Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.7#250
Expected Predictive Rating-2.9#213
Pace74.9#47
Improvement+1.7#77

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#267
First Shot-2.3#240
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#241
Layup/Dunks-0.6#204
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#245
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#212
First Shot+0.5#158
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#298
Layups/Dunks-2.5#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#116
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#122
Freethrows+0.4#160
Improvement+1.5#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.8% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.5 14.9
.500 or above 24.4% 38.5% 17.5%
.500 or above in Conference 37.8% 46.5% 33.5%
Conference Champion 1.5% 2.3% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 5.9% 10.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.9% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulane (Away) - 33.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 83 - 12
Quad 410 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 267   Bowling Green W 77-68 66%     1 - 0 +0.0 -4.7 +4.2
  Nov 07, 2024 124   @ UAB L 84-98 17%     1 - 1 -8.8 +0.4 -7.4
  Nov 20, 2024 120   @ South Dakota St. L 76-101 17%     1 - 2 -19.5 -7.4 -7.7
  Nov 24, 2024 122   @ Montana St. L 59-79 17%     1 - 3 -14.7 -13.9 +0.0
  Nov 25, 2024 178   Abilene Christian L 74-82 36%     1 - 4 -9.0 +4.4 -13.8
  Nov 30, 2024 172   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 66-65 47%     2 - 4 -2.8 -4.6 +1.9
  Dec 05, 2024 285   Alabama St. W 81-64 68%     3 - 4 +7.5 -0.5 +7.1
  Dec 10, 2024 220   @ Tulane L 72-76 33%    
  Dec 14, 2024 26   Mississippi L 67-85 4%    
  Dec 17, 2024 280   Lamar W 77-72 67%    
  Dec 21, 2024 195   Marshall L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 02, 2025 114   @ James Madison L 70-81 15%    
  Jan 04, 2025 317   @ Old Dominion W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 09, 2025 332   Louisiana Monroe W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 11, 2025 138   Texas St. L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 15, 2025 206   @ South Alabama L 67-73 31%    
  Jan 18, 2025 138   @ Texas St. L 67-76 21%    
  Jan 23, 2025 125   @ Troy L 70-80 19%    
  Jan 25, 2025 262   @ Louisiana L 77-79 43%    
  Jan 29, 2025 130   Arkansas St. L 73-76 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 235   Georgia Southern W 80-78 58%    
  Feb 05, 2025 163   @ Appalachian St. L 65-72 26%    
  Feb 12, 2025 130   @ Arkansas St. L 70-79 21%    
  Feb 15, 2025 332   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 20, 2025 272   Coastal Carolina W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 262   Louisiana W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 26, 2025 206   South Alabama W 71-70 52%    
  Feb 28, 2025 125   Troy L 73-77 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.3 1.9 0.7 0.1 4.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 2.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.3 3.7 0.6 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.2 2.2 4.7 1.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.2 3.0 0.2 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.5 4.4 0.6 0.0 10.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.4 1.4 0.0 11.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.0 2.2 0.2 10.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 7.2 13th
14th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.7 14th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.4 6.9 9.4 12.5 14.1 13.8 12.5 9.7 7.1 4.4 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 95.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 73.7% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.6% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 18.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 36.1% 36.1% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 18.3% 18.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-4 1.1% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
13-5 2.4% 11.7% 11.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-6 4.4% 7.2% 7.2% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.1
11-7 7.1% 5.2% 5.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.7
10-8 9.7% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.4
9-9 12.5% 1.4% 1.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.3
8-10 13.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.7
7-11 14.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.0
6-12 12.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-13 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 9.4
4-14 6.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.9
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.5 98.0 0.0%