Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.7 #206
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #185
Pace 70.4 #152
Improvement -0.9 #237

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #204 D+ B+ C D+ D-
Defense #210 D+ C- B- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.19 #145 +0.7 #150
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #24 0.81 #109 +4.7 #14
Three Pointers 31% #353 0.82 #342 -8.3 #356
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #254 -2.8 #254
Freethrows 20.0 #65 75% #100 15.1 #47
Second Chance 32.8% #117 1.00 #235 0.33 #158
Turnovers 18.0% #259
Total Offense -1.5 #204

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #252 1.16 #168 +1.3 #134
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #116 0.77 #213 -1.0 #250
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.16 #335 -3.2 #304
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.8 #269
Freethrows 18.5 #242 71% #112 13.1 #147
Second Chance 28.6% #107 1.00 #124 0.28 #96
Turnovers 16.8% #176
Total Defense -1.2 #210

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.5% #320 -0.8% #105
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.1% #227 6.4% #291
Possession Length 17.9 #237 16.8 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #195 0.20 #258
Improvement -2.7 #331 +1.7 #78

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.4% 7.5% 3.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.5 14.7
.500 or above 60.2% 67.5% 40.9%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 86.9% 64.4%
Conference Champion 6.7% 8.4% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round6.4% 7.5% 3.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Home) - 72.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 412 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 182 @Buffalo L 79-85 34%     2.8   0 - 1 -4.4 +9.0 -13.8
  Sun, Nov 9 73 @South Carolina L 79-83 OT 11%     -1.7   0 - 2 +6.9 +5.8 +1.4
  Thu, Nov 13 244 @Grambling St. L 70-75 47%     -6.2   0 - 3 -6.8 -2.0 -4.8
  Sat, Nov 22 346 North Florida W 92-83 81%     -0.3   1 - 3 -3.1 +7.3 -10.6
  Sun, Nov 23 236 Tennessee Martin W 70-60 57%     17.3   2 - 3 +5.5 +14.6 -6.6
  Wed, Dec 3 243 @Radford W 82-75 46%     5.9   3 - 3 +5.2 +1.6 +3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 36 @Miami (FL) L 64-88 5%     -4.9   3 - 4 -7.7 -3.7 -2.8
  Mon, Dec 8 244 Grambling St. W 68-60 69%     -1.1   4 - 4 +0.2 -6.1 +6.4
  Sat, Dec 13 69 Mississippi L 67-71 15%     -3.1   4 - 5 +4.2 +2.2 +1.8
  Thu, Dec 18 315 Louisiana W 62-54 81%     2.1   5 - 5 1 - 0 -3.8 -11.4 +7.8
  Sat, Dec 20 135 Arkansas St. L 86-93 46%     -3.5   5 - 6 1 - 1 -8.6 +9.5 -18.0
  Mon, Dec 29 43 @LSU L 62-90 6%     -13.7   5 - 7 -13.0 -4.9 -7.9
  Thu, Jan 1 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 87-73 78%     10.9   6 - 7 2 - 1 +3.1 +0.4 +1.5
  Sat, Jan 3 315 @Louisiana W 74-67 62%     1.9   7 - 7 3 - 1 +1.2 +3.9 -2.5
  Thu, Jan 8 270 Texas St. W 75-69 73%    
  Sat, Jan 10 356 Louisiana Monroe W 85-71 91%    
  Wed, Jan 14 128 @Troy L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Jan 17 270 @Texas St. W 73-72 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 301 @Georgia St. W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 24 269 @Coastal Carolina W 73-72 51%    
  Thu, Jan 29 222 Appalachian St. W 70-66 63%    
  Sat, Jan 31 193 James Madison W 76-73 59%    
  Wed, Feb 4 163 @Marshall L 75-80 31%    
  Sat, Feb 7 139 Kent St. L 81-82 46%    
  Thu, Feb 12 194 South Alabama W 71-68 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 128 Troy L 72-74 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 253 Old Dominion W 79-73 70%    
  Tue, Feb 24 135 @Arkansas St. L 77-84 26%    
  Fri, Feb 27 194 @South Alabama L 68-71 37%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 1.6 0.5 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.4 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 6.5 2.5 0.3 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.0 2.0 6.8 4.0 0.5 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.6 6.0 5.8 0.8 0.0 13.2 5th
6th 0.2 3.6 6.6 1.5 0.0 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 6.2 2.6 0.1 10.3 7th
8th 0.3 4.0 3.7 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.5 0.8 6.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.2 0.1 4.2 10th
11th 0.1 1.1 1.1 0.2 2.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 5.7 10.3 15.0 17.6 17.5 14.5 9.1 4.8 1.9 0.5 0.1 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 97.9% 0.5    0.4 0.0
15-3 84.9% 1.6    1.1 0.5 0.0
14-4 55.5% 2.7    1.1 1.2 0.3 0.0
13-5 18.3% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 2.9 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 22.1% 22.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.9% 27.8% 27.8% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.3
14-4 4.8% 24.0% 24.0% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.6
13-5 9.1% 16.9% 16.9% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 7.5
12-6 14.5% 10.8% 10.8% 14.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 12.9
11-7 17.5% 5.2% 5.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 16.6
10-8 17.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 17.2
9-9 15.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 14.7
8-10 10.3% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 10.3
7-11 5.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 2.3% 2.3
5-13 0.7% 0.7
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 6.4% 6.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.6 2.4 2.7 0.6 93.6 0.0%