St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +17.7 20
Expected Predictive Rating +17.7 22
Pace 73.5 58
Improvement -0.6 204

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B+ 36 C+ A B+ A B+
Defense A 15 A- B A B- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 14 C 57% 191 +4.4 39
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% 265 C 38% 171 -2.1 278
Three Pointers 38% 234 C 34% 175 -1.3 229
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.3 32 C -0.2 183
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.04 137
Second Chance A- 38.2% 17 A- 1.20 22 A 0.46 7
Turnovers B+ 13.7% 22
Freethrows A 0.40 5 C+ 73% 158 A 0.29 6
Total Offense B+ +8.1 36

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 54% 81 C 10.9% 174
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots A+ 50% 4 B+ 2.0% 19
Three Pointers C 84% 185 B+ 0.2% 21
Total B 62% 52 C+ 5.4% 170

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 76 A 47% 9 -2.3 101
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 61 B- 36% 108 +1.1 276
Three Pointers 33% 358 B- 32% 81 -5.4 7
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 131 A- -6.3 13
1st FG Attempt A- 0.89 22
Second Chance C+ 28.6% 104 B 0.93 47 B 0.27 65
Turnovers A 21.3% 13
Freethrows B- 0.28 102 C+ 72% 150 B- 0.20 103
Total Defense A +9.6 15

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A- 37% 17 B- 14.0% 67
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B+ 16% 17 B- 6.7% 78
Three Pointers B+ 77% 23 A 2.7% 14
Total A 43% 7 A- 8.5% 25

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.1 16 18.6 341
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 10 0.13 49
Improvement -2.7 #313 +2.1 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Predictions by Percentile
5th 50th 95th
Predictive Rating Rank 26 20 12
Conference Record 16 - 4 18 - 2 19 - 1
Conference Finish 2 1 1
NCAA Tourney Seed 8 5 3
NCAA Tourney Finish 1st Round 2nd Round Final 4

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 1% 0%
Top 2 Seed 2% 3% 0%
Top 4 Seed 24% 26% 11%
Top 6 Seed 79% 81% 66%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 99%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99% 100% 99%
Average Seed 5.4 5.3 6.0
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 73% 77% 45%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 99%
Second Round81% 82% 75%
Sweet Sixteen38% 39% 31%
Elite Eight14% 15% 12%
Final Four5% 5% 4%
Championship Game2% 2% 1%
National Champion1% 1% 0%

