USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#31
Expected Predictive Rating+18.8#12
Pace74.4#73
Improvement-1.2#279

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#28
First Shot+7.6#25
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#130
Layup/Dunks+2.4#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#173
Freethrows+4.1#16
Improvement+0.8#95

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#44
First Shot+5.0#46
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#179
Layups/Dunks-1.0#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#222
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#78
Freethrows+3.3#22
Improvement-2.1#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.2% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 4.1% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 14.6% 18.5% 8.3%
Top 6 Seed 35.0% 41.7% 24.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.9% 85.1% 68.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.5% 84.7% 68.4%
Average Seed 6.9 6.6 7.5
.500 or above 98.0% 99.3% 95.8%
.500 or above in Conference 67.9% 76.9% 53.2%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.5%
First Four6.6% 5.6% 8.3%
First Round75.4% 82.2% 64.2%
Second Round47.2% 53.0% 37.6%
Sweet Sixteen18.3% 21.8% 12.6%
Elite Eight6.9% 8.3% 4.7%
Final Four2.4% 2.9% 1.6%
Championship Game1.0% 1.2% 0.6%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.3%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 27 - 212 - 10
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 45 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 245 Cal Poly W 94-64 96%     1 - 0 +22.2 +3.3 +14.3
  Sun, Nov 9 318 Manhattan W 114-83 98%     2 - 0 +19.6 +13.4 +1.6
  Fri, Nov 14 102 Illinois St. W 87-67 80%     3 - 0 +24.7 +17.4 +7.7
  Thu, Nov 20 131 Troy W 107-106 3OT 90%     4 - 0 +0.0 +1.8 -2.1
  Mon, Nov 24 61 Boise St. W 70-67 66%     5 - 0 +12.3 +4.0 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 25 76 Seton Hall W 83-81 71%     6 - 0 +9.6 +16.7 -7.1
  Wed, Nov 26 83 Arizona St. W 88-75 73%     7 - 0 +19.9 +21.8 -1.1
  Tue, Dec 2 80 @Oregon W 79-76 62%    
  Sat, Dec 6 48 Washington W 81-75 71%    
  Tue, Dec 9 247 @San Diego W 89-74 92%    
  Sun, Dec 14 157 Washington St. W 91-74 94%    
  Wed, Dec 17 231 Texas San Antonio W 89-69 97%    
  Sun, Dec 21 254 Brown W 82-61 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 74-89 9%    
  Mon, Jan 5 12 @Michigan St. L 71-79 24%    
  Fri, Jan 9 103 @Minnesota W 74-68 71%    
  Tue, Jan 13 93 Maryland W 84-73 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 3 Purdue L 75-81 30%    
  Wed, Jan 21 56 Northwestern W 80-73 73%    
  Sun, Jan 25 27 @Wisconsin L 79-83 37%    
  Wed, Jan 28 21 @Iowa L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Jan 31 120 Rutgers W 81-68 89%    
  Tue, Feb 3 22 Indiana W 78-77 54%    
  Sun, Feb 8 100 @Penn St. W 81-75 69%    
  Wed, Feb 11 20 @Ohio St. L 77-82 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 13 Illinois L 81-83 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 80 Oregon W 82-73 80%    
  Tue, Feb 24 32 @UCLA L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 43 Nebraska W 83-78 66%    
  Wed, Mar 4 48 @Washington L 77-78 49%    
  Sat, Mar 7 32 UCLA W 75-72 61%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.3 0.8 0.1 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.8 3.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.3 1.4 0.2 9.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 4.8 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 4.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.3 1.0 0.1 9.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.4 4.8 1.8 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 4.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.3 0.6 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 5.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.3 3.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.9 3.6 5.4 8.7 11.3 13.2 13.7 12.8 10.7 8.1 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 85.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 79.8% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 36.8% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 12.9% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 2.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 17.9% 82.1% 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 1.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.7% 100.0% 7.7% 92.3% 3.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.0% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 3.8 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.1% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.4 0.1 100.0%
13-7 10.7% 99.8% 2.3% 97.5% 5.6 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.0 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 12.8% 99.2% 1.4% 97.9% 6.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.5 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
11-9 13.7% 97.1% 0.8% 96.3% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 3.3 3.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.4 97.1%
10-10 13.2% 91.4% 0.4% 91.0% 8.7 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.9 3.6 2.6 0.7 1.1 91.4%
9-11 11.3% 72.9% 0.3% 72.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.9 2.3 0.0 3.1 72.8%
8-12 8.7% 41.5% 0.0% 41.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 0.1 0.0 5.1 41.5%
7-13 5.4% 13.7% 0.3% 13.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 4.7 13.4%
6-14 3.6% 1.6% 1.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.6%
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 78.9% 1.8% 77.1% 6.9 0.9 2.2 4.4 7.2 9.2 11.2 10.9 9.8 9.2 7.9 5.7 0.3 0.0 21.1 78.5%