Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.7#203
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#168
Pace65.5#285
Improvement+2.7#19

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#270
First Shot-3.0#264
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#216
Layup/Dunks+4.5#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-9.2#357
Freethrows-0.1#180
Improvement+0.5#128

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#141
First Shot-1.4#221
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#54
Layups/Dunks-0.9#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#199
Freethrows-1.9#292
Improvement+2.1#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 10.6% 5.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 70.8% 84.7% 65.2%
.500 or above in Conference 67.7% 75.7% 64.5%
Conference Champion 8.7% 12.1% 7.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.0% 2.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round7.2% 10.6% 5.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Seattle (Neutral) - 28.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 73 - 9
Quad 412 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 140 @Bowling Green L 48-83 25%     0 - 1 -30.8 -21.0 -9.6
  Sat, Nov 8 152 @Tulane L 71-79 29%     0 - 2 -5.1 +0.0 -5.6
  Wed, Nov 12 231 Texas San Antonio W 80-69 66%     1 - 2 +4.0 +4.1 -0.2
  Sat, Nov 15 307 Texas Southern W 77-67 78%     2 - 2 -0.9 -2.1 +1.0
  Tue, Nov 18 252 Abilene Christian W 63-49 70%     3 - 2 +6.0 -3.3 +10.7
  Fri, Nov 21 248 Arkansas Little Rock W 65-56 69%     4 - 2 +1.1 -5.5 +7.4
  Fri, Nov 28 116 Seattle L 65-71 29%    
  Wed, Dec 3 213 @Rice L 65-67 41%    
  Wed, Dec 10 197 Southern W 73-70 60%    
  Wed, Dec 17 172 Arkansas St. W 74-73 55%    
  Sat, Dec 20 180 South Alabama W 65-63 57%    
  Wed, Dec 31 131 @Troy L 65-73 24%    
  Sat, Jan 3 361 @Louisiana Monroe W 76-68 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 237 @Southern Miss L 69-70 45%    
  Sat, Jan 10 172 @Arkansas St. L 71-76 34%    
  Wed, Jan 14 304 Louisiana W 69-61 77%    
  Sat, Jan 17 237 Southern Miss W 72-67 66%    
  Thu, Jan 22 253 @Coastal Carolina L 69-70 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 147 @James Madison L 67-73 30%    
  Wed, Jan 28 183 Marshall W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 216 Old Dominion W 71-67 63%    
  Wed, Feb 4 246 @Georgia Southern L 72-73 47%    
  Wed, Feb 11 131 Troy L 68-70 44%    
  Sat, Feb 14 361 Louisiana Monroe W 79-65 90%    
  Thu, Feb 19 180 @South Alabama L 62-66 36%    
  Sat, Feb 21 304 @Louisiana W 66-64 58%    
  Fri, Feb 27 279 Appalachian St. W 67-60 73%    
Projected Record 15 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.9 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 8.7 1st
2nd 0.3 2.4 3.6 2.2 0.5 0.0 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.0 4.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 4.4 4.2 0.7 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.9 5.3 1.3 0.0 9.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 5.1 2.1 0.1 8.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 3.8 3.4 0.3 8.3 8th
9th 0.3 2.6 3.9 0.8 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.3 1.5 0.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 1.5 0.2 5.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 4.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 14th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.5 6.5 8.5 11.0 12.9 13.6 12.9 10.7 7.8 5.4 2.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 97.1% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 83.7% 2.4    1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-4 54.1% 2.9    1.3 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 20.6% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.7% 8.7 4.8 2.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 48.1% 48.1% 12.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 1.3% 38.4% 38.4% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-3 2.9% 32.6% 32.6% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0
14-4 5.4% 27.3% 27.3% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 3.9
13-5 7.8% 19.3% 19.3% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 6.3
12-6 10.7% 12.6% 12.6% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 9.4
11-7 12.9% 6.1% 6.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 12.1
10-8 13.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 13.3
9-9 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.1 0.1 12.7
8-10 11.0% 0.9% 0.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 10.9
7-11 8.5% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 8.5
6-12 6.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.5
5-13 3.5% 3.5
4-14 1.7% 1.7
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 2.5 0.7 92.7 0.0%