Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.9 281
Expected Predictive Rating -6.4 269
Pace 69.0 167
Improvement -2.7 289

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 195 D+ C C D+ C-
Defense D 327 D+ D+ F+ C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 196 D- 49% 347 +18.9 300
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 112 C+ 39% 142 +9.0 115
Three Pointers 39% 222 C+ 35% 126 +20.7 184
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 237 D+ -2.3 258
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 264
Second Chance C 30.8% 173 C- 1.01 209 C 0.31 180
Turnovers C 17.2% 197
Freethrows D+ 0.28 270 C 72% 203 D+ 0.20 263
Total Offense C- -1.1 195

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 269 D+ 62% 292 +22.3 192
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 352 C 38% 186 +5.3 354
Three Pointers 50% 7 C- 35% 246 +26.8 11
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ +0.7 291 D+ +2.5 280
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.08 287
Second Chance C 30.8% 194 D- 1.17 342 D+ 0.36 299
Turnovers F+ 13.1% 349
Freethrows C 0.30 189 B- 71% 100 C 0.22 170
Total Defense D -5.9 327

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.2 262 16.5 48
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 161 0.20 270
Improvement +0.6 #153 -3.3 #317

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 37% 11% 41%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Akron (Home) - 14.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 235 Coastal Carolina W 76 - 71 51% -1  30% 1 - 0 C- -2 D- -6 C F F B- +4 B- D- C+
 Sun, Nov 9 191 @Campbell L 82 - 91 22% -6  5% 1 - 1 D+ -8 D -5 F+ F C- C -1 D D+ C
 Wed, Nov 12 253 Purdue Fort Wayne W 83 - 71 55% +1  45% 2 - 1 C+ +4 D+ -3 D- D+ C B+ +6 A+ D+ D-
 Sun, Nov 16 280 @South Dakota L 78 - 83 38% +3  79% 2 - 2 D -9 C +1 B- A+ F F+ -10 D+ D F
 Thu, Nov 20 38 @Ohio St. L 58 - 91 2% -25  0% 2 - 3 F+ -16 F -14 F D+ F C -1 C- B- B-
 Sun, Nov 23 289 Mount St. Mary's W 83 - 60 63% +8  97% 3 - 3 B+ +13 B+ +7 B C+ A B+ +6 C+ C+ B
 Sat, Nov 29 162 @Valparaiso L 55 - 84 18% -14  6% 3 - 4 F -26 F -13 F B+ F F -16 F F C
 Wed, Dec 3 338 Southern Indiana W 88 - 74 78% +13  95% 4 - 4 C -1 B +6 A- C+ B- D -7 F C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 236 @SIU Edwardsville W 83 - 73 29% +8  95% 5 - 4 B +9 A +13 A+ A- F D+ -4 C C F
 Sun, Dec 14 28 @Iowa L 51 - 91 2% -30  0% 5 - 5 F -22 F -12 F B B F -13 F C+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 202 Buffalo L 71 - 88 44% -10  6% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -22 D -5 D F A+ F -19 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 30 172 @Toledo L 79 - 84 19% +3  59% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C- -3 C +0 F+ C- D- C- -3 A- F D+
