Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -3.3 219
Results Rating -1.1 179
Consistency 0.16 253
Pace 65.0 275
Improvement +1.5 130

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 224 C D C- D C+
Defense C- 214 C- C+ C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 301 D- 51% 324 -4.7 337
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 294 B 42% 55 -1.0 235
Three Pointers 49% 28 B- 36% 113 +5.6 30
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 158 C -0.4 185
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 179
Second Chance C- 28.0% 246 D 0.92 322 D 0.26 302
Opponents' Steals D+ 10.5% 282
Other Turnovers C+ 7.1% 159
Turnovers C- 17.6% 240
Freethrows D- 0.25 330 C 72% 201 D 0.18 320
Total Offense C- -2.0 224

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 259 D- 14.6% 341
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 19% 259 B+ 2.4% 22
Three Pointers C 83% 210 D 1.4% 304
Total C 56% 162 C- 6.1% 233

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 229 C- 59% 218 -0.3 174
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 207 B 35% 69 -1.0 107
Three Pointers 43% 105 D 37% 298 +2.9 314
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 169 C- +1.6 246
1st FG Attempt C- 1.05 235
Second Chance C- 32.0% 255 B+ 0.91 28 C+ 0.29 114
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 232
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 199
Turnovers C- 15.9% 232
Freethrows C+ 0.29 133 C- 73% 220 C+ 0.21 137
Total Defense C- -1.3 214

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 79 C 10.8% 178
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 306 B- 6.4% 86
Three Pointers C 84% 172 C 0.8% 167
Total C 56% 189 C 5.6% 169

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.3 287 17.2 156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 328 0.17 187
Consistency 0.16 355 0.11 119
Improvement +1.1 130 +0.4 162

