Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -6.4 275
Results Rating -6.1 259
Consistency 0.19 337
Pace 69.0 167
Improvement -0.6 213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 201 D+ C C C- C-
Defense D 316 D+ C- F+ C D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 D- 51% 332 -3.0 293
2 Pt. Jumpers 47% 78 C 38% 195 +1.3 107
Three Pointers 37% 252 C+ 35% 135 -1.3 223
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 259 D+ -2.4 264
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 272
Second Chance C 29.6% 196 C 1.03 186 C 0.30 188
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.2% 157
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 235
Turnovers C 16.8% 185
Freethrows D+ 0.28 248 C+ 73% 161 C- 0.21 224
Total Offense C- -1.3 201

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 42% 290 F 17.5% 362
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 131 C+ 4.4% 144
Three Pointers C+ 86% 146 D+ 1.3% 297
Total C- 53% 242 F 8.3% 359


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 235 D 63% 312 +0.9 213
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 350 B- 35% 81 -2.8 9
Three Pointers 49% 13 C- 35% 244 +5.0 348
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.7 303 D+ +2.3 275
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 283
Second Chance C 30.2% 176 D 1.13 307 C- 0.34 255
Turnovers from Steals F 5.9% 359
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 203
Turnovers F+ 13.1% 350
Freethrows C- 0.32 234 B- 71% 83 C 0.23 208
Total Defense D -5.1 316

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 47% 147 D 6.6% 335
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 19% 66 D+ 3.0% 294
Three Pointers D 89% 324 C 1.0% 137
Total D+ 60% 279 D- 3.3% 338

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 267 16.4 29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 157 0.20 288
Consistency 0.13 203 0.14 284
Improvement +0.1 178 -0.7 228

