Vanderbilt
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +20.3 #9
Expected Predictive Rating +26.7 #6
Pace 75.3 #46
Improvement -0.5 #214

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #7 A+ B A+ B+ C+
Defense #12 A+ A B+ F B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #147 1.41 #5 +5.4 #29
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #245 0.82 #83 -0.7 #212
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.16 #23 +4.4 #41
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #11 +9.1 #11
Freethrows 19.0 #103 78% #39 14.8 #61
Second Chance 33.0% #118 1.17 #43 0.39 #66
Turnovers 12.8% #14
Total Offense +11.2 #7

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #302 1.03 #38 +4.9 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #51 0.74 #144 -1.6 #291
Three Pointers 41% #193 0.81 #6 +4.3 #36
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #13 +7.6 #13
Freethrows 20.7 #325 74% #259 15.4 #37
Second Chance 24.4% #18 0.96 #77 0.23 #19
Turnovers 19.0% #59
Total Defense +9.1 #12

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #120 -1.9% #44
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 16.7% #7 -13.2% #12
Possession Length 15.4 #35 17.6 #237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #41 0.10 #16
Improvement -2.5 #323 +2.0 #67

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.0% 7.3% 3.1%
#1 Seed 29.3% 34.1% 18.7%
Top 2 Seed 63.4% 70.0% 48.7%
Top 4 Seed 95.5% 97.4% 91.1%
Top 6 Seed 99.5% 99.8% 98.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 2.3 2.1 2.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.7% 98.3%
Conference Champion 55.5% 63.1% 38.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round97.0% 97.5% 95.7%
Sweet Sixteen68.9% 70.2% 65.8%
Elite Eight39.8% 41.6% 35.8%
Final Four20.9% 22.2% 17.8%
Championship Game10.2% 10.9% 8.5%
National Champion4.6% 5.0% 3.8%

Next Game: Texas (Away) - 69.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 34 - 3
Quad 1b9 - 213 - 4
Quad 28 - 121 - 5
Quad 32 - 023 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 167 Lipscomb W 105 - 61 98% +29  1 - 0 +40 +24 A+ F A+ +13 A+ C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 50 @Central Florida W 105 - 93 74% +12  2 - 0 +26 +31 A+ A+ A+ -6 D B- B-
 Wed, Nov 12 253 Eastern Kentucky W 92 - 62 99% +19  3 - 0 +22 +9 A+ F C +11 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 327 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 104 - 75 99% +16  4 - 0 +16 +18 C A+ A+ -4 B B+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 334 Texas Southern W 109 - 74 100% +24  5 - 0 +21 +24 A+ A+ A- -5 F A+ C+
 Wed, Nov 26 150 Western Kentucky W 83 - 78 96% +6  6 - 0 +5 +0 C C- F +5 D A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 51 Virginia Commonwealth W 89 - 74 82% +10  7 - 0 +26 +14 A+ C F +10 A+ B- B
 Fri, Nov 28 42 St. Mary's W 96 - 71 78% +13  8 - 0 +37 +25 A+ A+ A+ +11 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 3 30 SMU W 88 - 69 80% +9  9 - 0 +31 +21 A+ C+ A+ +10 A+ F A
 Sat, Dec 13 265 Central Arkansas W 83 - 72 99% +15  10 - 0 +2 +0 F A+ C +1 A- C+ C-
 Wed, Dec 17 83 @Memphis W 77 - 70 OT 84% +3  11 - 0 +17 -2 F D F +18 A+ A+ A
 Sun, Dec 21 57 @Wake Forest W 98 - 67 78% +19  12 - 0 +43 +28 A+ D+ A+ +14 A+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 340 New Haven W 96 - 53 100% +24  13 - 0 +29 +22 A+ A- A- +8 A- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 69 @South Carolina W 83 - 71 81% +10  14 - 0 1 - 0 +23 +22 A+ B A+ +2 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 7 14 Alabama W 96 - 90 70% +5  15 - 0 2 - 0 +21 +11 C+ A- A+ +9 A+ F A
 Sat, Jan 10 44 LSU W 84 - 73 86% +11  16 - 0 3 - 0 +20 +13 B+ D A+ +7 A A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 41 @Texas W 85 - 80 69%
 Sat, Jan 17 12 Florida W 82 - 79 63%
 Tue, Jan 20 26 @Arkansas W 87 - 85 57%
 Sat, Jan 24 66 @Mississippi St. W 83 - 74 80%
 Tue, Jan 27 25 Kentucky W 83 - 75 77%
 Sat, Jan 31 65 @Mississippi W 80 - 71 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 54 Oklahoma W 87 - 74 89%
 Tue, Feb 10 27 @Auburn W 83 - 81 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 40 Texas A&M W 89 - 79 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 53 @Missouri W 84 - 77 74%
 Sat, Feb 21 20 Tennessee W 79 - 72 73%
 Wed, Feb 25 23 Georgia W 91 - 84 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 25 @Kentucky W 80 - 78 57%
 Wed, Mar 4 65 Mississippi W 83 - 68 91%
 Sat, Mar 7 20 @Tennessee W 76 - 75 53%
Totals 27 - 4 14 - 4 +20 +11 A+ B A+ +9 A+ A B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 4.8 12.7 15.9 13.2 6.5 1.8 55.5 1st
2nd 0.3 3.7 8.4 5.9 1.6 0.1 20.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 10.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 2.5 0.3 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.0 0.4 3.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.6 7.2 12.3 16.6 19.1 17.5 13.4 6.5 1.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.8    1.8
17-1 100.0% 6.5    6.4 0.0
16-2 98.9% 13.2    12.3 1.0
15-3 90.5% 15.9    12.0 3.6 0.3
14-4 66.8% 12.7    6.1 5.3 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 29.2% 4.8    1.0 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 5.1% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 55.5% 55.5 39.6 12.0 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.8% 100.0% 45.7% 54.3% 1.1 1.5 0.2 100.0%
17-1 6.5% 100.0% 41.5% 58.5% 1.2 4.9 1.5 0.0 100.0%
16-2 13.4% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.4 8.2 4.8 0.4 100.0%
15-3 17.5% 100.0% 30.8% 69.2% 1.7 7.4 8.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 19.1% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 2.0 4.7 9.2 4.7 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 16.6% 100.0% 24.3% 75.7% 2.5 2.0 6.6 6.5 1.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 12.3% 100.0% 19.5% 80.5% 3.0 0.6 2.8 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 7.2% 100.0% 14.3% 85.7% 3.6 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 3.6% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 4.2 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
9-9 1.5% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 5.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.5% 100.0% 4.6% 95.4% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.1% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 26.6% 73.4% 2.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 88.8 11.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 85.1 14.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3