Next Game: Creighton (Home) - 86.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 6
Quad 29 - 115 - 6
Quad 38 - 123 - 7
Quad 43 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 193 Quinnipiac W 108 - 74 97% +22  99% 1 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +15 A+ A- C+ A- +8 B- A- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 19 Alabama L 96 - 103 59% -4  13% 1 - 1 B +8 B+ +8 B+ A C B- +2 B+ C- F+
 Sat, Nov 15 134 William & Mary W 93 - 60 95% +15  96% 2 - 1 A+ +32 B- +4 C B- A A+ +23 A+ F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 330 Bucknell W 97 - 49 99% +17  76% 3 - 1 A+ +34 B+ +9 B+ C+ C A+ +21 A+ A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 7 Iowa St. L 82 - 83 35% -2  29% 3 - 2 A +21 A+ +20 C A+ A+ C+ +1 A+ F B-
 Tue, Nov 25 47 Baylor W 96 - 81 73% +12  99% 4 - 2 A+ +26 A+ +22 A+ A+ B+ B +4 A+ B- C+
 Wed, Nov 26 33 Auburn L 74 - 85 62% -0  45% 4 - 3 C+ +4 B- +5 D- A+ D C- -2 D F+ A
 Sat, Dec 6 73 Mississippi W 63 - 58 88% +7  89% 5 - 3 B +10 F -11 F A+ F A+ +21 A+ B A+
 Sat, Dec 13 249 Iona W 91 - 64 98% +8  78% 6 - 3 A +19 B +5 A B+ F A+ +12 A+ C C
 Tue, Dec 16 93 DePaul W 79 - 66 91% +10  95% 7 - 3 1 - 0 A- +16 B +7 B C A+ A +9 A+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 20 25 Kentucky L 66 - 78 58% -1  53% 7 - 4 C+ +4 C- -2 F A+ C B+ +6 A- D A+
 Tue, Dec 23 164 Harvard W 85 - 59 96% +10  65% 8 - 4 A +23 A +11 A- A D+ A+ +12 B A+ B+
 Wed, Dec 31 74 @Georgetown W 95 - 83 74% +6  67% 9 - 4 2 - 0 A +23 A+ +24 A A+ C+ C- -2 D B- B+
 Sat, Jan 3 64 Providence L 71 - 77 87% +5  90% 9 - 5 2 - 1 C -0 F -11 F A D+ A +11 A+ F B-
 Tue, Jan 6 78 @Butler W 84 - 70 75% +4  53% 10 - 5 3 - 1 A+ +25 A- +10 B C+ A+ A+ +14 D A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 60 @Creighton W 90 - 73 70% +13  83% 11 - 5 4 - 1 A+ +29 A+ +23 A+ C A+ A- +7 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 87 Marquette W 92 - 68 90% +11  99% 12 - 5 5 - 1 A+ +27 A +13 B- A+ A A+ +13 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 31 @Villanova W 86 - 79 50% +5  81% 13 - 5 6 - 1 A+ +25 A+ +17 B+ A- A+ A- +7 C C- A
 Tue, Jan 20 56 Seton Hall W 65 - 60 84% -4  14% 14 - 5 7 - 1 B+ +12 B- +4 F A+ A A- +8 B C+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 82 @Xavier W 88 - 83 77% -3  34% 15 - 5 8 - 1 A- +15 A- +9 C A+ A B+ +5 D+ A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 28 78 Butler W 92 - 70 89% +13  97% 16 - 5 9 - 1 A+ +27 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ C+ +1 A- A F
 Tue, Feb 3 93 @DePaul W 68 - 56 79% +4  66% 17 - 5 10 - 1 A +21 B- +4 F A+ A+ A+ +18 A+ B A+
 Fri, Feb 6 9 Connecticut W 81 - 72 54% +3  72% 18 - 5 11 - 1 A+ +26 A+ +15 A A+ A A +11 D+ A A+
 Mon, Feb 9 82 Xavier W 87 - 82 OT 89% +0  52% 19 - 5 12 - 1 B +9 C- -1 C F+ A+ A +9 A C- D+
 Sat, Feb 14 64 @Providence W 79 - 69 72% +7  90% 20 - 5 13 - 1 A +22 C- -1 F B+ A+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Feb 18 87 @Marquette W 76 - 70 78% +3  75% 21 - 5 14 - 1 A- +15 B +7 C A- B+ A- +8 A- C C
 Sat, Feb 21 60 Creighton W 84 - 72 86%
 Wed, Feb 25 9 @Connecticut L 71 - 76 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 31 Villanova W 76 - 70 71%
 Tue, Mar 3 74 Georgetown W 83 - 70 89%
 Fri, Mar 6 56 @Seton Hall W 71 - 66 67%
