Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.0#19
Expected Predictive Rating+18.4#15
Pace74.3#76
Improvement-1.7#314

Offense
Total Offense+10.6#11
First Shot+8.6#17
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#76
Layup/Dunks+3.7#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#19
Freethrows-1.3#257
Improvement-2.6#353

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#42
First Shot+1.9#112
After Offensive Rebounds+3.6#17
Layups/Dunks+5.2#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
Freethrows-3.1#331
Improvement+0.9#99
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
#1 Seed 5.1% 6.8% 2.6%
Top 2 Seed 14.3% 18.4% 8.0%
Top 4 Seed 41.8% 48.2% 32.1%
Top 6 Seed 66.8% 73.3% 57.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.6% 94.7% 87.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 90.7% 94.0% 86.0%
Average Seed 5.1 4.7 5.6
.500 or above 97.9% 98.9% 96.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.6% 80.8% 72.8%
Conference Champion 11.9% 14.2% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.9% 1.4%
First Four3.0% 2.2% 4.1%
First Round90.3% 93.6% 85.3%
Second Round70.2% 74.9% 63.2%
Sweet Sixteen37.1% 41.2% 30.9%
Elite Eight16.3% 18.8% 12.4%
Final Four6.8% 8.1% 4.8%
Championship Game2.6% 3.3% 1.7%
National Champion1.0% 1.3% 0.5%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Neutral) - 59.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b5 - 39 - 8
Quad 27 - 215 - 10
Quad 32 - 017 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 176 Lipscomb W 105-61 96%     1 - 0 +39.7 +25.1 +11.8
  Sat, Nov 8 68 @Central Florida W 105-93 69%     2 - 0 +23.0 +28.9 -6.6
  Wed, Nov 12 258 Eastern Kentucky W 92-62 98%     3 - 0 +21.7 +9.6 +10.9
  Sat, Nov 15 363 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104-75 99.5%    4 - 0 +10.4 +15.9 -7.2
  Thu, Nov 20 307 Texas Southern W 109-74 99%     5 - 0 +24.1 +24.2 -2.3
  Wed, Nov 26 132 Western Kentucky W 83-78 90%     6 - 0 +6.9 +1.2 +5.0
  Thu, Nov 27 53 Virginia Commonwealth W 89-74 71%     7 - 0 +25.1 +16.9 +7.3
  Fri, Nov 28 30 St. Mary's W 75-72 60%    
  Wed, Dec 3 42 SMU W 87-80 74%    
  Sat, Dec 13 317 Central Arkansas W 91-64 99%    
  Wed, Dec 17 70 @Memphis W 83-78 68%    
  Sun, Dec 21 37 @Wake Forest W 81-80 53%    
  Mon, Dec 29 345 New Haven W 88-58 99.7%   
  Sat, Jan 3 88 @South Carolina W 81-74 73%    
  Tue, Jan 6 10 Alabama W 90-89 50%    
  Sat, Jan 10 40 LSU W 86-79 73%    
  Wed, Jan 14 36 @Texas W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Jan 17 17 Florida W 83-81 57%    
  Tue, Jan 20 25 @Arkansas L 81-82 45%    
  Sat, Jan 24 84 @Mississippi St. W 83-77 71%    
  Tue, Jan 27 16 Kentucky W 83-82 55%    
  Sat, Jan 31 49 @Mississippi W 79-76 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 52 Oklahoma W 87-78 78%    
  Tue, Feb 10 23 @Auburn L 81-83 43%    
  Sat, Feb 14 60 Texas A&M W 89-79 81%    
  Wed, Feb 18 33 @Missouri L 82-83 49%    
  Sat, Feb 21 14 Tennessee W 80-79 54%    
  Wed, Feb 25 34 Georgia W 91-85 70%    
  Sat, Feb 28 16 @Kentucky L 80-85 35%    
  Wed, Mar 4 49 Mississippi W 82-73 78%    
  Sat, Mar 7 14 @Tennessee L 77-82 34%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 1.6 3.4 3.7 2.1 0.7 0.1 11.9 1st
2nd 0.2 2.2 4.6 3.2 0.8 0.1 11.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.1 3.5 0.7 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.6 4.3 4.1 0.7 0.0 9.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 5.3 1.3 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 5.0 2.2 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 3.1 3.9 0.4 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 4.3 1.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.9 2.3 0.2 5.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.4 0.1 4.2 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 1.6 0.2 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 16th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.9 6.1 8.9 11.4 13.8 13.8 13.1 10.5 7.3 4.6 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.7    0.6 0.0
16-2 94.8% 2.1    1.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 81.5% 3.7    2.3 1.3 0.1
14-4 46.9% 3.4    1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 15.5% 1.6    0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.1% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 6.4 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 46.3% 53.7% 1.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.7% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 2.2% 100.0% 29.3% 70.7% 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 4.6% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.9 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 100.0%
14-4 7.3% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 2.5 1.1 2.6 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 10.5% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 3.2 0.6 2.2 3.9 2.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
12-6 13.1% 100.0% 12.7% 87.3% 3.9 0.2 1.0 3.7 4.3 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 13.8% 100.0% 7.5% 92.4% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 4.1 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
10-8 13.8% 99.8% 4.2% 95.6% 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.8 3.8 4.0 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
9-9 11.4% 98.7% 2.9% 95.8% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 3.0 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 98.7%
8-10 8.9% 92.4% 2.2% 90.1% 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.7 92.2%
7-11 6.1% 71.3% 0.6% 70.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.1 1.8 71.1%
6-12 3.9% 36.7% 0.5% 36.2% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.1 2.5 36.4%
5-13 2.0% 8.6% 8.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.9 8.6%
4-14 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.9 1.1%
3-15 0.4% 0.4
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 91.6% 9.5% 82.1% 5.1 5.1 9.2 13.6 13.9 13.1 11.9 8.6 6.1 4.1 3.5 2.4 0.2 8.4 90.7%