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 288 274 256
Results Rating Rank 283 255 237
Conference Record 4 - 14 5 - 13 6 - 12
Conference Finish 12 11 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 35% 10% 85%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Ball St. (Home) - 66.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 226 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 52% -1  30% 1 - 0 C- -2 D -6 C F F B- +3 B- D- B-
 Sun, Nov 9 195 @Campbell L 82 - 91 24% -6  5% 1 - 1 D+ -8 D -5 F+ F D+ C- -2 D- D+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 258 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 57% +1  45% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- D+ C B+ +6 A+ D D-
 Sun, Nov 16 282 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 40% +3  79% 2 - 2 D -9 C+ +2 B A+ F F -11 D+ F+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 33 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 3% -25  0% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -13 F D+ F C- -2 C- B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 285 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 64% +8  97% 3 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +8 B C+ A+ B+ +6 C+ B- B
 Sat, Nov 29 151 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 18% -14  6% 3 - 4 F -26 F -14 F B+ F F -14 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 3 338 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 80% +13  95% 4 - 4 C -1 B- +5 B+ C+ B- D -6 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 249 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 33% +8  95% 5 - 4 B- +8 A +13 A+ A- F D -5 C C- F
 Sun, Dec 14 28 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  0% 5 - 5 F -22 F -12 F B+ B F -14 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 214 Buffalo L 71 - 88 49% -10  6% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -23 D -6 D- F A+ F -19 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 153 @Toledo L 79 - 84 19% +3  59% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -2 C +0 D- C- D- C- -2 A- F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 88 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 8% -6  6% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C -2 C -0 D D B C -1 C D- A-
 Sat, Jan 10 248 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 56% +1  54% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +9 B +7 A- B F B- +3 D+ A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 202 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 46% -4  16% 6 - 9 1 - 4 D -8 B +6 B A+ B F -15 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 69 @Akron L 89 - 104 6% -2  42% 6 - 10 1 - 5 C- -4 A+ +19 A+ B+ C+ F -23 F F F
 Tue, Jan 20 166 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 39% -10  9% 6 - 11 1 - 6 F -22 F -19 F D F D+ -4 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 261 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 58% +3  62% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 D- D- A+ B +5 A+ D- D
 Tue, Jan 27 336 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 60% -12  0% 7 - 12 2 - 7 F -29 C- -2 F+ D- D+ F -30 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 219 @Ohio L 71 - 91 28% -13  0% 7 - 13 2 - 8 F -20 D+ -4 C+ F A+ F -16 F F D
 Sat, Feb 7 231 @Texas St. L 61 - 77 30% -5  19% 7 - 14 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ C+ D F -11 F C+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 153 Toledo L 79 - 90 37% -5  15% 7 - 15 2 - 9 D- -14 C +1 F A A+ F -15 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 248 @Eastern Michigan W 76 - 62 33% -2  30% 8 - 15 3 - 9 B+ +12 B+ +9 F+ A+ A B +5 C B F
 Tue, Feb 17 69 Akron L 73 - 90 14% -13  1% 8 - 16 3 - 10 D- -12 C -0 B- F A+ F -12 F+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 261 @Central Michigan L 70 - 83 36% -7  12% 8 - 17 3 - 11 F+ -16 F -12 F C- F+ D+ -3 D B- D-
 Tue, Feb 24 166 @Bowling Green W 88 - 79 20% +2  64% 9 - 17 4 - 11 B+ +11 A +12 B- C+ A+ C -1 C B+ F
 Fri, Feb 27 88 Miami (OH) L 67 - 69 18% +3  74% 9 - 18 4 - 12 C +1 D- -6 F+ B- B- A- +8 B A+ D+
 Tue, Mar 3 295 Ball St. W 71 - 67 66%
 Fri, Mar 6 159 @Kent St. L 76 - 85 19%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 13 -6 C- -1 F+ D+ C- D -5 C+ C+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C C+ D+ 38% 47% 37% C- D+ C C C C D+ C+ C- D D B- C- D+ 37% 14% 49% D D+ C D C- F+ C- B- C
1.07 51% 38% 35% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.0 .30 17% .28 73% .21 1.16 63% 35% 35% +2 +1 1.08 30% 1.1 .34 13% .32 71% .20
Nov
3		 Coastal Carolina D D+ A+ F C 38% 31% 31% C+ C F C- F F A+ A A+ B- D B- A B- 25% 26% 49% C B- B F D- B- F+ A+ C
1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46 0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19
Nov
9		 Campbell D F C- C+ F+ 50% 25% 25% C+ F+ D+ F F D+ A A- A+ C- A- C+ F F 32% 13% 55% B D- A+ F D+ B- F C+ F
1.02 50% 36% 36% -4 0 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 19% .40 81% .32 1.13 47% 33% 42% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.6 .38 19% .63 71% .44
Nov
12		 Purdue Fort Wayne D+ C F D F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- A- F D+ C D+ C- D+ B+ B+ C A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% C+ A+ F B- D D- C+ D- C
1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18 0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18
Nov
16		 South Dakota C+ A- C+ F B- 62% 15% 23% B B A- A+ A+ F F A D- F A- F D+ D+ 28% 15% 57% B- D+ C F F+ F B A+ A
1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17 1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21
Nov
20		 Ohio St. F F F F F 21% 42% 38% F F D+ D+ D+ F C- C C- C- F F B- C- 33% 16% 51% D- C- F A+ B- B- D+ D+ D+
0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19 1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30
Nov