Totals 24 - 7 17 - 3 +18 B+ +8 A+ C B+ A +10 C C+ A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B+ C C C C 47% 30% 38% B+ C+ A- A- A B+ A C+ A A A B- B- A- 43% 25% 33% C+ A- C+ B B A B- C+ B-
1.20 57% 38% 34% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.2 .46 14% .40 73% .29 0.95 47% 36% 32% -6 0 0.89 29% 0.9 .27 21% .28 72% .28
Nov
3		 Quinnipiac A+ B+ F A+ A+ 64% 7% 29% A+ A+ A C A- C+ A+ F A+ A- A- D- B B- 42% 30% 28% B- B- C- A+ A- A+ D+ C+ C-
1.29 65% 25% 47% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.0 .43 17% .49 65% .32 0.89 46% 41% 31% -5 -1 0.89 33% 0.7 .23 26% .31 68% .21
Nov
8		 Alabama B+ B- A F B 48% 26% 26% B B+ C A+ A C A+ B- A+ B- C- D B+ B+ 39% 17% 43% B B+ B F C- F+ B+ A+ A
1.14 57% 47% 27% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.5 .38 14% .55 70% .39 1.22 63% 50% 30% +1 0 1.06 30% 1.4 .41 8% .28 64% .18
Nov
15		 William & Mary B- C+ A+ F C- 50% 10% 40% A- C A- D B- A B- D+ C+ A+ A+ A A A+ 34% 14% 52% B A+ D+ F F A+ A+ A+ A+
1.16 61% 67% 24% -2 +2 1.03 39% 0.9 .37 14% .32 68% .22 0.75 41% 29% 27% -13 +1 0.78 29% 1.5 .42 30% .21 42% .09
Nov
20		 Bucknell B+ A+ B- C- B+ 47% 13% 40% A- B+ A+ F C+ C A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 41% 17% 41% C- A+ B+ A A- A+ F A F
1.28 76% 43% 33% +9 +2 1.23 49% 0.8 .37 17% .45 75% .33 0.65 32% 25% 21% -21 +1 0.61 21% 0.9 .18 32% .42 68% .29
Nov
24		 Iowa St. A+ D- F B- C- 46% 19% 35% A C A+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ C+ A+ A+ F A+ 43% 24% 33% B- A+ F+ F F B- F F F
1.20 50% 22% 35% -6 +1 0.92 42% 1.2 .50 15% .51 77% .39 1.21 43% 25% 44% -5 0 0.92 45% 1.3 .58 16% .43 80% .35
Nov
25		 Baylor A+ C+ C- A+ A- 48% 15% 37% A+ A+ C A+ A+ B+ A F+ B+ B A+ C B+ A+ 42% 22% 36% F A+ F A+ B- C+ B+ F C
1.34 62% 38% 45% +8 +1 1.20 29% 1.9 .55 14% .36 68% .24 1.13 43% 42% 30% -7 0 0.87 51% 0.8 .39 15% .28 88% .25
Nov
26		 Auburn B- D+ F F F 44% 10% 46% A D- A+ A A+ D A+ C+ A+ C- F B F D- 49% 24% 27% B D F C F+ A D- F F
1.11 52% 20% 27% -9 +2 0.88 45% 1.3 .57 21% .53 75% .40 1.28 73% 36% 42% +10 0 1.22 48% 1.1 .52 18% .46 84% .38
Dec
6		 Mississippi F F F F F 40% 13% 48% A F A B+ A+ F A+ B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 28% 28% F A+ F+ A+ B A+ F D- F
0.88 31% 20% 21% -22 +1 0.60 39% 1.2 .47 28% .68 71% .48 0.81 55% 23% 15% -13 -1 0.74 36% 0.8 .28 28% .39 80% .31
Dec
13		 Iona B C+ A+ A A- 42% 8% 50% A- A C A B+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A A- A+ A+ 52% 21% 26% D A+ D+ B C C A+ C- A+
1.20 62% 50% 40% +7 +2 1.20 34% 1.2 .41 22% .42 84% .36 0.84 44% 31% 25% -13 +1 0.79 27% 0.9 .25 17% .11 71% .08
Dec
16		 DePaul B D+ D A+ B- 47% 12% 41% A+ B C+ C C A+ B A+ A- A A+ D- A+ A+ 36% 22% 41% C+ A+ B F C- C A+ F A+
1.13 50% 33% 43% +1 +2 1.08 29% 0.9 .26 14% .35 81% .28 0.94 38% 46% 25% -11 0 0.79 28% 1.4 .38 17% .09 100% .09
Dec
20		 Kentucky C- F+ F F F 31% 29% 40% C- F B+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F C+ A- 45% 30% 26% B+ A- F A D A+ F+ F F
0.95 46% 17% 24% -16 -2 0.67 32% 1.2 .38 17% .56 84% .47 1.13 43% 57% 33% -1 -1 0.98 48% 1.0 .48 23% .41 82% .34
Dec
23		 Harvard A D+ A+ A B 57% 2% 42% A+ A- A+ C A D+ B+ B+ A- A+ F A- A+ B- 35% 27% 38% A- B A A+ A+ B+ B C- B
1.25 53% 100% 41% +3 +4 1.15 47% 1.0 .47 18% .32 78% .25 0.87 82% 31% 22% 0 -1 1.00 19% 0.3 .06 22% .21 82% .17
Dec
31		 Georgetown A+ D F A+ A+ 29% 21% 50% C+ A A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ C- B+ D- F D- 40% 26% 34% C+ D D- A+ B- B+ D- D+ F+
