Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -4.0 234
Results Rating -2.4 206
Consistency 0.15 185
Pace 65.9 250
Improvement +6.3 12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 263 D+ C- D C- D
Defense C 183 D B- B- D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 37 C- 56% 239 +2.2 99
2 Pt. Jumpers 65% 5 C+ 40% 95 +5.1 12
Three Pointers 24% 365 D- 30% 329 -10.3 365
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.0 314 C- -1.9 243
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 276
Second Chance C+ 32.0% 135 D- 0.90 336 C- 0.29 229
Opponents' Steals D- 11.5% 333
Other Turnovers C 7.4% 205
Turnovers D 18.9% 309
Freethrows D+ 0.28 260 B 76% 56 C- 0.21 204
Total Offense D+ -3.6 263

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 128 D- 14.4% 339
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 28% 139 C+ 4.3% 131
Three Pointers B- 88% 95 C+ 0.8% 160
Total D+ 50% 295 F+ 7.9% 348

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 87 C- 60% 232 +3.0 287
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 293 C+ 36% 116 -1.6 59
Three Pointers 40% 193 D- 38% 337 +2.2 289
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 305 D+ +2.8 296
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 305
Second Chance C+ 29.6% 154 B 0.94 57 B- 0.28 86
Turnovers from Steals B 11.5% 50
Other Turnovers D+ 6.8% 252
Turnovers B- 18.3% 86
Freethrows D+ 0.33 271 C 72% 161 D+ 0.24 261
Total Defense C -0.4 183

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 41% 46 C+ 12.0% 131
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 17% 38 B 7.2% 56
Three Pointers B- 80% 72 D+ 0.4% 297
Total B- 51% 81 C+ 6.5% 113

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 202 17.4 196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 116 0.17 176
Consistency 0.12 136 0.13 234
Improvement +4.1 17 +2.2 73

