Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.5 245
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 223
Pace 70.4 127
Improvement -1.6 243

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 284 D- C D+ A- D-
Defense C 176 D+ B- C C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 174 C 59% 155 +0.3 168
2 Pt. Jumpers 62% 10 C- 36% 235 +3.8 34
Three Pointers 29% 356 F 26% 365 -9.5 364
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 333 D -3.9 310
1st FG Attempt D- 0.91 332
Second Chance C 30.5% 180 C 1.03 169 C 0.31 165
Turnovers D+ 18.5% 289
Freethrows B+ 0.36 31 B- 75% 79 A- 0.27 22
Total Offense D+ -4.3 284

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 180 D+ 13.0% 292
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 15% 323 D+ 6.8% 294
Three Pointers D+ 80% 270 D 1.5% 313
Total F+ 45% 349 F+ 7.7% 344

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 165 C+ 57% 151 -0.1 176
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 234 C- 40% 254 -0.3 164
Three Pointers 42% 135 D- 38% 338 +3.3 326
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.3 221 D+ +2.5 276
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 271
Second Chance B- 27.9% 83 C+ 1.00 128 B- 0.28 82
Turnovers C 17.2% 158
Freethrows D 0.35 305 B+ 69% 27 C- 0.24 253
Total Defense C -0.2 176

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 192 C+ 12.0% 128
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 28 C 5.1% 155
Three Pointers B+ 78% 38 B- 1.4% 75
Total C+ 54% 142 C+ 6.3% 126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.7 225 16.6 64
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 112 0.20 293
Improvement -4.3 #345 +2.8 #52

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.0
.500 or above 11% 16% 2%
.500 or above in Conference 30% 46% 6%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Old Dominion (Home) - 60.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 410 - 514 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 213 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 33% +3  66% 0 - 1 D+ -6 B +6 B B F+ F -12 D- D F+
 Sun, Nov 9 94 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 11% -2  42% 0 - 2 C+ +5 C+ +3 C C+ A- C+ +2 D- A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 293 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 50% -6  9% 0 - 3 D -9 D+ -3 F A+ A- D -6 F B B+
 Sat, Nov 22 339 North Florida W 92 - 83 76% -0  44% 1 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 C+ B D+ D- -7 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 217 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 45% +14  97% 2 - 3 B- +7 A +14 B- A+ A D+ -5 F+ A F
 Wed, Dec 3 234 @Radford W 82 - 75 37% +6  84% 3 - 3 B- +6 C- -1 F D+ C- B+ +6 A- B- D-
 Sat, Dec 6 40 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  39% 3 - 4 D+ -8 D- -7 D- A+ F C +0 C B- B+
 Mon, Dec 8 293 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 72% -1  29% 4 - 4 C- -2 D- -8 C- D+ F B+ +5 D+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 73 Mississippi L 67 - 71 12% -3  15% 4 - 5 C+ +4 C- -1 B- C D- B +5 B- B+ C-
