Southern Miss
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.8 #244
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 #234
Pace 70.6 #125
Improvement -3.6 #325

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #279 D C D+ B+ D-
Defense #199 D+ C+ C D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.20 #120 -0.2 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% #14 0.74 #205 +4.3 #22
Three Pointers 30% #352 0.78 #365 -9.0 #361
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #325 -4.9 #325
Freethrows 0.36 #36 75% #89 0.27 #27
Second Chance 29.9% #207 1.03 #166 0.31 #187
Turnovers 18.4% #278
Total Offense -4.0 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #164 1.11 #118 +0.4 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #223 0.78 #217 +0.4 #154
Three Pointers 42% #156 1.17 #349 -3.5 #322
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #269 -2.7 #269
Freethrows 0.35 #306 70% #84 0.25 #285
Second Chance 28.2% #88 1.01 #168 0.29 #105
Turnovers 17.1% #177
Total Defense -0.8 #199

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.3% #343 0.5% #216
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.5% #294 4.7% #269
Possession Length 17.8 #230 16.5 #63
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #169 0.21 #300
Improvement -4.8 #353 +1.2 #121

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.0% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.8 15.3
.500 or above 9.7% 18.8% 3.9%
.500 or above in Conference 36.0% 39.1% 34.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.8% 1.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kent St. (Home) - 38.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 411 - 613 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 196 @Buffalo L 79 - 85 30% +3  0 - 1 -5 +8 B B- F+ -14 D D+ F+
 Sun, Nov 9 87 @South Carolina L 79 - 83 OT 10% -2  0 - 2 +5 +5 C C+ B+ +0 D A+ A
 Thu, Nov 13 276 @Grambling St. L 70 - 75 46% -6  0 - 3 -9 -2 F A+ A- -7 F B B
 Sat, Nov 22 348 North Florida W 92 - 83 76% -0  1 - 3 -3 +5 C+ B- D+ -9 F A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 200 Tennessee Martin W 70 - 60 41% +14  2 - 3 +8 +17 B A+ A- -7 D- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 234 @Radford W 82 - 75 36% +6  3 - 3 +6 +2 F C- C +4 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 40 @Miami (FL) L 64 - 88 4% -5  3 - 4 -8 -5 D- A+ F -2 C B- B+
 Mon, Dec 8 276 Grambling St. W 68 - 60 68% -1  4 - 4 -2 -6 C- D+ F +4 C- A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 60 Mississippi L 67 - 71 10% -3  4 - 5 +5 +2 B- C D +3 C+ B+ C-
 Thu, Dec 18 295 Louisiana W 62 - 54 72% +2  5 - 5 1 - 0 -3 -12 F F+ A+ +10 A A+ D
 Sat, Dec 20 169 Arkansas St. L 86 - 93 45% -3  5 - 6 1 - 1 -11 +9 C+ B- C -19 B- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 48 @LSU L 62 - 90 5% -14  5 - 7 -14 -6 F F+ B- -8 C C+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 355 @Louisiana Monroe W 87 - 73 73% +11  6 - 7 2 - 1 +3 +1 B D F +1 C C- D+
 Sat, Jan 3 295 @Louisiana W 74 - 67 50% +2  7 - 7 3 - 1 +2 +3 B- D F -1 C- F B+
 Thu, Jan 8 256 Texas St. W 80 - 70 OT 63% -0  8 - 7 4 - 1 +2 -2 D C- D+ +3 B- C+ C-
 Sat, Jan 10 355 Louisiana Monroe W 70 - 60 87% -0  9 - 7 5 - 1 -7 -9 F D+ B +3 C+ B- B
 Wed, Jan 14 138 @Troy L 65 - 91 19% -12  9 - 8 5 - 2 -22 -6 F B- F -15 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 256 @Texas St. L 67 - 74 40% -3  9 - 9 5 - 3 -9 -6 F F+ D+ -3 D- B+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 272 @Georgia St. L 62 - 69 44% -2  9 - 10 5 - 4 -10 -13 F F+ C+ +2 A F B
 Sat, Jan 24 240 @Coastal Carolina L 67 - 85 38% -12  9 - 11 5 - 5 -20 -2 C- D- B -18 F C A+
 Thu, Jan 29 172 Appalachian St. L 63 - 70 46% -2  9 - 12 5 - 6 -11 -6 D- D+ D- -5 C- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 220 James Madison W 73 - 65 56% +5  10 - 12 6 - 6 +2 -1 D- C- D- +3 A- C- C-
 Wed, Feb 4 157 @Marshall L 77 - 81 23% +2  10 - 13 6 - 7 -1 +9 C+ B+ D- -11 F C D
 Sat, Feb 7 139 Kent St. L 76 - 79 39%
 Thu, Feb 12 204 South Alabama W 69 - 68 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 138 Troy L 71 - 74 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 259 Old Dominion W 76 - 72 64%
 Tue, Feb 24 169 @Arkansas St. L 75 - 82 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 204 @South Alabama L 66 - 71 32%
Totals 13 - 16 8 - 10 -5 -4 D C D+ -1 D+ C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 0.8 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 0.5 3.1 4th
5th 1.0 4.1 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.0 6.3 2.1 8.4 6th
7th 1.1 10.3 0.3 11.7 7th
8th 0.1 7.6 6.0 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 1.1 15.1 1.6 17.8 9th
10th 0.0 6.5 8.5 0.0 15.0 10th
11th 0.7 9.6 1.7 12.0 11th
12th 2.8 5.2 0.1 8.1 12th
13th 3.3 0.6 3.9 13th
14th 14th
Total 6.8 23.1 34.0 25.1 9.4 1.5 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 1.5% 6.7% 6.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4
10-8 9.4% 4.6% 4.6% 15.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.9
9-9 25.1% 1.0% 1.0% 15.4 0.2 0.1 24.9
8-10 34.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.7 0.0 0.1 34.0
7-11 23.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 23.1
6-12 6.8% 6.8
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 15.1 99.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%
Lose Out 4.5%