 Tue, Jan 6 87 @Miami (OH) L 76 - 87 7% -6  6% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C -1 C- -1 D D B+ C +0 C D- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 247 Eastern Michigan W 79 - 62 53% +1  54% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B +9 B +6 A- B F B +4 C- A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 179 Massachusetts L 82 - 85 39% -4  16% 6 - 9 1 - 4 D+ -7 B +7 B A+ B F -14 C F F+
 Sat, Jan 17 79 @Akron L 89 - 104 6% -2  42% 6 - 10 1 - 5 C- -5 A+ +19 A+ B C+ F -24 F F F+
 Tue, Jan 20 156 Bowling Green L 54 - 72 35% -10  9% 6 - 11 1 - 6 F -21 F -18 F D F+ D+ -4 C A F
 Sat, Jan 24 273 Central Michigan W 77 - 65 59% +3  62% 7 - 11 2 - 6 C+ +3 C- -2 D- D A+ B +5 A+ D- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 328 @Northern Illinois L 65 - 85 53% -12  0% 7 - 12 2 - 7 F -28 C- -1 F+ D- C- F -29 F F F
 Tue, Feb 3 210 @Ohio L 71 - 91 25% -13  0% 7 - 13 2 - 8 F -20 D+ -4 C+ F A+ F -16 F F D-
 Sat, Feb 7 233 @Texas St. L 61 - 77 28% -5  19% 7 - 14 F+ -17 D- -7 F+ C+ D F -11 F C+ D-
 Wed, Feb 11 172 Toledo L 79 - 90 38% -5  15% 7 - 15 2 - 9 F+ -15 C +1 F A+ A+ F -16 F B+ F
 Sat, Feb 14 247 @Eastern Michigan W 76 - 62 31% -2  30% 8 - 15 3 - 9 B+ +12 B+ +8 F+ A+ A B +5 C B- F
 Tue, Feb 17 79 Akron L 78 - 89 14%
 Sat, Feb 21 273 @Central Michigan L 75 - 79 36%
 Tue, Feb 24 156 @Bowling Green L 70 - 80 17%
 Fri, Feb 27 87 Miami (OH) L 77 - 87 17%
 Tue, Mar 3 313 Ball St. W 73 - 68 68%
 Fri, Mar 6 146 @Kent St. L 75 - 86 16%
Totals 10 - 19 5 - 13 -7 F -1 D- D+ C- D+ -6 C+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ C+ D+ 38% 43% 39% C- D+ C C- C C D+ C D+ D D+ C C- D+ 36% 14% 50% D+ D+ C D- D+ F+ C B- C
1.07 49% 39% 35% -2 0 0.97 31% 1.0 .31 17% .28 72% .20 1.17 62% 38% 35% +3 +1 1.08 31% 1.2 .36 13% .30 71% .20
Nov
3		 Coastal Carolina D- D+ A+ F C 38% 31% 31% C+ C F C- F F A+ A A+ B- D- C+ A B- 25% 26% 49% C+ B- B F D- C+ D- A+ C
1.01 50% 53% 27% -2 -1 0.96 16% 1.0 .16 20% .58 80% .46 0.94 62% 36% 27% -5 -2 0.89 22% 1.4 .32 17% .32 60% .19
Nov
9		 Campbell D F D+ C+ F 50% 25% 25% C F+ D+ F F C- A A A+ C A- B- F F+ 32% 13% 55% B D A+ F D+ C F C+ F
1.02 50% 36% 36% -4 0 0.95 28% 0.8 .23 19% .40 81% .32 1.13 47% 33% 42% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.6 .38 19% .63 71% .44
Nov
12		 Purdue Fort Wayne D+ C F D F+ 43% 14% 43% C+ D- A- F D+ C D+ D+ D+ B+ B+ C A+ A+ 30% 13% 57% C+ A+ F+ B D+ D- C D+ C-
1.09 60% 25% 32% -2 +1 1.00 43% 0.8 .33 20% .25 73% .18 0.94 50% 38% 23% -12 0 0.79 29% 0.9 .27 12% .24 75% .18