 Thu, Dec 18 303 Louisiana W 62 - 54 74% +2  64% 5 - 5 1 - 0 C- -3 F -15 F F+ A+ A+ +12 A A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 140 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 40% -3  26% 5 - 6 1 - 1 D -9 B +7 B B C F -16 B F F
 Mon, Dec 29 54 @LSU L 62 - 90 6% -14  3% 5 - 7 F+ -15 F+ -9 F F+ B- D -5 C C F
 Thu, Jan 1 353 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 74% +11  100% 6 - 7 2 - 1 C+ +3 D+ -2 B+ F+ F B +4 C+ C D+
 Sat, Jan 3 303 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 53% +2  60% 7 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +2 C -0 B- D F B- +2 C- F A-
 Thu, Jan 8 225 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 58% -0  41% 8 - 7 4 - 1 C+ +3 D -5 D C- D+ A- +7 B+ C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 353 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 88% -0  49% 9 - 7 5 - 1 D+ -7 F -13 F D B B+ +6 C+ B B+
 Wed, Jan 14 146 @Troy L 65 - 91 22% -12  10% 9 - 8 5 - 2 F -22 F+ -9 F B- F F -13 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 225 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 35% -3  24% 9 - 9 5 - 3 D+ -8 F+ -9 F F+ D+ C+ +2 D A- A+
 Thu, Jan 22 283 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 48% -2  33% 9 - 10 5 - 4 D -11 F -15 F F B- B +4 A F B
 Sat, Jan 24 238 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 38% -12  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 F -19 D+ -4 C- D- B F -16 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 174 Appalachian St. L 63 - 70 48% -2  25% 9 - 12 5 - 6 D -11 F+ -10 F+ D+ F C- -2 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 210 James Madison W 73 - 65 55% +5  91% 10 - 12 6 - 6 C+ +2 D+ -3 D C- F+ B+ +5 A D+ C-
 Wed, Feb 4 173 @Marshall L 77 - 81 26% +2  67% 10 - 13 6 - 7 C- -2 B- +4 C B F D -6 F C C-
 Sat, Feb 7 145 Kent St. W 66 - 65 41% +0  56% 11 - 13 C -1 D -6 F C+ D+ B +5 B B F
 Thu, Feb 12 188 South Alabama L 78 - 84 52% -8  0% 11 - 14 6 - 8 D -11 D -5 C+ A- F D -6 F A+ C
 Sat, Feb 14 146 Troy W 69 - 65 41% -0  48% 12 - 14 7 - 8 C+ +2 D+ -4 F A B- B+ +6 D+ B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 21 239 Old Dominion W 75 - 72 61%
 Tue, Feb 24 140 @Arkansas St. L 73 - 82 20%
 Fri, Feb 27 188 @South Alabama L 67 - 73 30%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -4 D+ -4 B- D D- C +0 F B- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C C- F D 39% 62% 29% D- D- C C C D+ B+ B- A- C C+ C- D- D+ 39% 19% 42% C- D+ B- C+ B- C D B+ C-
1.03 59% 36% 26% -4 -1 0.91 30% 1.0 .31 19% .36 75% .27 1.09 57% 40% 38% +2 0 1.08 28% 1.0 .28 17% .35 69% .25
Nov
3		 Buffalo B B- A+ C B- 49% 13% 38% B B D+ A+ B F+ A+ A+ A+ F B+ F F D 36% 7% 58% D- D- F A- D F+ F B+ F
1.20 64% 67% 35% +7 +2 1.20 29% 1.3 .38 21% .39 95% .37 1.29 50% 67% 42% +6 +2 1.18 37% 0.9 .34 12% .62 69% .43
Nov
9		 South Carolina C+ A- C+ F+ B- 27% 41% 32% F C B- C- C+ A- B B+ B+ C+ A+ F F F+ 21% 9% 70% C D- C+ A+ A+ A D+ C- D+
1.05 67% 39% 28% 0 -3 0.95 33% 0.9 .30 12% .32 76% .24 1.11 45% 60% 41% +6 0 1.15 29% 0.5 .14 20% .35 81% .28
Nov
13		 Grambling St. D+ F F+ F F 57% 14% 29% B+ F A A- A+ A- A+ F A- D D F F F 54% 6% 40% F F A C- B B+ B- C- C+
