Texas A&M - Commerce
Southland
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.9#319
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#291
Pace64.8#276
Improvement-1.2#316

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#314
First Shot-1.3#229
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#357
Layup/Dunks-0.7#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#34
Freethrows-2.6#341
Improvement-0.4#256

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#296
First Shot-5.4#331
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#68
Layups/Dunks-3.3#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#268
Freethrows-2.5#333
Improvement-0.9#303
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 4.6% 6.3% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 82.8% 90.2% 66.3%
Conference Champion 5.0% 6.5% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: McNeese St. (Home) - 68.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 32 - 73 - 8
Quad 410 - 1013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 167   @ SMU L 60-77 14%     0 - 1 -14.2 -9.9 -4.2
  Nov 11, 2022 268   @ Northern Colorado L 77-80 28%     0 - 2 -5.8 -0.2 -5.6
  Nov 14, 2022 168   @ Air Force W 73-69 OT 14%     1 - 2 +6.8 -3.4 +9.9
  Nov 18, 2022 188   UNC Asheville L 64-72 23%     1 - 3 -9.1 -10.1 +1.1
  Nov 19, 2022 231   @ Georgia St. L 53-57 22%     1 - 4 -4.9 -6.6 +0.9
  Nov 20, 2022 193   Eastern Kentucky W 75-61 23%     2 - 4 +12.8 +1.4 +11.5
  Nov 30, 2022 134   @ Hawaii W 53-51 11%     3 - 4 +6.6 -13.2 +19.9
  Dec 04, 2022 318   @ Denver L 75-84 39%     3 - 5 -14.9 -2.9 -12.0
  Dec 06, 2022 139   @ Wyoming L 76-91 11%     3 - 6 -10.6 +0.8 -10.9
  Dec 10, 2022 218   @ Abilene Christian L 64-83 19%     3 - 7 -18.6 -4.7 -15.3
  Dec 19, 2022 204   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 68-85 18%     3 - 8 -16.0 -6.5 -8.9
  Dec 20, 2022 359   IUPUI L 52-62 75%     3 - 9 -25.8 -24.0 -2.8
  Dec 27, 2022 10   @ Texas L 72-97 1%     3 - 10 -6.5 +9.1 -16.2
  Dec 31, 2022 344   Incarnate Word W 82-74 OT 71%     4 - 10 1 - 0 -6.6 -1.6 -5.4
  Jan 05, 2023 250   Nicholls St. L 63-66 44%     4 - 11 1 - 1 -10.5 -7.0 -3.7
  Jan 07, 2023 339   @ McNeese St. W 82-80 OT 48%     5 - 11 2 - 1 -6.3 +2.3 -8.6
  Jan 12, 2023 350   @ Houston Christian L 59-68 54%     5 - 12 2 - 2 -18.8 -19.4 +0.4
  Jan 14, 2023 357   Lamar W 81-66 81%     6 - 12 3 - 2 -3.2 +5.6 -7.5
  Jan 19, 2023 348   @ New Orleans W 63-58 52%     7 - 12 4 - 2 -4.5 -12.4 +8.1
  Jan 21, 2023 273   @ SE Louisiana L 73-79 29%     7 - 13 4 - 3 -9.0 -2.6 -6.6
  Jan 26, 2023 357   @ Lamar W 62-57 65%     8 - 13 5 - 3 -7.8 -2.5 -4.1
  Jan 28, 2023 350   Houston Christian W 77-76 73%     9 - 13 6 - 3 -14.3 -0.9 -13.4
  Feb 04, 2023 339   McNeese St. W 72-67 69%    
  Feb 09, 2023 225   Northwestern St. L 67-70 39%    
  Feb 11, 2023 225   @ Northwestern St. L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 16, 2023 348   New Orleans W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 18, 2023 273   SE Louisiana L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 20, 2023 250   @ Nicholls St. L 66-73 25%    
  Feb 23, 2023 245   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 25, 2023 344   @ Incarnate Word W 67-66 50%    
  Mar 01, 2023 245   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 71-73 44%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.6 2.5 0.7 0.1 5.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.2 1.2 0.0 8.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.6 7.9 3.4 0.1 13.0 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 10.7 8.2 0.4 21.3 4th
5th 0.3 5.3 16.7 13.1 1.7 0.0 37.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 6.0 3.3 0.3 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 1.2 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.5 4.1 12.6 22.1 25.7 19.7 10.6 3.8 0.7 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-4 96.8% 0.7    0.5 0.2
13-5 66.6% 2.5    0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0
12-6 15.1% 1.6    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.0% 5.0 1.5 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.1% 0.1
14-4 0.7% 0.7
13-5 3.8% 3.8
12-6 10.6% 10.6
11-7 19.7% 19.7
10-8 25.7% 25.7
9-9 22.1% 22.1
8-10 12.6% 12.6
7-11 4.1% 4.1
6-12 0.5% 0.5
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 0.5%