Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 192
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 198
Pace 63.2 325
Improvement -1.0 225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 172 C C- C C- D
Defense C- 227 C- C+ C- C+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 211 C+ 59% 136 -0.1 183
2 Pt. Jumpers 48% 70 A- 46% 20 +5.6 8
Three Pointers 33% 328 D- 29% 337 -6.1 345
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -1.1 319 C +0.5 154
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 195
Second Chance C 29.7% 201 D+ 0.97 265 C- 0.29 232
Turnovers C 16.8% 175
Freethrows D+ 0.28 254 B- 75% 111 C- 0.21 213
Total Offense C -0.4 172

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 55% 73 D 13.2% 307
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 328 C+ 4.7% 160
Three Pointers A- 93% 14 B+ 0.1% 17
Total D+ 51% 274 D+ 6.4% 268

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 233 C- 59% 204 -0.6 151
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 111 C- 39% 233 +1.0 268
Three Pointers 41% 185 C- 35% 246 +0.8 228
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 109 C- +1.5 240
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 219
Second Chance C- 31.9% 240 B- 0.95 67 C+ 0.30 157
Turnovers C- 16.4% 206
Freethrows C+ 0.29 126 C+ 72% 139 C+ 0.20 114
Total Defense C- -1.6 227

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 69 D+ 8.6% 265
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 206 D+ 3.3% 275
Three Pointers C+ 81% 106 C+ 1.2% 110
Total B- 52% 105 D+ 4.4% 276

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 321 17.6 244
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 357 0.13 45
Improvement +3.4 #39 -4.4 #345

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 221 193 163
Conference Record 12 - 8 13 - 7 14 - 6
Conference Finish 5 3 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 18% 12%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round16% 18% 12%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 68.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 419 - 621 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 354 Bryant W 82 - 66 92% +10  99% 1 - 0 C -1 C+ +2 F+ A+ B+ C- -3 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 268 @Brown W 62 - 46 54% +12  92% 2 - 0 B+ +13 D- -7 F C- D- A+ +21 A+ A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 12 143 @St. Bonaventure L 66 - 75 28% -3  29% 2 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -4 F A+ F C- -2 C+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 17 237 Colgate L 69 - 72 69% -0  40% 2 - 2 D -10 D -5 D B- C- D -6 D C C-
 Fri, Nov 21 316 Albany W 73 - 63 84% +8  98% 3 - 2 C- -3 C+ +2 C C F+ C- -3 F A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 326 @Holy Cross W 73 - 69 71% +1  56% 4 - 2 C- -4 C- -1 B+ F C C- -2 F A B-
 Fri, Nov 28 270 Longwood W 70 - 63 66% +3  65% 5 - 2 C +1 D -4 B D- C- B+ +5 B D- A+
 Sat, Nov 29 251 @American W 59 - 55 50% +1  66% 6 - 2 C+ +2 F -16 F F F A+ +19 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 346 Maine W 64 - 60 84% +8  98% 7 - 2 D -9 D+ -3 C F B- D -5 F+ D- D
 Fri, Dec 5 337 Niagara W 83 - 54 88% +22  96% 8 - 2 1 - 0 B+ +14 B +7 B+ C B- A +10 A+ B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 343 Canisius W 74 - 52 89% +14  87% 9 - 2 2 - 0 B- +7 C +0 C- F A+ A- +8 A C+ B