1.00 43% 29% 14% -18 +2 0.69 44% 1.2 .54 16% .49 62% .31 1.08 62% 67% 42% +9 +3 1.25 21% 1.0 .21 24% .30 75% .23
Nov
22		 North Florida B- B- A+ F B- 52% 30% 19% D C+ A- D B D+ A+ F A- D- F F F F 24% 18% 58% A- F A+ F A+ A+ B+ C- B
1.29 64% 63% 20% +7 0 1.15 45% 1.1 .52 14% .42 62% .26 1.16 83% 56% 48% +22 -1 1.44 9% 1.5 .14 25% .19 80% .15
Nov
23		 Tennessee Martin A A D+ B+ B+ 31% 33% 36% F+ B- A- A A+ A C- F F+ D+ B- F D+ F 38% 20% 43% C- F+ A- A A F F A+ D+
1.25 71% 33% 38% +4 -2 1.07 42% 1.2 .48 14% .31 53% .17 1.08 53% 63% 35% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.7 .20 16% .43 55% .23
Dec
3		 Radford C- D D F+ F 33% 35% 33% F F B F D+ C- A+ A+ A+ B+ A- A+ C+ A 39% 9% 52% D- A- B C B- D- F+ D- F
1.09 53% 33% 29% -6 -2 0.87 38% 0.9 .32 19% .52 84% .44 1.00 48% 0% 32% -9 +2 0.87 25% 1.0 .25 15% .42 78% .33
Dec
6		 Miami (FL) D- C+ F+ F D- 41% 30% 28% C- D- A+ A A+ F A+ C+ A C D- B+ D C- 45% 24% 31% B+ C F A+ B- B+ D- D+ D-
0.87 58% 29% 23% -8 -1 0.85 36% 1.3 .45 27% .35 68% .24 1.19 70% 33% 38% +6 0 1.14 47% 0.8 .37 19% .40 71% .28
Dec
8		 Grambling St. D- A+ B F C 45% 26% 30% D C- C D- D+ F F+ A- D B+ B A+ F D+ 49% 22% 29% D+ D+ F A+ A A+ F A+ F
0.99 76% 42% 14% 0 0 1.02 34% 0.9 .31 25% .27 79% .21 0.87 50% 0% 58% -2 +1 1.00 42% 0.4 .16 31% .52 60% .31
Dec
13		 Mississippi C- D- A+ F B 37% 30% 33% C- B- C- B- C D- B+ D B- B D D+ A+ B 35% 30% 35% D B- A+ F B+ C- F B+ F
1.00 47% 64% 27% 0 -1 1.00 27% 1.1 .30 21% .38 65% .25 1.06 69% 43% 25% +1 -2 1.00 14% 1.8 .25 12% .44 69% .31
Dec
18		 Louisiana F F D- D+ F 26% 31% 43% F F F A+ F+ A+ A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ A- 20% 49% 31% A+ A A+ A+ A+ D C F+ C-
0.91 9% 31% 33% -15 -2 0.67 18% 1.3 .23 12% .65 67% .43 0.80 36% 41% 24% -8 -5 0.76 13% 0.4 .05 15% .22 77% .17
Dec
20		 Arkansas St. B A D+ A+ A- 28% 40% 32% F B C A B C A+ A+ A+ F B A+ D+ B+ 43% 16% 41% C- B D- F F F F F F
1.20 71% 35% 44% +7 -3 1.10 28% 1.3 .34 15% .44 93% .41 1.30 52% 13% 35% -6 +1 0.92 43% 1.6 .70 13% .53 82% .43
Dec
29		 LSU F+ C+ F F F 24% 49% 27% F F C+ F F+ B- A+ A- A+ D F F+ C+ D 20% 35% 44% A+ C B+ F C F D B+ C-
0.88 58% 25% 23% -11 -5 0.71 31% 0.5 .15 14% .48 72% .35 1.28 82% 47% 33% +8 -3 1.11 29% 1.4 .41 9% .39 72% .28
Jan
1		 Louisiana Monroe D+ B+ A+ C B 49% 13% 38% B- B+ C- F F+ F C A+ B+ B A- D C+ C+ 39% 21% 39% C- C+ A+ F C D+ D+ A C+
1.13 69% 71% 35% +10 +2 1.26 36% 0.9 .32 22% .25 87% .22 0.95 45% 42% 32% -5 0 0.91 14% 1.7 .24 16% .34 64% .22
Jan
3		 Louisiana C A+ D+ F B- 49% 22% 29% C- B- B- F D F A+ A+ A+ B- D C C- D 21% 44% 35% A C- D+ F F A- F+ D- F
1.09 80% 33% 25% +6 +1 1.15 35% 0.8 .26 25% .59 83% .49 0.99 60% 38% 35% +1 -4 0.96 29% 1.8 .52 21% .30 75% .22
Jan
8		 Texas St. D A- D- D- D+ 41% 36% 23% F D D+ C+ C- D+ B+ B- A- A- A- D+ A A- 38% 21% 41% D B+ B+ D C+ C- F+ A+ C
1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29 0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22
Jan
10		 Louisiana Monroe F C F F F 35% 27% 37% F F F A+ D B A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ D B 42% 6% 52% F C+ F A+ B B+ C+ B- B-
1.03 61% 21% 26% -8 -1 0.84 23% 1.6 .36 13% .41 67% .27 0.88 40% 0% 36% -8 +2 0.90 31% 0.6 .18 21% .30 69% .20
