Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.5 #258
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #247
Pace 69.0 #180
Improvement +0.4 #157

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #201 C C D D+ C-
Defense #305 C- D F C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #215 1.05 #297 -2.8 #281
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #113 0.81 #108 +1.8 #89
Three Pointers 39% #216 1.07 #113 +0.1 #183
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #203 -0.9 #202
Freethrows 15.5 #271 74% #139 11.5 #253
Second Chance 31.2% #163 1.00 #233 0.31 #187
Turnovers 18.3% #295
Total Offense -1.2 #201

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.24 #281 +0.7 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #341 0.79 #224 +2.1 #40
Three Pointers 51% #10 1.00 #158 -4.5 #335
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #237 -1.7 #238
Freethrows 16.9 #166 71% #95 12.0 #145
Second Chance 31.2% #204 1.19 #333 0.37 #302
Turnovers 13.3% #337
Total Defense -4.3 #305

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.0% #255 1.1% #273
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.8% #191 2.2% #224
Possession Length 18.2 #269 16.4 #41
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #119 0.21 #296
Improvement +1.5 #98 -1.1 #257

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.6 14.0
.500 or above 2.0% 2.5% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 2.9% 3.6% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.8% 16.1% 48.5%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Central Michigan (Home) - 76.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 31 - 72 - 13
Quad 49 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 252 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 59% -1  1 - 0 -3 -5 C F F +1 C+ F A-
 Sun, Nov 9 190 @Campbell L 82 - 91 26% -6  1 - 1 -8 -2 D- F D -5 F D+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 220 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 54% +1  2 - 1 +5 -0 D- D C- +5 A+ C- F
 Sun, Nov 16 291 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 46% +3  2 - 2 -9 +1 B A+ F -11 C F F
 Thu, Nov 20 29 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 3% -25  2 - 3 -16 -11 F C- F -4 C- B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 282 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 66% +8  3 - 3 +13 +10 B- C+ A+ +4 C+ C+ A
 Sat, Nov 29 170 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 24% -14  3 - 4 -27 -11 F A- F -19 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 324 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 76% +13  4 - 4 +1 +8 A- B+ C+ -8 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 263 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 39% +8  5 - 4 +7 +15 A+ B+ F -7 C- C F
 Sun, Dec 14 23 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  5 - 5 -20 -7 F A- B- -17 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 200 Buffalo L 71 - 88 50% -10  5 - 6 0 - 1 -23 -3 D- F A+ -21 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 162 @Toledo L 79 - 84 23% +3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 +2 F B- F -5 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 6 91 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 9% -6  5 - 8 0 - 3 -2 +2 D D- B -3 B- F A
 Sat, Jan 10 198 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 50% +1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +12 +9 A+ B F +3 C- A+ C
 Tue, Jan 13 172 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 45% -4  6 - 9 1 - 4 -7 +11 A- A+ B -18 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 62 @Akron L 89 - 104 6% -2  6 - 10 1 - 5 -3 +21 A+ B- C+ -25 F F F
 Tue, Jan 20 130 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 33% -10  6 - 11 1 - 6 -19 -16 F D F -4 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 325 Central Michigan W 79 - 71 76%
 Tue, Jan 27 319 @Northern Illinois W 75 - 74 53%
 Tue, Feb 3 197 @Ohio L 76 - 82 28%
 Sat, Feb 7 262 @Texas St. L 71 - 74 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 162 Toledo L 79 - 81 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 198 @Eastern Michigan L 70 - 76 29%
 Tue, Feb 17 62 Akron L 78 - 89 15%
 Sat, Feb 21 325 @Central Michigan W 76 - 74 55%
 Tue, Feb 24 130 @Bowling Green L 70 - 81 17%
 Sat, Feb 28 91 Miami (OH) L 76 - 85 21%
 Tue, Mar 3 295 Ball St. W 74 - 69 68%
 Fri, Mar 6 149 @Kent St. L 79 - 88 20%
Totals 11 - 18 5 - 13 -5 -1 C C D -4 C- D F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.1 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 2.7 0.7 0.0 4.2 7th
8th 0.9 4.1 2.0 0.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.6 5.9 5.6 0.5 12.6 9th
10th 0.4 6.5 9.7 2.0 0.1 18.7 10th
11th 0.4 6.3 12.6 4.1 0.2 23.6 11th
12th 0.3 4.6 10.1 3.6 0.2 18.7 12th
13th 0.5 3.4 5.7 2.1 0.2 11.8 13th
Total 0.5 3.7 10.7 18.8 23.5 20.8 12.8 6.4 2.2 0.6 0.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.1
10-8 0.6% 3.4% 3.4% 14.0 0.0 0.6
9-9 2.2% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 2.2
8-10 6.4% 1.3% 1.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 6.3
7-11 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
6-12 20.8% 20.8
5-13 23.5% 23.5
4-14 18.8% 18.8
3-15 10.7% 10.7
2-16 3.7% 3.7
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.5 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%