Nov
16		 South Dakota C A- C+ F B- 62% 15% 23% B- B- A- A A+ F F+ A D F+ A- F D+ D+ 28% 15% 57% C+ D+ C+ F D F C+ A+ A-
1.13 69% 43% 27% +5 +2 1.17 41% 1.5 .59 22% .20 82% .17 1.21 47% 50% 35% 0 0 1.02 27% 1.3 .34 4% .33 64% .21
Nov
20		 Ohio St. F F F F F 21% 42% 38% F F D+ D+ D+ F C- C C- C F F B- C- 33% 16% 51% D- C- F A+ B- B- D+ C D+
0.80 45% 27% 25% -12 -4 0.70 26% 0.9 .23 22% .27 73% .19 1.25 83% 56% 32% +10 0 1.22 47% 0.7 .33 17% .38 78% .30
Nov
23		 Mount St. Mary's B+ C A+ D+ B 43% 19% 38% B- B D A+ C+ A F A+ D- B+ C A+ C+ B- 41% 10% 49% D+ C+ A F C+ B A F B
1.22 56% 64% 32% +3 +1 1.09 24% 1.4 .33 9% .23 86% .19 0.88 57% 0% 32% -6 +2 0.94 21% 1.3 .27 25% .22 82% .18
Nov
29		 Valparaiso F F F B- F 42% 27% 31% C- F C A+ B+ F F+ F F F A+ F F F 30% 24% 46% D F F F+ F C F F F
0.85 42% 17% 36% -12 -1 0.78 31% 1.2 .37 25% .24 58% .14 1.29 43% 45% 48% +7 -1 1.13 42% 1.2 .52 15% .47 88% .42
Dec
3		 Southern Indiana B B- A+ B A- 49% 15% 36% B- A- F A+ C+ B- F F F D A+ C- F F 33% 23% 44% C F A F C- F F A+ F
1.22 62% 56% 38% +7 +1 1.19 17% 2.0 .34 14% .19 67% .13 1.02 38% 36% 43% -1 -1 0.98 20% 1.2 .24 10% .55 50% .28
Dec
6		 SIU Edwardsville A D A+ A+ A+ 27% 30% 43% D- A+ C A+ A- F A- A+ A+ D+ C- D- A C 34% 21% 45% D- C B+ F C F C+ A+ B
1.22 50% 54% 58% +18 -2 1.34 33% 1.3 .43 28% .39 89% .35 1.07 58% 42% 28% -3 0 0.95 24% 1.2 .29 7% .27 59% .16
Dec
14		 Iowa F F F F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A- C B B A+ F C- F F+ D- F F 40% 8% 52% D- F B- D+ C+ F B A+ A
0.79 38% 10% 24% -20 0 0.62 36% 0.9 .33 20% .43 50% .21 1.42 71% 50% 48% +17 +2 1.40 31% 1.1 .34 9% .29 65% .19
Dec
20		 Buffalo D D C- C D- 35% 14% 51% C D D+ F F A+ D- C D- F F A+ C C- 34% 8% 58% D C- D F F F D C- D
1.08 55% 38% 34% -1 +1 1.02 29% 0.4 .12 11% .20 75% .15 1.34 71% 25% 34% +4 +1 1.12 30% 1.5 .45 6% .39 75% .29
Dec
30		 Toledo C F C+ B D- 36% 27% 38% F+ F+ A F C- D- C C C C- F F A+ A 37% 22% 41% C- A- F C F D+ F A+ F
1.10 45% 40% 38% -2 -1 0.96 45% 0.7 .33 21% .25 71% .18 1.17 78% 55% 10% -4 0 0.94 43% 1.0 .43 14% .58 67% .39
Jan
6		 Miami (OH) C- D A F F+ 52% 19% 30% B+ D C+ F D B+ A- D+ B+ C F C- A+ C+ 43% 11% 47% D- C F A- D- B+ F C- F
1.03 54% 50% 25% -4 +1 0.96 30% 0.6 .19 15% .35 73% .25 1.18 80% 40% 27% +5 +2 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 19% .57 79% .45
Jan
10		 Eastern Michigan B A+ F+ A+ A+ 31% 38% 31% F A- B+ C B F A+ C A+ B D B- A+ B- 49% 6% 45% F C- A+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ A
1.19 77% 31% 46% +9 -3 1.14 37% 1.0 .37 21% .52 74% .38 0.94 64% 33% 26% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.7 .12 17% .18 60% .11
Jan