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 243 219 190
Results Rating Rank 222 183 155
Conference Record 9 - 9 10 - 8 11 - 7
Conference Finish 7 5 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 4% 2%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 16.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 412 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 340 Maine W 71 - 60 86% +6  99% 1 - 0 C- -4 D- -7 D F A+ B- +3 B C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 88 @Yale L 79 - 86 12% -7  3% 1 - 1 C+ +2 A +12 A+ B- F+ F -10 F B- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 277 Brown W 80 - 70 73% +9  89% 2 - 1 C +0 B+ +8 B- A- A D- -7 F D D+
 Mon, Nov 24 118 Pacific L 58 - 86 27% -17  4% 2 - 2 F -25 F -12 F+ D D- F -14 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 239 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 54% -2  33% 3 - 2 C+ +3 D- -8 D- D- F A+ +11 A A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 148 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 25% +6  69% 4 - 2 B- +7 C+ +2 B- D+ B- B +5 B- D- A-
 Sat, Dec 6 119 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 19% -8  4% 4 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 C- C A+ D- -7 F A D+
 Tue, Dec 9 188 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 56% +8  91% 5 - 3 C -1 F -10 F+ B+ F A +9 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 266 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 70% +16  97% 6 - 3 B+ +14 B- +5 A+ A+ F A+ +12 A+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 17 322 Albany L 55 - 71 82% -8  10% 6 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F A- D -6 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 183 @Marist L 51 - 70 32% -13  8% 6 - 5 F+ -18 F -15 F F C- D+ -3 C D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 267 @Hampton L 59 - 62 49% +2  72% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 F -11 B- F F B +4 C D D+
 Wed, Dec 31 139 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 23% -6  5% 6 - 7 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -12 F+ F D+ D+ -4 F A- B-
 Sat, Jan 3 275 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 72% +4  71% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -8 B +6 A- D+ C+ F -14 C- F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 215 @Drexel L 37 - 56 37% -7  17% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -19 F -27 F C B- B +4 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 107 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 34% +8  72% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C- -3 C +1 C A+ D+ D+ -4 F+ D+ C+
 Thu, Jan 15 104 Hofstra W 76 - 71 33% +6  89% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +6 A+ +14 A+ C+ B+ D- -7 D+ B+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 147 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 46% +3  68% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +4 A+ +15 A+ D+ A F -13 D+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 288 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 55% +9  94% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B +10 A +14 A+ C- F+ D+ -4 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 196 @Campbell W 81 - 69 34% +3  75% 11 - 9 5 - 4 B+ +13 B+ +9 A+ F B B +4 C B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 31 225 @Elon W 72 - 68 39% +6  90% 12 - 9 6 - 4 C+ +3 D -6 D C D- A +9 C- A+ B-
 Thu, Feb 5 187 Monmouth L 75 - 76 56% -8  0% 12 - 10 6 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 B- C- F C- -3 C- A F+
 Sat, Feb 7 288 Northeastern W 69 - 55 75% +10  73% 13 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 F -10 C- F D A+ +15 A+ D- C
 Thu, Feb 12 174 @Towson L 57 - 69 30% -10  0% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D -10 F+ -8 F C+ A C- -3 C C- D
 Mon, Feb 16 215 Drexel W 72 - 69 60% -1  34% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ F+ A+ D+ -5 D D- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 267 Hampton W 79 - 72 71% +5  73% 15 - 11 9 - 6 C- -2 C+ +2 A+ D F D+ -4 F+ A- B-
 Thu, Feb 26 187 @Monmouth L 69 - 82 33% -12  0% 15 - 12 9 - 7 D- -12 C- -2 C- C C- F -11 F F C
 Sat, Feb 28 104 @Hofstra L 64 - 75 16%
 Tue, Mar 3 174 Towson W 66 - 65 52%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -3 C- -2 B C C+ C- -1 B- C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- B B- C 34% 28% 49% C+ C C- D D C- D- C D C- C- B D C- 37% 20% 43% C C- C- B+ C+ C- C+ C- C+
1.06 51% 42% 36% 0 0 1.02 28% 0.9 .26 18% .25 72% .18 1.11 59% 35% 37% +2 0 1.05 32% 0.9 .29 16% .29 73% .19
Nov
8		 Maine D- C C- F D- 47% 21% 32% C+ D F F F A+ B+ D- B- B- F A+ A+ B+ 46% 23% 31% C- B B+ F C+ F F B D-
1.02 60% 36% 24% -4 +1 0.94 24% 0.7 .17 11% .37 65% .24 0.86 68% 9% 20% -9 0 0.85 14% 1.2 .16 16% .42 60% .25
Nov
15		 Yale A A+ B- A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ B- F+ A- C- B+ F C+ A- F F 40% 23% 38% B- F F A+ B- C+ F F F
1.24 73% 43% 43% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.5 .35 19% .33 71% .23 1.35 56% 33% 60% +13 0 1.28 40% 0.9 .36 16% .61 85% .52
Nov
20		 Brown B+ C- F A+ C+ 53% 16% 31% A- B- C+ A+ A- A C+ D C D- B+ F F F 42% 22% 36% B- F F B- D D+ B+ A+ A
1.20 56% 25% 44% +1 +2 1.08 32% 1.3 .41 13% .35 70% .24 1.05 48% 55% 44% +5 0 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 19% .20 55% .11
Nov
24		 Pacific F F A+ F F 23% 19% 58% B- F+ D- C- D D- F A+ D+ F F D F F 40% 33% 28% A- F A+ C A+ C+ F F F
0.87 33% 50% 27% -10 -1 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 18% .24 85% .20 1.29 94% 46% 64% +29 -1 1.58 18% 1.0 .18 21% .45 83% .38
Nov
25		 Bethune-Cookman D- D D D D 26% 19% 55% F+ D- B+ F D- F C F D+ A+ B+ C+ A+ A 42% 35% 23% A A F A+ A C- F A- F
0.97 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.89 38% 0.7 .28 22% .33 63% .20 0.86 50% 33% 20% -10 -2 0.79 45% 0.4 .17 17% .50 62% .31
Nov
28		 Loyola Marymount C+ F A+ D+ C+ 38% 21% 40% B- B- D- B D+ B- A A A+ B D- A+ A- B+ 38% 13% 50% F B- F B+ D- A- F F F
1.04 33% 80% 32% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .38 82% .31 1.00 67% 17% 29% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .35 22% .38 80% .30