1.36 50% 30% 50% +8 -1 1.17 42% 1.6 .70 16% .44 77% .34 1.19 50% 46% 47% +6 -1 1.12 39% 0.9 .33 17% .40 78% .31
Jan
3		 Providence F F C+ F F 40% 18% 42% B F A+ D A D+ A+ F+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C- A+ C- F F B- F B- F
0.95 32% 40% 17% -21 0 0.62 46% 0.9 .41 16% .59 65% .38 1.03 48% 10% 27% -14 +1 0.77 37% 1.5 .56 16% .44 75% .33
Jan
6		 Butler A- B B- A- B+ 37% 33% 30% F+ B F+ A+ C+ A+ C B C+ A+ F B+ F F 38% 27% 36% A+ D A+ A+ A+ A+ C F D-
1.18 64% 40% 39% +5 -2 1.08 20% 1.4 .29 7% .23 73% .17 0.98 71% 33% 44% +9 -1 1.18 22% 0.7 .15 29% .36 83% .30
Jan
10		 Creighton A+ B- B- A+ A+ 28% 33% 39% D- A+ B F C A+ A D+ B+ A- D C D- D+ 27% 20% 53% B+ C- A+ A+ A+ C- F+ F F
1.34 60% 39% 57% +14 -2 1.26 33% 0.8 .28 9% .29 67% .20 1.09 69% 40% 38% +7 -1 1.14 7% 0.0 .00 13% .34 85% .29
Jan
13		 Marquette A B- A+ F C+ 54% 16% 30% A- B- A A A+ A A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ F D+ C- 64% 5% 32% F D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A- F
1.23 61% 56% 24% 0 +2 1.05 41% 1.2 .47 16% .38 88% .34 0.91 57% 50% 36% +1 +4 1.11 21% 0.4 .09 25% .49 63% .31
Jan
17		 Villanova A+ B+ C B- B+ 45% 27% 29% B- B+ B+ B+ A- A+ A+ C- A+ A- A- D- F C- 28% 20% 52% B+ C A+ F C- A F D F
1.21 64% 38% 36% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.1 .39 13% .50 68% .34 1.11 54% 44% 42% +6 -1 1.13 27% 1.4 .38 20% .42 75% .32
Jan
20		 Seton Hall B- D+ F F F 58% 21% 21% B F A+ C+ A+ A A+ C- A+ A- A+ D+ F A 60% 12% 28% F B F A+ C+ A D- A+ B-
1.02 48% 22% 11% -16 +1 0.72 47% 1.0 .44 19% .58 70% .40 0.94 38% 40% 42% -8 +3 0.91 46% 0.7 .33 20% .39 55% .22
Jan
24		 Xavier A- D B+ B C+ 40% 32% 28% D+ C B+ A+ A+ A A- D B B+ B+ D F D+ 38% 29% 34% C D+ A+ A A+ B+ D F F
1.15 52% 44% 38% +1 -1 1.02 33% 1.2 .40 13% .35 65% .23 1.09 52% 44% 47% +6 -1 1.13 16% 0.8 .13 16% .29 84% .25
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Butler A+ A A- A+ A+ 40% 21% 38% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A B C+ A+ F F+ A 54% 13% 33% D- A- B A A F F A+ C-
1.47 71% 45% 45% +13 0 1.29 42% 1.2 .52 8% .24 79% .19 1.12 40% 50% 40% -5 +2 0.96 32% 0.9 .29 10% .53 50% .27
Feb
3		 DePaul B- F F D F 53% 13% 34% A+ F A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ 35% 26% 40% B A+ D A+ B A+ F+ D- F
1.04 32% 17% 31% -18 +2 0.70 37% 1.3 .46 11% .49 69% .34 0.85 60% 18% 24% -11 -1 0.79 34% 0.9 .31 23% .39 75% .30
Feb
6		 Connecticut A+ B- A+ D- A 48% 13% 39% A A B+ A+ A+ A A+ C A+ A A F F C- 53% 11% 36% F+ D+ A+ F A A+ A A+ A+
1.18 55% 67% 28% -2 +2 1.02 31% 1.8 .55 15% .53 71% .37 1.05 52% 80% 47% +8 +2 1.23 21% 1.5 .31 22% .22 42% .09
Feb
9		 Xavier C- B F F C- 57% 22% 20% A- C B- F F+ A+ A+ C- A+ A A+ F B+ A 45% 35% 20% C+ A B+ F C- D+ B- A+ A-
1.05 65% 25% 27% -1 +1 1.02 30% 0.4 .12 12% .56 68% .38 0.99 40% 52% 31% -4 -1 0.91 22% 1.3 .29 11% .23 53% .12
Feb
14		 Providence C- D- F F F 42% 28% 30% C- F D+ A+ B+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ 33% 33% 35% A+ A+ C A+ A+ A- D F+ F+
1.04 48% 24% 22% -14 -1 0.73 25% 1.5 .36 7% .42 70% .30 0.91 50% 22% 26% -12 -2 0.75 35% 0.8 .26 18% .39 83% .32
Feb
18		 Marquette B F A+ D+ C 38% 17% 46% C+ C B A A- B+ A+ F A+ A- B+ F+ A- B+ 45% 21% 34% A A- B+ F C C B- F+ C+
1.11 44% 63% 32% -3 0 0.98 36% 1.2 .42 18% .42 67% .28 1.02 50% 45% 28% -5 0 0.92 26% 1.2 .32 15% .27 75% .21