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 244 231 206
Results Rating Rank 216 208 156
Conference Record 11 - 7 11 - 7 11 - 7
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 16
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6% 14% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 n/a
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round6% 14% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 103 - 10
Quad 415 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 177 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 28% -13  0% 0 - 1 F -33 F -25 F F F D- -8 F A- C
 Sat, Nov 8 180 @Tulane L 71 - 79 29% +6  77% 0 - 2 D+ -6 C +1 D+ B+ B- D- -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 336 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 84% +10  97% 1 - 2 C- -4 D+ -3 F A- B+ C -1 B C D+
 Sat, Nov 15 307 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 77% +12  97% 2 - 2 C- -2 D -5 D+ A+ F B- +3 C- B A
 Tue, Nov 18 241 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 63% +11  96% 3 - 2 B- +7 D- -6 D D- F A+ +14 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 21 303 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 76% +5  88% 4 - 2 C- -2 F -11 C+ F F A +9 B+ A- A
 Fri, Nov 28 125 Seattle L 52 - 66 26% -5  9% 4 - 3 D -11 D- -8 C- F D D -5 F A D
 Sat, Nov 29 295 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 65% +1  50% 4 - 4 D- -12 D -5 D C F D- -7 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 237 @Rice L 72 - 77 39% -2  23% 4 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 D+ F C C- -3 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 276 Southern W 86 - 83 70% -2  27% 5 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -4 A- F F C- -3 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 145 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 42% -8  4% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F C- C F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 185 South Alabama W 67 - 65 53% -6  4% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 D -5 F A- C- B- +3 C+ B A-
 Wed, Dec 31 151 @Troy L 80 - 100 24% -8  12% 6 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -17 B+ +8 C+ A+ D F -25 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 76% +3  80% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -7 C- -2 F A D D+ -4 F A+ B
 Thu, Jan 8 226 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 37% +0  50% 7 - 8 2 - 3 D -11 F+ -10 F C- C- C -0 D+ B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 145 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 22% -5  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 C -0 C- A+ F B- +3 B A B
 Wed, Jan 14 301 Louisiana W 59 - 54 76% +5  83% 8 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -6 F -11 B F F+ B+ +6 B B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 226 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 60% +3  70% 9 - 9 4 - 4 C +0 D+ -4 C D- F B +4 C+ A+ C+
 Thu, Jan 22 228 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 37% -3  30% 9 - 10 4 - 5 C- -3 C- -1 F D+ A+ C -1 C B+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 202 @James Madison L 57 - 82 33% -17  2% 9 - 11 4 - 6 F -24 F -13 F F B- F -14 F D- C
 Wed, Jan 28 186 Marshall W 72 - 68 53% +4  72% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C -1 F+ -8 D+ B- D A- +7 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 240 Old Dominion W 81 - 64 63% +12  99% 11 - 11 6 - 6 B +10 C+ +3 C+ D- B+ A- +7 A- C+ A-
 Wed, Feb 4 261 @Georgia Southern W 77 - 71 44% +3  52% 12 - 11 7 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 F A+ C B +4 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 272 Western Michigan W 77 - 61 70% +5  78% 13 - 11 B- +7 C+ +2 B+ D D- B+ +6 C+ C A-
 Wed, Feb 11 151 Troy W 74 - 62 44% +9  98% 14 - 11 8 - 6 B +9 B- +4 A D+ F B+ +7 B+ B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 353 Louisiana Monroe W 95 - 84 89% +6  93% 15 - 11 9 - 6 D+ -7 A+ +18 A A+ A F -24 F F C
 Thu, Feb 19 185 @South Alabama W 90 - 82 OT 30% +3  68% 16 - 11 10 - 6 B +9 A +13 A D- B D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 21 301 @Louisiana L 54 - 67 55% -11  0% 16 - 12 10 - 7 F -18 F -13 F C+ F D- -7 F F A
 Fri, Feb 27 170 Appalachian St. W 60 - 57 50% -2  26% 17 - 12 11 - 7 C -1 D- -7 B- F C- B+ +6 A- C A
Totals 17 - 12 11 - 7 -4 D+ -4 A- C- D C +0 D- B C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C+ D- C- 44% 65% 24% D D+ C+ D- C- D D+ B C- C C- C+ D- D+ 42% 17% 40% D D C+ B B- B- D+ C D+
1.03 56% 40% 30% -2 -1 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 19% .28 76% .21 1.09 60% 36% 38% +3 +1 1.09 30% 0.9 .28 18% .33 72% .20
Nov
3		 Bowling Green F D- C+ F F 47% 20% 33% C+ F F D+ F F F F F D- F A- F F 47% 14% 39% C- F B- A+ A- C B B B+
0.68 50% 40% 18% -12 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06 1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19
Nov
8		 Tulane C F D A+ D+ 46% 25% 29% C D+ C- A+ B+ B- F A+ D+ D- D+ A+ F F+ 41% 14% 45% D F+ B A+ A+ B- F F F
1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20 1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54
Nov
12		 Texas San Antonio D+ C+ F+ F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F B+ B- A- B+ A+ B+ A+ C B B- A+ A- 48% 12% 40% F B B+ F+ C D+ F C- F
1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33 0.98 48% 33% 24% -12 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27
Nov
15		 Texas Southern D C+ D+ D D+ 43% 22% 35% D+ D+ C- A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B- C F+ A C- 47% 29% 24% C- C- D A+ B A F A F
1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44 0.94 57% 46% 27% -1 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33
Nov
18		 Abilene Christian D- F F+ A+ D 56% 26% 18% C- D A+ F D- F B+ C B+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F C D A F+ A+ B-
1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36 0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21
Nov
21		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C C+ B- 51% 24% 24% C- C+ B- F F F B+ F C- A A+ A C A+ 56% 18% 27% F B+ C- A+ A- A F C F