Dec
6		 Duquesne B- F A+ D+ D 36% 13% 52% B+ C- B- D+ C A+ F A- F D- B- F F F 38% 11% 51% C+ F F A+ A D+ F C- F
1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18 1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33
Dec
9		 Columbia F F B+ C+ F 46% 19% 35% C+ F+ C A+ B+ F B- F C- A C A+ B A- 43% 11% 46% D+ B+ D- A+ A+ B- D F F+
0.97 35% 45% 35% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 20% .33 67% .22 0.92 57% 17% 32% -4 +2 0.96 40% 0.4 .16 23% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Central Michigan B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D+ A+ A+ C A+ F C- B- C A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% C A+ A+ F A- F C+ F D+
1.22 50% 50% 67% +16 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25 0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21
Dec
17		 Albany F F F+ F F 42% 18% 40% C F F F F A- F F+ F D F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F F C A+ A+ D+ F A+ C+
0.84 42% 30% 26% -13 +1 0.77 17% 0.4 .07 11% .22 69% .15 1.09 75% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.28 30% 0.4 .12 18% .34 44% .15
Dec
21		 Marist F F F F F 22% 31% 47% F+ F F+ F F C- C- F D D+ C+ B+ C C 35% 23% 42% D+ C C- D D+ F C C C
0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21 1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19
Dec
29		 Hampton F F+ D+ A+ C+ 50% 7% 43% A B- D- F F F B F F B F F A+ C 31% 27% 42% C C A F D D+ C- A+ B+
0.92 52% 33% 44% +4 +3 1.14 23% 0.3 .06 25% .41 45% .19 0.96 71% 50% 16% -4 -1 0.91 26% 1.4 .35 17% .36 58% .21
Dec
31		 William & Mary F B+ F F+ F+ 24% 14% 63% D+ F+ B F F D+ F A+ D- D+ D+ F F F 39% 9% 52% C F D+ A+ A- B- D D- D-
0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15 1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30
Jan
3		 N.C. A&T B C- D- A+ A- 40% 17% 42% C+ A- D- B D+ C+ F+ A+ D+ F A+ B- F C- 40% 33% 27% C+ C- F A+ F D+ C+ F D-
1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19 1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Drexel F F F F F 26% 17% 57% C F B- D- C B- F D F B A+ A+ D+ A+ 36% 12% 52% D- A C- F F B+ B F C
0.65 25% 13% 15% -29 0 0.43 34% 0.9 .32 14% .22 73% .16 0.98 33% 20% 36% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.3 .40 23% .23 80% .18
Jan
10		 UNC Wilmington C F A+ F+ C- 30% 21% 49% B- C D A+ A+ D+ F A+ F D+ B- A+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% D- F+ B F D+ C+ A A+ A+
1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09 1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13
Jan
15		 Hofstra A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% C+ A+ B+ D C+ B+ C- D- D+ D- B- A+ F D+ 27% 21% 52% C- D+ D A+ B+ F A F+ B+
1.28 56% 40% 43% +6 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19 1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17
Jan
17		 College of Charleston A+ C+ A+ A A+ 35% 12% 53% A- A+ F A+ D+ A A+ F+ A+ F B A F C- 46% 19% 35% D- D+ B F F F F F F
1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26 1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39
Jan
22		 Northeastern A C+ D+ A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ B+ F C- F+ C+ C+ C+ D+ F A+ A+ B 39% 18% 44% C+ B C+ F F F D+ A+ A-
1.33 63% 40% 57% +21 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27 1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13
Jan
29		 Campbell B+ B B+ A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% B A+ B F F B C+ B B- B F A+ D D+ 31% 25% 43% A+ C A+ D- B+ D+ A F B
1.22 67% 43% 47% +13 +1 1.30 36% 0.5 .18 15% .32 78% .25 1.04 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 17% .29 81% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Elon D F B+ B+ D+ 24% 18% 57% D+ D B- C- C D- A- B- A- A C+ C+ D+ C+ 57% 6% 37% F C- C- A+ A+ B- C- C- C-
1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27 0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
5		 Monmouth D+ B+ F A- B- 34% 10% 56% B- B- C D+ C- F C+ A+ B+ C- D A+ D+ C- 35% 23% 42% C- C- C+ A+ A F+ F D F
1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26 1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29
Feb
7		 Northeastern F A+ C F D+ 38% 15% 47% C C- F A+ F D C C C A+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% A A+ C F D- C D B C-
1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26 0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20
Feb
12		 Towson F+ C F F F 27% 20% 53% D+ F C+ C+ C+ A D- F F+ C- A F B- C 33% 30% 37% C C D C+ C- D B- D+ C+
0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14 1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18
Feb
16		 Drexel C+ F+ A- B- C 36% 21% 43% C+ C+ D+ F F+ A+ C+ A B D+ B F+ F F+ 36% 24% 40% B- D F B D- A+ A- F C+
1.10 47% 45% 35% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.8 .22 9% .32 84% .27 1.06 50% 45% 44% +5 -1 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 26% .21 80% .17
Feb
21		 Hampton C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 10% 51% B A+ D C- D F A+ A- A+ D+ C- B- F F+ 41% 24% 35% D- F+ C- A+ A- B- C C- C-
1.15 69% 75% 43% +15 +1 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 23% .51 74% .38 1.04 57% 33% 39% +1 0 1.04 34% 0.6 .21 20% .35 74% .25
Feb
26		 Monmouth C- D A+ F C- 31% 15% 54% C- C- D A C C- F F+ F F C F D- F 27% 23% 50% C+ F C- F F C A+ C+ A
1.02 53% 75% 28% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.2 .32 19% .11 67% .07 1.21 57% 67% 38% +10 -1 1.19 32% 1.5 .48 18% .20 73% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 8.7 8.7 3rd
4th 25.9 25.9 4th
5th 2.5 22.2 24.7 5th
6th 18.1 2.9 21.0 6th
7th 19.7 19.7 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 40.3 51.0 8.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 8.7% 6.2% 6.2% 14.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.2
10-8 51.0% 2.1% 2.1% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 49.9
9-9 40.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 39.7
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 14.6 97.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 14.0 22.2 57.4 20.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 18.7%