 Wed, Dec 17 229 @Vermont L 69 - 83 45% -12  3% 9 - 3 F+ -15 D- -7 F D- C D- -8 D- D- F
 Mon, Dec 22 37 @Indiana L 60 - 81 5% -18  0% 9 - 4 C- -4 D- -8 F C- B+ B- +3 B- A+ A
 Fri, Jan 2 249 @Iona L 72 - 75 50% -4  10% 9 - 5 2 - 1 D+ -5 D -5 D- D- A- C +0 F A+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 356 @Rider W 74 - 65 82% +7  80% 10 - 5 3 - 1 C- -3 B- +5 D- A+ F D- -7 F+ B+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 162 Merrimack L 59 - 63 55% -9  3% 10 - 6 3 - 2 D+ -7 C +1 C- C+ C+ F+ -9 D- C- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 285 @Mount St. Mary's W 67 - 50 58% +5  95% 11 - 6 4 - 2 B+ +13 C +1 C D C+ A+ +14 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 290 Sacred Heart L 80 - 86 79% -4  2% 11 - 7 4 - 3 F+ -16 C -0 F+ C A+ F -16 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 321 @Manhattan W 74 - 59 69% +12  98% 12 - 7 5 - 3 B- +8 C +1 A+ F F A +9 B+ B+ D-
 Mon, Jan 19 266 Fairfield W 85 - 77 74% +8  88% 13 - 7 6 - 3 C -1 A- +11 A+ D F F -11 D F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 184 Marist W 69 - 50 59% +4  74% 14 - 7 7 - 3 A- +15 B +7 D+ A+ A+ A +11 B A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 337 @Niagara W 82 - 79 74% +3  72% 15 - 7 8 - 3 D+ -6 A +12 A+ C- C- F -17 F F D-
 Sun, Feb 1 343 @Canisius W 78 - 63 76% +8  74% 16 - 7 9 - 3 B- +6 A +14 A B+ C D -6 F+ D+ A-
 Thu, Feb 5 249 Iona W 79 - 72 71% -3  25% 17 - 7 10 - 3 C -1 B +5 B B+ D D -6 F A+ C+
 Sat, Feb 7 235 @St. Peter's L 65 - 70 46% -3  11% 17 - 8 10 - 4 D+ -6 D- -7 D- F A C+ +1 F D- B
 Fri, Feb 13 193 Quinnipiac L 62 - 74 62% -6  3% 17 - 9 10 - 5 F+ -17 F -10 F C- B D- -8 D+ C F
 Sun, Feb 15 184 @Marist W 67 - 63 36% +8  88% 18 - 9 11 - 5 B- +6 C+ +2 A F C- B +4 A B F
 Fri, Feb 20 162 @Merrimack L 72 - 79 OT 32% +1  53% 18 - 10 11 - 6 C- -4 B +7 B+ C- C F -12 D F+ D-
 Sun, Feb 22 235 St. Peter's W 70 - 65 68%
 Fri, Feb 27 266 @Fairfield W 73 - 72 53%
 Sun, Mar 1 356 Rider W 77 - 61 93%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 -2 C +0 B- C D C- -2 D- B- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ A- D- C 38% 48% 33% D C C D+ C- C D+ B- C- C- C- C- C- C- 37% 22% 41% C+ C- C- B- C+ C- C+ C+ C+
1.08 59% 46% 29% 0 -1 1.01 30% 1.0 .29 17% .28 75% .21 1.11 59% 39% 35% +1 0 1.04 32% 0.9 .30 16% .29 72% .20
Nov
3		 Bryant C+ B- F F F 58% 20% 22% C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B- C+ B C- B A+ F F 45% 14% 41% D+ F F B F A+ C A B-
1.23 62% 10% 27% -5 +1 0.94 47% 1.3 .61 11% .34 75% .25 0.99 50% 17% 50% +3 +1 1.11 44% 0.9 .38 30% .26 67% .17
Nov
7		 Brown D- B D- F F+ 40% 36% 23% F+ F A- F C- D- A F+ B A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 18% 45% C+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ B+ F B-
0.93 63% 35% 9% -8 -2 0.83 38% 0.7 .28 21% .42 68% .29 0.69 47% 22% 17% -18 0 0.67 29% 0.4 .12 24% .20 80% .16
Nov
12		 St. Bonaventure D+ F A+ F F 34% 39% 27% F F A+ B+ A+ F A+ C- A+ C- A F D C+ 51% 32% 17% C C+ F F F B- C- A+ C+
1.03 27% 53% 25% -9 -3 0.80 45% 1.2 .55 22% .48 75% .36 1.17 46% 60% 38% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.3 .57 19% .29 67% .19
Nov
17		 Colgate D D+ A+ F D+ 36% 32% 32% F+ D B+ C B- C- C+ A+ B+ D D+ F B+ D+ 55% 23% 21% F D B+ F C C- D- D- D-