1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19 0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24
Nov
28		 Seattle D- B- C+ F C+ 40% 42% 19% F C- B+ F F D F B F D F A+ C+ F 55% 11% 34% F F A A+ A D D+ A+ C+
0.85 58% 40% 22% -3 -3 0.92 37% 0.2 .06 23% .17 75% .13 1.08 79% 0% 33% +7 +2 1.20 18% 0.6 .11 15% .33 59% .19
Nov
29		 Lehigh D D- B C- C 33% 54% 13% F D A F C F A+ B+ A+ D- B D- F F 40% 17% 43% F+ F C- A+ A+ C A- A+ A
1.05 50% 46% 33% +2 -5 0.96 44% 0.8 .33 20% .41 78% .32 1.11 52% 44% 57% +13 +1 1.30 23% 0.3 .06 18% .21 58% .12
Dec
3		 Rice D+ B C- C+ C 35% 44% 21% F D+ B F F C C C C C- F B- A+ B 23% 27% 50% C B D F F B- F F+ F
1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25 1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40
Dec
10		 Southern D+ B- B A+ A- 53% 15% 32% A- A- C- F F F A+ C- A+ C- D- C F F 26% 31% 43% B+ F C- C C A+ C+ C C+
1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38 1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22
Dec
17		 Arkansas St. F+ F C F F 53% 28% 19% C+ F D+ B- C- C D A+ C+ F D- A+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F F F A+ D C- D
0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24 1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +2 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28
Dec
20		 South Alabama D D- B+ F F 38% 16% 47% C F A+ D A- C- A+ A+ A+ B- C+ F A+ B 56% 13% 31% F C+ B C+ B A- F B- F+
1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37 0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26
Dec
31		 Troy B+ D+ C A C+ 40% 27% 33% D+ C+ A A- A+ D D+ F+ D F F+ A+ F F 65% 7% 28% F F F F F F F A+ F
1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16 1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33
Jan
3		 Louisiana Monroe C- D+ C+ F F+ 49% 31% 20% D- F B+ B A D D- D D- D+ F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% C- F A+ A+ A+ B B B- B+
1.15 59% 44% 25% -1 -1 1.00 43% 1.3 .54 18% .20 67% .13 1.08 68% 20% 52% +12 0 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 19% .27 69% .19
Jan
8		 Southern Miss F+ F+ B- F F 38% 21% 41% C- F C- C- C- C- C D- D+ C F B+ C+ D 41% 36% 23% B- D+ B+ C+ B C+ D+ C- D+
0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22 1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29
Jan
10		 Arkansas St. C A+ D- F C 44% 35% 20% D- C- D+ A+ A+ F C- A+ B- B- D- A+ A+ B+ 43% 13% 44% D+ B F A+ A B F D F
1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26 1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41
Jan
14		 Louisiana F C+ A+ A+ B+ 60% 23% 16% C+ B D F F F+ F F F B+ A A+ F A- 37% 23% 40% F B A+ F B- C- F C+ F
0.97 62% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.19 27% 0.3 .08 21% .21 60% .13 0.89 44% 10% 41% -8 0 0.86 16% 1.2 .19 16% .37 68% .26
Jan
17		 Southern Miss D+ F+ A+ A C 49% 21% 31% C+ C D F D- F A+ A+ A+ B B F A+ C+ 38% 34% 28% B- C+ A+ C+ A+ C+ D- F F
1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52 0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Coastal Carolina C- F A F F 34% 45% 21% F+ F C+ F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ C F F+ A+ C 24% 27% 49% C+ C B+ B- B+ D F D+ F
1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30 1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37
Jan
24		 James Madison F C F F F 45% 28% 28% D+ F D+ F F B- B- C- B- F D+ F F F 26% 12% 62% C+ F F B- D- C A D+ A-
0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27 1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Marshall F+ F+ F A+ D 48% 24% 28% B- D+ D+ A+ B- D C- D D+ A- D- B- A+ B+ 40% 25% 35% D B- A+ B+ A+ F B+ A+ A
1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23 0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11
Jan
31		 Old Dominion C+ C C- A+ B 39% 33% 27% F+ C+ C+ F D- B+ A- A- A A- C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 14% 45% F A- F A+ C+ A- F F F
1.17 60% 35% 43% +3 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33 0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33
Feb
4		 Georgia Southern C- F+ D F F 57% 18% 24% B- F B A+ A+ C C+ A+ A B C+ F B- D- 39% 14% 47% C+ D A+ D A C- D C D
1.11 50% 33% 25% -9 +2 0.88 39% 1.4 .55 19% .39 91% .35 1.02 53% 71% 30% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 14% .37 73% .27
Feb
7		 Western Michigan C+ B+ A A A 36% 32% 32% F B+ D+ D- D D- F A+ F+ B+ A+ F+ D C+ 40% 22% 38% D+ C+ C- C+ C A- A+ F A+
1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17 0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10
Feb
11		 Troy B- A A+ F A+ 37% 44% 19% F A D+ C- D+ F A+ A+ A+ B+ B A B- B 26% 18% 56% A+ B+ C- A+ B+ A+ F D+ F
1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32 0.97 50% 29% 32% -6 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41
Feb
14		 Louisiana Monroe A+ C A+ A+ A 55% 25% 21% C- A A+ A+ A+ A F+ B- D- F B- F F F 48% 13% 39% F F F D F C D A C
1.48 62% 77% 45% +15 +1 1.34 57% 1.5 .87 11% .19 73% .14 1.31 50% 67% 56% +13 +2 1.30 38% 1.1 .41 17% .36 63% .23
Feb
19		 South Alabama A A- A A+ A+ 20% 34% 46% F A C F D- B A+ C- A+ D+ F D F F 48% 13% 39% D- F A+ A+ A+ C+ C+ D+ C
1.24 70% 47% 43% +12 -3 1.20 31% 0.8 .26 15% .53 73% .39 1.13 69% 43% 43% +11 +2 1.28 7% 0.0 .00 14% .30 68% .21
Feb
21		 Louisiana F F+ F+ F F 30% 43% 28% F F A F+ C+ F B- B+ B D- A- C F F 28% 41% 31% B F D- F F A F D- F
0.90 50% 29% 18% -13 -3 0.70 41% 0.9 .35 25% .40 78% .31 1.12 45% 38% 67% +11 -3 1.18 31% 1.1 .35 22% .41 74% .30
Feb
27		 Appalachian St. D- D+ A+ B+ A- 40% 43% 17% F B- F F F C- C+ F D+ B+ C D+ A+ A 36% 11% 53% D A- F A+ C A F A D-
0.99 53% 50% 38% +4 -3 1.04 21% 0.7 .14 15% .29 60% .17 0.94 59% 40% 20% -11 +1 0.83 48% 0.7 .31 21% .46 55% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 100.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 100.0% 6.0% 6.0% 15.2 0.6 3.7 1.6 94.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 15.2 94.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.0% 100.0% 15.2 10.5 62.6 26.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 24.1%
Lose Out 58.9%