Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.1 286
Expected Predictive Rating -6.5 275
Pace 68.8 172
Improvement -2.7 288

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 190 D+ C- C D+ C-
Defense D- 335 D D+ F+ C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 213 D- 50% 344 -3.6 303
2 Pt. Jumpers 44% 106 C 38% 172 +1.1 117
Three Pointers 39% 219 B- 36% 112 +0.1 171
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 245 C- -2.0 243
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 252
Second Chance C 30.1% 189 C- 1.00 212 C- 0.30 199
Turnovers C 16.9% 177
Freethrows D+ 0.27 279 C 72% 190 D+ 0.20 267
Total Offense C -0.9 190

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C- 44% 265 F 17.2% 361
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 125 C+ 4.6% 158
Three Pointers C+ 87% 138 D 1.5% 313
Total C 55% 193 F 8.1% 354

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 257 D+ 62% 294 +0.2 188
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 353 C+ 37% 136 -2.7 10
Three Pointers 50% 9 D+ 36% 261 +5.9 355
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 299 D+ +2.6 285
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 291
Second Chance C 30.9% 199 D 1.14 322 D+ 0.35 289
Turnovers F+ 13.0% 352
Freethrows C 0.30 189 C+ 71% 105 C+ 0.21 167
Total Defense D- -6.1 335

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C 48% 171 D 6.9% 330
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 110 D+ 3.4% 273
Three Pointers D 89% 138 C- 0.8% 313
Total D 61% 302 D- 3.4% 335