1.07 56% 50% 25% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 16% .33 83% .28 1.12 62% 55% 30% +5 +1 1.13 22% 1.2 .26 16% .31 76% .24
Nov
21		 Albany C+ C+ B C- C 54% 26% 20% C C B- D C F+ A A+ A+ C- D D- F F 46% 32% 22% B+ F A+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ D-
1.21 60% 42% 33% +2 0 1.07 38% 1.1 .42 18% .40 90% .36 1.04 63% 46% 56% +12 -1 1.24 20% 0.6 .12 18% .36 56% .20
Nov
24		 Holy Cross C- A- A+ F B+ 55% 25% 20% C B+ F F+ F C F B+ F C- F F B- F 38% 24% 38% D F A A+ A B- A B+ A
1.12 71% 62% 20% +9 +1 1.22 16% 1.0 .16 14% .16 78% .12 1.06 74% 58% 32% +9 0 1.20 13% 0.7 .08 18% .19 70% .13
Nov
28		 Longwood D A+ A+ D+ B+ 33% 20% 48% D B F B- D- C- B+ F C- B+ D A- A B 30% 30% 40% A- B D D- D- A+ C- F D
1.04 80% 56% 32% +9 0 1.20 17% 1.0 .17 19% .40 59% .24 0.93 64% 29% 26% -6 -2 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 28% .33 81% .27
Nov
29		 American F F A+ F F+ 37% 39% 24% F F B- F F F A+ F A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 39% 32% 29% A+ A+ C+ C+ C+ A+ F C F
0.85 43% 53% 22% -4 -3 0.89 35% 0.5 .18 29% .70 60% .42 0.79 56% 23% 17% -13 -1 0.73 24% 0.9 .21 27% .41 76% .31
Nov
30		 Maine D+ A B+ F B- 37% 39% 24% F C D F F B- A+ D A+ D C B F F 33% 29% 38% A- F+ D- D D- D C+ A+ A
1.06 73% 44% 20% +3 -3 1.02 33% 0.7 .22 17% .48 67% .32 1.00 57% 33% 44% +4 -1 1.07 23% 1.1 .27 18% .30 47% .14
Dec
5		 Niagara B B- A A+ A- 37% 23% 40% C- B+ C- C+ C B- D- F+ F+ A A F A+ A+ 50% 11% 39% D- A+ B+ C B- F B A+ A
1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18 0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10
Dec
7		 Canisius C A+ F C- C 27% 15% 58% C- C- D F F A+ C F D A- A+ C A+ A+ 42% 18% 40% F+ A D B+ C+ B F D F
1.15 79% 25% 33% +3 0 1.08 27% 0.7 .19 9% .31 61% .19 0.81 37% 38% 22% -16 +1 0.71 30% 0.8 .23 22% .38 74% .28
Dec
17		 Vermont D- F B- D+ F+ 31% 39% 31% F F C F D- C F A+ F+ D- F F B+ D- 40% 15% 45% D+ D- B F D- F D F+ F+
0.99 44% 39% 33% -4 -3 0.88 27% 0.7 .20 13% .21 85% .18 1.19 76% 50% 29% +6 +1 1.15 20% 1.5 .30 11% .32 80% .26
Dec
22		 Indiana D- F C- F F 37% 29% 35% C F D+ C C- B+ A+ F+ A+ B- C A+ D- B- 36% 13% 51% B B- D+ A+ A+ A F F F
0.87 39% 36% 18% -16 -1 0.67 24% 1.1 .26 13% .47 68% .32 1.18 63% 33% 39% +5 +1 1.13 32% 0.6 .18 19% .54 87% .47
Jan
2		 Iona D F B- D+ F+ 47% 20% 32% C+ D- F C+ D- A- F A+ C- C F D- F F 32% 17% 51% C+ F B A+ A+ A C+ A B
1.00 46% 42% 32% -6 +1 0.92 23% 1.0 .23 13% .18 100% .18 1.05 76% 44% 41% +12 0 1.26 21% 0.2 .04 22% .23 62% .14
Jan
4		 Rider B- F A+ A+ F 66% 12% 22% B+ D- A+ C A+ F A+ B A+ D- D- F A+ F+ 36% 28% 36% D+ F+ C A+ B+ F C+ F D+
1.24 44% 60% 44% -3 +3 1.02 55% 1.0 .55 18% .45 73% .33 1.09 61% 64% 17% -1 -1 0.98 31% 0.6 .20 12% .25 85% .21
Jan
9		 Merrimack C B+ B- F C+ 30% 33% 37% F C- A+ F C+ C+ F A- F F+ A A+ F D 48% 9% 43% D- D- F A C- D- A- C+ A-
1.09 62% 43% 25% -2 -2 0.93 55% 0.8 .42 18% .20 78% .16 1.16 43% 25% 47% 0 +2 1.07 32% 0.8 .26 13% .28 77% .21
Jan
11		 Mount St. Mary's C A- B+ F C+ 33% 24% 42% D+ C C+ F D C+ B D C+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 31% 14% 55% B A+ F A- C- B- F D+ F
1.09 67% 45% 26% 0 -1 1.00 31% 0.7 .23 13% .37 70% .26 0.81 46% 17% 22% -17 0 0.69 37% 0.9 .32 24% .43 70% .30
Jan
14		 Sacred Heart C B+ C F F+ 33% 22% 45% D- F+ C- B- C A+ F A+ D- F A+ F+ C B+ 27% 24% 49% B+ B+ F+ F F F A- F C+
