Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#282
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#237
Pace69.7#176
Improvement-2.5#323

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#221
First Shot+0.2#166
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#313
Layup/Dunks+1.0#139
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#189
Freethrows-1.6#283
Improvement+0.7#123

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#324
First Shot-0.3#175
After Offensive Rebounds-4.2#360
Layups/Dunks+2.0#110
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#355
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement-3.2#348
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.2
.500 or above 6.0% 14.7% 3.8%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 22.7% 6.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.9% 9.1% 25.2%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Toledo (Away) - 20.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 48 - 511 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 250 Coastal Carolina W 76-71 56%     1 - 0 -3.0 -3.6 +0.2
  Sun, Nov 9 252 @Campbell L 82-91 34%     1 - 1 -11.2 -1.6 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 199 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83-71 46%     2 - 1 +6.6 -0.4 +6.0
  Sun, Nov 16 289 @South Dakota L 78-83 40%     2 - 2 -8.7 +2.4 -11.2
  Thu, Nov 20 31 @Ohio St. L 58-91 3%     2 - 3 -16.3 -10.1 -5.1
  Sun, Nov 23 300 Mount St. Mary's W 83-60 66%     3 - 3 +12.5 +8.7 +4.5
  Sat, Nov 29 216 @Valparaiso L 55-84 29%     3 - 4 -29.7 -12.6 -19.3
  Wed, Dec 3 341 Southern Indiana W 88-74 78%     4 - 4 -0.4 +7.6 -8.4
  Sat, Dec 6 248 @SIU Edwardsville W 83-73 33%     5 - 4 +8.0 +13.9 -5.6
  Sun, Dec 14 18 @Iowa L 51-91 2%     5 - 5 -20.5 -7.8 -16.2
  Sat, Dec 20 194 Buffalo L 71-88 45%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -22.1 -2.4 -20.9
  Tue, Dec 30 169 @Toledo L 75-84 21%    
  Tue, Jan 6 104 @Miami (OH) L 73-87 10%    
  Sat, Jan 10 217 Eastern Michigan W 73-72 51%    
  Tue, Jan 13 163 Massachusetts L 76-79 38%    
  Sat, Jan 17 59 @Akron L 76-94 4%    
  Tue, Jan 20 117 Bowling Green L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 24 322 Central Michigan W 78-72 72%    
  Tue, Jan 27 327 @Northern Illinois W 78-77 52%    
  Tue, Feb 3 190 @Ohio L 74-82 25%    
  Wed, Feb 11 169 Toledo L 78-81 40%    
  Sat, Feb 14 217 @Eastern Michigan L 70-76 30%    
  Tue, Feb 17 59 Akron L 79-91 13%    
  Sat, Feb 21 322 @Central Michigan W 75-74 51%    
  Tue, Feb 24 117 @Bowling Green L 67-80 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 104 Miami (OH) L 76-84 24%    
  Tue, Mar 3 306 Ball St. W 74-69 67%    
  Fri, Mar 6 122 @Kent St. L 75-87 14%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.9 0.2 6.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 4.6 3.5 0.5 0.0 9.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 5.4 5.4 1.1 0.0 13.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 6.1 7.0 1.9 0.1 16.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 6.2 7.7 2.3 0.1 17.5 11th
12th 0.1 1.3 5.6 6.7 2.4 0.2 0.0 16.2 12th
13th 0.4 2.0 4.3 4.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 12.3 13th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.6 10.8 15.3 17.5 16.0 13.0 9.3 5.5 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 88.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 7.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 3.8% 3.8% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 0.5% 3.6% 3.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.2% 4.4% 4.4% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
10-8 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.2 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 5.5% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.5
8-10 9.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.2
7-11 13.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.0
6-12 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.0
5-13 17.5% 17.5
4-14 15.3% 15.3
3-15 10.8% 10.8
2-16 5.6% 5.6
1-17 2.1% 2.1
0-18 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%