.2%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 10.2
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.7%
.500 or above in Conference 96.1% 96.8% 94.4%
Conference Champion 32.8% 35.5% 27.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four7.1% 7.9% 5.5%
First Round35.1% 39.2% 26.4%
Second Round15.4% 18.0% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen4.2% 5.1% 2.5%
Elite Eight1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
Final Four0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Neutral) - 67.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 26 - 37 - 5
Quad 37 - 114 - 6
Quad 412 - 025 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 211 Southeast Missouri St. W 92-67 93%     1 - 0 +18.8 +8.5 +8.0
  Thu, Nov 6 340 Chicago St. W 108-86 98%     2 - 0 +8.0 +7.8 -3.8
  Mon, Nov 10 306 Lindenwood W 109-66 96%     3 - 0 +32.1 +18.2 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 15 98 Grand Canyon W 78-64 78%     4 - 0 +16.2 +3.3 +12.0
  Fri, Nov 21 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 91-60 94%     5 - 0 +23.6 +12.6 +10.9
  Thu, Nov 27 59 Santa Clara W 71-70 54%     6 - 0 +10.3 +2.5 +7.8
  Fri, Nov 28 95 Stanford W 83-78 68%    
  Tue, Dec 2 114 @Loyola Marymount W 75-71 65%    
  Sun, Dec 7 305 Central Michigan W 86-65 98%    
  Sat, Dec 13 77 San Francisco W 80-74 70%    
  Wed, Dec 17 217 Bethune-Cookman W 86-69 94%    
  Sun, Dec 21 354 New Hampshire W 87-61 99%    
  Wed, Dec 31 175 Saint Joseph's W 87-72 91%    
  Wed, Jan 7 53 @Virginia Commonwealth L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 214 @La Salle W 82-71 83%    
  Wed, Jan 14 212 Fordham W 80-63 93%    
  Sat, Jan 17 115 Richmond W 82-72 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 126 @Duquesne W 86-81 67%    
  Fri, Jan 23 119 @St. Bonaventure W 76-72 65%    
  Tue, Jan 27 62 George Washington W 86-82 66%    
  Fri, Jan 30 78 Dayton W 77-71 69%    
  Tue, Feb 3 135 @Davidson W 77-71 69%    
  Sat, Feb 7 214 La Salle W 85-68 93%    
  Fri, Feb 13 265 @Loyola Chicago W 81-68 87%    
  Tue, Feb 17 106 @Rhode Island W 79-76 61%    
  Fri, Feb 20 53 Virginia Commonwealth W 79-76 61%    
  Tue, Feb 24 78 @Dayton L 74-75 49%    
  Sat, Feb 28 126 Duquesne W 89-78 83%    
  Wed, Mar 4 265 Loyola Chicago W 84-65 95%    
  Sat, Mar 7 74 @George Mason L 73-74 48%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 6.5 10.4 8.7 4.3 1.1 32.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 6.9 8.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 21.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 5.4 5.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.8 1.3 0.1 10.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 3.9 1.4 0.1 7.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.4 0.2 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 4.0 7.1 10.3 13.8 15.7 16.7 13.8 9.2 4.3 1.1 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 99.6% 4.3    4.2 0.1
16-2 94.4% 8.7    7.3 1.3 0.0
15-3 75.3% 10.4    6.1 3.8 0.5 0.0
14-4 39.1% 6.5    2.3 2.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
13-5 10.7% 1.7    0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.8% 32.8 21.3 8.5 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 99.7% 45.2% 54.5% 5.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.5%
17-1 4.3% 92.6% 47.7% 44.9% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.3 85.9%
16-2 9.2% 81.2% 41.5% 39.7% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 67.9%
15-3 13.8% 62.5% 32.6% 29.8% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.2 0.2 5.2 44.3%
14-4 16.7% 44.6% 26.6% 18.0% 10.4 0.0 0.3 0.7 2.1 4.1 0.2 9.3 24.5%
13-5 15.7% 31.1% 22.4% 8.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.5 0.4 10.8 11.2%
12-6 13.8% 20.3% 16.7% 3.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.0 0.5 0.0 11.0 4.3%
11-7 10.3% 13.1% 11.4% 1.7% 11.3 0.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 9.0 1.9%
10-8 7.1% 7.2% 6.9% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 6.6 0.4%
9-9 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.8
8-10 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.1
7-11 1.1% 2.9% 2.9% 12.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 38.4% 23.0% 15.4% 9.7 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.6 4.5 8.4 15.2 2.2 0.1 61.6 20.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 3.0 20.0 14.0 26.0 26.0 11.0 2.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.7 25.0 21.4 25.0 14.3 14.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 5.4 5.0 2.5 22.5 32.5 17.5 7.5 12.5