Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 288
Expected Predictive Rating -6.8 274
Pace 69.0 175
Improvement -4.4 337

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #210 C- C- C- D+ C-
Defense D #330 D+ D D- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 197 51% 328 -3.0 288
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 131 40% 119 +1.1 113
Three Pointers 39% 215 35% 130 -0.2 186
1st FG Attempt 0.98 232 -2.0 232
Second Chance 30.5% 183 0.96 278 0.29 215
Turnovers 17.7% 229
Freethrows 0.28 277 71% 226 0.20 276
Total Offense -1.6 210

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 280 62% 294 +0.4 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 351 39% 239 +2.3 22
Three Pointers 51% 8 35% 222 -5.7 353
1st FG Attempt 1.08 278 -2.9 278
Second Chance 32.0% 240 1.16 333 0.37 311
Turnovers 13.4% 341
Freethrows 0.30 182 72% 162 0.22 170
Total Defense -5.9 330

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.3 233 +0.6 282
Shot Type Accuracy -1.7 227 +2.2 271
Possession Length 18.1 256 16.5 46
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 148 0.20 285
Improvement -0.3 #203 -4.1 #348

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 60.5% 41.6% 70.9%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Home) - 35.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 48 - 79 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 237 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 50% -1  30% 1 - 0 C- -2 D- -7 C F F B +4 B- D- B-
 Sun, Nov 9 191 @Campbell L 82 - 91 21% -6  5% 1 - 1 D -8 D -6 F+ F D+ C -1 D D+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 241 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 50% +1  45% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- D+ C+ B+ +6 A+ D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 275 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 36% +3  79% 2 - 2 D -9 C +1 B- A+ F F+ -10 D+ D F
 Thu, Nov 20 39 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 2% -25  0% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -14 F D F C -1 D+ B B-
 Sun, Nov 23 290 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 62% +8  97% 3 - 3 B+ +12 B +7 B C+ A B+ +6 C+ C+ B+
 Sat, Nov 29 154 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 16% -14  6% 3 - 4 F -26 F -13 F B+ F F -15 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 343 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 76% +13  95% 4 - 4 C -1 B +6 A- B- B- D- -8 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 242 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 29% +8  95% 5 - 4 B +8 A +13 A+ A- F D+ -5 C- C- F
 Sun, Dec 14 22 @Iowa L 51 - 91 1% -30  0% 5 - 5 F -20 F -11 F B+ B F -12 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 211 Buffalo L 71 - 88 44% -10  6% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -23 D -6 D- F A+ F -18 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 167 @Toledo L 79 - 84 18% +3  59% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 C +1 F+ C D C- -3 A- F D
 Tue, Jan 6 87 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 7% -6  6% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C- -2 C- -1 D D B+ C +0 C D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 233 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 48% +1  54% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +10 B +7 A- B+ F B- +4 D+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 183 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 38% -4  16% 6 - 9 1 - 4 D+ -7 B +7 B A+ B F -14 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 74 @Akron L 89 - 104 6% -2  42% 6 - 10 1 - 5 C- -4 A+ +19 A+ B C+ F -24 F F F+
 Tue, Jan 20 168 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 36% -10  9% 6 - 11 1 - 6 F -22 F -19 F D F+ D+ -4 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 296 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 62% +3  62% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C +1 D+ -3 F+ D- A+ B +4 A+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 308 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 43% -12  0% 7 - 12 2 - 7 F -26 C- -1 D- D- C- F -27 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 201 @Ohio L 71 - 91 23% -13  0% 7 - 13 2 - 8 F -20 D+ -4 C+ F A+ F -16 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 7 247 @Texas St. L 61 - 77 29% -5  19% 7 - 14 F -18 D- -7 F+ C+ D F -12 F C+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 167 Toledo L 77 - 81 36%
 Sat, Feb 14 233 @Eastern Michigan L 69 - 75 27%
 Tue, Feb 17 74 Akron L 76 - 88 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 296 @Central Michigan L 75 - 78 40%
 Tue, Feb 24 168 @Bowling Green L 71 - 81 18%
 Fri, Feb 27 87 Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 16%
 Tue, Mar 3 307 Ball St. W 73 - 69 66%
 Fri, Mar 6 146 @Kent St. L 74 - 85 15%
Totals 9 - 20 4 - 14 -7 C- -2 C- C- C- D -6 D+ D D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ C+ C- 38% 23% 39% C- C- C D+ C- C- D+ C- D+ D D+ C- C- D+ 35% 14% 51% D+ D+ C- D- D D- C C C
1.06 51% 40% 35% -2 0 0.98 30% 1.0 .29 18% .28 71% .20 1.17 62% 39% 35% +2 +1 1.08 32% 1.2 .37 13% .30 72% .20
Nov
3		 Coastal Carolina D- D+ A+ F C- 38% 31% 31% C+ C F C- F F A+ A+ A+ B D C+ A B 25% 26% 49% C+ B- B F D- B- F+ A+ C-
1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46 0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19
Nov
9		 Campbell D F D+ C+ F 50% 25% 25% C F+ D+ F F D+ A A A+ C A- B- F F+ 32% 13% 55% B D A+ F D+ C F C+ F
