Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.7 #261
Expected Predictive Rating -5.5 #252
Pace 66.9 #241
Improvement +0.0 #189

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #276 D- C D- C D+
Defense #232 D- B- B- D F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #32 1.10 #244 +2.7 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #31 0.75 #178 +3.6 #34
Three Pointers 25% #365 0.79 #361 -11.1 #365
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #312 -4.8 #312
Freethrows 15.9 #263 76% #71 12.1 #212
Second Chance 33.5% #106 0.92 #318 0.31 #200
Turnovers 19.0% #316
Total Offense -3.8 #276

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #31 1.22 #262 -5.2 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #318 0.61 #23 +2.9 #11
Three Pointers 39% #234 1.19 #355 -2.6 #287
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #325 -4.9 #324
Freethrows 20.1 #307 70% #95 14.2 #77
Second Chance 31.0% #192 0.94 #62 0.29 #116
Turnovers 18.0% #88
Total Defense -1.8 #232

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #275 2.2% #347
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.2% #305 7.3% #308
Possession Length 17.8 #230 17.0 #133
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #135 0.19 #228
Improvement +1.5 #99 -1.5 #277

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 32.1% 38.1% 15.9%
.500 or above in Conference 35.1% 41.7% 17.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.6% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Home) - 73.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 92 - 11
Quad 412 - 614 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 131 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 17% -13  0 - 1 -30 -22 F F F -8 F A+ B-
 Sat, Nov 8 158 @Tulane L 71 - 79 20% +6  0 - 2 -5 +3 D B C+ -8 F A+ B
 Wed, Nov 12 332 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 78% +10  1 - 2 -3 +3 F A A- -6 C- D D-
 Sat, Nov 15 334 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 78% +12  2 - 2 -4 -2 D- A+ F -2 D- A- A
 Tue, Nov 18 212 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 51% +11  3 - 2 +8 -5 D F F +15 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 283 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 66% +5  4 - 2 -1 -7 C F F +7 A- A B
 Fri, Nov 28 121 Seattle L 52 - 66 22% -5  4 - 3 -12 -8 C F D- -6 F A+ D
 Sat, Nov 29 313 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 62% +1  4 - 4 -13 -2 D D F -11 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 247 @Rice L 72 - 77 36% -2  4 - 5 -7 +0 D F C+ -7 C+ F B
 Wed, Dec 10 263 Southern W 86 - 83 62% -2  5 - 5 -6 +0 A- F F -6 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 133 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 34% -8  5 - 6 0 - 1 -21 -6 F C C- -13 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 190 South Alabama W 67 - 65 47% -6  6 - 6 1 - 1 -3 -2 F B+ D -1 C+ B B
 Wed, Dec 31 125 @Troy L 80 - 100 16% -8  6 - 7 1 - 2 -15 +12 C A+ D -28 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 354 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 68% +3  7 - 7 2 - 2 -5 +2 F A+ F -7 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 210 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 29% +0  7 - 8 2 - 3 -10 -8 F C- D+ -1 D B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 133 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 17% -5  7 - 9 2 - 4 +3 +3 D+ A+ F +1 B- A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 14 315 Louisiana W 69 - 62 73%
 Sat, Jan 17 210 Southern Miss W 71 - 70 51%
 Thu, Jan 22 268 @Coastal Carolina L 69 - 72 40%
 Sat, Jan 24 213 @James Madison L 68 - 74 29%
 Wed, Jan 28 171 Marshall L 73 - 75 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 244 Old Dominion W 74 - 72 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 230 @Georgia Southern L 75 - 80 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 250 Western Michigan W 75 - 73 59%
 Wed, Feb 11 125 Troy L 69 - 74 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 354 Louisiana Monroe W 81 - 70 84%
 Thu, Feb 19 190 @South Alabama L 64 - 71 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 315 @Louisiana W 66 - 65 53%
 Fri, Feb 27 223 Appalachian St. W 66 - 65 53%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -6 -4 D- C D- -2 D- B- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 0.7 0.1 2.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.2 2.2 0.5 3.8 4th
5th 0.5 3.8 1.6 0.1 6.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.4 3.8 0.3 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 6.6 1.7 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 6.3 4.9 0.2 12.1 8th
9th 0.2 4.3 7.9 1.2 13.6 9th
10th 0.1 2.4 7.7 3.3 0.1 13.6 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 6.2 5.2 0.4 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 3.9 4.8 1.0 0.0 10.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.4 0.9 0.0 6.3 13th
14th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.3 7.6 14.6 18.9 19.9 16.7 10.8 5.3 1.8 0.4 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 54.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 24.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.4% 19.8% 19.8% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 1.8% 11.7% 11.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
11-7 5.3% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.1
10-8 10.8% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 10.5
9-9 16.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.6
8-10 19.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 19.8
7-11 18.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.8
6-12 14.6% 14.6
5-13 7.6% 7.6
4-14 3.3% 3.3
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 15.1 99.0 0.0%