USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.2 #47
Expected Predictive Rating +16.9 #25
Pace 74.0 #58
Improvement -3.5 #330

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #58 A- C+ C A+ C
Defense #53 C+ B+ B- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #98 1.31 #45 +4.9 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #110 0.83 #76 +2.3 #68
Three Pointers 34% #309 1.14 #33 -1.1 #234
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #42 +6.1 #42
Freethrows 25.1 #1 74% #135 18.6 #1
Second Chance 34.4% #79 1.02 #215 0.35 #115
Turnovers 17.0% #203
Total Offense +6.1 #58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #248 1.07 #73 +3.0 #82
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #122 0.93 #356 -2.6 #341
Three Pointers 42% #159 0.94 #97 +1.1 #138
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #127 +1.6 #126
Freethrows 16.4 #130 74% #230 12.0 #209
Second Chance 29.6% #135 0.86 #17 0.25 #41
Turnovers 17.8% #98
Total Defense +5.1 #53

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #223 -0.7% #106
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.3% #27 -2.4% #138
Possession Length 16.1 #66 17.9 #282
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #137 0.16 #152
Improvement -3.2 #337 -0.3 #205

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.0% 2.7% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 8.8% 17.7% 6.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 64.2% 81.8% 58.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 64.1% 81.7% 58.6%
Average Seed 8.6 8.1 8.8
.500 or above 99.4% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 48.4% 68.3% 42.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four11.2% 8.8% 11.9%
First Round57.9% 76.7% 52.1%
Second Round26.4% 37.3% 23.0%
Sweet Sixteen5.6% 8.8% 4.6%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.9% 1.2%
Final Four0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 23.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 26 - 211 - 11
Quad 36 - 016 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 249 Cal Poly W 94 - 64 95% +12  1 - 0 +22 +3 B D D +14 B+ A- A+
 Sun, Nov 9 312 Manhattan W 114 - 83 97% +16  2 - 0 +19 +16 C- A+ C+ -1 C A- D+
 Fri, Nov 14 91 Illinois St. W 87 - 67 69% +12  3 - 0 +26 +19 A+ A+ A+ +7 A+ C- C+
 Thu, Nov 20 125 Troy W 107 - 106 3OT 87% +2  4 - 0 -0 +1 C- F A+ -1 A- F B+
 Mon, Nov 24 78 Boise St. W 70 - 67 65% +2  5 - 0 +10 +3 A- C- F +8 A+ C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 49 Seton Hall W 83 - 81 52% -2  6 - 0 +13 +20 A+ A+ C -8 F A+ D
 Wed, Nov 26 82 Arizona St. W 88 - 75 67% +4  7 - 0 +20 +22 A+ A+ C+ -2 C- A+ B+
 Tue, Dec 2 72 @Oregon W 82 - 77 52% -1  8 - 0 1 - 0 +16 +16 A+ A- F +0 D- B A-
 Sat, Dec 6 46 Washington L 76 - 84 61% +8  8 - 1 1 - 1 +0 +3 D C- A+ -3 B+ D- B
 Tue, Dec 9 222 @San Diego W 94 - 81 86% +5  9 - 1 +13 +11 A+ C F +0 B+ C C
 Sun, Dec 14 136 Washington St. W 68 - 61 88% +6  10 - 1 +5 -6 F D- D+ +11 A- A+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 332 Texas San Antonio W 97 - 70 98% +10  11 - 1 +13 +15 A+ B- C+ -3 B- F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 66 - 96 6% -16  11 - 2 1 - 2 -2 -2 C+ C F +6 A A+ C
 Mon, Jan 5 13 @Michigan St. L 51 - 80 16% -14  11 - 3 1 - 3 -7 -8 F C+ F +2 F A+ C-
 Fri, Jan 9 76 @Minnesota W 70 - 69 OT 53% +3  12 - 3 2 - 3 +12 +7 A+ F F +4 B C+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 112 Maryland W 88 - 71 83% +4  13 - 3 3 - 3 +18 +20 A C+ A+ -2 D- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 3 Purdue L 74 - 82 24%
 Wed, Jan 21 63 Northwestern W 80 - 75 70%
 Sun, Jan 25 39 @Wisconsin L 78 - 83 32%
 Wed, Jan 28 22 @Iowa L 69 - 77 24%
 Sat, Jan 31 124 Rutgers W 80 - 68 87%
 Tue, Feb 3 31 Indiana L 79 - 80 50%
 Sun, Feb 8 99 @Penn St. W 81 - 78 62%
 Wed, Feb 11 36 @Ohio St. L 76 - 81 31%
 Wed, Feb 18 8 Illinois L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 72 Oregon W 80 - 74 72%
 Tue, Feb 24 38 @UCLA L 73 - 78 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 16 Nebraska L 75 - 78 38%
 Wed, Mar 4 46 @Washington L 76 - 79 39%
 Sat, Mar 7 38 UCLA W 76 - 75 54%
Totals 19 - 11 9 - 11 +11 +6 A- C+ C +5 C+ B+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.0 0.6 0.0 3.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 5.2 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.8 4.9 0.7 0.0 11.0 8th
9th 0.2 3.1 6.9 1.9 0.1 12.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.9 7.2 3.9 0.3 13.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 5.7 5.7 1.0 0.0 13.2 11th
12th 0.3 3.7 5.8 1.7 0.1 11.6 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 4.1 1.9 0.2 7.8 13th
14th 0.4 2.2 1.4 0.1 0.0 4.0 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.0 10.3 15.6 18.5 18.1 14.1 9.0 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 4.2% 0.0    0.0
15-5 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 4.2% 95.8% 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 100.0% 1.0% 99.0% 4.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.9% 100.0% 2.4% 97.6% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-7 4.6% 99.7% 0.6% 99.0% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 99.7%
12-8 9.0% 99.0% 0.6% 98.4% 7.2 0.0 0.5 2.0 3.0 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 14.1% 96.4% 0.3% 96.1% 8.1 0.2 0.9 2.8 4.4 3.8 1.3 0.2 0.5 96.3%
10-10 18.1% 88.6% 0.4% 88.2% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 5.4 4.4 1.3 0.0 2.1 88.5%
9-11 18.5% 66.1% 0.1% 65.9% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.9 4.2 0.0 6.3 66.0%
8-12 15.6% 34.1% 0.0% 34.1% 10.7 0.1 0.2 1.2 3.7 0.1 10.3 34.1%
7-13 10.3% 9.1% 9.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 9.3 9.1%
6-14 5.0% 0.9% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 0.9%
5-15 1.8% 1.8
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 64.2% 0.3% 63.9% 8.6 35.8 64.1%