1.02 50% 36% 36% -4 0 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 19% .40 81% .32 1.13 47% 33% 42% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.6 .38 19% .63 71% .44
Nov
12		 Purdue Fort Wayne D+ C F D F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- A- F D+ C+ C- D+ C- B+ B+ C A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% C A+ F B D+ D- C D C-
1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18 0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18
Nov
16		 South Dakota C A- C+ F B- 62% 15% 23% B- B- A- A A+ F F+ A D- F+ A- F D+ D+ 28% 15% 57% C+ D+ C+ F D F B- A+ A-
1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17 1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21
Nov
20		 Ohio St. F F+ F F F 21% 42% 38% F F D+ D+ D F C- C- C- C F F B- C- 33% 16% 51% D D+ F A+ B B- C- C- D+
0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19 1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30
Nov
23		 Mount St. Mary's B C A+ D+ B- 43% 19% 38% B- B D A+ C+ A F A+ F+ B+ C A+ C+ B- 41% 10% 49% D C+ A F C+ B+ A F B
1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19 0.88 57% 0% 32% -5 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18
Nov
29		 Valparaiso F F F B- F 42% 27% 31% C- F C A+ B+ F F+ F F F A F F F 30% 24% 46% D+ F F F F C F F F
0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14 1.29 43% 45% 48% +7 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42
Dec
3		 Southern Indiana B B- A+ B+ A- 49% 15% 36% B- A- F A+ B- B- F F+ F D- A C- F F 33% 23% 44% C F A F C- F F A+ F
1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13 1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28
Dec
6		 SIU Edwardsville A D A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ C A+ A- F B+ A+ A+ D+ C- D- A- C 34% 21% 45% F+ C- B F C- F C+ A+ B
1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35 1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16
Dec
14		 Iowa F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A C B+ B A+ F C- F D- D- F F 40% 8% 52% D- F B- C- C+ F B A+ A
0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21 1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19
Dec
20		 Buffalo D D C- C D- 35% 14% 51% C D- D+ F F A+ F+ C D- F F A+ C+ C- 34% 8% 58% D C- D F F F D C- D
1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15 1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29
Dec
30		 Toledo C F C B D- 36% 27% 38% F+ F+ A F C D C C C C- F F A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F C F D F A+ F
1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18 1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Miami (OH) C- D A F F+ 52% 19% 30% B+ D C F D B+ A- D+ B C F C- A C+ 43% 11% 47% D- C F B D- B+ F C- F
1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25 1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45
Jan
10		 Eastern Michigan B A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F A- A- C+ B+ F A+ C A+ B- D B- A C+ 49% 6% 45% F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ A
1.19 77% 31% 46% +9 -3 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 21% .52 74% .38 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.7 .12 17% .18 60% .11
Jan
13		 Massachusetts B D- A+ A B+ 32% 15% 53% C- B B+ A+ A+ B F B F+ F C- C- C C- 29% 19% 52% C+ C D+ F F F+ C- F D-
1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21 1.26 60% 40% 33% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28
Jan
17		 Akron A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ B- B B C+ D F D- F D B- F F 33% 15% 53% C+ F F F F F+ A+ F A-
1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16 1.53 67% 38% 55% +20 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13
Jan
20		 Bowling Green F F A+ F F 34% 15% 51% C- F C- F D F+ F+ B+ D D+ C+ F A B- 58% 6% 36% F C B- A+ A F F B- F
0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19 1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32
Jan
24		 Central Michigan D+ D- F+ D F 50% 15% 35% B- F+ D D D- A+ A+ C- A+ B C- A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 47% F A+ C- F D- D+ F D F
1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38 0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33
Jan
27		 Northern Illinois C- F F C+ D- 34% 17% 49% D+ D- A- F D- C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 36% 8% 56% C- F F C- F F A+ A- A+
1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44 1.40 50% 75% 50% +14 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12
Feb
3		 Ohio D+ D F A+ C+ 52% 21% 27% B- C+ F D- F A+ A- F F F F D- F F 35% 8% 58% F F C- F F D- D F F
1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16 1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas St. D- F A B- F+ 40% 22% 38% D F+ C+ C+ C+ D F A+ F F F F F F 36% 32% 32% B+ F B+ D C+ D- A F B+
0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10 1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.1 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.7 2.0 0.2 2.9 8th
9th 1.2 5.2 1.5 0.0 7.9 9th
10th 0.2 6.7 4.7 0.2 11.7 10th
11th 0.0 4.3 10.5 1.2 16.1 11th
12th 2.6 15.7 4.9 0.1 23.4 12th
13th 7.3 19.0 9.9 0.5 36.7 13th
Total 7.3 21.6 30.1 23.8 11.9 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.9% 0.9
7-11 4.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-12 11.9% 11.9
5-13 23.8% 23.8
4-14 30.1% 30.1
3-15 21.6% 21.6
2-16 7.3% 7.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 7.3%