Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#298
Expected Predictive Rating-1.1#199
Pace65.5#272
Improvement+1.7#51

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#221
First Shot-0.3#185
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#264
Layup/Dunks-1.1#210
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#75
Freethrows-0.4#214
Improvement+1.2#59

Defense
Total Defense-5.7#328
First Shot-5.5#326
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#203
Layups/Dunks-8.5#354
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#32
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#195
Freethrows+0.6#157
Improvement+0.4#128
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 3.8% 6.5% 2.1%
.500 or above in Conference 9.5% 12.5% 7.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 25.7% 21.4% 28.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Valparaiso (Home) - 40.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 32 - 72 - 15
Quad 47 - 59 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 22   @ Michigan St. L 46-90 2%     0 - 1 -27.0 -17.1 -8.9
  Nov 22, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 61-109 2%     0 - 2 -30.4 -15.1 -10.4
  Nov 26, 2021 191   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 67-77 20%     0 - 3 -8.3 -5.9 -2.6
  Nov 27, 2021 275   Purdue Fort Wayne W 93-85 OT 45%     1 - 3 +1.9 +13.5 -11.7
  Nov 28, 2021 326   SE Louisiana W 81-77 OT 61%     2 - 3 -6.1 -2.9 -3.5
  Dec 05, 2021 201   Valparaiso L 67-69 40%    
  Dec 11, 2021 228   @ Detroit Mercy L 71-78 26%    
  Dec 20, 2021 64   @ Notre Dame L 62-80 5%    
  Dec 29, 2021 116   @ Toledo L 67-81 10%    
  Jan 01, 2022 72   Ohio L 68-79 15%    
  Jan 04, 2022 262   Eastern Michigan W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 08, 2022 302   @ Central Michigan L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 11, 2022 70   Buffalo L 73-84 16%    
  Jan 15, 2022 136   Miami (OH) L 68-74 28%    
  Jan 18, 2022 165   @ Akron L 62-72 18%    
  Jan 22, 2022 226   Bowling Green L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 25, 2022 137   @ Kent St. L 63-75 14%    
  Jan 29, 2022 213   @ Ball St. L 71-79 24%    
  Feb 01, 2022 310   Northern Illinois W 69-65 64%    
  Feb 05, 2022 72   @ Ohio L 65-82 7%    
  Feb 08, 2022 136   @ Miami (OH) L 65-77 14%    
  Feb 12, 2022 302   Central Michigan W 77-73 62%    
  Feb 15, 2022 165   Akron L 65-69 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 70   @ Buffalo L 70-87 6%    
  Feb 22, 2022 116   Toledo L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 26, 2022 226   @ Bowling Green L 70-78 26%    
  Mar 01, 2022 262   @ Eastern Michigan L 71-76 33%    
  Mar 04, 2022 213   Ball St. L 74-76 43%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mid-American Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 0.9 0.1 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.1 1.2 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.2 4.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 11.7 8th
9th 0.4 2.2 5.8 5.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 15.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.8 3.7 7.3 5.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 0.2 1.4 4.5 6.5 4.2 1.5 0.1 18.4 11th
12th 0.9 3.0 5.0 4.8 2.4 0.5 0.1 16.7 12th
Total 0.9 3.2 6.4 10.1 13.0 14.4 14.2 12.2 9.5 6.7 4.3 2.5 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 0.0%
15-5 53.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.2% 0.2
14-6 0.3% 6.5% 6.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 0.7% 4.5% 4.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.6
12-8 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 1.5
11-9 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 2.5
10-10 4.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 4.2
9-11 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.6
8-12 9.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.4
7-13 12.2% 12.2
6-14 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-15 14.4% 14.4
4-16 13.0% 13.0
3-17 10.1% 10.1
2-18 6.4% 6.4
1-19 3.2% 3.2
0-20 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%