St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.4#19
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#50
Pace74.0#63
Improvement-3.6#347

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#29
First Shot+6.8#29
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#82
Layup/Dunks+5.1#35
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#333
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#218
Freethrows+5.6#3
Improvement-3.6#359

Defense
Total Defense+8.2#14
First Shot+11.7#2
After Offensive Rebounds-3.5#354
Layups/Dunks+0.8#146
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.2#6
Freethrows+2.3#49
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.0% 3.6% 0.8%
Top 4 Seed 17.8% 20.6% 7.8%
Top 6 Seed 44.8% 49.5% 28.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.5% 92.9% 82.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.2% 91.0% 79.2%
Average Seed 6.5 6.3 7.3
.500 or above 99.0% 99.4% 97.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 98.4% 93.1%
Conference Champion 20.1% 23.1% 9.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.3% 2.6% 5.8%
First Round89.0% 91.7% 79.8%
Second Round63.7% 67.3% 51.3%
Sweet Sixteen28.0% 30.4% 19.7%
Elite Eight11.5% 12.6% 7.6%
Final Four4.7% 5.3% 2.9%
Championship Game1.8% 2.1% 0.9%
National Champion0.6% 0.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Georgetown (Away) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 8
Quad 27 - 213 - 10
Quad 37 - 020 - 10
Quad 43 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 160 Quinnipiac W 108-74 95%     1 - 0 +31.0 +17.5 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 8 15 Alabama L 96-103 58%     1 - 1 +7.5 +10.2 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 15 118 William & Mary W 93-60 93%     2 - 1 +33.1 +8.7 +20.2
  Thu, Nov 20 308 Bucknell W 97-49 99%     3 - 1 +36.6 +12.8 +20.1
  Mon, Nov 24 3 Iowa St. L 82-83 29%     3 - 2 +21.2 +22.5 -1.3
  Tue, Nov 25 27 Baylor W 96-81 56%     4 - 2 +29.8 +24.3 +5.1
  Wed, Nov 26 34 Auburn L 74-85 62%     4 - 3 +2.4 +8.9 -7.1
  Sat, Dec 6 63 Mississippi W 63-58 85%     5 - 3 +10.5 -7.9 +18.3
  Sat, Dec 13 165 Iona W 91-64 96%     6 - 3 +23.6 +8.8 +12.6
  Tue, Dec 16 115 DePaul W 79-66 93%     7 - 3 1 - 0 +13.3 +8.2 +5.0
  Sat, Dec 20 20 Kentucky L 66-78 51%     7 - 4 +4.2 +1.9 +2.3
  Tue, Dec 23 192 Harvard W 85-59 97%     8 - 4 +20.9 +12.8 +9.0
  Wed, Dec 31 99 @Georgetown W 82-74 78%    
  Sat, Jan 3 78 Providence W 90-78 88%    
  Tue, Jan 6 50 @Butler W 81-78 62%    
  Sat, Jan 10 36 @Creighton W 76-75 50%    
  Tue, Jan 13 105 Marquette W 85-70 92%    
  Sat, Jan 17 32 @Villanova L 71-72 48%    
  Tue, Jan 20 54 Seton Hall W 75-65 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 97 @Xavier W 81-73 77%    
  Wed, Jan 28 50 Butler W 84-75 80%    
  Tue, Feb 3 115 @DePaul W 79-69 82%    
  Fri, Feb 6 7 Connecticut L 71-73 43%    
  Mon, Feb 9 97 Xavier W 84-70 89%    
  Sat, Feb 14 78 @Providence W 87-81 72%    
  Wed, Feb 18 105 @Marquette W 82-73 79%    
  Sat, Feb 21 36 Creighton W 79-73 71%    
  Wed, Feb 25 7 @Connecticut L 68-76 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 32 Villanova W 74-69 69%    
  Tue, Mar 3 99 Georgetown W 85-71 89%    
  Fri, Mar 6 54 @Seton Hall W 72-68 63%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.3 6.2 5.3 2.1 0.4 20.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.3 7.0 11.0 9.8 4.4 0.7 35.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.9 7.1 3.6 0.7 0.0 21.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 4.6 3.7 1.2 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.0 5.7 9.2 13.2 15.7 16.4 14.9 10.6 6.0 2.1 0.4 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 2.1    2.0 0.1
18-2 87.6% 5.3    4.0 1.2
17-3 58.7% 6.2    3.6 2.5 0.2
16-4 28.9% 4.3    1.6 2.1 0.5 0.0
15-5 9.7% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 20.1% 20.1 12.0 6.9 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 49.6% 50.4% 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.1% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 2.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 6.0% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 3.5 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.6% 100.0% 29.5% 70.4% 4.5 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.1 1.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 14.9% 99.8% 24.7% 75.1% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 4.3 4.2 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 99.8%
15-5 16.4% 99.2% 21.9% 77.4% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.0 4.5 4.6 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
14-6 15.7% 97.1% 16.7% 80.5% 7.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.5 3.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 0.5 96.6%
13-7 13.2% 93.0% 13.6% 79.4% 8.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 3.6 3.2 1.6 0.3 0.9 91.9%
12-8 9.2% 83.1% 10.4% 72.7% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.0 1.6 81.1%
11-9 5.7% 65.5% 9.9% 55.7% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.0 0.0 2.0 61.8%
10-10 3.0% 38.5% 5.3% 33.2% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.9 35.1%
9-11 1.6% 13.4% 4.5% 8.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.4 9.3%
8-12 0.8% 4.8% 3.5% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.4%
7-13 0.3% 2.3% 2.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 90.5% 19.9% 70.6% 6.5 0.9 2.1 5.3 9.5 12.6 14.4 15.2 12.4 9.1 6.0 2.9 0.1 0.0 9.5 88.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.5 59.6 29.8 10.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 31.0 37.9 27.6 3.4