Jan
14		 Troy F+ C+ A- F F 41% 26% 33% C- F B- C+ B- F A- D B F D- A+ F F 52% 7% 41% D- F D A- C+ F B- B- B-
0.92 58% 50% 13% -7 0 0.87 35% 1.1 .38 26% .34 67% .23 1.29 64% 0% 50% +10 +3 1.28 36% 0.8 .30 11% .27 71% .19
Jan
17		 Texas St. F+ D A F F 38% 34% 28% F F F C+ F+ D+ A A+ A+ C+ A- F F D+ 49% 21% 31% F D A B- A- A+ F D F
0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35 1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52
Jan
22		 Georgia St. F B- F+ F F 31% 33% 37% F F F A+ F B- C+ D C B A+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 21% 49% D- A F+ F F B F A- F
0.86 63% 29% 21% -9 -2 0.81 15% 1.3 .21 15% .31 68% .21 0.96 38% 22% 24% -17 -1 0.67 33% 1.7 .56 19% .50 72% .36
Jan
24		 Coastal Carolina D+ A- D F C 33% 45% 22% F+ C- F A+ D- B A F+ B F D F+ F F 33% 24% 42% D F C D+ C- A+ F+ D F+
0.99 65% 35% 27% -1 -4 0.92 14% 1.4 .20 10% .38 65% .25 1.26 60% 45% 63% +21 -1 1.42 25% 1.0 .25 22% .32 76% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
29		 Appalachian St. F+ D+ D+ F D- 39% 35% 27% F F+ B F D+ F A+ C- A+ C- A+ A- F C- 48% 15% 37% D- C- A A+ A+ D F F F
0.95 53% 35% 23% -7 -2 0.84 36% 0.7 .24 18% .48 69% .33 1.05 41% 29% 47% -2 +1 1.00 23% 0.5 .11 14% .50 76% .38
Jan
31		 James Madison D+ B- D- D- C- 37% 39% 24% F D D B C- F+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B- F+ A+ A+ 49% 16% 36% D A B F D+ C- F A+ F
1.09 60% 31% 30% -3 -3 0.90 25% 1.1 .29 16% .61 82% .50 0.97 55% 43% 19% -9 +1 0.87 25% 1.3 .33 16% .47 58% .27
Feb
4		 Marshall B- A+ F A+ B- 12% 35% 53% F C A+ D B F A+ C- A+ D F F D- F 32% 30% 38% B- F B- D- C C- F B+ F
1.16 100% 13% 43% +4 -4 1.02 46% 0.8 .38 21% .57 70% .40 1.22 80% 50% 39% +13 -2 1.26 29% 1.2 .35 17% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Kent St. D F D+ F+ F 38% 32% 30% F+ F A- D C+ D+ A+ A A+ B A+ F A- B+ 34% 16% 50% C B B B- B F B+ A+ A+
1.02 44% 33% 29% -9 -1 0.81 38% 0.9 .33 17% .44 79% .35 1.00 41% 63% 28% -6 0 0.90 30% 1.0 .30 14% .32 44% .14
Feb
12		 South Alabama D C- F A- C 49% 11% 40% B+ C+ D A+ A- F A+ B+ A+ D F D- F F 32% 19% 49% B F A+ A- A+ C F A F
1.04 59% 0% 39% -1 +2 1.04 27% 1.8 .47 28% .52 79% .41 1.12 87% 44% 39% +14 0 1.30 13% 1.0 .13 13% .57 57% .32
Feb
14		 Troy D+ F A F F 57% 25% 18% B- F A C+ A B- C A+ B B+ D- F A C 54% 4% 41% F D+ D A+ B+ A+ C- A+ B+
1.04 38% 54% 0% -16 +1 0.71 42% 1.1 .47 15% .29 81% .23 0.98 64% 50% 26% -1 +3 1.07 37% 0.7 .26 23% .31 56% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.8 0.8 4th
5th 0.0 2.0 2.0 5th
6th 1.0 1.4 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 8.1 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 4.9 14.4 19.3 8th
9th 28.0 2.1 30.1 9th
10th 5.0 13.0 0.0 18.0 10th
11th 10.8 1.3 12.1 11th
12th 6.4 0.0 6.4 12th
13th 0.7 0.7 13th
14th 14th
Total 22.9 47.2 25.6 4.3 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 4.3% 3.5% 3.5% 14.3 0.1 0.1 4.1
9-9 25.6% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 25.3
8-10 47.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 46.9
7-11 22.9% 22.9
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.1 99.3 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%
Lose Out 22.9%