1.19 70% 38% 26% -1 0 0.98 30% 1.2 .35 4% .16 90% .14 1.27 31% 43% 34% -6 -1 0.88 32% 1.6 .51 7% .21 100% .21
Jan
17		 Manhattan C C- B A+ A+ 35% 22% 43% D+ A+ D F F F F F F A A F A+ B+ 31% 19% 50% C B+ B- A B+ D- A- A+ A+
1.18 59% 45% 57% +17 0 1.35 32% 0.8 .25 19% .06 33% .02 0.94 44% 60% 23% -8 0 0.85 24% 0.9 .22 13% .22 67% .15
Jan
19		 Fairfield A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 35% 35% 30% F A+ D- D+ D F A- A+ A+ F F B- A F+ 28% 28% 44% A- D B+ F F D+ C+ F D+
1.32 94% 56% 50% +26 -2 1.50 25% 1.0 .25 20% .37 84% .31 1.19 86% 36% 27% +3 -2 1.04 28% 1.8 .48 14% .23 85% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
22		 Marist B F+ C- A+ C+ 26% 53% 21% F D+ C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ B- A A C B- B 31% 29% 39% B- B A+ A+ A+ F A+ C- A+
1.14 50% 36% 40% -1 -5 0.89 28% 2.0 .55 13% .27 100% .27 0.83 44% 40% 30% -6 -2 0.86 9% 0.7 .06 13% .10 80% .08
Jan
30		 Niagara A A+ A+ C- A+ 26% 38% 36% F A+ F A+ C- C- A+ A+ A+ F C F F F 33% 16% 51% B F D F F D- C- A+ B
1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38 1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13
Feb
1		 Canisius A A+ A B A+ 38% 24% 38% D+ A B+ B- B+ C A+ D A D A+ A F F 9% 33% 58% A+ F+ F A+ D+ A- B+ C B+
1.31 81% 50% 38% +14 0 1.29 38% 1.1 .42 15% .43 68% .30 1.06 25% 27% 46% +4 -4 1.02 47% 0.6 .28 23% .22 70% .15
Feb
5		 Iona B A A+ F B+ 43% 25% 31% D+ B B B B+ D D- A+ C D F A+ F F 27% 19% 54% B F D- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.20 73% 62% 19% +5 0 1.12 39% 1.1 .43 18% .20 91% .18 1.09 71% 20% 50% +13 -1 1.27 29% 0.4 .12 18% .07 50% .04
Feb
7		 St. Peter's D- C+ A F D- 44% 22% 34% C- D- F D+ F A D C+ D+ C+ F D A- F 28% 35% 38% A+ F D D D- B F A+ F
0.96 59% 45% 18% -6 0 0.90 19% 1.0 .19 15% .36 76% .28 1.03 82% 43% 27% +4 -3 1.05 38% 1.1 .41 21% .67 61% .41
Feb
13		 Quinnipiac F F C- F F 47% 24% 29% C F D B C- B C A+ B+ D- A+ D F D+ 30% 20% 50% C D+ C- C+ C F F+ A+ C
0.93 38% 33% 27% -14 0 0.75 28% 1.1 .31 15% .28 88% .25 1.11 40% 40% 40% -1 -1 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 10% .35 57% .20
Feb
15		 Marist C+ A- A+ F A+ 42% 36% 22% D A F F F C- D+ D- D B B- A A+ A+ 34% 28% 38% C+ A D A+ B F F A- F
1.03 68% 63% 20% +8 -2 1.16 19% 0.8 .15 20% .33 65% .21 0.97 53% 29% 21% -12 -1 0.76 30% 0.8 .23 11% .38 73% .27
Feb
20		 Merrimack B C- A+ C- A- 38% 23% 40% C- B+ D+ C C- C A+ A A+ F A+ B F D- 40% 13% 48% C D F C F+ D- F F F
1.14 53% 67% 31% +3 0 1.08 38% 1.0 .38 19% .47 79% .37 1.25 37% 33% 48% +1 +1 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 13% .47 100% .47



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 15.3 34.6 49.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 22.4 23.8 3rd
4th 0.1 8.4 8.8 17.2 4th
5th 0.8 7.8 8.7 5th
6th 0.4 0.4 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 1.3 17.7 46.5 34.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 34.6% 21.3% 21.3% 14.4 0.4 3.6 3.2 0.2 27.2
13-7 46.5% 14.7% 14.7% 15.2 0.0 0.8 4.0 2.0 39.7
12-8 17.7% 11.2% 11.2% 15.5 0.0 0.9 1.1 15.7
11-9 1.3% 7.1% 7.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.2
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 14.9 83.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 14.4 5.6 49.3 42.8 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.0%
Lose Out 0.3%