13		 Massachusetts B D- A+ A B+ 32% 15% 53% C B B+ A+ A+ B F B- F F C- C C C 29% 19% 52% C+ C D+ F F F+ C- F F+
1.21 53% 63% 39% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.3 .47 15% .28 75% .21 1.26 60% 40% 33% 0 -1 1.02 34% 1.8 .60 15% .35 80% .28
Jan
17		 Akron A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ B- B B C+ D F D- F D B- F F 33% 15% 53% C+ F F F F F+ A+ F A
1.31 61% 64% 48% +16 0 1.33 37% 1.1 .40 18% .25 64% .16 1.53 67% 38% 55% +20 0 1.42 41% 1.5 .62 12% .15 89% .13
Jan
20		 Bowling Green F F A+ F F 34% 15% 51% C F C- F D F+ D- B+ D D+ C+ F A B- 58% 6% 36% F C C+ A+ A F F B- F
0.81 31% 57% 25% -13 0 0.77 28% 0.8 .23 23% .25 77% .19 1.08 55% 67% 28% -3 +3 1.02 26% 0.4 .11 12% .46 70% .32
Jan
24		 Central Michigan C- D- F+ D F+ 50% 15% 35% B- D- D C- D A+ A+ C A+ B C A+ A+ A+ 39% 14% 47% F A+ C- F D- D+ F D F
1.13 52% 29% 31% -6 +2 0.93 30% 1.1 .33 10% .54 70% .38 0.96 58% 0% 17% -17 +1 0.69 29% 1.3 .39 16% .46 73% .33
Jan
27		 Northern Illinois C- F F C+ F+ 34% 17% 49% D+ F+ A F D- C- A+ A+ A+ F B- F F F 36% 8% 56% C- F F D+ F F A+ B+ A+
1.07 50% 29% 35% -4 0 0.95 42% 0.6 .25 18% .54 81% .44 1.40 50% 75% 50% +14 +1 1.32 50% 0.9 .44 15% .19 60% .12
Feb
3		 Ohio D+ D F A+ C+ 52% 21% 27% B- C+ F F+ F A+ A- F F F F D- F F 35% 8% 58% F F C- F F D- D- F F
1.03 52% 27% 50% +1 +1 1.06 21% 0.9 .18 9% .40 40% .16 1.32 72% 50% 40% +11 +1 1.27 30% 1.3 .40 13% .37 82% .30
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Texas St. D- F A- B- F+ 40% 22% 38% D+ F+ C+ C+ C+ D F A+ F F F F+ F F 36% 32% 32% B F B+ D C+ D- A F B+
0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10 1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17
Feb
11		 Toledo C F C+ D F 28% 31% 41% F F D+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ A- F D+ F F F 49% 15% 36% F F A+ F B+ F F A+ F+
1.15 40% 41% 32% -5 -2 0.87 32% 1.6 .50 12% .28 82% .23 1.31 62% 75% 47% +15 +1 1.34 14% 1.5 .21 7% .44 61% .27
Feb
14		 Eastern Michigan B+ F F A+ F 54% 19% 27% B F+ A A+ A+ A A A A+ B C- A+ F C 38% 28% 34% C+ C A+ F B- F A A+ A+
1.18 31% 22% 54% -10 +1 0.85 39% 1.3 .50 11% .40 83% .33 0.96 60% 13% 44% -1 -1 0.98 17% 1.3 .22 12% .16 56% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.6 1.6 0.3 2.6 8th
9th 4.9 10.2 2.4 0.1 17.5 9th
10th 2.6 17.1 4.5 0.1 24.3 10th
11th 0.2 12.0 9.9 0.3 22.3 11th
12th 2.8 15.4 1.7 19.9 12th
13th 8.4 4.4 0.0 12.9 13th
Total 11.4 34.3 33.6 15.5 4.4 0.7 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0% 0.0
8-10 0.7% 0.7
7-11 4.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.5
5-13 33.6% 33.6
4-14 34.3% 34.3
3-15 11.4% 11.4
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 11.4%