Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.8 #279
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 #261
Pace 69.0 #174
Improvement -2.7 #295

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #200 C- C- C C- C-
Defense #324 C- D D- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #191 1.04 #315 -2.6 #274
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #129 0.78 #143 +1.0 #116
Three Pointers 39% #217 1.06 #109 +0.1 #178
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #219 -1.5 #219
Freethrows 0.28 #257 71% #233 0.20 #255
Second Chance 30.5% #184 0.95 #289 0.29 #231
Turnovers 17.5% #216
Total Offense -1.2 #200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #276 1.23 #280 +0.5 #158
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #354 0.77 #212 +2.5 #19
Three Pointers 51% #6 1.03 #206 -5.4 #350
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #262 -2.4 #264
Freethrows 0.30 #188 71% #128 0.22 #171
Second Chance 32.2% #245 1.16 #337 0.37 #318
Turnovers 13.4% #344
Total Defense -5.5 #324

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #231 1.3% #298
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.4% #217 3.3% #241
Possession Length 18.0 #255 16.4 #47
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #135 0.21 #286
Improvement +0.8 #133 -3.5 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 n/a
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 56.7% 53.4% 58.5%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas St. (Away) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 30 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 238 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 53% -1  1 - 0 -2 -5 C F F +2 B- D- B-
 Sun, Nov 9 214 @Campbell L 82 - 91 26% -6  1 - 1 -9 -4 F+ F C -4 D D+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 215 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 48% +1  2 - 1 +6 +1 D D+ C +4 A+ D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 287 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 40% +3  2 - 2 -9 +2 B- A+ F -11 C- D+ F
 Thu, Nov 20 36 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 3% -25  2 - 3 -16 -11 F D+ F -4 C- B- C+
 Sun, Nov 23 290 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 64% +8  3 - 3 +13 +10 B C+ A+ +3 C+ C+ B-
 Sat, Nov 29 159 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 18% -14  3 - 4 -26 -10 F B+ F -18 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 333 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 75% +13  4 - 4 +0 +10 A- B B -10 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 247 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 32% +8  5 - 4 +8 +15 A+ B+ F -7 C- C F
 Sun, Dec 14 21 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  5 - 5 -20 -8 F B+ B -16 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 198 Buffalo L 71 - 88 45% -10  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -3 D F A+ -21 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 162 @Toledo L 79 - 84 19% +3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -2 +3 F+ C D -5 B+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 92 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 8% -6  5 - 8 0 - 3 -2 +1 D D B+ -3 C F+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 227 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 50% +1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +10 +10 B+ B F+ +2 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 174 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 40% -4  6 - 9 1 - 4 -7 +10 B A+ B+ -17 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 64 @Akron L 89 - 104 5% -2  6 - 10 1 - 5 -3 +23 A+ B B -26 F F F
 Tue, Jan 20 148 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 33% -10  6 - 11 1 - 6 -20 -16 F D D- -5 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 293 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 64% +3  7 - 11 2 - 6 +2 +1 D- D- A+ +1 A+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 308 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 46% -12  7 - 12 2 - 7 -26 +1 D- F+ C -30 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 190 @Ohio L 71 - 91 23% -13  7 - 13 2 - 8 -19 -1 C+ F A+ -18 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 7 259 @Texas St. L 72 - 76 35%
 Wed, Feb 11 162 Toledo L 78 - 81 37%
 Sat, Feb 14 227 @Eastern Michigan L 70 - 76 29%
 Tue, Feb 17 64 Akron L 76 - 88 12%
 Sat, Feb 21 293 @Central Michigan L 75 - 77 42%
 Tue, Feb 24 148 @Bowling Green L 70 - 81 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 92 Miami (OH) L 76 - 86 19%
 Tue, Mar 3 305 Ball St. W 74 - 69 68%
 Fri, Mar 6 143 @Kent St. L 75 - 86 15%
Totals 10 - 19 4 - 14 -7 -1 C- C- C -6 C- D D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.6 2.1 0.3 3.0 8th
9th 1.3 6.1 2.0 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.2 7.6 5.0 0.2 13.0 10th
11th 0.0 5.3 11.0 1.1 0.0 17.4 11th
12th 3.4 16.1 4.4 0.1 24.1 12th
13th 5.8 16.9 8.9 0.2 31.8 13th
Total 5.8 20.3 30.6 24.6 12.9 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0% 0.0
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.9
7-11 4.8% 4.8
6-12 12.9% 12.9
5-13 24.6% 24.6
4-14 30.6% 30.6
3-15 20.3% 20.3
2-16 5.8% 5.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%