Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.5 #274
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #236
Pace 62.5 #342
Improvement -4.5 #350

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #296 D+ D- C- F C
Defense #237 D+ B- C- C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #273 0.95 #353 -5.7 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #233 0.84 #71 -0.3 #195
Three Pointers 47% #60 1.02 #177 +3.3 #75
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #248 -2.7 #248
Freethrows 12.3 #354 73% #173 9.0 #346
Second Chance 28.2% #248 0.89 #335 0.25 #311
Turnovers 17.5% #235
Total Offense -4.6 #296

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #196 1.20 #238 -0.8 #205
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #219 0.68 #83 +1.3 #98
Three Pointers 43% #136 1.12 #316 -3.2 #303
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #270 -2.7 #269
Freethrows 18.9 #260 72% #135 13.5 #125
Second Chance 31.6% #220 0.90 #29 0.28 #94
Turnovers 15.9% #220
Total Defense -1.9 #237

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #175 0.4% #202
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #260 4.8% #275
Possession Length 17.9 #240 17.0 #142
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #333 0.19 #249
Improvement -4.1 #353 -0.4 #210

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 6.5% 14.8% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 5.6% 13.1% 3.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 22.2% 11.2% 25.5%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Home) - 23.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 33 - 103 - 13
Quad 49 - 512 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 341 Maine W 71 - 60 77% +6  1 - 0 -3 -4 D+ F A+ +1 B A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 94 @Yale L 79 - 86 8% -7  1 - 1 +2 +14 A+ C D- -13 F A- B-
 Thu, Nov 20 248 Brown W 80 - 70 56% +9  2 - 1 +2 +11 B+ A- A -9 F D- C
 Mon, Nov 24 144 Pacific L 58 - 86 24% -17  2 - 2 -27 -12 F F F -17 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 272 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 50% -2  3 - 2 +1 -8 F F F +9 A+ B+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 130 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 15% +6  4 - 2 +8 +5 B D+ B- +3 B- D A+
 Sat, Dec 6 132 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 15% -8  4 - 3 -4 +4 D C A+ -9 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 163 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 39% +8  5 - 3 +0 -7 F A- F +7 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 325 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 73% +16  6 - 3 +10 +6 A+ A+ F +6 A+ B+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 309 Albany L 55 - 71 69% -8  6 - 4 -28 -21 F F A -8 F A+ C
 Sun, Dec 21 129 @Marist L 51 - 70 15% -13  6 - 5 -14 -11 F F C -4 C C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 242 @Hampton L 59 - 62 32% +2  6 - 6 0 - 1 -5 -8 B F F +3 C D D+
 Wed, Dec 31 138 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 16% -6  6 - 7 0 - 2 -15 -8 F F C+ -9 F A C
 Sat, Jan 3 302 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 68% +4  7 - 7 1 - 2 -10 +9 A- C B- -19 D F D
 Thu, Jan 8 238 @Drexel L 37 - 56 31% -7  7 - 8 1 - 3 -20 -26 F C- C+ +1 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 118 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 28% +8  7 - 9 1 - 4 -4 +3 C A+ D -8 F C- C
 Thu, Jan 15 110 Hofstra L 63 - 71 24%
 Sat, Jan 17 155 College of Charleston L 68 - 72 37%
 Thu, Jan 22 236 @Northeastern L 70 - 75 31%
 Thu, Jan 29 191 @Campbell L 68 - 76 24%
 Sat, Jan 31 169 @Elon L 67 - 76 21%
 Thu, Feb 5 185 Monmouth L 65 - 67 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 236 Northeastern W 73 - 72 52%
 Thu, Feb 12 166 @Towson L 59 - 68 21%
 Mon, Feb 16 238 Drexel W 64 - 63 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 242 Hampton W 66 - 65 54%
 Thu, Feb 26 185 @Monmouth L 62 - 70 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 110 @Hofstra L 60 - 74 11%
 Tue, Mar 3 166 Towson L 62 - 65 41%
Totals 11 - 18 5 - 13 -6 -5 D+ D- C- -2 D+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.6 6th
7th 0.5 2.8 1.0 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.3 3.2 3.0 0.2 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 2.6 5.6 1.2 0.0 9.6 9th
10th 0.1 2.8 7.5 3.5 0.2 14.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.5 9.6 6.2 0.6 0.0 20.4 11th
12th 0.2 1.9 6.8 11.0 7.3 1.2 0.0 28.3 12th
13th 0.9 2.8 4.3 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.4 13th
Total 1.1 4.7 11.5 17.5 20.3 17.9 13.5 8.0 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 50.0% 0.0    0.0
12-6 5.3% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.4% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 1.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-9 3.5% 1.0% 1.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
8-10 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 8.0
7-11 13.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.4
6-12 17.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.8
5-13 20.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 20.2
4-14 17.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 17.4
3-15 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.5
2-16 4.7% 4.7
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.6 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%