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 269 16.5 45
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 159 0.20 279
Improvement +0.8 #147 -3.6 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 53% 25% 69%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 234 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 50% -1  30% 1 - 0 C- -2 D- -6 C F F B +4 B- D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 196 @Campbell L 82 - 91 22% -6  5% 1 - 1 D -8 D -5 F+ F C- C- -2 D- D+ C+
 Wed, Nov 12 255 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 54% +1  45% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- D+ C B+ +6 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 16 280 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 38% +3  79% 2 - 2 D -9 C +1 B- A+ F F -10 D+ D F
 Thu, Nov 20 35 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 2% -25  0% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -13 F D+ F C -1 C- B B-
 Sun, Nov 23 287 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 62% +8  97% 3 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +7 B C+ A B+ +6 B- C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 170 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 18% -14  6% 3 - 4 F -27 F -14 F B+ F F -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 342 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 78% +13  95% 4 - 4 C -1 B +6 A- C+ B- D- -7 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 236 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 29% +8  95% 5 - 4 B +9 A +13 A+ A- F D+ -4 C- C F
 Sun, Dec 14 26 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  0% 5 - 5 F -21 F -12 F B+ B F -13 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 215 Buffalo L 71 - 88 46% -10  6% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -23 D -5 D- F A+ F -19 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 171 @Toledo L 79 - 84 19% +3  59% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 C +0 F+ C- D- C- -3 A- F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 86 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 7% -6  6% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C -1 C- -1 D D B+ C+ +0 C D- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 239 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 51% +1  54% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +10 B +7 A- B F B +4 C- A+ D+
 Tue, Jan 13 180 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 39% -4  16% 6 - 9 1 - 4 D+ -7 B +7 B A+ B F -14 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 77 @Akron L 89 - 104 6% -2  42% 6 - 10 1 - 5 C- -4 A+ +19 A+ B C+ F -24 F F F+
 Tue, Jan 20 162 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 35% -10  9% 6 - 11 1 - 6 F -21 F -18 F D F D+ -4 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 273 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 59% +3  62% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C+ +2 C- -1 D- D- A+ B +4 A+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 321 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 50% -12  0% 7 - 12 2 - 7 F -27 C- -1 D- D- C- F -29 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 209 @Ohio L 71 - 91 24% -13  0% 7 - 13 2 - 8 F -20 D+ -4 C+ F A+ F -16 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 7 232 @Texas St. L 61 - 77 28% -5  19% 7 - 14 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ C+ D F -11 F C+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 171 Toledo L 79 - 90 37% -5  15% 7 - 15 2 - 9 F+ -15 C +1 F A+ A+ F -16 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 239 @Eastern Michigan W 76 - 62 29% -2  30% 8 - 15 3 - 9 B+ +13 B+ +9 F+ A+ A+ B+ +5 C B- F
 Tue, Feb 17 77 Akron L 73 - 90 14% -13  1% 8 - 16 3 - 10 D- -12 C- -1 B- F A F -12 F+ A+ F
 Sat, Feb 21 273 @Central Michigan L 75 - 79 37%
 Tue, Feb 24 162 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 18%
 Fri, Feb 27 86 Miami (OH) L 77 - 88 16%
 Tue, Mar 3 314 Ball St. W 73 - 68 69%
 Fri, Mar 6 144 @Kent St. L 76 - 87 15%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 13 -7 C -1 F C- C- D- -6 B- C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D- C B- C- 37% 44% 39% C- D+ C C- C- C D+ C D+ D- D+ C+ D+ D+ 36% 14% 50% D D C D D+ F+ C C+ C+
1.07 50% 38% 36% -2 0 0.97 30% 1.0 .30 17% .27 72% .20 1.17 62% 37% 36% +3 +1 1.09 31% 1.1 .35 13% .30 71% .19
Nov
3		 Coastal Carolina D- D+ A+ F C 38% 31% 31% C+ C F C- F F A+ A A+ B D- C+ A B- 25% 26% 49% C+ B- B F D- C+ D- A+ C
1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46 0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19
Nov
9		 Campbell D F C- C+ F 50% 25% 25% C F+ D+ F F C- A+ A A+ C- A C+ F F+ 32% 13% 55% B D- A+ F D+ C+ F C+ F
1.02 50% 36% 36% -4 0 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 19% .40 81% .32 1.13 47% 33% 42% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.6 .38 19% .63 71% .44
Nov
12		 Purdue Fort Wayne D+ C F D D- 43% 14% 43% C+ D- A- F D+ C D+ D+ D+ B+ B+ C A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% C+ A+ F B- D D- C D- C-
1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18 0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18
Nov
16		 South Dakota C A- C+ F B- 62% 15% 23% B- B- A- A A+ F F+ A D F A- F D+ D+ 28% 15% 57% C+ D+ C+ F D F B- A+ A-
1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17 1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21
Nov
20		 Ohio St. F F F F F 21% 42% 38% F F D+ D+ D+ F C- C C- C F F B- C 33% 16% 51% D- C- F A+ B B- D+ C- D+
0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19 1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30
Nov
23		 Mount St. Mary's B+ C A+ D+ B 43% 19% 38% B- B D A+ C+ A F A+ D- B+ C A+ C+ B- 41% 10% 49% D+ B- A F C+ B A F B
1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19 0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18
Nov
29		 Valparaiso F F F B- F 42% 27% 31% C- F C A+ B+ F F+ F F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F F+ F C F F F
0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14 1.29 43% 45% 48% +7 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42
Dec
3		 Southern Indiana B B- A+ B A- 49% 15% 36% B- A- F A+ C+ B- F F F D- A+ C- F F 33% 23% 44% C F A F C- F F A+ F
1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13 1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28
Dec
6		 SIU Edwardsville A D A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ C A+ A- F A- A+ A+ D+ C- D- A C 34% 21% 45% D- C- B+ F C F C+ A+ B
1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35 1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16
Dec
14		 Iowa F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A C- B+ B A+ F C- F F+ D- F F 40% 8% 52% D- F B- D+ C+ F B A+ A
0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21 1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19
Dec
20		 Buffalo D D C- C D- 35% 14% 51% C D- D+ F F A+ D- C D- F F A+ C C- 34% 8% 58% D D+ D F F F D- C- D-
1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15 1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29
Dec
30		 Toledo C F C+ B D- 36% 27% 38% F+ F+ A F C- D- C C C C- F F A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F C F D+ F A+ F
1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18 1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Miami (OH) C- D A F F+ 52% 19% 30% B+ D C+ F D B+ A- D+ B+ C+ F C- A+ C+ 43% 11% 47% D- C F A- D- A- F D+ F
1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25 1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45
Jan
10		 Eastern Michigan B A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F A- B+ C B F A+ C A+ B D B- A+ B- 49% 6% 45% F C- A+ A+ A+ D+ A- A+ A
1.19 77% 31% 46% +9 -3 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 21% .52 74% .38 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.7 .12 17% .18 60% .11
Jan
13		 Massachusetts B D- A+ A B+ 32% 15% 53% C B A- A+ A+ B F B- F F C- C- C+ C 29% 19% 52% C+ C D+ F F F+ C- F F+
1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21 1.26 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28
Jan
17		 Akron A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% C- A+ B B B C+ D+ F D- F D C+ F F 33% 15% 53% C+ F F F F F+ A+ F A
1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16 1.53 67% 38% 55% +20 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13
Jan
20		 Bowling Green F F A+ F F 34% 15% 51% C F C F D F F+ B+ D D+ C+ F A B- 58% 6% 36% F C C+ A+ A F F B- F
0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19 1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32
Jan
24		 Central Michigan C- D- F+ D F 50% 15% 35% B- D- D C- D- A+ A+ C A+ B C A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 47% F A+ C- F D- D+ F D- F
1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38 0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33
Jan
27		 Northern Illinois C- F F C+ D- 34% 17% 49% D+ D- A F D- C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 36% 8% 56% D+ F F D+ F F A+ A- A+
1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44 1.40 50% 75% 50% +14 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12
Feb
3		 Ohio D+ D F A+ C+ 52% 21% 27% B- C+ F D- F A+ A F F F F D- F F 35% 8% 58% F F D+ F F D- D F F
1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16 1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas St. D- F A- B- F+ 40% 22% 38% D+ F+ C+ C+ C+ D F A+ F F F F+ F F 36% 32% 32% B F B+ D C+ D- A F B+
0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10 1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17
Feb
11		 Toledo C F C+ D F 28% 31% 41% F F D+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A- F D+ F F F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F B+ F F A+ F+
1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23 1.31 62% 75% 47% +15 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27
Feb
14		 Eastern Michigan B+ F F A+ F 54% 19% 27% B F+ A A+ A+ A+ A A A+ B+ C- A+ F C 38% 28% 34% C C A+ F B- F A A+ A+
1.18 31% 22% 54% -10 +1 0.85 39% 1.3 .50 11% .40 83% .33 0.96 60% 13% 44% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .22 12% .16 56% .09
Feb
17		 Akron C- A+ F A+ B+ 20% 35% 45% F B- F F+ F A F+ B D F D A+ F D- 49% 9% 42% F F+ D- A+ A+ F C C+ C
1.08 82% 21% 44% +6 -3 1.07 17% 0.8 .14 13% .22 77% .17 1.33 67% 0% 48% +9 +2 1.25 38% 0.8 .29 10% .26 75% .20



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 1.4 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 5.3 8.1 0.6 14.0 9th
10th 0.4 13.8 2.3 0.0 16.6 10th
11th 6.8 10.9 0.2 17.9 11th
12th 20.8 3.0 0.0 23.8 12th
13th 13.0 10.4 0.1 23.5 13th
Total 13.0 38.4 33.1 12.9 2.4 0.2 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10 0.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.0 0.0 0.2
7-11 2.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
6-12 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
5-13 33.1% 33.1
4-14 38.4% 38.4
3-15 13.0% 13.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 13.0%