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.5 20.8 37.8 12.9 73.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 10.7 12.2 23.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 1.5 3.2 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 2.4 13.6 33.1 37.8 12.9 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 12.9    12.9
18-2 100.0% 37.8    27.1 10.7
17-3 63.0% 20.8    5.0 14.0 1.8
16-4 10.7% 1.5    0.0 0.6 0.8
15-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 73.0% 73.0 45.0 25.4 2.6



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 12.9% 100.0% 40.6% 59.4% 3.8 0.4 1.7 3.0 3.6 2.9 1.1 0.1 100.0%
18-2 37.8% 99.9% 35.2% 64.7% 5.1 0.0 0.3 2.5 8.2 13.6 10.1 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.8%
17-3 33.1% 99.6% 30.2% 69.4% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.9 9.0 11.7 7.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
16-4 13.6% 99.1% 23.4% 75.8% 6.5 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.4 4.4 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 98.9%
15-5 2.4% 97.1% 22.9% 74.2% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 96.3%
14-6 0.2% 90.4% 23.1% 67.3% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 87.5%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.6% 32.3% 67.3% 5.4 0.4 99.4%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.2% 100.0% 2.8 7.9 30.7 39.9 19.4 2.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0% 100.0% 4.4 0.3 2.3 15.1 37.8 31.9 12.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.0% 100.0% 4.7 1.3 9.0 30.4 41.2 15.9 2.2