Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#251
Expected Predictive Rating+0.2#166
Pace62.8#339
Improvement-1.7#313

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#214
First Shot+1.0#148
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#327
Layup/Dunks-2.5#266
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#34
Freethrows-1.1#248
Improvement-1.8#335

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#281
First Shot-4.0#312
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#142
Layups/Dunks-1.0#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#216
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#146
Freethrows-3.8#345
Improvement+0.1#186
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.3% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 30.7% 52.6% 26.9%
.500 or above in Conference 33.1% 45.1% 31.0%
Conference Champion 1.8% 3.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 14.6% 9.0% 15.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round1.9% 3.2% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Away) - 14.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 94 - 13
Quad 410 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 321 Maine W 71-60 74%     1 - 0 -0.6 -2.9 +2.4
  Sat, Nov 15 69 @Yale L 79-86 8%     1 - 1 +4.0 +14.5 -11.2
  Thu, Nov 20 254 Brown W 80-70 62%     2 - 1 +1.9 +10.6 -8.2
  Mon, Nov 24 144 Pacific L 58-86 30%     2 - 2 -27.5 -11.7 -17.1
  Tue, Nov 25 217 Bethune-Cookman W 61-54 45%     3 - 2 +3.5 -7.2 +11.5
  Fri, Nov 28 114 @Loyola Marymount L 62-73 15%    
  Sat, Dec 6 126 @Duquesne L 71-81 17%    
  Tue, Dec 9 134 Columbia L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Dec 13 305 Central Michigan W 72-66 71%    
  Wed, Dec 17 325 Albany W 73-66 73%    
  Sun, Dec 21 154 @Marist L 59-67 24%    
  Mon, Dec 29 235 @Hampton L 66-70 37%    
  Wed, Dec 31 130 @William & Mary L 72-82 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 313 N.C. A&T W 74-68 71%    
  Thu, Jan 8 262 @Drexel L 65-67 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 113 UNC Wilmington L 66-71 32%    
  Thu, Jan 15 162 Hofstra L 68-69 46%    
  Sat, Jan 17 151 College of Charleston L 69-71 44%    
  Thu, Jan 22 200 @Northeastern L 66-72 32%    
  Thu, Jan 29 219 @Campbell L 70-74 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 190 @Elon L 70-76 30%    
  Thu, Feb 5 201 Monmouth W 69-68 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 200 Northeastern W 70-69 52%    
  Thu, Feb 12 128 @Towson L 60-70 19%    
  Mon, Feb 16 262 Drexel W 68-64 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 235 Hampton W 69-67 58%    
  Thu, Feb 26 201 @Monmouth L 66-71 32%    
  Sat, Feb 28 162 @Hofstra L 65-72 27%    
  Tue, Mar 3 128 Towson L 63-67 36%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 4.4 3rd
4th 0.4 2.1 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 3.4 1.2 0.1 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 4.3 2.1 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.2 0.4 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.5 4.7 1.0 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.3 2.4 5.4 1.8 0.1 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.0 3.0 0.3 10.6 10th
11th 0.3 1.8 5.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 11.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 2.2 4.2 3.4 0.9 0.1 11.3 12th
13th 0.2 1.0 2.3 2.6 1.9 0.6 0.0 8.6 13th
Total 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.1 7.9 11.3 12.7 13.3 12.4 10.8 8.4 5.9 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 96.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 81.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.9% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-5 20.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.8% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.2% 30.2% 30.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.5% 9.6% 9.6% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-4 1.1% 15.9% 15.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.2% 10.2% 10.2% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.0
12-6 4.1% 9.7% 9.7% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.7
11-7 5.9% 6.4% 6.4% 14.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.5
10-8 8.4% 2.8% 2.8% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 8.2
9-9 10.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.6
8-10 12.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.3
7-11 13.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 13.2
6-12 12.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-13 11.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.3
4-14 7.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.9
3-15 5.1% 5.1
2-16 2.8% 2.8
1-17 1.0% 1.0
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 98.0 0.0%