23		 Mount St. Mary's B+ C A+ D+ B 43% 19% 38% B B D A+ C+ A+ F A+ F+ B+ C A+ C+ B- 41% 10% 49% D+ C+ A F B- B A F B-
1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19 0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18
Nov
29		 Valparaiso F F F B- F 42% 27% 31% C- F C A+ B+ F F+ F F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F F+ F C+ F F F
0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14 1.29 43% 45% 48% +6 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42
Dec
3		 Southern Indiana B- B- A+ B B+ 49% 15% 36% B- B+ F A+ C+ B- F F F D A+ C- F F 33% 23% 44% C F A+ F C F F A+ F
1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13 1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28
Dec
6		 SIU Edwardsville A D A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ C+ A+ A- F A- A+ A+ D C- D- A C 34% 21% 45% D- C B F C- F C- A C+
1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35 1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16
Dec
14		 Iowa F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A C B+ B A+ F C- F F+ D- F F 40% 8% 52% D F B- D C F B A+ A
0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21 1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19
Dec
20		 Buffalo D D C- C- F+ 35% 14% 51% C D- D+ F F A+ F+ C F+ F F A+ C D+ 34% 8% 58% D D+ D F F F D- C- D-
1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15 1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29
Dec
30		 Toledo C F B- B D 36% 27% 38% F+ D- A F C- D- C C C C- F F A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F C F D+ F A+ F
1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18 1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Miami (OH) C D A+ F D- 52% 19% 30% A- D C+ F D B A- C- B+ C F C- A+ C 43% 11% 47% F+ C F A- D- A- F D F
1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25 1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45
Jan
10		 Eastern Michigan B A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F A- B+ C B F A+ C+ A+ B- D B- A+ C+ 49% 6% 45% F D+ A+ A+ A+ C- A A+ A
1.19 77% 31% 46% +9 -3 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 21% .52 74% .38 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.7 .12 17% .18 60% .11
Jan
13		 Massachusetts B D- A+ A- B+ 32% 15% 53% C B B+ A+ A+ B F B- F F C- C- C+ C 29% 19% 52% C+ C D+ F F F+ D+ F F
1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21 1.26 60% 40% 33% 0 0 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28
Jan
17		 Akron A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ B B B+ C+ D+ F D- F D C+ F F 33% 15% 53% C+ F F F F F A+ F A
1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16 1.53 67% 38% 55% +19 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13
Jan
20		 Bowling Green F F A+ F F 34% 15% 51% C F C F D F F+ B+ D- D+ C+ F A B- 58% 6% 36% F C C+ A+ A F F B- F
0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19 1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32
Jan
24		 Central Michigan C- D- F+ D F+ 50% 15% 35% B- D- D D+ D- A+ A+ C- A+ B C A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 47% F A+ C F D- D F D F
1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38 0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33
Jan
27		 Northern Illinois C- F F C+ F+ 34% 17% 49% D+ F+ A F D- D+ A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 36% 8% 56% D+ F F D+ F F A+ B+ A+
1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44 1.40 50% 75% 50% +13 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12
Feb
3		 Ohio D+ D F A+ C+ 52% 21% 27% C+ C+ F F+ F A+ A F F F F D- F F 35% 8% 58% F F D+ F F D D- F F
1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16 1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas St. D- F A- B- F+ 40% 22% 38% D+ F+ C+ B- C+ D F A+ F F F F+ F F 36% 32% 32% B- F B+ D C+ D- A F B+
0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10 1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17
Feb
11		 Toledo C F B- D F 28% 31% 41% F F D+ A+ A A+ B A+ A- F D+ F F F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F B+ F F A+ F+
1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23 1.31 62% 75% 47% +14 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27
Feb
14		 Eastern Michigan B+ F F A+ F 54% 19% 27% B F+ A A+ A+ A A A+ A+ B C- A+ F C 38% 28% 34% C C A+ F B F A+ A+ A+
1.18 31% 22% 54% -10 +1 0.85 39% 1.3 .50 11% .40 83% .33 0.96 60% 13% 44% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .22 12% .16 56% .09
Feb
17		 Akron C A+ F A+ B+ 20% 35% 45% F B- F D- F A+ D- B+ D F D A+ F D- 49% 9% 42% F F+ D- A+ A F C B- C
1.08 82% 21% 44% +6 -3 1.07 17% 0.8 .14 13% .22 77% .17 1.33 67% 0% 48% +9 +2 1.25 38% 0.8 .29 10% .26 75% .20
Feb
21		 Central Michigan F F+ D- F F 47% 25% 27% D+ F D- A C- F+ A B+ A D+ F+ D+ A+ C- 51% 15% 34% F D B D+ B- D- F F+ F
0.94 50% 31% 21% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.4 .41 20% .42 76% .32 1.11 67% 43% 25% 0 +2 1.06 25% 1.1 .29 15% .60 76% .46
Feb
24		 Bowling Green A C+ B- A- B+ 38% 37% 25% F B- F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C D+ A+ F+ C 45% 18% 36% B- C B+ A- B+ F F A F
1.21 60% 42% 38% +4 -2 1.06 19% 1.7 .31 12% .48 87% .42 1.08 60% 10% 40% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 10% .49 66% .32
Feb
27		 Miami (OH) D- C F F F+ 46% 32% 22% D+ F+ C B B- B- A- C B+ A- F A+ A+ B+ 49% 20% 31% D+ B A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ C-
0.98 61% 25% 27% -5 -1 0.90 29% 1.0 .29 16% .35 75% .26 1.01 75% 20% 27% +1 +1 1.06 12% 1.0 .12 13% .42 60% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.5 0.5 7th
8th 3.1 3.1 8th
9th 6.1 6.1 9th
10th 21.6 3.5 25.1 10th
11th 8.1 32.2 40.4 11th
12th 15.9 5.2 21.1 12th
13th 3.8 0.0 3.8 13th
Total 27.8 59.1 13.1 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
5-13 59.1% 59.1
4-14 27.8% 27.8
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.2% 0.1% 16.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 27.8%