St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.5#20
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#60
Pace71.8#101
Improvement-1.2#256

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#26
First Shot+2.4#106
After Offensive Rebound+5.2#5
Layup/Dunks+1.0#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#30
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#255
Freethrows+0.6#149
Improvement-1.1#266

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#21
First Shot+7.0#15
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#188
Layups/Dunks+5.0#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#133
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
Freethrows+1.5#96
Improvement-0.1#182
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
#1 Seed 3.2% 3.7% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 8.0% 9.3% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 22.4% 25.2% 12.6%
Top 6 Seed 39.6% 43.3% 26.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 81.7% 84.6% 71.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.0% 80.3% 65.7%
Average Seed 6.5 6.3 7.3
.500 or above 98.4% 99.1% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 90.7% 91.7% 87.1%
Conference Champion 26.4% 28.0% 20.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.3% 0.6%
First Four4.9% 4.3% 6.8%
First Round79.5% 82.6% 68.3%
Second Round55.0% 58.2% 43.5%
Sweet Sixteen26.7% 29.0% 18.3%
Elite Eight12.6% 13.9% 8.0%
Final Four5.6% 6.2% 3.5%
Championship Game2.4% 2.7% 1.2%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.4%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 28 - 313 - 9
Quad 35 - 018 - 10
Quad 46 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 201   Fordham W 92-60 95%     1 - 0 +27.1 +12.6 +12.7
  Nov 09, 2024 245   Quinnipiac W 96-73 97%     2 - 0 +15.6 +9.3 +3.6
  Nov 13, 2024 300   Wagner W 66-45 98%     3 - 0 +10.7 -1.5 +14.1
  Nov 17, 2024 65   New Mexico W 85-71 79%     4 - 0 +20.1 +15.2 +5.0
  Nov 21, 2024 13   Baylor L 98-99 2OT 47%     4 - 1 +14.4 +8.0 +6.6
  Nov 22, 2024 90   Virginia W 80-55 79%     5 - 1 +30.9 +21.5 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2024 38   Georgia L 63-66 60%     5 - 2 +8.9 -1.3 +10.1
  Nov 30, 2024 241   Harvard W 77-64 97%     6 - 2 +5.7 +2.8 +3.0
  Dec 07, 2024 59   Kansas St. W 77-69 78%    
  Dec 11, 2024 176   Bryant W 90-72 96%    
  Dec 17, 2024 97   @ DePaul W 78-72 71%    
  Dec 20, 2024 79   @ Providence W 71-67 66%    
  Dec 28, 2024 213   Delaware W 89-69 97%    
  Dec 31, 2024 40   @ Creighton L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 54   Butler W 79-71 77%    
  Jan 07, 2025 68   @ Xavier W 78-75 61%    
  Jan 11, 2025 56   Villanova W 75-67 77%    
  Jan 14, 2025 98   Georgetown W 81-69 87%    
  Jan 18, 2025 116   @ Seton Hall W 67-58 78%    
  Jan 22, 2025 68   Xavier W 81-72 80%    
  Jan 28, 2025 98   @ Georgetown W 78-72 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 79   Providence W 74-64 83%    
  Feb 04, 2025 12   Marquette W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 07, 2025 11   @ Connecticut L 72-76 36%    
  Feb 12, 2025 56   @ Villanova W 72-70 57%    
  Feb 16, 2025 40   Creighton W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 19, 2025 97   @ DePaul W 78-72 70%    
  Feb 23, 2025 11   Connecticut W 75-73 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 54   @ Butler W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 01, 2025 116   Seton Hall W 70-55 90%    
  Mar 08, 2025 12   @ Marquette L 73-77 36%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 5.1 7.0 6.1 3.8 1.5 0.3 26.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.5 7.1 6.3 3.1 0.9 0.0 21.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 4.3 6.5 4.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.6 5.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.0 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.2 6.7 9.2 11.8 13.1 14.1 12.9 10.3 7.0 3.8 1.5 0.3 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 98.7% 3.8    3.6 0.2
17-3 87.7% 6.1    5.0 1.1 0.0
16-4 67.9% 7.0    4.5 2.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 39.8% 5.1    2.2 2.3 0.6 0.0
14-6 14.6% 2.1    0.5 0.9 0.5 0.1
13-7 3.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.4% 26.4 17.7 6.8 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 100.0% 59.1% 40.9% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.5% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 1.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.8% 100.0% 43.0% 57.0% 2.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.0% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 3.1 0.8 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.3% 99.8% 31.9% 68.0% 4.2 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.8 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-5 12.9% 99.5% 27.0% 72.5% 5.5 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.2 2.9 2.9 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
14-6 14.1% 97.8% 22.1% 75.7% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 2.7 3.4 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 97.2%
13-7 13.1% 92.9% 17.0% 75.9% 8.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.2 3.0 2.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.9 91.5%
12-8 11.8% 82.2% 13.5% 68.7% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 2.5 2.4 1.3 0.0 2.1 79.4%
11-9 9.2% 66.4% 9.8% 56.6% 9.7 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.1 1.6 0.1 3.1 62.7%
10-10 6.7% 46.6% 7.3% 39.4% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.4 0.1 3.6 42.4%
9-11 4.2% 20.0% 4.3% 15.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 3.4 16.4%
8-12 2.7% 6.8% 4.0% 2.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5 2.9%
7-13 1.4% 2.4% 2.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.7% 1.8% 1.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 81.7% 20.5% 61.2% 6.5 3.2 4.8 6.3 8.2 8.3 8.9 9.5 9.6 9.1 8.1 5.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3 77.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 74.0 26.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 77.8 22.2