St. John's
Big East
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#72
Expected Predictive Rating+8.1#66
Pace82.4#1
Improvement-1.5#334

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#85
First Shot+1.8#112
After Offensive Rebound+1.3#81
Layup/Dunks+6.0#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#317
Freethrows-0.5#215
Improvement-0.9#313

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#62
First Shot+3.6#71
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#106
Layups/Dunks+1.6#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#130
Freethrows+1.2#91
Improvement-0.5#265
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.5% 5.5% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 2.3% 0.3%
Average Seed 13.2 11.9 13.8
.500 or above 87.6% 98.0% 85.1%
.500 or above in Conference 4.1% 12.5% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.8% 1.7% 0.6%
First Round3.1% 4.7% 2.7%
Second Round0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 19.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b0 - 22 - 9
Quad 21 - 43 - 12
Quad 35 - 29 - 14
Quad 49 - 017 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 337   Merrimack W 97-72 96%     1 - 0 +11.6 +5.6 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2022 261   Lafayette W 83-68 92%     2 - 0 +6.9 +13.4 -5.8
  Nov 15, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. W 91-74 96%     3 - 0 +4.3 +13.7 -9.2
  Nov 17, 2022 94   Nebraska W 70-50 69%     4 - 0 +22.5 -0.3 +22.5
  Nov 21, 2022 98   Temple W 78-72 61%     5 - 0 +10.8 +1.7 +8.5
  Nov 23, 2022 75   Syracuse W 76-69 OT 52%     6 - 0 +14.0 -1.6 +15.0
  Nov 26, 2022 239   Niagara W 78-70 90%     7 - 0 +1.3 -3.8 +4.4
  Nov 29, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 95-68 99%     8 - 0 +6.0 +2.8 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2022 22   @ Iowa St. L 60-71 20%     8 - 1 +5.5 -4.7 +10.6
  Dec 07, 2022 124   DePaul W 86-67 77%     9 - 1 1 - 0 +18.8 +8.6 +9.5
  Dec 10, 2022 272   New Hampshire W 64-51 92%     10 - 1 +4.5 -11.5 +16.1
  Dec 17, 2022 140   Florida St. W 93-79 72%     11 - 1 +15.7 +16.7 -1.5
  Dec 21, 2022 62   @ Villanova L 63-78 36%     11 - 2 1 - 1 -3.8 -9.7 +6.9
  Dec 28, 2022 19   Xavier L 79-84 36%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +6.1 -1.5 +8.2
  Dec 31, 2022 41   @ Seton Hall L 66-88 28%     11 - 4 1 - 3 -8.5 +1.7 -9.8
  Jan 03, 2023 8   Marquette L 85-96 29%     11 - 5 1 - 4 +2.2 +8.8 -5.7
  Jan 07, 2023 25   @ Providence L 80-83 22%     11 - 6 1 - 5 +12.7 +5.1 +7.9
  Jan 10, 2023 86   Butler W 77-61 67%     12 - 6 2 - 5 +19.0 +3.0 +15.1
  Jan 15, 2023 6   @ Connecticut W 85-74 13%     13 - 6 3 - 5 +31.0 +13.6 +16.3
  Jan 20, 2023 62   Villanova L 49-57 57%     13 - 7 3 - 6 -2.3 -19.4 +16.7
  Jan 25, 2023 11   @ Creighton L 76-104 16%     13 - 8 3 - 7 -9.9 +7.5 -15.4
  Jan 29, 2023 186   Georgetown W 75-73 85%     14 - 8 4 - 7 -1.6 -1.9 +0.3
  Feb 01, 2023 41   Seton Hall L 72-84 48%     14 - 9 4 - 8 -4.0 +0.8 -3.9
  Feb 04, 2023 19   @ Xavier L 80-89 19%    
  Feb 07, 2023 86   @ Butler L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 25   Providence L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 14, 2023 124   @ DePaul W 81-79 57%    
  Feb 18, 2023 11   Creighton L 74-79 32%    
  Feb 22, 2023 186   @ Georgetown W 82-76 70%    
  Feb 25, 2023 6   Connecticut L 74-81 27%    
  Mar 04, 2023 8   @ Marquette L 77-88 14%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.5 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 11.0 15.6 9.1 2.2 0.1 40.3 7th
8th 1.9 13.1 15.4 6.1 0.8 0.0 37.3 8th
9th 0.6 6.6 7.1 1.5 0.1 15.8 9th
10th 1.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 3.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 2.1 10.4 22.7 27.8 22.1 10.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 81.0% 4.8% 76.2% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.0%
11-9 0.6% 38.4% 2.8% 35.6% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 36.6%
10-10 3.5% 13.1% 4.5% 8.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.0 9.0%
9-11 10.8% 4.7% 3.7% 1.0% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.3 1.0%
8-12 22.1% 3.1% 3.1% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 21.4
7-13 27.8% 2.8% 2.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 27.1
6-14 22.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 22.2
5-15 10.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 10.2
4-16 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.5% 2.8% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 96.5 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 81.0% 8.5 4.8 14.3 23.8 9.5 23.8 4.8
Lose Out 2.1% 1.7% 16.0 1.7